When Price is UP, buy; when Price is Down, sell short... | Page 19 | Forex Factory

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When Price is UP, buy; when Price is Down, sell short...

  • #361
  • Edited 10:12pm Nov 16, 2015 9:54pm | Edited 10:12pm
the scenario that i painted yesterday for GBPCAD in post 359 above worked out nicely. it popped straight up for 3hrs for 100 pips.

as for the GBPJPY, it had a 146 pip run up of which i caught half, this trade is still open. yes i know in 5hrs red news s coming but in the words of Old Turtle Neck, Mr Partridge (Reminiscences of a stock operator) ...it's a bull market and i don't want to lose my position.

edit: a topping pattern is forming but i'm holding, Mr. Partridge
  • #362
  • Nov 16, 2015 10:37pm Nov 16, 2015 10:37pm
red news due for GBP and EUR and later in the afternoon for NZD.
  • #363
  • Nov 16, 2015 10:47pm Nov 16, 2015 10:47pm
ok, probable scenario for NDUSD later today.

  1. ​price keeping on dropping until news release,
  2. then reverse the slide to close up for the rest of day,
  3. should this happen, then my short bias will kick in

  • #364
  • Nov 17, 2015 10:02am Nov 17, 2015 10:02am
Quoting sunshine
ok, probable scenario for NDUSD later today. ​price keeping on dropping until news release, then reverse the slide to close up for the rest of day, should this happen, then my short bias will kick in
Hi sunshine,

GbpJpy in upmove now. NzdUsd is down now. GbpCad may be ready to move. Great work. Thanks for sharing.

Bendz
  • #365
  • Nov 17, 2015 10:33am Nov 17, 2015 10:33am
Quoting Bendz
{quote} Hi sunshine, GbpJpy in upmove now. NzdUsd is down now. GbpCad may be ready to move. Great work. Thanks for sharing. Bendz
u welcome Bendz

what a surprise for me, i wasn't aware that anyone is taking me seriously.

what to look out for in GBPCAD:

See the 4hr chart below.. if 4hrs could close anywhere near where it is now or at least up, then buys will be permitted.
Attached Image
  • #366
  • Nov 17, 2015 11:22am Nov 17, 2015 11:22am
Quoting Bendz
{quote} Hi sunshine, GbpJpy in upmove now. NzdUsd is down now. GbpCad may be ready to move. Great work. Thanks for sharing. Bendz
the two Dly charts below show the current probes in GBPJPY & GBPUSD.
the GBPUSD buy entry was a BuyStop order that i placed earlier this morning.
...i reasoned that if yesterdays red down day does not follow thru then it wants to go up, so i placed a Buy Stop order probe.
the reason i chose to placed a buy stop order and not a market order was 3 fold,

  1. firstly, the Geppy was treading water and i really wanted to see some green before entering on another GBP pair.
  2. secondly, price was in a resistance zone...see the white horizontal line above price,
  3. lastly, price was and still is in a sell zone

​if today doesn't close up then i will reconsider my long bias.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY+GBPUSD Dly Tues 17Nov buys.png Size: 25 KB
  • #367
  • Nov 17, 2015 10:21pm Nov 17, 2015 10:21pm
hi impact news or red news expected for the USD a little over 3hrs from now and again later when London winds down and New York takes over.
  • #368
  • Nov 17, 2015 10:55pm Nov 17, 2015 10:55pm
a mid-week look at the Weekly charts of Cable & Geppy below

they have different trends but their current weeks bias are the same.

  1. GBPUSD have a Down Trend in place
  2. GBPJPY have an Up Trend in place
  3. but...their current weeks are the same, both bias's are up.

​

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Wkly cable+geppy wed 18Npv.png Size: 23 KB
  • #369
  • Nov 17, 2015 11:01pm Nov 17, 2015 11:01pm
intraday buy entries for the pairs are forming, consult your intraday tf's, if u think i'm deranged to buy here, then welcome...at least i'm not the only one that thinks so
  • #370
  • Nov 17, 2015 11:15pm Nov 17, 2015 11:15pm
ok, i dropped down to scalping tf'.
for those of u that prefer longer tf's or can't watch the market today, the 4hrs that will close in 45mins should be good entry.
  • #371
  • Nov 17, 2015 11:17pm Nov 17, 2015 11:17pm
up against 1st micro resistance in 5mins
  • #372
  • Nov 17, 2015 11:42pm Nov 17, 2015 11:42pm
so far 5min resistance holding
  • #373
  • Nov 18, 2015 12:05am Nov 18, 2015 12:05am
ok, bullish close in 4hrs GBPUSD, will continue up, i don't know...
if you're looking for long scalps or intraday buys...have a look at the Geppy, starting to move north now
  • #374
  • Nov 18, 2015 12:30am Nov 18, 2015 12:30am
for shorts, have a look at the W+4hr combo of theEURAUD

good areas to monitor for a reversal would be the 5020 to 5060 zone.
wait for your trade setup to complete before committing to sell

got to go now, will check in again later, God Willing.
  • #375
  • Nov 18, 2015 2:14am Nov 18, 2015 2:14am
Quoting sunshine
for shorts, have a look at the W+4hr combo of theEURAUD good areas to monitor for a reversal would be the 5020 to 5060 zone. wait for your trade setup to complete before committing to sell got to go now, will check in again later, God Willing.
Hello sunshine,

Thanks for your response. I'm reading and watching your analysis. Now on euraud. Slow movement in all pairs.
Thanks for your efforts.
Bendz
  • #376
  • Nov 18, 2015 5:41am Nov 18, 2015 5:41am
Quoting Bendz
{quote} Hello sunshine, Thanks for your response. I'm reading and watching your analysis. Now on euraud. Slow movement in all pairs. Thanks for your efforts. Bendz
u welcome and thank Bendz you for your observations and monitoring

i closed out all my long probes in GBPUSD.
GBPJPY buy probes still open but i closed one last nite.

now back to the EURAUD:

  1. i initiated a short probe, see the hourly chart below for the exact entry.
  2. if price closes below that Last Swing High (LSH) as per method then odds for successful shorts have increased,
  3. i added a trendline to the Line Chart for better structure.
  4. the 4hr close are the main deciding factor
  5. please note that the 4hr short entry is premature but i took the signal based on the hourly.
  6. edit: forgot to mention that price did enter the lower ranges of my resistance zone (as mentioned this morning). so that was an added weight to sell short.

Attached Image
  • #377
  • Nov 18, 2015 5:51am Nov 18, 2015 5:51am
i'm very tempted to short the EUR but i have already too may trades open, some short and some long
  • #378
  • Nov 18, 2015 6:01am Nov 18, 2015 6:01am
lovely short opportunity with decent entry setting up in NZDJPY
  • #379
  • Nov 18, 2015 6:59am Nov 18, 2015 6:59am
Quoting sunshine
{quote} u welcome and thank Bendz you for your observations and monitoring i closed out all my long probes in GBPUSD. GBPJPY buy probes still open but i closed one last nite. now back to the EURAUD: i initiated a short probe, see the hourly chart below for the exact entry. if price closes below that Last Swing High (LSH) as per method then odds for successful shorts have increased, i added a trendline to the Line Chart for better structure. the 4hr close are the main deciding factor please note that the 4hr short entry is premature but i took...
Hi sunshine,

Great work. NzdJpy is in a tight range. it's also ready to move down. Waiting for euraud
  • #380
  • Nov 18, 2015 9:23pm Nov 18, 2015 9:23pm
Quoting Bendz
{quote} Hi sunshine, Great work. NzdJpy is in a tight range. it's also ready to move down. Waiting for euraud
hi Bendz,

yes u were right.
the early short on EURAUD almost stopped out with that interbank sweep run-up but it eventually dropped. just as well i shorted wen i did because i would have missed that 4hr entry signal.

at the time when i posted that short alert of NZDJPY i was already in short probe at another NZD pair so i did not take it.
NZDJPY dropped over 50 pips as well before reversing. the same thing happened in NZDUSD but since i was leaving it overnite i put iin a SL with +breakeven as u can see on the 4hr hart below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD+NZDUSD 4hr thur 19Nov.png Size: 20 KB
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