The Goose

Why most wouldn't bother to look at this, again, the equity curve and that we've lost more than we've made...

This really actually lends itself to the Trade Cliche;

It's better to be out of a trade wishing you were in, than in a trade wishing you could get out.

Guppy played a little of both sides of this...

It was trading long, took a couple of pips to the long side...but while it was wishing to be long in profit, was actually short and wishing to not be in these here trades...

We've all been there...

Look at the impact of the Black Swan from the beginning of the year.

How many brokers lost their collective asses by not moderating positions or leaving leverage at a max on the Swissy prior to the uncoupling?
How many traders were in absolute fear of repercussions of their trades that extended beyond complete account annihilation?

So, what is to be learned from all of this?

For you...I don't know.

For me...I have an idea.

Each modification to a strategy requires some testing and this is not through the use of the Strategy Tester, much past the point of verification of triggering...so, I think I do have an idea...

Something that extends past 7.
Something that still predominantly relies on Market Dynamics.
Something that may limit the profit...

But something that may also limit the losses.

As there has been no live release of Guppy or WWGD and because I am just not ready to open the gates on this yet...

I am going to make a couple of modifications to both versions, open up a couple of fresh testing accounts and fire these bitches off for the new week.

Yeah, my intent was to have some live releases ready for the next week...get this whole license/charity thing going....

But at this point, wouldn't you be more comfortable knowing that I am working on improvements, rather than to justify some dogshit trades and a fair sized Stop Loss?

I know, I am.

Magix
Have you thought that perhaps there is some error in the code?
I've looked at the biggest losers GBPUSD and those were clearly against the trend and guppy is not meant to do this.
Or it was going with the ended trend when the trend has clearly reversed ( based on your MA12/14+60/70 on the 1 and 5 min)
This is on your demo account 2088995036
and trades
91914507
x453
x439
etc

I've seen the same thing happen on GBPAUD
If there is no error in the code, perhaps some additional filtering is required?

cheers

I think I have an idea what you are saying, bill...but could I get you to throw down a chart so that I have a more clear understanding?

ok please see attachment
TRADE 93264874 OPEN 2015.10.29 16:40:00
TRADE 93271984 OPEN 2015.10.29 16:54:00
TRADE 93281570 OPEN 2015.10.29 17:10:00

Loosely defined trade methodology

Trend
1440 - if price is above, we are looking at longs, if price is below, we are looking at shorts.

Overbought/Oversold.
If 12>14 price is overbought on an M1 chart. || if 12<14 price is oversold on an M1 chart.
if 60>70 price is overbought on an M5 chart. || if 60<70 price is oversold on an M5 chart.

If trend is short and the M1&M5 are overbought, we are looking to sell.
If trend is long and the M1&M5 are oversold, we are looking to buy.

As price crosses above/below the fast MA on the M1 chart, we have a trigger.

Look at the primary trade, both MACDs are above zero, price is below the 1440, price close below the fast M1 moving average, trigger to sell.

This cost averaging continues on until we see a defined trend change (adapted trend for choppy markets) and then the triggering continues on an M5 trigger until there is an adequate price retrace.

All of the trades taken, were exactly as logic dictated, may not be what your understanding is/was.

As per this previous post w/ chart, I didn't actually see any errors in the trades you had pointed out, by way of logic or trigger.

HOWEVER!!

I did find a couple of rogue strays that definitely lead to the Stop Loss being triggered.

Check it...

With these 3 trades, circled on the chart, from the lowest position to the Stop Loss is about a hundred pips, in this case, that'd work out to be about $10 bucks. That in itself is a hit, to be sure...but we have also added in 2 more from a relatively close point turning that value into closer to $30 bucks. Given that the Stop Loss was set to $150, 20% of this value was actually improper triggers!!

Don't get me wrong here, there'd still be a loss or possibly positions being held throughout the weekend at a Draw Down, but the logic on retrace, without having to absorb this extra $30 and possibly having better cost averaged positions to help maximize profit, could have made all of the difference in the world.

A new week upon us!!

E HAW!!

I have done a little work on both versions of the Guppy logic and launched 2 new Trade Explorers.
Notable:
Guppy is launched on a $500 account and the only logic I have worked on is the False Entries as per previous post.
WWGD is launched on a $1000 Account and will be working along the lines of what Bill Mentioned, as working "In Trend", only. I am using the same trend definition but have removed the negative trade close option. This bitch will trade until it prospers only averaging by trigger in trend, or until it Blows UP!

For those interested in doing some beta testing, there is a NEW folder on the first post. It is the Original Version of WWGD as has been trading in thread. Download the file and follow the instructions and you too can play along at home.

Only 1 Silver License will be provided per trader, so, pick your broker, account start and trade pairs wisely!!!
This will only have a .01 start lot size allowed and has no limit on the amount of cost averaged trades it takes.
I don't encourage running this version on live funds, but hey, I am...so, really, do whatever you want....

This, will be what you are looking for, once you have obtained an activation key!

Only a dozen folk downloaded the Silver Licensed version on post 1...

Nobody asked for a Activation Key, meaning, I was the only one Live Testing and others, perhaps just wanted to see if they actually required a license, or didn't bother to read the instructions...

Shocking...

My Silver WWGD is on an account that didn't give a confirmation mail to have access to the account number and passwords, so, unfortunately, I can't load up a Trade Explorer or a Myfxbook link. I guess they still haven't worked out all of the bugs with MT4 yet...sigh.

Anyways, after a little struggling this week, Silver WWGD came up ahead on gains over the other 2, no modifications to the actual logic, with exception of the licensing. Decent enough.

The corrected triggering of Guppy was also run (trade explorer in thread) on Garfield's idea of a $500 account...because really, how much risk would anybody initially take on a "Grid EA"?

Turns out, this week like all others, $500 may have seen some woes and might even see the pant shitting levels of trades, but still came out with some profit on the week.

Large?

No...but acceptable for the actual risks involved.

As for me, personally...

The cold weather has seemingly brought out the worst in my physical ailments, restricting my activities and consequently affecting my "Give a Fuck" factor, so I have quietly sat out of most of my online activities and testing...

Fingers crossed for a better week, next.

Cold weather blues I suggest a hot tub and rum.

Somehow I missed silver was ready will back read to where and how to do the charity donation later this weekend.

Still free play versions running...and only on WWGD. (testing the licensing)

Correctly speaking, I have modified the triggering to weed out headfakes and multiple trades inside of the narrow ranges, as was discussed previous. Besides that, all the same as was.

No daily filter, just a Guppyesque trader.

Can be on any time frame, but my preference will always be the M1.

(Of course, having a couple extra hands in testing (live) could definitely help on the ranges afforded by other timeframes and additional pairs.)

EURJPY During NFP.

M1 trades during the Pre-NFP...

M5 trade logic kicked in on the price exodus...

Escape in the supply zone.

Limiting trades to minimize risk and maximize profits.

The dragon played all M1 triggers to find an Exit on a daily reversal during NFP pre/post action and then sat out the limited range on the balance of the day.

The most interesting day of play was for EURAUD during NFP pre/post.

Started off with M1 triggers for the narrow range.
Worked into an M5 to exit at supply zone.
Waited for market to finish fucking around...
And then
Continued on with M1 daily directional triggering.

Played like a Champ!

Congrats,
trades look very good, seems to be a very balanced logic!

Hi Magix,

A hot tub and Rum have already been suggested, I strongly second that.
It helps.

As for the versions, I would like to try Guppy and not WWGD as it seems more conservative so I'll wait.
(and the README.txt says that if one removes the TE one will not be banned from future beta testing, is that correct?)


Do feel better.

I am keen to try the Guppy2.

Hi Magix

Activation Number: ADB3AA6DB814BB6AD6A199120CE5B8C7

Thanks