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Are you a trend trader or a counter-trend trader? 29 replies

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The Trader's Academy - by Traders for Traders

  • #141
  • Nov 4, 2015 7:14am Nov 4, 2015 7:14am
Quoting cat
{quote} That's if you've still got one after serving your trading apprenticeship!
Phone or wife/girlfriend?
Katte, kabuto no o wo shime yo. Size doesn't matter, leverage is the killer
  • #142
  • Nov 4, 2015 7:34am Nov 4, 2015 7:34am
Quoting revoli
{quote} Phone or wife/girlfriend?
The one with the circular ring, not the audible one.
  • #143
  • Nov 4, 2015 8:44am Nov 4, 2015 8:44am
EURJPY (M15) +38pips.



Trade Ideas:

1. 5ema the trigger.
2. Sync in pair.
3. Strength.
4. Momentum.



Cheers,
Yomi.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYM15.png Size: 59 KB
Time always comes before price
  • #144
  • Nov 4, 2015 11:58am Nov 4, 2015 11:58am
Remember, that you don't have to be an ace trader to make money. Just find a simple system that'll give you a 50/50 win/loss ratio or better, and with a modest 2:1 risk/reward ratio, you can make loads of money. We all tend to be perfectionists, somehow believing that we cannot make money unless we win the majority of our trades, but this is just not true.

Say you started with 100 (GB sterling) in your trading account. You put on ten trades, 5 are winners, and 5 are losers - not exactly world championship stuff eh? You are trading 1 per pip ( 10% risk, way too high, but this is just an example) Your risk/reward is 2:1, so you are hoping to capture 20 pips for a ten pip risk.

I know you've already worked it out, but I'll do the maths anyway. You lose 50 on 5 trades, but your winners net you 100. You end up with a 50% profit, immediately putting you into the ranks of one of the best traders in the world!

Of course, the risk per trade would be smaller, 1 or 2%, so the % gain would be much smaller, but over time, just by being pretty average, losing half of your trades at a modest 2:1 Win/loss ratio, you are making real money. All that is needed is a simple reliable strategy, and the discipline to follow it day after day.

Even if you lost 7 out of your 10 trades, you will still end up only £10 down, and you will be a lot wiser than you were at the beginning.
  • #145
  • Nov 5, 2015 4:38am Nov 5, 2015 4:38am
4 cases when you should sit on the sidelines:



1. You're feeling out of sync with the market.

2. You're having a losing streak.

3. You're unfamiliar with the report that you're planning to trade.

4. The odds are stacked against you.



Happy trading,
Yomi.
Time always comes before price
  • #146
  • Nov 5, 2015 5:14am Nov 5, 2015 5:14am
[quote=fxrabbi;8576381]4 cases when you should sit on the sidelines: 1. You're feeling out of sync with the market.

​Though what usually happens is that the market feels out of sync with you. Just joking Yomi, I and others value your input to this thread
  • #147
  • Nov 5, 2015 5:20am Nov 5, 2015 5:20am
I find that one of the principle reasons traders have losing trades, apart from it just being an inevitable part of trading, is that they miss a move, and because they have missed it, look to either get into it with poor timing, or they attempt to counter trade it by hoping to catch a top or a bottom. Just because the market has given you a good opportunity to open a position that you missed, doesn't mean that it will necessarily do so again at your own bidding, it will sooner or later, but on its own terms, not yours. Be patient, accept that you missed out, and wait until a proper buy/sell opportunity arises again.
  • #148
  • Edited 2:28am Nov 6, 2015 1:52am | Edited 2:28am
GM,
DAX 1st 2 hours of European session (9-11 Frankfurt time) and 1st 2 hours of the NY session (9-11 New York time)
Strong bullish bar a bar that closes in its upper 25% of its range
Strong bearish bar 25% of its lower range
21 LWMA interested in slope (positive or negative) see attached
Negative slope in other words negative momentum looking for a bullish bar that closes inside the LWMA, the slope remains negative, followed by a Strong bearish bar - bar that has the close below the low of the bullish bar. EDIT!!!! - VERY IMPORTANT - SORRY FOR FORGETTING TO MENTION THAT!!!
EP open of the next bar
Act only on the 1st entry signal if the trend continues and more signals are given that should be just continuation confirmation and a good opportunity to move the SLfor now at least
SL top of 2 bar formation (whichever bar posts a HH the bullish one, or the strong bearish bar)
SL moved to zero once reaching a 1:1 on a closing basis
For long positions the reverse would hold true.
Yesterdays EU session:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU_session.png Size: 47 KB

Yesterdays NY session:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NY_session.png Size: 51 KB

Before the change of the slope of 21 LWMA a change in momentum should be emphasized by the bars in the form of: 2-bar reversal with the volume on second bar > than volume on 1st bar; a strong bar formation; or 3 bar reversal with volume of 3rd bar higher than the first bar
If would like to investigate more: research formations such as reversal bar pattern, key reversal bar, exhaustion bar, pin bar, 2-bar reversal, 3-bar reversal, 3 bar pullback, inside bar, outside bar. also look at volume (IMO) But this would be too much info for a first post here (and in my opinion unnecessary for someone that doesnt have too much screen time behind bar pattern recognition) so stick to the main strategy its what I used and developed more from that as time went by
Hopefully it helps
Best,
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 MA_In_Color.mq4   4 KB | 342 downloads
  • #149
  • Nov 6, 2015 3:20am Nov 6, 2015 3:20am
3 reasons you should think twice about counter-trend forex trades:



1. More often than not, you're not really looking at a top or bottom.

2. The subconscious need to be right from picking a top or bottom increases the danger of poor risk management.

3. Counter-trend trading takes experience.



Happy trading,
Yomi.
Time always comes before price
  • #150
  • Nov 7, 2015 2:38pm Nov 7, 2015 2:38pm
Preparation is key with trading. I don't know about you, but I get up two hours before the markets open at 7am trading the Dax. I either go for a run by the sea where I live or I do some yoga. I'm at my desk 40 minutes before the Frankfurt open, studying the charts to determine the most likely direction for the price to move and where S&R is most likely to be. By the time the markets open I am prepared, wide awake, and ready to go. If I worked for some organization, I would have to be like this, so working for myself is no different. I am meticulous and methodical in everything I do as far as my trading is concerned, for I believe that as long as I am in control, the results I want will come my way most of the time.
  • #151
  • Nov 7, 2015 5:27pm Nov 7, 2015 5:27pm
Quoting cat
Preparation is key with trading. I don't know about you, but I get up two hours before the markets open at 7am trading the Dax. I either go for a run by the sea where I live or I do some yoga. I'm at my desk 40 minutes before the Frankfurt open, studying the charts to determine the most likely direction for the price to move and where S&R is most likely to be. By the time the markets open I am prepared, wide awake, and ready to go. If I worked for some organization, I would have to be like this, so working for myself is no different. I am meticulous...

Is good to follow your path, and thank you
Time always comes before price
  • #152
  • Nov 8, 2015 6:07am Nov 8, 2015 6:07am
Quoting cat
Preparation is key with trading. I don't know about you, but I get up two hours before the markets open at 7am trading the Dax. I either go for a run by the sea where I live or I do some yoga. I'm at my desk 40 minutes before the Frankfurt open, studying the charts to determine the most likely direction for the price to move and where S&R is most likely to be. By the time the markets open I am prepared, wide awake, and ready to go. If I worked for some organization, I would have to be like this, so working for myself is no different. I am meticulous...
Trading discipline is a priority.
Mental fitness first, than trade.
Per aspera ad astra
  • #153
  • Nov 8, 2015 7:40am Nov 8, 2015 7:40am
Let's have a song for a grey rainy Sunday. This is the brilliant Finnish band ' Poets of the Fall ', and I love the lyrics, though for our sake, let's change " Love Will come to you " to ' Success will come to you '.

Inserted Video
  • #154
  • Nov 8, 2015 10:19pm Nov 8, 2015 10:19pm
Great thread and thank you for creating this thread Cat. Great to learn from those who have been trading successfully for a while now and to learn the thought process and habits. Thank you for your contribution as well as others who have contributed to this thread!
  • #155
  • Nov 9, 2015 1:14am Nov 9, 2015 1:14am
Quoting shibebright
Great thread and thank you for creating this thread Cat. Great to learn from those who have been trading successfully for a while now and to learn the thought process and habits. Thank you for your contribution as well as others who have contributed to this thread!
Thanks shibebright, glad you like it
  • #156
  • Edited 4:04am Nov 9, 2015 3:00am | Edited 4:04am
5 Traits of a good forex trading Mentor:


1. He/She must be credible.

2. He/She must be able to inspire.

3. You must able to trust him/her.

4. He/She must be honest.

5. He/She must help you be your own trader.




Happy trading,
Yomi.
Time always comes before price
  • #157
  • Nov 10, 2015 6:02am Nov 10, 2015 6:02am
3 forex tips to help you manage your open position:


1. keep in touch with the market.

2. Be flexible with your trading plan.

3. Update your orders and position sizes.




Yomi.
Time always comes before price
  • #158
  • Nov 10, 2015 11:36am Nov 10, 2015 11:36am
Quoting fxrabbi
3 forex tips to help you manage your open position: 1. keep in touch with the market. 2. Be flexible with your trading plan. 3. Update your orders and position sizes. Yomi.
Your second point about a flexible trading plan is dangerous in isolation. I would say the plan must include flexibility but CONSISTENCY is key. Without consistent performance it is almost impossible to start to make improvements. If a plan delivers consistently poor results it is generally easy to identify problem areas and from there come up with changes that MAY improve things.If you make changes on the fly you risk missing out on learning where chnqges really need to be made. Any changes should be considered out of trading hours, preferably over a weekend or some such. Testing can then be undertaken using a demo account and if the results are CONSISTENTLY better consideration should be given to adopting these changes. Do nothing differently until you know the outcomes. If I think of a change tht I think would help I note it down then forget about it until afterbthe trading day is over. In order to have predictable and consistent results I make a point of writing out my plan for the trading day the night before. Instruments, lot size, stop, and strategies I may follow depending on how the market develops in the day.

Consistency needs rules, discipline and patience. Develop these and trading will be a whole lot easier.
Katte, kabuto no o wo shime yo. Size doesn't matter, leverage is the killer
  • #159
  • Edited 2:21am Nov 11, 2015 2:00am | Edited 2:21am
I see much written about trading plans, that you've got to have one, etc, but the concept of having a trading plan is often misunderstood. To have a set of rules written down is problematic because the market just doesn't conform to rules very well.

Personally, I don't have a plan as such, never really did, and if you asked me now to show you my trading plan, I wouldn't be able to. This is because over the years my knowledge of the market has evolved as I have become more experienced. To have had a plan when I started out would have been pointless as I didn't know what I was doing anyway, and to have had one at any stage of my trading would have put my evolving strategy into a straight jacket of certainty in a world where such a thing does not exist. A trading plan for me therefore is more of a mental map than anything else - it is there, but within it is a flexibility which fits the market with its constant fluctuations. It would be wonderful if we could have a written plan where x=y and z=B that we could follow every time to make money from, but unfortunately the market rarely gives us those opportunities. It's a bit like driving a car, you're hopeless at first because you don't know what you're doing, and no plan is going to help you. The more you drive, the more instinctive you become and better you read the actions of other drivers on the road. Your plan should be hard wired inside you before you start really putting your money on the line, you should know how to read the market from one day to another, and how to react to it in any given situation. This knowledge takes quite a long time and can come only come from experience. Your hard drive is your knowledge, and your knowledge is your plan.
  • #160
  • Nov 11, 2015 3:14am Nov 11, 2015 3:14am
Quoting cat
Preparation is key with trading. I don't know about you, but I get up two hours before the markets open at 7am trading the Dax. I either go for a run by the sea where I live or I do some yoga. I'm at my desk 40 minutes before the Frankfurt open, studying the charts to determine the most likely direction for the price to move and where S&R is most likely to be. By the time the markets open I am prepared, wide awake, and ready to go. If I worked for some organization, I would have to be like this, so working for myself is no different. I am meticulous...
It is,when I go through my set ups and previous trades, the good and the bad my results always improve.
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