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EUR/USD: IntraDay Scalping and Short Term Swing Trading Only

  • #1,841
  • Nov 9, 2015 8:02am Nov 9, 2015 8:02am
Quoting sakisf
Not trading much today, just did a couple more losses on EU on the way up instead of waiting for pivot. Actually I am waiting for this to play out. NFP numbers both time, same strength, same background. (Draghi started QE then, Draghi said may extend QE & neg rate now, NFB big beat then & now - candle structure about the same). About the same time that GU also broke down 1.50. Plus my expectation for week below. Trying not to scalp much while sick and sitting home with the baby - can't put attention on chart. {image} {image}
See the resemblance now? Just waiting for a close around 1.073x later tonight to confirm. GU is acting up too, but shouldn't get away (from my bad trade ).
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  • #1,842
  • Nov 9, 2015 8:13am Nov 9, 2015 8:13am
Quoting puney
it found some support on the 78.6% level from todays low swing. {image}
35-40 is a mid OR
  • #1,843
  • Nov 9, 2015 8:21am Nov 9, 2015 8:21am
Quoting sakisf
{quote} See the resemblance now? Just waiting for a close around 1.073x later tonight to confirm. GU is acting up too, but shouldn't get away (from my bad trade ). {image} {image}
ECG - looks similar

Btw. hidden div on m5 (possible continuation)
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  • #1,844
  • Nov 9, 2015 8:24am Nov 9, 2015 8:24am
Quoting KzX
{quote} ECG - looks similar Btw. hidden div on m5 (possible continuation) {image}
Yeah I can see it clearly in this one! Need to get a doppler scan to confirm it before selling more

Closed all shorts on hit of daily open. Need some up to reposition @44-50.
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  • #1,845
  • Nov 9, 2015 8:43am Nov 9, 2015 8:43am
Well done, nice trades!
  • #1,846
  • Edited 10:27am Nov 9, 2015 8:48am | Edited 10:27am
Quoting KzX
Well done, nice trades!
Thanks but I was lucky in EG & NU to catch the tops, didn't even watch the charts, entered randomly. Wasn't expecting that hard drop in EU, just a slow grind down till the night. And timing was perfect to exit dax, was mostly in dd there and it fell like a rock as soon as I exited

Took a short there (49). Almost hit sl but it survived. Gonna close below daily open if we get there later. Need decisive break of 40 (200sma on 30s tf). sl hit at 60.
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  • #1,847
  • Edited 2:35pm Nov 9, 2015 2:23pm | Edited 2:35pm
Quoting KzX
{quote} They are dancing slightly below 50% of nfp ride. If 68 was a proper swing start, then next stop is around 795-798. If broken 815 > 830. But remember it's Monday. Usual trading range is limited to 60p +- a few. Maybe today's gonna be different due to nfp crap. Anyway: 725-755-785-800-815-830
Boring Monday but predictable.
  • #1,848
  • Nov 9, 2015 2:42pm Nov 9, 2015 2:42pm
Quoting KzX
{quote} Boring Monday but predictable.
Why do you think it would go up? Been watching all day the 30s/1m out of boredom and noticed the difficulty of bulls to make 10-20 pip moves up and the easiness of them to be eradicated in minutes. Seemed more like profit taking or repositioning, not sure if there is anything to help it up atm other than Draghi on Wednesday.

Not saying it would go down, just doesn't look to have a set direction atm, perhaps next two days it would be still ranging. GU was the only one to erase the nfp losses, but then again it was the one less hit as it already had lost 300 pips the days before.
  • #1,849
  • Edited 3:17pm Nov 9, 2015 3:00pm | Edited 3:17pm
Quoting sakisf
{quote} Why do you think it would go up? Been watching all day the 30s/1m out of boredom and noticed the difficulty of bulls to make 10-20 pip moves up and the easiness of them to be eradicated in minutes. Seemed more like profit taking or repositioning, not sure if there is anything to help it up atm other than Draghi on Wednesday. Not saying it would go down, just doesn't look to have a set direction atm, perhaps next two days it would be still ranging. GU was the only one to erase the nfp losses, but then again it was the one less hit as it already...
Hmmm, big S/Rs like to be retested 820-850 was definitely one. It was broken with a big fat candle which is strong bearish sign but we'll see. They cooled down a bit today. It's just we haven't seen a continuation after such a strong nfp numbers today, looks like most of it was priced in. I'm flat until tomorrow, not sure what's gonna be next 650-680 or 820-850. Daily indies are very oversold - this is the only reason which makes me think there's gonna be a push up.

Additionally they reached the target which I 'dreamed' of a month ago...Basically to the pip.

Quoting KzX
Not even one projection over the weekend? Here's one in case FED wants to go for hikes. Daily. {image}
  • #1,850
  • Nov 9, 2015 3:31pm Nov 9, 2015 3:31pm
Quoting KzX
{quote} Hmmm, big S/Rs like to be retested 820-850 was definitely one. It was broken with a big fat candle which is strong bearish sign but we'll see. They cooled down a bit today. It's just we haven't seen a continuation after such a strong nfp numbers today, looks like most of it was priced in. I'm flat until tomorrow, not sure what's gonna be next 650-680 or 820-850. Daily indies are very oversold - this is the only reason which makes me think there's gonna be a push up. Additionally they reached the target which I 'dreamed' of a month ago...Basically...
Thanks

Trying not to get biased short but atm I can't see any bull picking up out of nowhere. That's why I posted the resemblance charts earlier and now again that we are 30m from close of the day. Even with the big dax selling off today euro couldn't keep up other than some pathetic moves. Have some shorts going on atm which are at be (averaged). Will close for the night as I don't want surprises anyway.
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  • #1,851
  • Edited Nov 10, 2015 1:41am Nov 9, 2015 3:51pm | Edited Nov 10, 2015 1:41am
Normally don't like to take/hold scalps overnight and pay carry and don't like to enter after 10p server time, but when I woke up there was more mtf action on the short side, it was 8p after the fact but this is mtf, and I got multiple sigs so I shorted from 52.

07:05 Pre open short now +12, mtf continues to slowly move bearishly, 4 hr has not gone bearish yet, but would be next to go if this continues, I expect more downside, unless we get some dollar negative news.

One caveat, my 4hr mtf indication shows it's in the midst of a move of going up that started at yesterday's open, so obviously some contradiction here. As it is with contradictions, the subsequent move that converges all will be strong and full of pips for scalpers.

07:55 mtf is now ticking up including 4h and shorter tfs, i'm looking to enter long within 15min here upon confirmation.

08:45 potential long signal has not been validated as of yet... direction: still short.

09:20 long sig 80% validated...direction long at 47.5
  • #1,852
  • Nov 10, 2015 2:06am Nov 10, 2015 2:06am
Quoting Pipologist
09:20 long sig 80% validated...direction long at 47.5
loaded up more at 54 and 55 and at 62

real move should begin soon, expecting over 1.08

long sig is 100% validated for me
  • #1,853
  • Nov 10, 2015 2:13am Nov 10, 2015 2:13am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} loaded up more at 54 and 55 and at 62 real move should begin soon, expecting over 1.08 long sig is 100% validated for me
I am short here. Targeting day open during london and sl at 78. Maybe keeping it for a bit more to make it swing.

Big picture I still wait the below area to fill first for a good move up.
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  • #1,854
  • Nov 10, 2015 2:18am Nov 10, 2015 2:18am
Oh what a nasty stop hunt that was, usually there is at least one in the early Asia session, but they were saving it for just now...good thing I was in front of the monitor and moved my stops out of the way....bast***ds...now the downside has been cleared out...we clear 1.0765 and 1.08 is just around the bend.

my mtf monitors went dangerously short too quickly and are now long again
  • #1,855
  • Nov 10, 2015 2:22am Nov 10, 2015 2:22am
OR 35-65
At mid atm.
  • #1,856
  • Nov 10, 2015 2:33am Nov 10, 2015 2:33am
The most diabolical move would be back down to 35/37ish and then straight back up to 1.0820. It's been done so many times before with so many symbols...

If it doesn't hold 43/45 here...
  • #1,857
  • Edited 3:01am Nov 10, 2015 2:34am | Edited 3:01am
Waiting for a bo below the 200's. This up move has been an EG move all along till the pivot, not sure about euro strength atm. Could end up as yesterday up & down.

Re-test of 200 from below & ribbon moved below 200, maybe finally we can go down to test nfp low? Putting sl at be now.
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  • #1,858
  • Nov 10, 2015 3:11am Nov 10, 2015 3:11am
Dax is weak. Closed at 40 for +20. Will wait for a retrace to see if I add again short or just watch it go to my target without taking action.
  • #1,859
  • Nov 10, 2015 3:22am Nov 10, 2015 3:22am
Quoting sakisf
Dax is weak. Closed at 40 for +20. Will wait for a retrace to see if I add again short or just watch it go to my target without taking action.
nice timing on the exit. i got stopped at BE and with minor losses on that last swing
  • #1,860
  • Edited 3:48am Nov 10, 2015 3:24am | Edited 3:48am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} nice timing on the exit. i got stopped at BE and with minor losses on that last swing
Could have juiced more of it. Think we are heading down to nfp low+. Now have to wait retrace or just sit on my hands. Actually the second since I am going to the tax office to try and evade one tax as a good Greek

Sold 435, sl 51 and I am out.
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