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What if someone finds the Holy Grail?

  • #41
  • Nov 12, 2014 8:32pm Nov 12, 2014 8:32pm
Quoting cenetti
{quote} Gambling means your decision comes from "faith, gut feeling, whatever!" Trading means you do have an edge. If you don't know what you're doing, STOP trading and go to a casino! At least you get free drinks while losing all your money. Here you look at a monitor!!
You cannot predict the future, that's why 99.6% of traders lose money, according to official brokers stats.

I can bet you whatever you want, any day you want, that you cannot make a living off RETAIL FOREX for 1 year.

Of course, you will not accept the bet, and nobody else will, because you all know you will lose.

Nothing else to add.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #42
  • Nov 13, 2014 9:30am Nov 13, 2014 9:30am
I am not sure if the method that I created can consider a HolyGrail.

Every start of the day, I will open 2 of my account with InstaForex.
I drag my own created EA into the chart. One account for only buys trade, another account for only sells trade.
They open trades whenever the market signals trigger.
Each account will Stop trading at specified $ profit normally after run about 5 to 8 hours.

No day without profit! Each day profit $ target hit!

Can this consider a HolyGrail, daily gain is about 5%.
  • #43
  • Nov 13, 2014 10:26am Nov 13, 2014 10:26am
Quoting JomSuccess
Can this consider a HolyGrail, daily gain is about 5%.
Only if you never lose
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
  • #44
  • Nov 13, 2014 10:36am Nov 13, 2014 10:36am
Quoting MapleLeaf
{quote} Like I said many times here, The house always wins. And you know very well that Brokers are the House here. You know it very well, and you also know that you DON'T make a living trading the Retail Forex Market. That's the truth.
xcuse me but that is bs, everyone can be a winner with the right approach and mindset, depending the broker will pay out ofcourse.
brokers aren't allways the house either, there are bucket shops and there are also good brokers out there.
I know because I have been winning consistently for the last year, but it ain't easy, there is a lot of hard work to reach there.
I guess most people are not up for that. if they threat the market the same way as a casino they will lose.
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
  • #45
  • Nov 14, 2014 12:57am Nov 14, 2014 12:57am
keep looking for the holy grail or be grilled.
  • #46
  • Nov 14, 2014 1:20am Nov 14, 2014 1:20am
Quoting moneybuilder
I friend of mine trades a hedge fund and trades 1,000 to 4,200 lots on a currency pair, and no he doesn't move the market. I have read it takes upwards of 10,000 lots to move EURUSD one pip. FYI he trades with an institutional broker and has incredible small spreads. $1 mil min to open an account. It's pretty radical when trading 1,000+ lots. I'm trading 30-50 lots right now in my interactive brokers account, and it has no effect on the market. I don't intend on going any higher anytime soon though lol
Hi, 30-50 lot mean 300.000-500.000 usd? Does it delayed a lot when you buy or sell? They say that it maximum delayed for ecn is 0.3 sec, is there any chance that when you sell it turns from profit to loosen?
  • #47
  • Nov 14, 2014 1:26am Nov 14, 2014 1:26am
Quoting MapleLeaf
{quote} Like I said many times here, The house always wins. And you know very well that Brokers are the House here. You know it very well, and you also know that you DON'T make a living trading the Retail Forex Market. That's the truth.
I think Saxo bank, Dukascoppy...others Ecn brokers do put customers orders in the market. They don't trade against us, am i wrong?
  • #48
  • Nov 14, 2014 2:49am Nov 14, 2014 2:49am
there's NO END to holy grail topic. better focus on your trading system and learn how to maximize your profit.

happy trading, good luck everyone..
Let the market comes to you!
  • #49
  • Nov 19, 2014 1:58am Nov 19, 2014 1:58am
IF SOMEONE FINDS THE HOLY GRAIL!!

I assure you he will never share it, not even to a friend! LOL
  • #50
  • Dec 15, 2014 4:41am Dec 15, 2014 4:41am
Well, I thing that if someone would find the Holy Grail he wouldn't have any problems with broker.
Broker is in a win-win situation. If you have many profitable trades then they just put you on the white list and hedge against you,
so whatever you do they get profit from your commision or spread.

The problem whould be if many people have known your strategy. I know some example of german company working for the city oficials,
which created very good predictive model for traffic in that city. Germans, before they go work or back home, where in the next hour will be traffic jam,
and choose route dependently. More people start using it, the worse outcome hase become. As the result, many people started to use routes predicted
as "clean" in the next hour what led to traffic jams in that places. Therefore good model lost its predictive power.

It means that if anyone would find the Holy Grail better for him to not inform anyone about it. Everything what we can expect from other are rather
some good advices or quite good, long profitable systems than always winning robos.
Check CaterpillarFX
  • #51
  • Dec 15, 2014 7:41am Dec 15, 2014 7:41am
I believe that a trading system could be modify to approach as a 'holly grail trading system'.
A Profitable trading system (I prefer to say trading technique) perhaps could be build by combining :
(1) A trading system with 70% or more accuration
(2) A Well money management and discipline trading
(3) A lucky

And if I can 'create" a holly grail trading system, I will ask you to join with my fund managed service , and let our money makes money
Happy Trading
  • #52
  • Dec 19, 2014 3:13pm Dec 19, 2014 3:13pm
I really like the example QuantumFund presented; I think it is the primary reason why a Holy Grail is unlikely to last any significant period of time.

The problem arrives once everyone begins to use the system; when this happens, trends that once existed (and were foundational to the system) will disappear-- the nature of the market will change in order to counterbalance any unusually high period of profit. This unfortunate reality is largely due to the assumptions that were made when establishing the system.

For instance, a system that relies on technical analysis will assume that certain trends will continue; but these trends will break down the moment a large number of people discover their existence. It is also extremely unlikely that only one person in the world would find such a trend without having other competition.

The only way one could arrive at a Holy Grail and be able to present it to the public without repercussion would be if the system made absolutely no assumptions; its foundation and logic would have to be idealistic in the same way as a formal mathematical proof-- it would have to plan for all possible outcomes and leave nothing to chance or luck. Unfortunately, black swan events make such an ideal virtually impossible.
"What glory would attend the discovery..."
  • #53
  • Edited Dec 21, 2014 3:22am Dec 20, 2014 11:22pm | Edited Dec 21, 2014 3:22am
Quoting Wheathermakr
In theory.. Holy Grail is a Strat in which you cant loose.. but what if someone finds it? i mean it dosen´t need to be 100% It could be something like 95% 1:3 risk reward ratio.. would make you filthy rich in a month.. or couple.. depending how often this "Holy grail" is hit.. My question is.. how long before someone finds out about your HG-Would the broker i.e see your 2,000usd to 2mil usd in 2-3months.. and steal your strategy? Can the broker look in to your charts and trades?.. or would the banks figure it out somehow?... or could one just make...
Quoting MapleLeaf
There is no such thing as a Holy Grail in a Gambling Based Business. To make money you need to work in a real job, generating value or producing something real, there are no shortcuts to make money out of thin air. And remember that 99.6% of people lose money in FOREX. What makes you think you will be part of the 0.4%?
Quoting cenetti
{quote} Nonsense. I've had a run of 60 profitable trades in a row once. I've met traders with 100+ Show me one person who wins that many times in a row gambling !! Gambling means your decision comes from "faith, gut feeling, whatever!" Trading means you do have an edge. If you don't know what y
Quoting Jysticim
If you try hard enough everyone will find his own holygrail, then it is a matter of time.
Quoting ericnyamu
the closest you can come to having a holy grail is trading with the TREND
Quoting KV427
I really like the example QuantumFund presented; I think it is the primary reason why a Holy Grail is unlikely to last any significant period of time. The problem arrives once everyone begins to use the system; when this happens, trends that once existed (and were foundational to the system) will disappear-- the nature of the market will change in order to counterbalance any unusually high period of profit. This unfortunate reality is largely due to the assumptions that were made when establishing the system. For instance, a system that relies on...
Quoting QuantumFund
Well, I thing that if someone would find the Holy Grail he wouldn't have any problems with broker. Broker is in a win-win situation. If you have many profitable trades then they just put you on the white list and hedge against you, so whatever you do they get profit from your commision or spread. The problem whould be if many people have known your strategy. I know some example of german company working for the city oficials, which created very good predictive model for traffic in that city. Germans, before they go work or back home, where in the...
Holy grail exists.

Holy grail only exists when you approaching trading in probability instead of making trades for right, wrong, win or lose to mess with your emotions and ego.
If you have a good probability in your system, over time, over a large number of sample trades, your edge will get you the consistent gains.

Thinking in probability and executing a system in absolute discipline are both extremely difficult for typical traders. Without know this, trader looks for the holy grail in the opposite direction.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #54
  • Dec 21, 2014 3:22pm Dec 21, 2014 3:22pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
Holy grail exists. Holy grail only exists when you approaching trading in probability instead of making trades for right, wrong, win or lose to mess with your emotions and ego.

I agree that a probabilistic approach to trading is important; it is likely the best foundation to a trading system.

I just don’t understand your conviction that a permanent Holy Grail exists.

We should view a Holy Grail as a transient strategy that is consistently profitable under certain market conditions; we should not think of a Holy Grail as something that is permanently profitable after its discovery (this is not possible).

This is because every trading system will have certain foundational assumptions; the most common is the assumption that preexisting trends or probabilities will continue. But these foundational assumptions will become the system’s Achilles’ heel once the nature of the market changes; the best example of this occurs when a large number of people begin to use the system.

Like I said in a previous post:

The problem arrives once everyone begins to use the system; when this happens, trends that once existed (and were foundational to the system) will disappear-- the nature of the market will change in order to counterbalance any unusually high period of profit.

For instance, a system that relies on technical analysis will assume that certain trends will continue; but these trends will break down the moment a large number of people discover their existence.

This leads to a Holy Grail paradox: assumptions that are beneficial to a system under certain conditions will likely be detrimental to the system under alternative conditions.

Unless you can create a system without making any assumptions, a permanent Holy Grail is not possible.
But I think transient "Holy Grail(s)" are certainly possible.
"What glory would attend the discovery..."
  • #55
  • Dec 21, 2014 7:17pm Dec 21, 2014 7:17pm
Quoting KV427
{quote} I agree that a probabilistic approach to trading is important; it is likely the best foundation to a trading system. I just don’t understand your conviction that a permanent Holy Grail exists. We should view a Holy Grail as a transient strategy that is consistently profitable under certain market conditions; we should not think of a Holy Grail as something that is permanently profitable after its discovery (this is not possible). This is because every trading system will have certain foundational assumptions; the most common is the assumption...
By your sensible arguments, this means there are trading systems that do act like holy grail under favourable market condition.

Why is it not possible to create a trading system where the underlying assumption is universal to all market conditions, better still it is not dependent on whatever the market condition ? (v = u + at.......that is my underlying assumption regardless of market conditions)
  • #56
  • Dec 21, 2014 7:38pm Dec 21, 2014 7:38pm
Quoting KV427
{quote} Like I said in a previous post: The problem arrives once everyone begins to use the system; when this happens, trends that once existed (and were foundational to the system) will disappear.....
Agree.....this particular existence within the market will be blotted out becos the many who now knows of it will place trades before it is fully developed thereby preventing its existence. That explains the reasoning why the holy grail will never be revealed.
  • #57
  • Dec 21, 2014 11:51pm Dec 21, 2014 11:51pm
I think it is important to make a distinction regarding the idea of a Holy Grail.

The Transient Holy Grail: a system that is consistently profitable under certain market conditions. This system has foundational assumptions that allow for a temporary period of great profit, but the system fails when the nature of the market changes (since the foundational assumptions break down). This is realistic.

The Permanent Holy Grail: a system that is consistently profitable under all possible market conditions. The system makes no assumptions and has a foundation based in pure mathematics (no technical analysis). This is an unrealistic hypothetical (though I suppose not technically impossible).

I hear many people conflate these two ideas when they are in fact quite different. People who ignore the idea of a Holy Grail and say it’s impossible are probably thinking about a permanent Holy Grail. The other, the transient Holy Grail, is something worth researching.

Quoting skyway
Why is it not possible to create a trading system where the underlying assumption is universal to all market conditions, better still it is not dependent on whatever the market condition ? (v = u + at.......that is my underlying assumption regardless of market conditions)
Here you are talking about a permanent Holy Grail.

This is a good point. At the moment, I don’t think any of us can successfully disprove the existence of a permanent Holy Grail. (I said it was impossible in my previous post but I should not have made such an absolute statement.)

But I have presented the following as a reason why I find it unlikely (though not technically impossible):

The only way one could arrive at a <permanent> Holy Grail and be able to present it to the public without repercussion would be if the system made absolutely no assumptions; its foundation and logic would have to be idealistic in the same way as a formal mathematical proof-- it would have to plan for all possible outcomes and leave nothing to chance or luck. Unfortunately, black swan events make such an ideal virtually impossible.
"What glory would attend the discovery..."
  • #58
  • Nov 13, 2015 4:43am Nov 13, 2015 4:43am
Holy grail will never be losing .Probably broker is gonna hate you
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  • #59
  • Nov 13, 2015 11:16am Nov 13, 2015 11:16am
Never say never.
Words like "never", "always", "for 100% sure" make me personally close my trust credit to the one who say them
  • #60
  • Edited Nov 19, 2015 5:24am Nov 18, 2015 4:49pm | Edited Nov 19, 2015 5:24am
There's no 'Holy Grail' that would make you rich over night/week/month, but if you found a consistent edge in trading, I think you can be averaging 200-300% per year on small accounts with big leverage, and maybe 30-50% on large accounts with smaller leverage. Just focus on finding a consistent edge, and you'll be profitable over the long run...That's all that matters.
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