Elliottwave-Forecast.com - Official Thread w/ Analysis Blogs

Winning or Misery and the Market Psychology

As everyone knows, the market has two sides and is very hard to forecast with a higher degree of acceptances. Market participants sometimes tend to forget the simple ideas that there are two sides trying to make money and been winners. The reality is that most traders lose money and end up having a short life as traders and consequently losing their savings and never understanding the real truth about the Market Nature.

The market requires a lot of mental strength and consequently each individual as a whole is different and not everyone is able to trade with the same degree of acceptances. As humans, we are all created with a different mind set and also we grow up in different environments which makes us different in one way or another. This is the main reason why many trading signal providers fail after all because followers do not respect the rules as presented by the provider. Markets make a living off traders inability to adjusted to the unexpected. We recommend a Theory which, we call, the Winning or Misery, referring to the two extremes of the trade, the limit or stop. Many traders are guilty of over thinking the Market and over analyzing the charts spending hours and ending up closing good positions early and leaving bad positions open for too long and too far against them. Our Philosophy is simple, use the Elliott wave Theory, other tools like cycles, correlations and any other tools that you feel comfortable with to trade and let the Market make the move and either take you to Winning (Limit) or Misery (Stop).

Money Management is huge and always risking the same percentage of the money (and adjusting position size based on stop distance) is the way which through which you could beat the Market, which is at the end your goal, and also the way to have a healthy life as a trader and Human. Nowadays, we got too many noises as compared to before. It was easier to trade 10 years ago within the whole Market world as there was no Social Media or close to non-existent, not too many Market Television channels and not many Market experts. The truth is that not everyone is saying the truth and not every one is sharing the right ideas. The Truth is that there is a crowd and many times, saying the Popular trade which never ends up happening without shaking many market participants is the way to gain followers.

We advise this Theory of Winning and Misery and avoiding all noise. Understanding that there are two sides which in some ways are enemies searching for the same goal i.e. making money. Elliott Wave Theory is a good tool to start with but it needs adjustments as it was discovered more than 80 years ago. At the end of the day, regardless of the analysis technique or trading tools used, it is good to follow Winning and Misery and understanding that the biggest Market Participants, which we call Market makers, are there to take your money as they have the ability to move the Market. Hence your goal is to make a Plan and trade the Plan, let the Market oscillate until it reaches Winning or Misery.

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EURCAD Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – November 04, 2015

Short term Elliott Wave view suggests decline to 1.4439 ended wave (w) and bounce to 1.4668 ended wave (x) as a FLAT. Pair has since resumed in wave (y) lower with the internals unfolding as a double correction. The first leg of the decline wave (a) ended at 1.4374, wave (b) bounce ended at 1.455, and pair has resumed lower in wave (c) of (y). Near term, wave x bounce is in progress towards 1.438 – 1.44 area, and as far as wave (x) pivot at 1.467 stays intact, pair is expected to resume the extension lower towards 1.41 – 1.42 to complete wave (y). We don’t like buying the proposed wave x bounce.



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EURCAD Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – November 05, 2015

Short term Elliott Wave view suggests decline to 1.4439 ended wave (w) and bounce to 1.4668 ended wave (x) as a FLAT. Pair has since resumed in wave (y) lower with the internals unfolding as a triple three, where wave w ended at 1.4374, wave x ended at 1.455, wave y ended at 1.4247, and second wave x bounce is in progress towards 1.44 – 1.4437 area before turning lower again. As far as wave (x) pivot at 1.467 stays intact, once the bounce is complete, pair is expected to resume the extension lower towards 1.41 – 1.42 to complete wave (y) of (X). We don’t like buying the proposed wave x bounce.



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US Dollar Bulls: Don’t Run before you Walk!

US Dollar has been trending higher since making marginal new lows in the daily chart on 8.24.2015. It is also closing in on 8.7.2015 peak, a break above that and the only hurdle left to break out higher would be 3.13.2015 peak. We keep hearing that FED could soon raise interest rates which could help US Dollar break out to the upside. We have NFP (Non-farm Payrolls) due on Friday, 6th November 2015 and expectations are US economy added 184k new jobs in the month of October. (142k in September).

Given USDX is trading at it’s highest levels since last 12 weeks, question is could NFP give US Dollar the push it needs to break above 3.13.2015 peak. We believe we can’t get the answer to this question through fundamentals because one can interpret fundamental data any way they want based on their bias of the market. If you are bullish US Dollar and NFP number is better than expected, you could say US Dollar should rally because a higher NFP number would increase expectations of a rate hike by FED. If you are bearish the US Dollar and NFP number is higher than expected, you could say it was priced in and that’s why US Dollar had been rallying for the last 3 weeks, so Dollar should sell.

We firmly believe Technicals are always a step ahead of fundamentals and fundamentals usually act as a catalyst to move the market or used as a tool to justify the moves that have happened already. Let’s take a look at 720 minute charts of USDCHF (USD – Swiss Franc) and USDPLN (USD – Poland Zloty) and see if we could get any clues about direction of the next big move in US Dollar.

USDCHF (USD-Swiss France, 720 minute chart)



We can see 2 key cycles in the above chart, 1 is from 5.7.2015 and the other one is from 8.24.2015. As we can see pair is quite close but has not yet reached 100% extensions in either of the 2 cycles. We think area between 1.0062 – 1.0294 is an area where the 2 cycles would get extreme (double extreme!) and hence would limit the upside in US Dollar. We have identified 11.2.2015 low (0.9827) to be a key level in the market, while above, US Dollar can extend higher but should struggle to get through 1.0062 – 1.0294 area and then sell off in 3 waves at least. Break below 11.2.2015 (0.9827) low could put the bears in control suggesting cycle 10.15.2015 cycle ended and most likely 8.24.2015 cycle as well.

USDPLN (USD – Poland Zloty, 720 minutes chart)




Not many traders probably look at this US Dollar pair but it also shows a cycle from 5.15.2015 getting extreme and while above 11.1.2015 low, pair could see some more upside but ideally should fail in 3.9646 – 4.0446 area to end the cycle from 8.24.2015 at least. It should then turn lower in 3 waves at least.
By looking at the 2 charts above, we can see US Dollar can see some more upside in the shorter cycles but cycles from 10.15.2015 and 8.24.2015 are getting mature which would not allow the Dollar to break above 3.13.2015 peak in this attempt at least and we should soon see the biggest selling in US Dollar since 8.24.2015 lows.

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CADJPY Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – November 10, 2015

Best reading of the Elliott Wave cycle suggests there are 5 swings from wave (X) low at 10/28 and another swing higher is ideal to complete a 7 swing structure as far as 92.12 pivot stays intact. Rally from wave (X) low at 90.56 is unfolding in a double three structure where wave W ended at 92.97, wave X is proposed over at 92.12, and wave Y is currently in progress. As far as 92.12 pivot is holding, pair is expected to resume higher in wave Y towards 94.5 – 95.1 area to end the cycle from 10/28 low, then it should turn lower at least in 3 waves per Elliott Wave hedging idea.



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AUDJPY Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – November 11, 2015

Best reading of the Elliott Wave cycle suggests decline to 85.41 ended wave (4). From this level, pair has resumed rally in wave (5) as a double three structure where wave W ended at 87.58, and wave X pullback is currently in progress towards 85.75 – 86.04 area. As far as 85.41 pivot stays intact during the pullback, the pair is expected to resume higher again to complete wave 5 towards 89 area. A break below 85.41 suggests the pair is doing a double correction from 10/12 peak and may open extension lower towards 83.65 – 84.4 area.



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AUDJPY Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – November 13, 2015

Best reading of the Elliott Wave cycle suggests decline to 85.41 ended wave (4). From this level, pair has resumed rally in wave (5) as a double three structure where wave W ended at 87.58, wave X pullback ended at 86.37, and wave Y is currently in progress. Internal of wave Y is unfolding as a double three structure where wave ((w)) ended at 87.95, wave ((x)) ended at 87.12, and wave ((y)) of Y is in progress towards 88.6 – 89.1 area. As far as wave ((x)) low at 87.12 is holding, but more importantly as far as 86.37 pivot stays intact, the pair is expected to resume higher to 88.6 – 89.1.



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AUDJPY Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – November 15, 2015

Best reading of the Elliott Wave cycle suggests decline to 85.42 ended wave (4). From this level, pair has resumed rally in wave (5) as a double three structure where wave W ended at 87.95, and wave X pullback is currently in progress. Internal of wave X is unfolding as a double three structure where wave ((w)) ended at 87.12, wave ((x)) ended at 87.68, and wave ((y)) of X is in progress towards 86.38 – 86.68 area. As far as wave (4) low at 85.42 pivot stays intact during wave X pullback, the pair is expected to find buyers from 86.38 – 86.68 area and has scope to resume higher to 88.6 – 89.1.



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EURGBP Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – November 18, 2015

Short term reading of the Elliott Wave cycle suggests decline to 0.705 ended wave (W) and bounce to 0.7197 ended wave (X). From this level, pair has resumed the decline lower in a double three structure where wave W ended at 0.7038, wave X ended at 0.711, and wave Y is in progress. Internal of wave Y is unfolding as a double three structure where wave ((w)) is proposed complete at 0.6983, and the pair is in wave ((x)) bounce in 3, 7, or 11 swing before turning lower again. We don’t like buying the proposed wave ((x)) bounce. As far as 0.711 pivot stays intact during wave ((x)) bounce, pair is expected to resume lower towards 0.691 – 0.695 area to complete wave ((y)) of Y.



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Oil Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – November 25, 2015

Short term reading of the Elliott Wave cycle suggests the decline to 39 at 11/21 ended wave ((B)) and oil has turned higher in a double three structure where wave (w) ended at 41.66, wave (x) ended at 40.41, and wave (y) of ((w)) is proposed complete at 43.46. Wave ((x)) pullback is currently in progress to correct 11/21 cycle in 3, 7, or 11 swing, ideally reaching 40.65 – 41.18 (50 – 61.8 retracement). As far as pivot at 39 is intact during wave ((x)) pullback, oil is expected to resume higher again.



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USDX and USDPLN | Technical & Fundamental Outlook

Thursday December 03 2015
– ECB Interest Rate Decision 14.45
– ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference 15.30
Friday December 04 2015
– European Gross Domestic Product (Q3 and YoY)
– US Average Hourly Earnings
– US Unemployment Rate
– US Non-Farm Payrolls
Wednesday December 16 2015
– FOMC

ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference due to December the 3rd is most likely to repeat past Statements that is ECB can and will take additional Quantitative Easing measures if that is needed. The reason for such a call, comes from the fact that ECB Members still have not decided on how to proceed with additional QE while inflation still below the 2%. That comes in line with the fact that it is expected ECB will frontload purchases between November the 27th and December the 21st as QE will temporarily stop on December the 22nd until January the 1st 2016.
Some of the recent exposed scenarios for additional QE from ECB are:

1. Introduce a negative interest rate for Banks having parked money with ECB
2. Start buying non-performing loans
3. Extend the QE program past September 2016
4. Increase the 60bln asset purchase program monthly limit

Since time until Statement is running out and ECB Members most likely will not be able to extensively evaluate the above mentioned scenarios, odds tend for no action on December meeting with some minors odds for going with a negative interest rate for Banks parking Money with ECB since any other action would additionally devaluate the Euro Currency against all others currencies and thus create additional problems with SNB and FED’s potential Rate Hike.

When it comes to USA, Non-Farm Payrolls due to next Friday the 04th and indeed should be a major figure to watch when it comes to FOMC Rate Hike decision scheduled for the 16th of December. Market Odds are now at 70% in favor of a Rate Hike on December.

Yet as it has been seen lately, the importance of NFP number has been overshadowed by the hourly earning numbers (wages) which comes out the same time with NFP. Even if NFP come again strong for November as it came out for October at 271K and wages fail to extend higher FED should most probably expect headwinds on proceeding with a Rate Hike on December while that should indicate that inflation is not picking up as it should.

Getting away from the events and while examining the current situation in US economy , it is already known that inflation has not reached FED’s 2% target, and even worst, inflation still extending slower to what was anticipated towards the target. One major drawback is coming from low energy prices, and more specifically from Oil which has been seen trading as low as 39.00 past week due to Global Risks and due to Dollar’s additional strength. Another drawback that should show up later is coming directly from Dollar’s Strength against all other currencies which should already and continue to slow US exports. Worth to note that US is one of the biggest countries in exporting goods worldwide and thus any slowdown in that sector should dramatically affect the US Economy negatively.

Coming back to the energy area, it has been mentioned repeatedly that low energy prices are slowing down the inflation momentum towards reaching FED’s 2% target. As has been mentioned by Janet Yellen, Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System during previous FOMC events, one different way to boost inflation would be to have unemployment rate decline towards the 4.7% – 4.6% level, below the 4.9% – 4.8% optimal or normal unemployment rate so to help wages pick up quicker and thus help inflation pick up further towards the target but that case would require additional time as we are not there yet.

To round up things, FOMC has to take some difficult calls while Rate Hike Decision is due for mid-December. A potential Rate hike should appreciate Dollar and lower energy prices even more with eventually unwanted effects on the US inflation and on the US exports and thus instead of helping the US economy, make it worst. While adding the odds ECB should be set to proceed with additional QE during the next coming months which will eventually devaluate Euro currency more, plus the latest Geopolitics Developments causing Global uncertainty with Syria, Turkey and Russia, logic tends towards the fact that FOMC will not proceed with a Rate Hike in December and if they will, they should only raise just by 0.05 – 0.10 basis points max, if they intend to keep the US Economy away from unwanted Risks.

With all above aspects on the table and translating the possibilities and probabilities into the Financial Markets, current Technical analysis calling USDX in extremes should be valid as a potential FED Rate Hike should most probably back fire at the US Economy. Thus before ECB proceeds with additional QE, USDX currencies should correct recent rallies for at least until FED has more clear view of the Global Risks coming from the economical and geopolitical developments or at least before ECB extends with more QE

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$OIL: Elliott Waves Forecasting the decline

In this blog we’re going to take a quick look at the $OIL Elliott Wave chart from the 11.10.2015 to explain the structure and our view. We were forecasting the decline in $OIL from marked 50-76.4 fib ret zone: 44.37-77.78 toward h4 equal legs (W)-(X): 40.13 area

$OIL 11.10.2015 London As we can see on the chart below, H1 view is bearish against the 48.36 pivot . If we look closely, we’ll se that we already got clear 7th swing pattern from the 48.36 high which has ended at 43.83 as wave W. Our system suggested that X bounce has corrected entire decline from the 48.36 and completed at 45.11 as shallow recovery. After that , we got the new low marked as (w) blue. Currently (x) blue is in progress toward marked 50-76.4 fib ret area: 44.37-11.78 from where further drop should ideally follow.
http://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-c...ber-London.jpg

$OIL 11.10.2015 London The price reached upper line of blue box 76.4 fibs at 44.78 and gave us short term reactionf from there. While below that level and more importantly below 45.11, wave X red correction is done and further drop is expected toward h4 equal legs 40.13 area.

http://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-c...Mid-day-NY.jpg

$OIL 11.13.2015 London Short term high at 45.11 held nicely and we got the decline as forecasted and it still has a room to go lower… Current charts of $OIL could be found in EWF membership area.

http://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-c...er-London1.jpg

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FTSE Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – December 02, 2015

Short term reading of the Elliott Wave cycle suggests the rally from wave (4) low at 6079.8 is unfolding in a double three structure where wave W ended at 6366.8, wave X ended at 6221.04, and wave Y is in progress. Internal of wave Y is unfolding also in a double three where wave ((w)) ended at 6395.3, wave ((x)) ended at 6329.9, and pair has resumed higher. As far as wave X pivot at 6221.04 stays intact, the Index is expected to resume higher in wave ((y)) of Y towards 6506 – 6574.5.



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ECB Rate Decision and EURUSD

ECB Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference due for Thursday the 3rd of December at 12:45 UTC and 13:30 UTC Time respectively.
Markets expects ECB will act with additional QE tomorrow, yet unknown how Dovish ECB President Draghi will sound during the Press Conference after today’s weak inflation reading as indicated via the Consumer Price Index release coming at 0.1% versus the forecasted 0.2%.

The Majority of Economic Analysts are pointing towards four possible case scenarios ECB could proceed with to add additional stimulus via the Quantitative Easing program and help the EU Inflation pick up.

As we have mentioned earlier via our USDX and USDPLN | Technical & Fundamental Outlook article posted at November the 26th of 2015 we cited the following case scenarios.

The first case scenario which seems more likely currently is the case that the ECB will proceed with adding additional pressure to EU Banks reserves parked with ECB and cut the deposit rate further down to -0.4% from -0.2% as of today.

The second scenario coming in next, would be to increase the 60bn EUR monthly Purchase Program of QE to 75bn EUR per month.

The third scenario and currently unlikely would be the case to announce that the Purchase Program will run for another six months in addition to the September 2016 expiry as of today.

The fourth and last case scenario would be that ECB will be buying from EU Banks non-performing loans. Yet we believe the case is still out of a possible call for now.
As all case scenarios should provide additional pressure to the EURUSD currency pair, we expect that the first case should create during the event new lows in EURUSD and then help it to extend higher while all other scenarios or a combination of two or more cases should keep the EURUSD under pressure.

While we firmly believe Technical Analysis is always a step ahead of Fundamental Events and thus Fundamentals usually act as a catalyst to move the market towards the predefined direction, therefore regardless the ECB event, we see a very mature cycle in EURUSD with new lows showing lack of momentum but it has not shown that it’s over yet. While below 12.1.2015 (1.0634) and more importantly below 11.19.2015 (1.0763) pair should ideally make another low to complete a possible Ending Diagonal structure from 11/12 peak and then turn higher in 3 waves at least. Worth to mention that break and hold below diagonal lower trend line or momentum (RSI) divergence getting erased at new lows could see the pair extending to 1.0413 area before bouncing.



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Nikkei Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – December 08, 2015

Short term Elliott Wave cycle suggests rally to 20060 ended wave ((X)). From this level, Index has turned lower in a double three structure where wave ((w)) ended at 19395, wave ((x)) ended at 19840, and wave ((y)) lower is in progress. Internal of wave ((y)) is unfolding as a double three structure and near term focus is for the completion of wave (w) towards 19329 – 19426 area, then Index should bounce in wave (x), ideally correcting 50 – 61.8 back of the decline from wave ((x)) high at 19840, before the decline resumes again.



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Though the economic data looks much better with the job growth, stronger stock market and fed's decision on raising interest rates, the reality is that the economy is still recovering from the huge recession of 2008. Also, with some the economic data like growing debt levels and sluggish GDP growth, the fear is arising about the economy to enter another recession in coming years.
US Economic Forecast 2016

EURUSD in light of Macroeconomics and Geopolitics

European Central Bank during last meeting decided to extend the Quantitative Easing program by lowering the EU Banks Deposit Rate down to -0.30% from -0.20% and by postponing the QE expiry towards March 2017.

While the Market was expecting more QE via lower Interest Rates and more monthly purchases above the 60bln as of today, EURUSD sky rocketed by approximately 450 pips from 1.0515 lows to 1.0980’s and European Indices pledge lower as inversed correlated.

While EU Macroeconomic fundamentals are not improving as ECB was estimating, it is most likely the QE program sooner or later will fail to boost the EU inflation towards the 2.0%.

The case is supported while Greece, Spain and Portugal political environment should be at least considered not stable. Greek Left Government Coalition is losing power while has abandoned all pre elections promises and has proceeded with introducing additional austerity measures in line with Troika directions. Most Economists have already been mentioning that the Greek economy cannot sustain any more austerity while it is on the prominence to entirely collapse.

One more case to support the bad political and economic situation within the European Nation is the coming elections in Spain. While most pollsters are forecasting a complex political panorama, it is certain that Spain’s elections coming the 20th of December will be a tough battle between currently PM Mariano Rajoy and his PP party and the rising left wing anti austerity parties.

Portugal political climate is not standing far away from the rest as mentioned above. On the October the 4th, the ruling right-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD) and Democratic and Social Centre-People’s Party (CDS-PP) coalition lost its parliamentary majority just few days later the BE political party to back up the PS party and continue with the austerity program. It seems until today that the coalition is working, yet the political scenery remains fragile.

Worth to mention that Unemployment in the above countries remains high (25.6% for Greece, 22.5% for Spain and 12.4% for Portugal) and should be a matter of time until these countries’ economies collapse while austerity leaves no room for businesses to breathe and citizens to struggle with poverty.
One more event to come in line with the subject is the recent complications as Syrian Refugees were forced to leave their country and seek protection within EU. The scene got even more complicated post recent France terrorist attack which boosted Ms. Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far right to take the poll in the initial round of regional elections past Sunday the 6th of December. Worth to mark that Far Right in Greece is holing strong and currently holds the 3rd place as a political power in the Greek parliament.
Worth to mention as well latest developments with Russia and Turkey post Turks shooting down a Russian jet fighter. It is expected that those developments are already and should continue have an impact at the EU while geographically the tension is close to Greece and Italy.

One more brick in the wall comes with United Kingdom’s referendum that is to question the Europe Union membership by the end of 2017.

I will not go in details over VW’s emissions Scandal, which will affect Germans GDP and export numbers in coming months.

Trying to close the story here before we extend into more details and thus more pages, if we were to make a call today about EU’s political, geopolitical and economic environment one thing is for sure, EU is sailing in unchartered waters.

Europe Union as a whole has some major issues to face and judging from the economic climate, EURUSD even as a funding currency will face many challenges ahead while EU counties start to blow out. Even if FED does not raise interest rates or even worst adopt again a QE program to have the Dollar devaluated while exports shrink, EURUSD should extend heavy below parity within 2016 – 17.

Trade Safe & Good Luck
Spiridon C. Dalietos

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Nikkei Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – December 10, 2015

Short term Elliott Wave cycle suggests rally to 20060 ended wave ((X)). From this level, Index has turned lower and reached 100% equal leg, therefore the cycle is mature. However, in the short term, the Index still can extend lower as far as 19844 pivot stays intact. Decline from 20060 is unfolding as a triple three structure where wave ((w)) ended at 19395, wave ((x)) ended at 19844, wave ((y)) ended at 18875, and pair is currently in the second wave ((x)) bounce before turning lower one more time to finish wave ((z)). As far as 19844 pivot stays intact, expect another leg lower once second wave ((x)) bounce is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing.



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ASX All Ordinaries Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – December 15, 2015

Short term Elliott Wave cycle suggests rally to 5420 on 10/23 ended wave “x”. From this level, Index has turned lower in wave ((W)) with the internal unfolding as a double three structure where wave (W) ended at 5041 and wave (X) ended at 5334. Wave (Y) still has a scope lower towards 4865 – 4955 area to complete wave ((W)) before a larger bounce in wave ((X)) is seen to correct the cycle from 10/23 peak. A break below 8/24 pivot low at 4936 suggests that the Index has likely resumed the decline lower and another swing lower is likely after the bounce in wave ((X)) is completed.



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