Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 325 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #6,481
  • Nov 16, 2015 1:59pm Nov 16, 2015 1:59pm
Quoting dvimix
{quote} Yes, I forgot about 2:1 imbalance. I not always keep in mind all options, but I continue to train in forex tester. So I hope that in some time it will be more lighte for me. And about my picture, red and blue trendlines, did I paint them correctly?
Looks like both trendlines were correct as price was making lower lows and breaking lower. Well done! Cheers, Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,482
  • Nov 16, 2015 2:01pm Nov 16, 2015 2:01pm
Quoting dvimix
{quote} Hi mauroby! my thoughts {image} {image} but it is countertrend so it is dangerous, may be with confirmation
Yes, if daily trend ends up being out of alignment, weekly supply for shorts. Cheers
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,483
  • Nov 16, 2015 2:02pm Nov 16, 2015 2:02pm
Quoting dis01
{quote} Hello Alfonso, I've got a question regarding your NZDUSD analysis. {image} {image} {image} Monthly is clearly down, so short is the way to go, but there was no close below the DZ, so I consider this level still valid and in control. In the weekly timeframe one SZ (weak one because of the long shadow) was taken out and two DZ have been created. In the weekly DZ is also in control. Doesn't that mean that we have a long bias in the lower timeframes until we break those levels or we reach a HTF Supply Zone?
NZD/USD bias is shorts, weekly supply in control (not drawn on your chart). Weekly supply wins over Daily demand, overall downtrend. Short bias! Cheers, Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,484
  • Nov 16, 2015 2:03pm Nov 16, 2015 2:03pm
Quoting conom589
Alfonso! In video you say "previous area of supply is taken out and becoming potential demand/ It is a very important area"/ So ... {image}
We can continue buying on demand imbalances unless trend on DXY is broken on that timeframe. Cheers, Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,485
  • Nov 16, 2015 2:05pm Nov 16, 2015 2:05pm
Quoting John.
Hello Alfonso! May I ask a question about a CP nested in higher TF zone? Here is an example: WK is down and supply in control Daily is down and supply in control Can we trade on set and forget H4 supply nested in Daily supply if Daily trend is down (but H4 is not down any more)? Thanks in advance! {image} {image} {image}
Hey John,
Weekly and daily down, H4 out of alignment, shorts within Daily imbalances of supply, that's what the rules say. I see you are drawing the CP very tight, zone can be drawn wider, adding some good wiggle room would be advisable as well.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,486
  • Nov 16, 2015 2:29pm Nov 16, 2015 2:29pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Monthly supply is not in control on EURUSD, there is a tested monthly demand zone in control. Bias is shorts, shorts on all valid Daily supply zones unless Daily descending trendline is broken. Cheers, Alfonso

thanks, alfonso
  • #6,487
  • Nov 16, 2015 8:55pm Nov 16, 2015 8:55pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Monthly supply is not in control on EURUSD, there is a tested monthly demand zone in control. Bias is shorts, shorts on all valid Daily supply zones unless Daily descending trendline is broken. Cheers, Alfonso
Alfonso can you please tell me the reasons why we are allowed to short at D1(set & forget?)? I am a bit confused because of MN demand in control. Dont we have to wait for the break of Mn zone or a bigger pullback?GreetsJoe
  • #6,488
  • Nov 16, 2015 11:55pm Nov 16, 2015 11:55pm
Quoting JoeMcCool
{quote} Alfonso can you please tell me the reasons why we are allowed to short at D1(set & forget?)? I am a bit confused because of MN demand in control. Dont we have to wait for the break of Mn zone or a bigger pullback?GreetsJoe
Monthly demand goes against the trend and it's been tested, that's why! In a monthly downtrend Monthly demand is removed and supply is taken out. It's been tested, bigger penetration is tested. More aggressive trading. Else, you would have to wait ages to trade

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,489
  • Nov 17, 2015 1:35am Nov 17, 2015 1:35am
EUR/USD failed to pullback to D1 supply zone and created a new D1 SZ lower. Monthly DZ is tested and bigger picture is down. Short bias

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,490
  • Nov 17, 2015 1:36am Nov 17, 2015 1:36am
NZD/USD keeps on dropping after hitting Daily supply zone, H4 and D1 supply being formed for more shorts. Room to drop to counter-trend Weekly Demand zone. US very strong accross the board

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd.png Size: 75 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,491
  • Nov 17, 2015 1:36am Nov 17, 2015 1:36am
USD/JPY failed to pullback to D1 CP demand zone and reacted to D1 ascending trendline. Long bias. Weekly supply zone is getting closer

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.png Size: 80 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,492
  • Nov 17, 2015 3:12am Nov 17, 2015 3:12am
hi could not find the indicators on the 1st post.
  • #6,493
  • Nov 17, 2015 3:13am Nov 17, 2015 3:13am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Monthly demand goes against the trend and it's been tested, that's why! In a monthly downtrend Monthly demand is removed and supply is taken out. It's been tested, bigger penetration is tested. More aggressive trading. Else, you would have to wait ages to trade Cheers, Alfonso
Hi Alfonso! Are you talking about being more aggressive against "just once tested" or tested several times (=used up) opposing zone in control?
So if an opposing zone has been tested 1 time can we be more aggressive against such zone if trend is with us? Or the zone must be used up?
Thanks in advance for clarification.
  • #6,494
  • Nov 17, 2015 4:34am Nov 17, 2015 4:34am
Quoting forex_fairy
hi could not find the indicators on the 1st post.
As it says in the first post, you have to fill up this form in order to get the link to download them http://www.set-and-forget.com/free_webinars

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,495
  • Nov 17, 2015 4:35am Nov 17, 2015 4:35am
Quoting John.
{quote} Hi Alfonso! Are you talking about being more aggressive against "just once tested" or tested several times (=used up) opposing zone in control? So if an opposing zone has been tested 1 time can we be more aggressive against such zone if trend is with us? Or the zone must be used up? Thanks in advance for clarification.
Exactly John. Monthly is down, Monthly demand imbalance tested when it was created a few months ago, tested again recently, couldn't go higher... Aggressive shorts against a weak monthly demand. Makes sense?

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,496
  • Edited 7:45am Nov 17, 2015 6:17am | Edited 7:45am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Exactly John. Monthly is down, Monthly demand imbalance tested when it was created a few months ago, tested again recently, couldn't go higher... Aggressive shorts against a weak monthly demand. Makes sense? Cheers, Alfonso
Rule
Once it's solidly broken, you will be looking to go long at a good and fresh demand area, but don't buy into a supply zone in control until it's been clearly and solidly broken, it's higher odds and we want those odds in our favour. A zone can resist 1, 2, 3, or 10 pullbacks. Only trade when it's solidly broken

1 What does it mean "solidly broken"? "By as little as 1 pip," , "close above or below the zone" OR "a full OCHL candle above/below the zone" ?

2 Did I understand you correctly? Monthly demand is taken out (by as little as 1 pip, ). So we sell
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,497
  • Nov 17, 2015 8:49am Nov 17, 2015 8:49am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Exactly John. Monthly is down, Monthly demand imbalance tested when it was created a few months ago, tested again recently, couldn't go higher... Aggressive shorts against a weak monthly demand. Makes sense? Cheers, Alfonso
Thank you, Alfonso. But your answer is not clear for me, sorry I will ask in another way, hope you will understand my question and answer me

We can trade in more aggressive way against HTF zone in control IF:

1) that zone is against the trend and not fresh (tested 1 time)

OR

2) that zone is against the trend and used up (tested 2 or more times)

Which answer is correct?
  • #6,498
  • Nov 17, 2015 3:10pm Nov 17, 2015 3:10pm
Quoting John.
{quote} Thank you, Alfonso. But your answer is not clear for me, sorry I will ask in another way, hope you will understand my question and answer me We can trade in more aggressive way against HTF zone in control IF: 1) that zone is against the trend and not fresh (tested 1 time) OR 2) that zone is against the trend and used up (tested 2 or more times) Which answer is correct?
That's exactly what I said above Remember it's aggressive trading, there are some odds against you. It's advisable that you trade smaller lot sizes.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,499
  • Nov 17, 2015 3:11pm Nov 17, 2015 3:11pm
Quoting conom589
{quote} Rule Once it's solidly broken, you will be looking to go long at a good and fresh demand area, but don't buy into a supply zone in control until it's been clearly and solidly broken, it's higher odds and we want those odds in our favour. A zone can resist 1, 2, 3, or 10 pullbacks. Only trade when it's solidly broken 1 What does it mean "solidly broken"? "By as little as 1 pip," , "close above or below the zone" OR "a full OCHL candle above/below the zone" ? 2 Did I understand you correctly? Monthly demand is taken out (by as little as 1...
A zone is taken out if it's been overshot by as few as 1 pip. Solidly broken means that there has been a candle close on the timeframe the zone has been detected.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,500
  • Edited 9:18pm Nov 17, 2015 8:49pm | Edited 9:18pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} A zone is taken out if it's been overshot by as few as 1 pip. Solidly broken means that there has been a candle close on the timeframe the zone has been detected. Cheers, Alfonso

Thank you Sir for clarification. That's exactly what i thought
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