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  • #11,141
  • Nov 6, 2015 8:47pm Nov 6, 2015 8:47pm
Quoting The Fool
we'll see what the one we partnered on does....
a Nov expiry between $213 and $216 would be great
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,142
  • Nov 6, 2015 8:58pm Nov 6, 2015 8:58pm
Quoting The Fool
the Q's look like they will just go up 4ever, doing call diagonals might be the best bet there, with the short leg N4, D1 maybe.......
....maybe leg into something - Dec $122 calls are 13c....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,143
  • Nov 6, 2015 9:26pm Nov 6, 2015 9:26pm
speaking of legging in....check the returns today for some of the financials.....BAC popped 3.75%....sucking up the rate hike rumor....somebody bought 99,000 Nov $18 calls for 30c....Dec1 $19/19.5 vert calls are 1c ..... one centavo cabron
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,144
  • Nov 6, 2015 9:45pm Nov 6, 2015 9:45pm
nothing as hot n nasty as long vol.....this mofo sat on 5c all day today & never filled.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,145
  • Nov 6, 2015 9:50pm Nov 6, 2015 9:50pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} we will have to represent on the TA. To get anything over 30c on the $1-wide you have to start flirting with (I'm guessing) 30+ deltas if you are 6 weeks out - so, I will have to see more upside - show me SPY $212+ and then I will shop $217 short .... the Q's look like they will just go up 4ever, doing call diagonals might be the best bet there, with the short leg N4, D1 maybe... If perchance we are gifted with a pullback next week, I will look to start the hunt with SPY short put verts......everything subject to change - I will be very...
Exactamente: 212+. Not sure where to start looking on the downside, but I think I'll let the VIX tell me where to enter there ... . But I'm pretty much "anyway the wind blows, doesn't really mahhh ter ... ."

QQQ has pretty much been shot out of a cannon, so a top level there is a tricky little bugger ... .

In the meantime, I'll continue to slog through the few remaining attractive earnings plays ... .

Out of all the instruments that reacted "properly" to the NFP's (and the increased potential of a Dec hike) -- TLT, gapped down and ended at 119.00. Pondering some kind of way-out-in-time, cheap lottery trade to the put side ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,146
  • Nov 6, 2015 9:59pm Nov 6, 2015 9:59pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
In the meantime, I'll continue to slog through the few remaining attractive earnings plays ....
yep coming week the last one with a decent load, let us know what you have in mind....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,147
  • Nov 6, 2015 10:31pm Nov 6, 2015 10:31pm
CSIQ goes in pre hours 11/10, need get in Monday - if I could truly fill the weekly double vert shown (for pennies), I would - CSIQ will sometimes pop $5 on ER - double vert makes money on $3 either way, and ya get most of the week to trend, if it's in the cards
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,148
  • Nov 7, 2015 7:43pm Nov 7, 2015 7:43pm
Q's....last time we saw 6 straight weekly green candles was, yep, this time last year....ya gotta start liking the odds for a pullback.....IVR cratered, ya gotta also like them cheap time spreads what would pay well with the rising iv of a little drop...just 2/3 weeks out - if the calendar doesn't pay at front week expiry you hold the back longs for another shot....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,149
  • Nov 8, 2015 1:19am Nov 8, 2015 1:19am
long vol baby
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,150
  • Nov 8, 2015 1:06pm Nov 8, 2015 1:06pm
@ time spreads - pay more, get more (what is year-end target for the S&P after a Dec FOMC rate hike?)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,151
  • Nov 8, 2015 1:20pm Nov 8, 2015 1:20pm
14c for a $5 vert...means $14 pays near $500 on another huge VIX spike....but....14c mid/76c market
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,152
  • Nov 9, 2015 10:57am Nov 9, 2015 10:57am
Here goes the rate hike scare... /ES -1.40%... /NQ -1.63%...
hm...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,153
  • Nov 9, 2015 11:40am Nov 9, 2015 11:40am
Quoting StrayDog
Here goes the rate hike scare... /ES -1.40%... /NQ -1.63%... hm...
Could be, we'll see if it can get some legs....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,154
  • Nov 9, 2015 12:58pm Nov 9, 2015 12:58pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Could be, we'll see if it can get some legs....
Some pullback is expected, after such a huge and quick move. Too quick, too far... Could be another 2-3% on top of this today.
Lets say SPX down to 2040... and /NQ... that beast have a 100 points gap up on that day when MSFT, AMZN and GOOGL had ER'... could go to 4500. Idk.
And then Santa will come and save the Christmass.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,155
  • Nov 9, 2015 2:00pm Nov 9, 2015 2:00pm
did you DD the Nov/Nov4 SPY calls we put on? I did, with N/N4 $195.5/$195 puts, for 10c debit - it needs SPY < $204 (if I recall correctly) to make some money in expiry week.....so paired with $214.5/$215 calls (is that right?)...that's a $20-wide kitty....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,156
  • Nov 9, 2015 2:53pm Nov 9, 2015 2:53pm
btfd to close....?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,157
  • Nov 9, 2015 5:45pm Nov 9, 2015 5:45pm
These are the days when I wish I didn't have a day job. All I can do is watch the fun from an iPhone app.

Out of the TSLA call side for a .50 db, so about 1.52 out of Elon Musk. Thanks, Elon.

This week is awfully slim pickings for earnings; at least the high IVR/IV ones. Only M (Macy's) has got what it takes -- 100 IVR/92 IV. Going for a fill of 1.01 on a Nov 20th 39/53.5 short strangle.

I'd join in the DD fun, but I've got a few index ETF iron condor call side turd piles that got sucked up in this upmove that I had to roll out; that crap's crowding late Nov/Dec expiries.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,158
  • Nov 9, 2015 6:25pm Nov 9, 2015 6:25pm
Tony MX needs to sound and look a little less desperate. This thing's a cluster from the get go and price has already breached the short put:

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Tony WTF.pdf   56 KB | 425 downloads


I'm surprised he didn't add his ordinary "Don't tell Tom ... " tagline to this one ... . Now that I said all that, it'll end up in profit ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,159
  • Edited 11:48pm Nov 9, 2015 7:05pm | Edited 11:48pm
Quoting The Fool
CSIQ goes in pre hours 11/10, need get in Monday - if I could truly fill the weekly double vert shown (for pennies), I would - CSIQ will sometimes pop $5 on ER - double vert makes money on $3 either way, and ya get most of the week to trend, if it's in the cards
well, I threw change at this idea at the open - iv ramped and those verts were >double what they were a day or so b4, say la V. PCLN down near 10%...........another earnings season comes and goes.....

I filled several $32 & $33 Dec/Jan VXX call calendars today, all for around 20c, counting on JY to crack that whip....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,160
  • Nov 9, 2015 8:26pm Nov 9, 2015 8:26pm
Quoting The Fool
did you DD the Nov/Nov4 SPY calls we put on? I did, with N/N4 $195.5/$195 puts, for 10c debit - it needs SPY < $204 (if I recall correctly) to make some money in expiry week.....so paired with $214.5/$215 calls (is that right?)...that's a $20-wide kitty....
,,,NO, calls are $215/$215.5, as shown below....as of today's close, needs SPY >$211.75 or <$203.50 to b/e.............might be a tough nut
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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