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  • #11,121
  • Nov 4, 2015 9:17pm Nov 4, 2015 9:17pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I don't think JY will move the chip in Dec - I'd bet I am in the largest camp with that bias....sooooo, a Dec hike might be quite a mover....big surprise in holiday thin markets.....BOOM!.....anyway. nah, not gonna happen...but I am shopping Dec/Jan calendars as shown above....
Wonder if this Draghi jawboning about further easing is tipping the balance a bit in favor of a Dec hike ... . "Hey, there's cheap money over here! Don chew worry yer wee little heads about free money ... ."
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,122
  • Nov 4, 2015 9:20pm Nov 4, 2015 9:20pm
Quoting The Fool
d-day Thursday for this diagonal, b/e at $210, nice profit for a move under $209....no decent (~1%+) red candles since 9/28....if I were brave/crazy I might hold thru Friday and get a "good news=bad news" dump to the expiry sweet spot @ $207.50...or bleed out on the death slide.... {image}
Making my balls sweat just thinking about it ... . TMI, I know.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,123
  • Nov 4, 2015 9:20pm Nov 4, 2015 9:20pm
N/N4 SPY $199/198 - $215/216 DD really wants a move to <$205 @ Nov expiry
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-11-04_dd.png Size: 81 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,124
  • Nov 5, 2015 11:52am Nov 5, 2015 11:52am
Yesterday was new ATH for AMZN, GOOGL, PCLN... thinking about some fade trades for tomorrow... like maybe AMZN Nov6 650/647.50 put spread... already some volume on that spread today, for $0.75. There could be some trades with just buying OTM weeklies on those, idk...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,125
  • Edited 12:31pm Nov 5, 2015 12:10pm | Edited 12:31pm
A decent down move today when SPX lost 18 points in short time, and UVXY jumped $2, gave me yet another idea of throwing money out of the window ... since NFP is tomorrow and all -> UVXY Nov6 29/29.50 call spread for $0.13 (at midpoint currently, with UVXY @ $27.80)...

add-on
Of Course filling anything at midpoint on UVXY options is a mofo, especially combos with 0.5 strikes
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,126
  • Nov 5, 2015 12:33pm Nov 5, 2015 12:33pm
yeah the bears can't get shit done, maybe force a flatline day at best. However, with JY saying Dec hike is possible (not credible) maybe just maybe a big NFP beat Friday will give the bears something to work with. I need SPY $207.50 to make me happy. Otherwise everything sucks so fuck everything & everybody. I have not gotten in any VXX/UVXY trades, will be aiming Dec/Jan, as shown above, no sooner....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,127
  • Nov 5, 2015 12:38pm Nov 5, 2015 12:38pm
Quoting The Fool
yeah the bears can't get shit done, maybe force a flatline day at best. ....
I hear you on that one, amigo... Those hijo de puta teddy bears are a joke. Bad joke. No serious sellers around. And flat days - "never short a dull tape"...

I scalped DAX a bit today, one winner, one b/e... possibly closing the shop -> "move along nothing to see here"... I didn't like FB for some reasons, wanted to sell 94/113 strangle yesterday, but I didn't. I am in no hurry to trade, and especially in no hurry to lose money.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,128
  • Nov 5, 2015 2:21pm Nov 5, 2015 2:21pm
Quoting The Fool
I really need a pullback in US equities, <$208 SPY close Thursday would be sweet. Don't want to hold thru NFP. I thought $210 would push back some but noooo.
unless I see a crash to close I am holding....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,129
  • Nov 5, 2015 6:59pm Nov 5, 2015 6:59pm
I would personally like a ripping dip here soon ... . My delta's quite jacked up (beaucoup short) from this October rip. You can't buy into weakness if there ain't no ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,130
  • Nov 5, 2015 7:44pm Nov 5, 2015 7:44pm
Fed does the nasty deed at the Dec FOMC, VIX pops 10+ pts in 1-3 days
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-11-05_1743vxx.png Size: 71 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,131
  • Nov 6, 2015 8:37am Nov 6, 2015 8:37am
Quoting The Fool
maybe just maybe a big NFP beat Friday will give the bears something to work with.....
huge beat.....still not enough to make the bulls fear the Fed
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,132
  • Nov 6, 2015 8:58am Nov 6, 2015 8:58am
out of today's dicey SPY diag for 25c net, about half of maxP, too much drama....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,133
  • Nov 6, 2015 12:29pm Nov 6, 2015 12:29pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} huge beat.....still not enough to make the bulls fear the Fed
Nothing to fear there, nothing to see, just be happy and BTFD as usual...
Good or bad NFP nobody gives a fuck, there is promised Santa Claus rally, so hurry to buy if you don't want to miss that. Just by ATHs, and don't worry.

Yeah... well, only 2 months in SPX history with consecutive +8% gains are March and April 2009...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,134
  • Nov 6, 2015 1:02pm Nov 6, 2015 1:02pm
Quoting StrayDog
Good or bad NFP nobody gives a fuck, there is promised Santa Claus rally, ...
yeah, I think Santa's train is still on track. I still have to doubt JY would wreck Santa's party a week b4 Xmas, but maybe she will. Anyway, I am still thinking index rallies with new ath's into late Nov/early Dec, then VIX heating up as the Dec FOMC draws nigh. I am trying to get into a Dec/Dec4 VXX $30 calls diag for 5c, looks like it could go.

If when SPY pops back >$211 next week, I will start looking at selling Dec or possibly Dec5 call verts - I am still drawing a line at min 25c credit (and better 30c or better) on the 1$ spread for those verts, so we'll see what we can find....

Glad to get out of N1/N2 SPY $208/209 diags today for decent profit, I much prefer when the u/l price does not overshoot as it did on this one, but doing those perfectly is quite a feat....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,135
  • Nov 6, 2015 2:12pm Nov 6, 2015 2:12pm
Quoting The Fool
... If when SPY pops back >$211 next week, I will start looking at selling Dec or possibly Dec5 call verts - I am still drawing a line at min 25c credit (and better 30c or better) on the 1$ spread for those verts, so we'll see what we can find.
Agree with that.

Quoting The Fool
.... Glad to get out of N1/N2 SPY $208/209 diags today for decent profit, I much prefer when the u/l price does not overshoot as it did on this one, but doing those perfectly is quite a feat....
Good job there... a bit hairy on this one, but you made it.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,136
  • Nov 6, 2015 3:34pm Nov 6, 2015 3:34pm
Quoting StrayDog
Good job there... a bit hairy on this one, but you made it.
yep it was right on the bubble for the last few days, but the worst drawdown I saw was <15c....glad I waited, we'll see what the one we partnered on does....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,137
  • Nov 6, 2015 5:26pm Nov 6, 2015 5:26pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yeah, I think Santa's train is still on track. I still have to doubt JY would wreck Santa's party a week b4 Xmas, but maybe she will. Anyway, I am still thinking index rallies with new ath's into late Nov/early Dec, then VIX heating up as the Dec FOMC draws nigh. I am trying to get into a Dec/Dec4 VXX $30 calls diag for 5c, looks like it could go. If when SPY pops back >$211 next week, I will start looking at selling Dec or possibly Dec5 call verts - I am still drawing a line at min 25c credit (and better 30c or better) on the 1$ spread...
on getting out of the diags in profit ... . In and out my FB earnings play for 50% max; that TSLA 242 short call is still hanging on ... . I just had to go out another week ... . Damned if you do, damned if you don't ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,138
  • Nov 6, 2015 5:44pm Nov 6, 2015 5:44pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Nothing to fear there, nothing to see, just be happy and BTFD as usual... Good or bad NFP nobody gives a fuck, there is promised Santa Claus rally, so hurry to buy if you don't want to miss that. Just by ATHs, and don't worry. Yeah... well, only 2 months in SPX history with consecutive +8% gains are March and April 2009...
Amazes me that institutionals, retail, whoever is buying way the fuck up here unless it's a very short-term play ... .

Now that NFP's are past, I'm with TF and looking to enter SPY short call verts here somewhere with strike prices somewhat clear of 213 if I can get at least 1/3rd the width of the strikes, which may be a tall order in this volatility environment ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,139
  • Nov 6, 2015 6:10pm Nov 6, 2015 6:10pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I'm with TF and looking to enter SPY short call verts here somewhere with strike prices somewhat clear of 213 if I can get at least 1/3rd the width of the strikes, which may be a tall order in this volatility environment ... .
we will have to represent on the TA. To get anything over 30c on the $1-wide you have to start flirting with (I'm guessing) 30+ deltas if you are 6 weeks out - so, I will have to see more upside - show me SPY $212+ and then I will shop $217 short .... the Q's look like they will just go up 4ever, doing call diagonals might be the best bet there, with the short leg N4, D1 maybe...

If perchance we are gifted with a pullback next week, I will look to start the hunt with SPY short put verts......everything subject to change - I will be very interested to see what indices do next week, big NFP beat was not enough to scare the bulls today for more than a couple hours....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,140
  • Nov 6, 2015 6:12pm Nov 6, 2015 6:12pm
Quoting The Fool
I am trying to get into a Dec/Dec4 VXX $30 calls diag for 5c, looks like it could go. ....
surprised this never filled, it will be there later on
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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