{quote} yep agree Nov 6, 2015 6:12pm {quote}
- #22,161
- Nov 10, 2015 2:27am Nov 10, 2015 2:27am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
- #22,162
- Nov 10, 2015 7:37am Nov 10, 2015 7:37am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
The EURUSD dropped like a stone after much better than expected NFP report hitting 1.0710 a historical support which holds the price from proceeding lower. The trend is clear and we also need to watch a possible position where we could enter another sell. H3, WPP, EMA 89 and the top of the equidistant channel mark the zone where we could expect another rejection. The zone is 1.0820-35. A rejection from the zone should target 1.0710 initially. 1.0706 is double bottom so a strong break of 1.0705 should accelerate the price towards 1.0670-50 (Monthly...
- #22,163
- Nov 11, 2015 12:11am Nov 11, 2015 12:11am
- Joined Apr 2008 | Status: Trader | 9,414 Posts
{quote} Exactly, I would prefer to sell it again from there, not now
risky but i will take it
- #22,164
- Nov 11, 2015 12:40am Nov 11, 2015 12:40am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
The USDCAD is currently in retracement mode on higher time frames. Housing prices in Canada dropped from a 3y high reading (231.3 to 198.1) and we could also read OECD forecasts that Canada's Eco growth will slow down this year.
The correlation on H4 timeframe is highly negative with GBPUSD and strong negative with EURUSD so if those pairs are heading down, USDCAD will surge up. Currently USDCAD is very close to POC which comes in 1.3215-35 zone and is already started to reject it. POC is showing inverted Head and Shoulders variant 2 pattern ( Leaned Inv Head and Shoulders ) with L3, previous swing and EMA 89. The zone could reject the pair towards 1.3320 and 1.3370. Additionally H4 timeframe is showing higher high and higher low so when we zoom in to H1 timeframe, we see POC clearly.
The correlation on H4 timeframe is highly negative with GBPUSD and strong negative with EURUSD so if those pairs are heading down, USDCAD will surge up. Currently USDCAD is very close to POC which comes in 1.3215-35 zone and is already started to reject it. POC is showing inverted Head and Shoulders variant 2 pattern ( Leaned Inv Head and Shoulders ) with L3, previous swing and EMA 89. The zone could reject the pair towards 1.3320 and 1.3370. Additionally H4 timeframe is showing higher high and higher low so when we zoom in to H1 timeframe, we see POC clearly.
- #22,169
- Nov 11, 2015 10:11am Nov 11, 2015 10:11am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
USDCAD +50 currently
- #22,170
- Nov 12, 2015 3:54am Nov 12, 2015 3:54am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
The USDCHF is in a strong uptrend, boosted by recent talks about possible rate hike in December and a very positive NFP data last Friday.
Technically we see a bullish zigzag and a confluence of L3, WPP and previous breakout-retest zone which makes a POC. POC is 0.9975-0.9995 zone and rejection from the zone targets 1.0180. If the pair closes above 1.0180 it should proceed to 1.0290. 0.9915 is a strong support ( L4, EMA 89, Trend line ) and it needs to hold for the price to remain bullish.
Technically we see a bullish zigzag and a confluence of L3, WPP and previous breakout-retest zone which makes a POC. POC is 0.9975-0.9995 zone and rejection from the zone targets 1.0180. If the pair closes above 1.0180 it should proceed to 1.0290. 0.9915 is a strong support ( L4, EMA 89, Trend line ) and it needs to hold for the price to remain bullish.
- #22,173
- Nov 12, 2015 12:26pm Nov 12, 2015 12:26pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
{quote} It is actually possible if you use T's method of analysis. He is currently using EMA/SMA analysis to deduct on the possible price action of this pair. If by SMA, the price that he place is actually a rather strong support on H1 SMA 100 and H4 SMA 50. That why IMHO, I think this is why he has the POC at that the mentioned price... Please correct me if I'm wrong, T. I sincerely hope I can learn here. Regards.
As you could see the price rejected initially for 40+ pips from POC
- #22,176
- Nov 13, 2015 1:33am Nov 13, 2015 1:33am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
The GBPUSD has rejected from 1.5180 initially but it stopped in 1.5130 zone being unable to proceed lower. 1.5210 was hit afterwards making it strong POC at this time. But as we can see on the chart POC is actually a CONGESTION zone so the reaction to both longs and shorts could be limited in effect and that is why we need to watch for possible breakout points.
To the upside we have important 1.5250 zone ( consolidation top, H3 ) so a bounce above 1.5250 should target 1.5275 and 1.5305. If the price proceeds below 1.5190 ( 89EMA, L4, trend line, consolidation bottom ) the target is 1.5155. If the momentum is strong we should pay attention to next targets ( historical levels of s/r on higher time frames ). Above 1.5305, 1.5360 is the target and below 1.5155 the pair could reach 1.5090.
So the most important thing for the pair is to move off from congestion zone towards any of the breakout points.
To the upside we have important 1.5250 zone ( consolidation top, H3 ) so a bounce above 1.5250 should target 1.5275 and 1.5305. If the price proceeds below 1.5190 ( 89EMA, L4, trend line, consolidation bottom ) the target is 1.5155. If the momentum is strong we should pay attention to next targets ( historical levels of s/r on higher time frames ). Above 1.5305, 1.5360 is the target and below 1.5155 the pair could reach 1.5090.
So the most important thing for the pair is to move off from congestion zone towards any of the breakout points.
- #22,177
- Nov 13, 2015 1:38am Nov 13, 2015 1:38am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
{quote} I got HIT SL....it's okay manage to recover through by selling CAD/JPY {image}
Check the chart and read the analysis carefully next time
