Is anyone here an institutional trader?

Was just trying to see if you actually knew anything.

But apparently, you don't, with the answers you gave me.

There weren't buyers at 70cents? How can you even say that? Obviously there was.

My question was, who was SELLING at that level? Logically.. it could only possibly be

1) bulls from under 69 cents (which means yield traders holding from 2009 days..),

2) and bears targeting sub 69 cents.

Oh, and the 3rd party... terrible retail traders. If there were any big money traders speculatively shorting at 70 cents, it's for only one reason... they are targeting deeper than 70 cents as a profit target. Sure, they would rather sell at 74cents (and some of them did, just recently), but there weren't many buyers at 74 cents... so they couldn't get filled anywhere close to as large of positions at 74cents as they could at 70cents.

Get it? Probably not. This is something an "institutional trader" would know.

Sorry you thought I was an asshole. Not my intent to be one. (for the benefit of other readers, apparently I was called an asshole before the member re-edited his post. At least that's what the automated email alerts indicated.)

Never said that I did know.

I never said there WEREN'T any buyers. I just wondered if it's true there were "TONS" of buyers against whom Big Money (you say) would logically (as you seem to imply) want to short. If you could point out which sentence, I would gladly take a look and will admit my embarrassment.

And my answer was, any (or both) of the two scenarios you outlined can be true, along with any scenario a junior analyst with no skin in the game can dream up. Changing sentiments are very fluid and it can be hard (not to mention, POINTLESS) to pinpoint the EXACT reason why this or that movement occurred.

They were never a factor in any way, shape, or form. They MAY be in future, but until now and for now, no.

I totally agree!

Anybody who speculates and shorts (big money or not) is obviously targeting lower levels to take profit. It would be pretty bone-headed if they were targeting higher levels.

Very authoritative knowledge (how does one KNOW this, I wonder...) By the way, it's also entirely possible that (however ludicrous it may sound) there was just ONE institutional seller at the top mopping up all the buyers.

NUMBER of buyers or sellers is not a major factor why price moves this way or that. It is the battle between the ever-changing collective wills of the buyers vs sellers that does that.

One can get the numbers right, but one can never predict changes in collective ballsy-ness.

If you say so.

That's a valid opinion of what a bank trader would know. Having been one myself, I have to respectfully disagree. The answers to the questions you asked (that dumb asshole bank traders like me are too stupid to know) are simply answers that not all institutional traders care for or even care to search for. Noise adds nothing to the bottomline.

Again, sorry again if my bluntness hurts feelings. I can't have anyone fired or transferred out in this Forum (like I would an uppity super-sensitive junior bank trader) so all I can do is apologize.

If my opinions are not congruent to your inner universes, I heartily encourage you to click on the Ignore link above my profile page.

Good luck!

subscript.

If my opinions are not congruent to your inner universes, I heartily encourage you to click on the Ignore link above my profile page.
Hi skenobi,
I been following some of your posts recently, appreciate for all your efforts to share you knowledges. And this one is the best ever, in my humble view of Pro Trader is not just about to made money, trading is like a reflections of your personality and quality of everything's.

I like the ways of your contributions, thank you SIR.

wow you gentlemen are still at it with this thread, I think I stopped contributing 20 pages ago

you are free to continue contributing. I appreciated all of your earlier responses.

@skenobi, jacobfordfx and others

thx a lot, this is just a priceless thread.

skenobi, you are sort of a mental dead ringer for mark douglas and his famous quote: you dont need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.

(now i can see you thinking...whothefock is this guy mark douglas...never heared of this guy)

He passed away recently, didn't he?

Anyways, I don't think I've ever read books on trading psychology (I'm trying real hard to recall if I have). Not because I discourage it (I'm sure they're useful to some people out there), but coz I'm paranoid that books like these might add too much color to my already-simple judgement of things.

YMMV.

yeah, he passed away...but speaking of colour, i guess a big problem is that retail taders never really come to see the "market" like it is like you did, all they ever see is a pricechart (and some derivatives), esp in forex. I dont want to promote anything but i think, that every newcomer should take a look at this tool here http://www.bookmap.com/ for educational purpose in order to just see how a market operates in realtime, the endless stream of orders coming into the market hitting the orderbook which shapes price movement. I think you can not understand todays markets erratic behavior at times if you havent seen how the liquidityproviders jump in and out of the book with the speed of light and here you can "see" it first hand (if your eyes are fast enough ) ...

Hey Skenobi i have a question for you.

In youre time as an instiution trader, what do you think is the timeframe or timeframes mostly used by the institutions?
I mean is it some sort of compound of just tick data, or are where you guys looking at M1, H1, H4 or what?
I know its a general question so it needs a general answer, meaning of course some people looked at that chart and some other at another. But what im interested in is which timeframes where the most prominent, the most talked about or the ones that got most peoples attention.

Happy trading and everything!

Hi skenobi,

i have a question regarding „risk acceptance“ (which is according to mark douglas the core of every retail trader psychological problems).

I mean, do you feel risk different now as a retail trader? As I got it, risk acceptance is not an issue for any bank trader, cause risk control is transferred to another department. Of course there are things at stake like a bonus aso, but there is no real need for risk acceptance for an institutional trader, or am I wrong?

TIA

"Mostly used"? I wouldn't know. We use all kinds, and so do I.

In the early days, maybe just M1, M5, M15, H1, D1, and the higher TFs. I don't think H4 or even H6 came into the picture until later (in my neck of the woods anyway) when more platforms supported them.

My opinion: None really noticeably more prominent when talked about. I suppose it depends on the context. If 2 daytrading institutionals talk to each other, maybe they'll use H1 for context? I dunno. For my part, I prefer not to talk about chart points; I just trade them.

In the sense that I'm now trading leveraged contracts with my own money instead of trading real money with no leverage, definitely the feeling is different.


My opinion (because for sure others will have a different view): Risk acceptance is not MUCH of an issue for bank traders, but not for the reason you state. Risk "control" is not transferred to another department. Risk is "monitored" by another department which will warn the traders if limits are approached or breached, but ultimately "control" is under the traders.

Banks hire individuals with particular personalities. "Risk takers", for lack of a better term. "Accepting risk" comes with the territory. If an employment prospect can't "accept risk", there are always other jobs.

OK thats very helpfull, thanks.
Its close to what i anticpated you to say and rhimes with what i previously thought to be the case. So youre answer pretty much confirms my prior knowledge, but nonetheless its helpfull.

Hi skenobi, on a more practical level i understand this the way that bigger players always look out to try and create a run to override the other side untill they puke out. As a banktrader, have you joined this sort of runs and how did you spoted or sensed when other players are about to sort of team up to initiate a run? For example, today i would expect some bigger player to try to create a run to the upside in the EURUSD

Not really sure about the puking part, coz nobody really knows when the puking ends, and we're only in it for quick kills.

Yes.

The signs can come in many forms... a throwaway comment in a chatroom, price stalling at the end of a mature (i.e. not new) trend in a lower timeframe, etc etc. although these signs aren't really "signs" because they're just coincidental stuff that happen before runs i.e. runs don't necessarily occur after these events.

You can only prep for such things using any of the many common breakout strategies you can find out there, including here in Forex Factory.

I have no comment to that. If there WAS a bigger player (or bigger playerS) trying to do whatever, then I guess so be it.

All I can say is that the EURUSD downtrend is still strong but currently hitting order clusters around 1.0620. If one is looking to sell on retracements, 1.0710 might be a good level, although I also think 1.0760 is a sweeter entry.

(Notice that not once I even mentioned, or even cared that, there was a presence of some big player whatever at some such level.)

\\
Been waiting for that all day, and currently buying into it...

I have a question for you though.. Do you believe in "they"? Like "they" are running stops or "they" are pushing people in/out... "they" are accumulating.. Or "they" are such C***s lol

Or do you think "they" is just a self perpetuating result of market forces... Supply/demand, and the invisible hand?

Cheers

"They" have always existed.

"They" can also be all these as well.

So the bottomline answers to the above 2 questions are Yes, and Yes.

But the more interesting question in all this is: Why does it even matter if we KNOW who "they" are when, at the end of the day, it really doesn't?

because .... they are ....



chammmppppaaaaggnes ... on the ceilinggg .....

I never said i thought it mattered, i was just interested to know your answer..

Cheers

Hi skenobi,

Nice to see you are handling all the questions today. That being said, I do not trade Forex as I am a long time institutional NYSE and CME trader. I currently work on a contract basis for one of the big 3 Investment Banks and have my own boutique size trading firm.

I saw one question early in the discussion that asked about specific time frames for trading specific equity instruments. Early on in my trading I realized that time (in terms of defining bars) was of little or no value as I was primarily interested in price action anyway. Specifically, timed candlesticks obscure a good deal of a price action that you could see otherwise. For example, I trade better renko, UniRenko, and range bars exclusively. These bars take time out of the equation and help you look at price action more closely.

Since I trade on futures exchanges, I am strictly a order flow/volume oriented trader. That being said, you can safely assume that I have extensive studies in auction theory and chaos theory. Chaos theory as defined by Benoit Mendelbrot in his book "The Misbehavior of Markets." Most order flow traders are pretty cozy with Market Profile, too; though I am not as deeply devoted to Market Profile as some traders are
As a scalper, I think it's absolutely imperative that you trade in real time. You'll find no tired lagging indicators on my chart, only real-time volume, order flow, and price action.
The 1st years of my trading were spent at a prop trading firm strictly on a volume ladder so the current crop of order flow programs is quite familiar to me and the techniques employed by institutional order flow traders were part of my trading arsenal long before I was a competent trader. Specifically, and order flow trader is going to look at the current TPO and the surrounding TPO's and make decisions based upon whether the market is in a two-sided auction (as it usually is) or if traders are lined up to place trades on only one side of the auction. Of course, this is a simplistic view of the actual trading process, but it sums up what I do fairly nicely.

As you may guess, I use a number of volume indicators (both vertical and horizontal) to understand what the market is doing. It is my opinion that most traders spend far too much time trying to find the right technique for the perfect indicator when support and resistance, trend lines, and volume will tell you all you need to know if you have the training to understand market activity in a zero-sum environment.

To the fella who wanted proof about buyers lurking below certain support and resistance areas...I don't recall the specifics but can tell you that looking at tier 2 quotes or in an order flow program that shows past activity in terms of volume and resting orders in place. Personally, I prefer looking at past battlegrounds and the exact numbers that it took to win those battles (or lose them) and a set up my trades based upon those parameters.
Okay, I have rambled a bit this evening which might have something to do with some Irish whiskey I am enjoying. Here are a few odds and ends that I do that you might find interesting.

1. I never wait for confirmation to trade support and resistance. I know that there is generally one dominant SAR line and I generally line up to trade at those lines without confirmation. Am I wrong sometimes? Yep. Am I right more often than wrong? Yep. This puts me ahead of retail traders by at least 10 ticks on most trades. How do I know this? Oh, I can see when the traders enter and exit on my order flow program.
2. I listen to the blues when I trade exclusively. Some old man years ago told me to listen to blues while I trade and it'll put me in a humble frame of mind. I didn't know any better so for 30 years now I have been listening to everyone from Pinetop Perkins to Hubert Sumlin. I also play in a regionally popular blues band. I should tell you that I have been on a Tedeshki/Trucks Band jag for quite a while. Best band playing, bar none, especially live. I listen to the music loud enough that I can only trade and use the music to block out any distractions.
3. I cannot remember a time that I listened to the news other than announcements. Most news organizations have a specific agenda and I don't want to be part of it.
4. This is the most simple one, but enjoys the widest violation. Don't trade against the trend. Just don't do it. Put it in your mind that there are NO good countertrend trades. I know a good countertrend trade occasionally surfaces, but I'm willing to forgo though one good countertrend trade to avoid the 10 bad ones I will run into trying to find a good one.
5. The secret to good trading doesn't lie with having cutting edge indicators or the hottest oscillator (not that such a thing exists) but your understanding of what is occurring in the market. It's not enough to know it's going up or down, it's important to understand the context of why it is behaving in a certain fashion. When you can understand the context of the market, you can flat-out beat it silly.