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Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

  • #1,381
  • Nov 10, 2015 9:20am Nov 10, 2015 9:20am
Hi G,

for similar reasons I am trading mostly vs. the CHF. Although there are no migrants at the moment, it is the largest trading partner of the Eurozone. If the Eurozone is down, so will the CHF. I chose CHF because I am more comfortable with it. The EUR is already very very very weak vs. many pairs and I find those situation dangerous. The CHF has a lot of space to fall the the SNB also wants to weaken its currency.

The the strong US fundamentals there is one point to mention that somehow the whole world forgets: the US participation rate is about its lowest level in the past 10 years. Now if the participation rate would move up to the normal levels, then the jobs reports with unemployment rate is not looking that rosy at all! So I am not living in this huge US hype. I rather stay calm with it. I already see how many retail traders are going to eliminate their accounts with those crazy USD buying positions.

All the best,

IBO
  • #1,382
  • Nov 10, 2015 9:30am Nov 10, 2015 9:30am
The Euro has fallen a lot already, so a large counter trend correction is possible before the trend continues. As always, pick entries carefully and scalp your way in.
  • #1,383
  • Nov 10, 2015 9:35am Nov 10, 2015 9:35am
Quoting IBreakOut
Hi G, for similar reasons I am trading mostly vs. the CHF. Although there are no migrants at the moment, it is the largest trading partner of the Eurozone. If the Eurozone is down, so will the CHF. I chose CHF because I am more comfortable with it. The EUR is already very very very weak vs. many pairs and I find those situation dangerous. The CHF has a lot of space to fall the the SNB also wants to weaken its currency. The the strong US fundamentals there is one point to mention that somehow the whole world forgets: the US participation rate is...
Yes, I posted the above before I saw your post IBO. The SNB must bring the Chf down if the Euro comes down. Otherwise their exports to the rest of Europe will take a large hit.
  • #1,384
  • Nov 20, 2015 9:59am Nov 20, 2015 9:59am
Hit TP on EA as I slept last night. Nice profit. I love making pips while I sleep.
  • #1,385
  • Nov 20, 2015 10:14am Nov 20, 2015 10:14am
Quoting Graviton
Hit TP on EA as I slept last night. Nice profit. I love making pips while I sleep.
As you said many times it is the best time to make money. I am the same with CHF shorts. They just exploded! :-)
  • #1,386
  • Nov 20, 2015 4:44pm Nov 20, 2015 4:44pm
I like your idea about multi lot and addon to winners, but not really sure how you think price is not the same on all timeframes,
there is only 1 price, or are you talking about the small intraday trends? in that case, you are hedging and trading both long and short
in the same pair? don't know if I got that right?
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
  • #1,387
  • Nov 20, 2015 6:30pm Nov 20, 2015 6:30pm
Graviton, I trade the nearly the same as you adding to winners. Adding and pushing with stops in profit is the key to my success.
  • #1,388
  • Nov 21, 2015 9:15am Nov 21, 2015 9:15am
Quoting IBreakOut
{quote} As you said many times it is the best time to make money. I am the same with CHF shorts. They just exploded! :-)
Yes, the SNB has to bring down the Chf to stay competitive with the Euro.
  • #1,389
  • Nov 21, 2015 9:28am Nov 21, 2015 9:28am
Quoting roughtrader
I like your idea about multi lot and addon to winners, but not really sure how you think price is not the same on all timeframes, there is only 1 price, or are you talking about the small intraday trends? in that case, you are hedging and trading both long and short in the same pair? don't know if I got that right?
Yes Roughtrader, there is only one price, and it's exactly the same on all timeframes. What I'm speaking about in multi-timeframe trading is the trend of price movements. That apparent trend depends on the frequency of sampling, so the 1 hour chart may have been moving up for several hours creating an apparent up-trend, but the daily price may have been moving down for several days, creating an apparent down trend in the price of the same pair. Both trends are equally correct, but they are in disagreement. I do not hedge, I simply wait until the trends agree to enter. I've discussed that at length and given several examples in this thread, but I'm happy to discuss it further to clear up any confusion. I simply LOVE to talk about trading trends. Thanks for the good comment. -G
  • #1,390
  • Edited 9:24pm Nov 22, 2015 5:29pm | Edited 9:24pm
Hi Gravition,

Great thread. I have some question which might been answered - to catch a monthly trend how you handle big pull back in daily chart 700-800pips or sometime even 1000+pips while you are in profit.

Thank you
  • #1,391
  • Dec 1, 2015 10:29am Dec 1, 2015 10:29am
Quoting pete.alfa
Hi Gravition, Great thread. I have some question which might been answered - to catch a monthly trend how you handle big pull back in daily chart 700-800pips or sometime even 1000+pips while you are in profit. Thank you
Hi Pete. Lots of holiday duties these days, but I'm making time for trading as I can. Typically, I'll take profits off a long trend in large chunks using my multi lot strategy. I usually don't want to risk 700 to 1000 pips of profits as anything can happen at any time in the markets. So, if a pair trends 700 to 1000 pips, I will probably already have taken half that amount off in profitable legs of the multi-lot position. I'd probably have two or three lots running when the big pull back comes and I'd try to exit with as much of that running profit as possible. I understand that all trends must come to an end, otherwise a currency would go to zero or infinity against the others. I'll repeat that because it is so important. ALL TRENDS MUST COME TO AN END. Knowing that, I try to start preparing for the end of the trend as soon as I enter the first lot of a trade, and I'm prepared for it to end at any time with no warning throughout the duration of the trade.

This has to do with efficient exits, the most difficult part of trading. In the end, we only do two simple things in trading, enter and exit. Entries are easy. Many very simple entry methods work quite well. You shouldn't need to spend more than a day or so of your trading career perfecting entries. If you have a problem with entries I'll give you a simple one that will work quite well. Exits are the difficult part of trading. Plan on spending the rest of your trading career perfecting them. If you are trading trends, always be prepared for the trend to end, as it must sooner or later, and assume that when it ends it will reverse back to near where it started, and as often as not even further.

I love discussing the challenge of making efficient exits from trades and I'm willing to go into this subject in as much detail as you like. I've already discussed it a lot in this thread, but perhaps I can state things a little differently or re-emphasize some important points to turn the lights on for someone out there. Thanks for the good question and best success. -G
  • #1,392
  • Dec 1, 2015 10:47am Dec 1, 2015 10:47am
Hi Graviton ,

You mentioned you could give a simple entry method that will work quite well, may I
request that method please .


Thank you
forfac
  • #1,393
  • Dec 1, 2015 10:54am Dec 1, 2015 10:54am
Quoting pete.alfa
Hi Gravition, Great thread. I have some question which might been answered - to catch a monthly trend how you handle big pull back in daily chart 700-800pips or sometime even 1000+pips while you are in profit. Thank you
Hi pete.alfa,

beside Gravitons great answer I would add something else too. In this thread (and in most other threads) we discuss currency pairs. And as Graviton said, without a trend change, price would go to zero or infinity. In my vocabulary there is though a big difference between currencies and other instruments. In currencies as Grav said, there is a trend change always and price often goes back to where it started. However this might be different for indices, stocks and commodities. ERU/USD might not show a tendency on a yearly chart, but S&P, Gold and Apple surely does. This gives me the indication that a monthly chart is often too long-term chart and gives too late signals for currencies, but for commodities might still be accurate.

So a 1000 pip pullback (that you mentioned) is a lot more difficult to sit through for a currency where a main trend might only go on for 2000-3000 pips and if your monthly TF signal comes 1000-1200 pips late, and you are willing to give back 1000 pips back in the end, then what are you going to keep for yourself?

Again, lets look the same example for gold. We can assume for the example that today starts a new uptrend at the price of $1068. Your long-term TF signal comes when gold is at $1200. I would not worry as much in this case, because this trade has a huge and long-term potential and there will be stronger pullback which might not affect the longer-term trend.

I wait from all of you also a comment and a discussion with arguments or agreements.

Have a great trading week!
  • #1,394
  • Dec 1, 2015 11:03am Dec 1, 2015 11:03am
Quoting forfac
Hi Graviton , You mentioned you could give a simple entry method that will work quite well, may I request that method please . Thank you forfac
Sure Forfac, here's the simplest method I know of for trend trading. Plot your charts with green for up candles and red for down candles. Only enter long when the current candle in all timeframes from 1 min to 1 month are green. Only enter short when all timeframes current candles are red. Cut losses short and let winners run and add to them reasonably and conservatively. Best success. -G
  • #1,395
  • Dec 1, 2015 11:12am Dec 1, 2015 11:12am
Quoting IBreakOut
{quote} Hi pete.alfa, beside Gravitons great answer I would add something else too. In this thread (and in most other threads) we discuss currency pairs. And as Graviton said, without a trend change, price would go to zero or infinity. In my vocabulary there is though a big difference between currencies and other instruments. In currencies as Grav said, there is a trend change always and price often goes back to where it started. However this might be different for indices, stocks and commodities. ERU/USD might not show a tendency on a yearly chart,...
Good points IBO. Look at the S&P chart or gold and you see they trend up over a very long period and may never return to previous long term lows. Look at the long term charts of currency pairs and you see that trends end and price often returns back to previous highs or lows. That means we must take our profits when we can, because as often as not, they will vanish in time. -G
  • #1,396
  • Edited 1:16pm Dec 1, 2015 12:36pm | Edited 1:16pm
Quoting Graviton
{quote} Sure Forfac, here's the simplest method I know of for trend trading. Plot your charts with green for up candles and red for down candles. Only enter long when the current candle in all timeframes from 1 min to 1 month are green. Only enter short when all timeframes current candles are red. Cut losses short and let winners run and add to them reasonably and conservatively. Best success. -G

Thank you Graviton for your explanation thats amazing , so we click through each time frame and check .
how often does these type entries occur .

Best regards,
Forfac
  • #1,397
  • Dec 1, 2015 2:46pm Dec 1, 2015 2:46pm
Quoting forfac
{quote} Thank you Graviton for your explanation thats amazing , so we click through each time frame and check . how often does these type entries occur . Best regards, Forfac
You'll probably get some entries like this just about every day. Here are some that may provide an entry today or tomorrow, longs: NJ, ACad, NCad, NChf, GCad. Shorts: EN, EA, GN. Best success. -G
  • #1,398
  • Edited 4:34am Dec 2, 2015 1:26am | Edited 4:34am
Quoting Graviton
{quote} You'll probably get some entries like this just about every day. Here are some that may provide an entry today or tomorrow, longs: NJ, ACad, NCad, NChf, GCad. Shorts: EN, EA, GN. Best success. -G
Thanks Graviton I`ll take a good look through them all.

I know youve discussed entries etc
way back in your thread but just for concise locating would you either mention your process you went through
to find these currency pairs as candidates for possible selection or point out where in this thread youve previously described
how you do this .


Best regards,
forfac
  • #1,399
  • Dec 2, 2015 9:50am Dec 2, 2015 9:50am
Quoting forfac
{quote} Thanks Graviton I`ll take a good look through them all. I know youve discussed entries etc way back in your thread but just for concise locating would you either mention your process you went through to find these currency pairs as candidates for possible selection or point out where in this thread youve previously described how you do this . Best regards, forfac

Sure Forfac. The first thing I do in the morning is a quick scan of news and the calendar for the day. I don't want to jump in and get blindsided by a developing event or announcement. Today for instance, Yellen is scheduled to speak and any indication of a change in Fed policy could cause markets to reverse violently. If they do reverse, I'll exit with the profits I have and go back in later when the waters have settled.

Second I'll give a quick look at the currency strength meter. It just helps me get oriented for the day. This is a very simple one worth a minute or two of my time first thing in the morning: http://www.livecharts.co.uk/currency-strength.php and if I want to do in depth analysis, I'll look at a more detailed one like this: http://megatrendfx.com/additional-fo...eter-indicator but I wont usually spend more than a couple minutes on that. I just want to get oriented and not get sidetracked.

By then I've slammed down a large coffee and I start checking the charts. I group my pairs by top currency, so like all the Euro currencies come first. I'll do a fresh scan first thing in the morning, then just look at interesting pairs the rest of the morning. My primary indicator these days is the 5emaX10sma. My goal is to find pairs with all the crosses either up or down. I will accept a disagreeing monthly chart, as long as price is currently moving in the direction of all the other timeframes. Then I scan down from the highest timeframe and leave the chart on the highest timeframe that disagrees with the ones above it. So if the 5 ema has crossed above the 10 sma on the monthly, weekly and daily, but not on the H4, I'll leave that pair on the H4. That makes a quick scan later in the morning easier, since I don't have to look at every pair. If the highest timeframe that disagreed was H4 or above, it's not likely to change in a couple hours. But if it was M15, I will want to look again later in the morning. I take the trades that meet my entry criteria. I cut my losses short when they go against me right away and I let my winners run and stack on more lots as described in my thread.

After a couple hours I'll go back and just scan those pairs where the highest timeframe that disagreed with those above it is small enough to have recently changed, like the M1, M5, M15 or whatever. So that scan only takes a few minutes of my time. Of course, if my money management wont allow me to take another trade, I don't have to worry over it much. Perhaps if there is a really good looking trade to take and I have a loser down 30 pips or so, I can close the loser and take the better looking trade, but one must be careful of overtrading and micro managing things too much.

I pretty much do all my entries and early exits manually. I will just let price hit TP's when things are going well and moving fast. I usually enter with a 2 to 1 reward to risk ratio, but most early exits to cut losses short are discretionary in my style of trading. Sometimes though, a pair will reverse during the night as I am sleeping and will hit a stop loss, so I will want to reduce that risk where it is reasonable to do so. Some days I'm putting pairs on and taking profits off as fast as I can. Some days I have no entries at all. Sometimes things will be going well and then just turn on me and I'll quickly exit all to protect profits already made. You can't force it. Just let it come to you. Questions? Comments? Suggestions? -G
  • #1,400
  • Dec 2, 2015 10:39am Dec 2, 2015 10:39am
Quoting Graviton
{quote} Sure Forfac. The first thing I do in the morning is a quick scan of news and the calendar for the day. I don't want to jump in and get blindsided by a developing event or announcement. Today for instance, Yellen is scheduled to speak and any indication of a change in Fed policy could cause markets to reverse violently. If they do reverse, I'll exit with the profits I have and go back in later when the waters have settled. Second I'll give a quick look at the currency strength meter. It just helps me get oriented for the day. This is a very...

Thank you Graviton ,
Thats such a detailed inspiring reply it covers so much to learn from and will serve to set me off with a solid guide to build
further my understanding and knowledge.


Regards,
Forfac.
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