Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 323 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #6,441
  • Nov 9, 2015 3:30am Nov 9, 2015 3:30am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} On AUD/JPY Monthly demand in control, no shorts allowed. On your weekly chart, the lowers supply zone is not valid, look at the bad base with a long lower shadow (tail), bad base, not tradable. Long bias for now since Monthly Demand zone in control. Cheers, Alfonso
Thank you for the comment.

Could you post a comment on my NZDJPY post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...03#post8576503
  • #6,442
  • Nov 9, 2015 3:33am Nov 9, 2015 3:33am
Quoting dis01
My analysis on the NZDJPY: {image} {image} {image}
D1 DZ bullish engulf still in control. No shorts, still lots of buyers left to the left and monthly supply could not close below previous demand, confirmation is needed but we have not taken out that demand yet.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,443
  • Nov 9, 2015 3:44am Nov 9, 2015 3:44am
Thanks Alfonso!
But can you give me a comment about http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...34#post8576434 ?
I have confused by new H4 sup level, because it did not take out opposite demand zone, so we cant use it for trade.
  • #6,444
  • Nov 9, 2015 3:47am Nov 9, 2015 3:47am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} D1 DZ bullish engulf still in control. No shorts, still lots of buyers left to the left and monthly supply could not close below previous demand, confirmation is needed but we have not taken out that demand yet. Cheers, Alfonso
Why? in the rules:

we consider a zone to no longer be valid? When is it considered to be broken and needs to be removed from our charts?

  1. The zone is no longer valid when it's been taken out by as little as 1 pip
  2. We don't wait for a close above or below the zone in order to consider a zone as a violation
  3. We don't wait for a full OCHL candle above/below the zone

  • #6,445
  • Nov 9, 2015 5:27am Nov 9, 2015 5:27am
Quoting dvimix
{quote} Why? in the rules: we consider a zone to no longer be valid? When is it considered to be broken and needs to be removed from our charts? The zone is no longer valid when it's been taken out by as little as 1 pip We don't wait for a close above or below the zone in order to consider a zone as a violation We don't wait for a full OCHL candle above/below the zone
Like I said above, demand zone still in control, bullish engulfing pattern, too aggressive. There is no rule that requires a OCHL candle below/above a zone, that's only for the trendlines. Cheers, Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,446
  • Nov 9, 2015 5:28am Nov 9, 2015 5:28am
Quoting dvimix
Hello Alfonso! I read first post, try understand all of it. I have a question,sorry for it, may be it is stupid. It is about entry point. Thanks for your help and efforts.{image}
H4 supply entry point is correct on your circle. Cheers, Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,447
  • Nov 9, 2015 5:53am Nov 9, 2015 5:53am
Hope you had a great weekend, I've been away for a couple of weeks in Iceland on a photo expedition I planned for months, so I've not been very active which is why you didn't get any updated from me. I'm now back to my daily routine and 25º C instead of below zero temperatures

I will hold a new live webinar in 2-3 weeks, you'll receive an email with a link to it soon.

AUD/USD dropped from Weekly supply, now within counter-trned Weekly demand, Weekly demand in control now, D1 downtrend. Short bias but too low in the Weekly curve, confirmation for shorts unless Weekly Demand is taken out. D1 shorts happened already.

Cheers,
Alfonso

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.png Size: 84 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,448
  • Nov 9, 2015 5:54am Nov 9, 2015 5:54am
NZD/USD has a bigger picture downtrend, monthly is down and demand zones being removed. Daily is creating potential new imbalances after removing last D1 demand zone, room to drop to tested Weekly Demand Zone

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd.png Size: 89 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,449
  • Nov 9, 2015 5:54am Nov 9, 2015 5:54am
USD/JPY breaking higher, new weekly demand created and new daily demand zones have been created. Long bias. Counter-trend shorts can happen at the top but requires confirmation with brand new levels of supply

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.png Size: 87 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,450
  • Nov 9, 2015 6:07am Nov 9, 2015 6:07am
Alfonso. Can you see this post? http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...40#post8580440
  • #6,451
  • Nov 9, 2015 6:18am Nov 9, 2015 6:18am
Quoting conom589
Alfonso. Can you see this post? http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...40#post8580440
I had already replied to it. Cheers, Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,452
  • Edited 7:28am Nov 9, 2015 6:28am | Edited 7:28am
Quoting panoramia
Hope you had a great weekend, I've been away for a couple of weeks in Iceland on a photo expedition I planned for months, so I've not been very active which is why you didn't get any updated from me. I'm now back to my daily routine and 25 C instead of below zero temperatures I will hold a new live webinar in 2-3 weeks, you'll receive an email with a link to it soon. AUD/USD dropped from Weekly supply, now within counter-trned Weekly demand, Weekly demand in control now, D1 downtrend. Short bias but too low in the Weekly curve, confirmation for...

We are too high in DXY

Quoting panoramia
USD/JPY breaking higher, new weekly demand created and new daily demand zones have been created. Long bias. Counter-trend shorts can happen at the top but requires confirmation with brand new levels of supply {image}
Alfonso / Do we hawe here too much trading zone? Is this good tradeble zone. Dollar index is too high .

http://invst.ly/fwgj
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-11-09_15-45-23.png Size: 91 KB
  • #6,453
  • Nov 9, 2015 7:32am Nov 9, 2015 7:32am
Quoting dvimix
{quote} Why? in the rules: we consider a zone to no longer be valid? When is it considered to be broken and needs to be removed from our charts? The zone is no longer valid when it's been taken out by as little as 1 pip We don't wait for a close above or below the zone in order to consider a zone as a violation We don't wait for a full OCHL candle above/below the zone



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPYDaily.png Size: 54 KB
  • #6,454
  • Nov 9, 2015 8:37am Nov 9, 2015 8:37am
Quoting conom589
{quote} We are too high in DXY {quote} Alfonso / Do we hawe here too much trading zone? Is this good tradeble zone. Dollar index is too high . http://invst.ly/fwgj {image}
Long bias, buy until you get a loss Obviously if price retests the upper area, WAIT!

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,455
  • Nov 9, 2015 3:15pm Nov 9, 2015 3:15pm
hey again,
1. if i want to set & forget at a monthly SD but my entry TF is daily, should i look for D1 SD zones within the MN or should i look for a D1 in W1 in MN? Also for conformation, is a new D1 SD zone enough in MN or wait for new W1 before taking D1?
2. if we have a level on top of level, we need to break both for consider it to be in a new trend (except first level was working, so we got a OHLC away)?

greets
joe

p.s. whats the latest rectangle reader version? is there a white background version?
  • #6,456
  • Nov 10, 2015 2:31am Nov 10, 2015 2:31am
Quoting JoeMcCool
hey again, 1. if i want to set & forget at a monthly SD but my entry TF is daily, should i look for D1 SD zones within the MN or should i look for a D1 in W1 in MN? Also for conformation, is a new D1 SD zone enough in MN or wait for new W1 before taking D1?
That's how it works, it's explained in the realignment videos, exactly like that yes. D1 minimum on monthly imbalances

Quote
2. if we have a level on top of level, we need to break both for consider it to be in a new trend (except first level was working, so we got a OHLC away)? greets joe p.s. whats the latest rectangle reader version? is there a white background version?

Level on top of level, if very close are considered as a single one, if clearly separated then they will be two separate entities and a new trend will be there. Rectangle reader indicator hasn't been updated for a long time, it works great as it is.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,457
  • Nov 10, 2015 7:54am Nov 10, 2015 7:54am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_D1.png Size: 94 KB
  • #6,458
  • Edited 2:42pm Nov 10, 2015 1:18pm | Edited 2:42pm
Quoting conom589
{image}
Daily demand zone on audusd has been tested, rules don't allow trading tested zones, not tradable. Cheer
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,459
  • Edited Nov 11, 2015 12:55pm Nov 10, 2015 5:49pm | Edited Nov 11, 2015 12:55pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Thanks for sharing your trades Roberto. Just a quick thing on the EURUSD H4 long. The level looks good on H4, but there is a rule that prevented me from taking that long trade there. I was already long from lower and exited up there. There is a rule that says that a level is confirmed once we do have at least 1 full candle consolidating away (staying away from the level). On the D1 demand where that H4 demand is sitting, that didn't happen. The D1 bearish candle dropped right into potential D1 demand on the next candle, invalidating the...
Alfonso/ We have 1 full OHCL candle consolidating away from a level in order to validate the imbalance from the level in H4 TF. and no candle away on the D1 demand where that H4 demand is sitting. But in this case our entry TF is H4. My question is: Do we have to have at least one candle consolidating away on the H4 demand (entry TF) and/or on the Daily demand (High TF)?

2-nd question/

  1. 2 OBVIOUS valleys (uptrend) or peaks (downtrend) are needed in order to draw a trendline
  2. The second valley MUST make a higher high than the first valley's second leg (highest high made by the previous valley) before it's confirmed as a good valley

As per the rules can we draw these new Trend Lines in D1 and H4 TF? Are they valid?

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,460
  • Nov 11, 2015 11:12am Nov 11, 2015 11:12am
Hi Alfonso. If you have two or more H4/H1 DZ in D1 DZ which you prefer to take. The upper one or lower?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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