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The $200 Challenge

  • #21
  • Nov 5, 2015 9:32am Nov 5, 2015 9:32am
Leave the guy alone he is playing and having fun. Using high leverage will always be a fun thing to do but will crush you eventually... Trade well.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #22
  • Nov 5, 2015 1:50pm Nov 5, 2015 1:50pm
Quoting billytt
Using high leverage will always be a fun thing to do but will crush you eventually... Trade well.
High leverage is not what crushes you. What crushes you is yourself. It is a common misconception about leverage.
If I was to ask this forum, why do different levels of leverage exist how many people would be able to say something more intelligent besides what google will always bring up "Higher leverage means you can earn more, but also lose more. Be careful...."

I am curious why do you think different leverage options exist and when to use which. I mean its a fundamental part of trading, which I do not think more than 5% of traders understand in a tangible, practical, usable way.
  • #23
  • Nov 5, 2015 3:00pm Nov 5, 2015 3:00pm
<p>[quote=Forexville;8577527]{quote} High leverage is not what crushes you. What crushes you is yourself. It is a common misconception about leverage. If I was to ask this forum, why do different levels of leverage exist how many people would be able to say something more intelligent besides what google will always bring up &quot;
You miss my point bud. Trade and show the gains without leverage.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #24
  • Nov 5, 2015 3:19pm Nov 5, 2015 3:19pm
You mean show how many pips you made or some other statistic? Like risk-reward ratio? Sharpe'? Profit factor? Relative drawdown?

In any case the goal of this challenge is to take a small amount of money, apply what you learned, have others learn from it, hopefully profit, cash the profit out, go to an Apple store and buy a shiny new trophy, which brings a smile to your face, reminding you of what exactly you accomplished. Its why I trade. To make money. Sometimes lose money as well. But mainly to make money.
  • #25
  • Nov 5, 2015 10:37pm Nov 5, 2015 10:37pm
So it seems that the EA has developed some pretty strong views in regards to the GBPUSD, quite a confident bearish position that it has legged into.
Interestingly, the sentiment of traders on the forexfactory is 66% long vs 33% being short at the moment, which is quite scare as everyone seems to be convinced that the GBPUSD will bounce up. Personally, I have no views regarding which way the action will go, so I am definitely not going to meddle. I will let the EA trade through the position it has gotten itself into. Currently things are pretty sideways, but I can definitely see a rise in price to trigger people to go long and then the price going down further resembling a 1-2-3 down pattern. Anyhow, time will tell.
  • #26
  • Nov 6, 2015 12:14am Nov 6, 2015 12:14am
Quoting asad111720
You are going down and down . You should have close all your trade
did you mean "YOU" yourself???

Doesn't matter... we can tell...
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We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #27
  • Nov 6, 2015 12:18am Nov 6, 2015 12:18am
Quoting billytt
Quoting Forexville
High leverage is not what crushes you. What crushes you is yourself. It is a common misconception about leverage. If I was to ask this forum, why do different levels of leverage exist how many people would be able to say something more intelligent besides what google will always bring up
You miss my point bud. Trade and show the gains without leverage.
you cant compare 1:1 and 1:400... you should compare people who trade with leverage of 1:400 with others who have leverage of 1:400...
please compare apple to apple...

Just because you have a 1:400 doesn't mean you place a trade that completely uses all 400 of your 1:400 leverage account...

most of the time I only use 5:400 per trade leaving me 395 of my leverage space open for more trades....

so this means that you're not supposed to discount any gains of a 1:400 leverage account by 1/400 to match and compare the returns on a non-leveraged 1:1 account. it simply doesn't work like that....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #28
  • Nov 6, 2015 12:37am Nov 6, 2015 12:37am
Quoting Forexville
So it seems that the EA has developed some pretty strong views in regards to the GBPUSD, quite a confident bearish position that it has legged into. Interestingly, the sentiment of traders on the forexfactory is 66% long vs 33% being short at the moment, which is quite scare as everyone seems to be convinced that the GBPUSD will bounce up. Personally, I have no views regarding which way the action will go, so I am definitely not going to meddle. I will let the EA trade through the position it has gotten itself into. Currently things are pretty sideways,...
Phew, looks like the EA was right this time, although very close....it opened trades in super sideways market.

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  • #29
  • Nov 6, 2015 2:03am Nov 6, 2015 2:03am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote}{quote} you cant compare 1:1 and 1:400... you should compare people who trade with leverage of 1:400 with others who have leverage of 1:400... please compare apple to apple... Just because you have a 1:400 doesn't mean you place a trade that completely uses all 400 of your 1:400 leverage account... most of the time I only use 5:400 per trade leaving me 395 of my leverage space open for more trades.... so this means that you're not supposed to discount any gains of a 1:400 leverage account by 1/400 to match and compare the returns on a non-leveraged...
fxtyrant seems to understand why you want to use different leverage.

See it is actually a very complicated problem deciding which leverage to use. It highly depends on how you trade...for example how I made my EA is as follows:
It will trade and trade until some condition is met, meaning it will try to trade out of unfavorable positions and it will also try to fill up the cup as the trades become profitable. How it does this is not 100% consistent and we have to balance having free margin for some percent of time when we are wrong and have to trade out.
It all depends on probabilities of drawdown distributions, market volatility, account size and hedging strategies employed. Problem is further complicated when you use machine learning as a part of your strategy as it usually represents a non-linear, non-continuous function, which is hard to evaluate using standard statistical methods.

Bottom line: ​Know your strategy very well and understand why you use the type of leverage you currently have selected.
  • #30
  • Nov 6, 2015 5:31am Nov 6, 2015 5:31am
Quoting Forexville
{quote} fxtyrant seems to understand why you want to use different leverage. See it is actually a very complicated problem deciding which leverage to use. It highly depends on how you trade...for example how I made my EA is as follows: It will trade and trade until some condition is met, meaning it will try to trade out of unfavorable positions and it will also try to fill up the cup as the trades become profitable. How it does this is not 100% consistent and we have to balance having free margin for some percent of time when we are wrong and have...
If anything, having leverage is an advantage, me personally I don't use any Stop loss on my trades but because I only use 1% on each trade for my Leverage available... say I have 1:400, each trade I only trade at lot sizes which only holds 1:4 of my leverage.
this allows me enough capacity to trade my way out in case my first trade is in drawdown.

and me personally being a consistent trader would get you out of any troubles. as long as you got a good money management and a good understanding of fundamental trading.

just have a look at my Trade explorer... yep plenty of people would say its only a demo, but where others play with demo like a gamble, I trade the demo like its real money, oh and I actually have a live account linked to it.

here's a snippet to show for it.

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Turned

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Notice the Drawdown I suffered in August, well I had enough money to trade out of it thx god.

anyways anyone's more than welcome to follow me on twitter or Skype, go to my profile for details.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #31
  • Nov 6, 2015 10:39am Nov 6, 2015 10:39am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} If anything, having leverage is an advantage, me personally I don't use any Stop loss on my trades but because I only use 1% on each trade for my Leverage available... say I have 1:400, each trade I only trade at lot sizes which only holds 1:4 of my leverage. this allows me enough capacity to trade my way out in case my first trade is in drawdown. and me personally being a consistent trader would get you out of any troubles. as long as you got a good money management and a good understanding of fundamental trading. just have a look at my...
Trading out off a drawdown is a tricky topic and it is sort of the art of trading, where you scale back on your unfavorable positions as you gain more points through new trades. I am not doing that in this EA as that is a pretty tough strategy to conjure up.

I have a new idea for the EA:
It is essentially an algorithm which doesn't necessarily predict the price movement, but rather analyzes the patterns in your equity curve. I feel the equity curve is sort of like the pulse of your EA and you need some sort of a nurse to keep checking it making sure that what your trading EA is doing within the range of normal. See, we all can anticipate when an unfavorable turn in drawdown takes place, but we respond to it in emotionally driven and non-standard ways. I think I will code something up that raises flags, like red, yellow and green which in turn the EA should use as feedback on how its doing. Then in turn the EA should increase positions if its going in the green zone and likewise, it should start accepting losses if its in red as opposed to trying to trade out of them. Its just a concept. The way I would do that is using a learning also which is trained on past equity curves and tested out of sample for the classification of zones, and then its utility tested in future trading.
  • #32
  • Nov 6, 2015 10:59am Nov 6, 2015 10:59am
Quoting Forexville
{quote} Trading out off a drawdown is a tricky topic and it is sort of the art of trading, where you scale back on your unfavorable positions as you gain more points through new trades. I am not doing that in this EA as that is a pretty tough strategy to conjure up. I have a new idea for the EA: It is essentially an algorithm which doesn't necessarily predict the price movement, but rather analyzes the patterns in your equity curve. I feel the equity curve is sort of like the pulse of your EA and you need some sort of a nurse to keep checking it...
Good idea, question is how does the EA define normal movements in the equity?
Ur equity could fall 1% day after day and still be considered normal if parameters are not set properly
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #33
  • Nov 6, 2015 11:25am Nov 6, 2015 11:25am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Good idea, question is how does the EA define normal movements in the equity? Ur equity could fall 1% day after day and still be considered normal if parameters are not set properly

Yeah, I mean there is numerous methods.
Essentially:
- we plot the perTick equity curve for the EA historically while it was trading.
- we can apply statistical analysis to the curve, very much the same people apply it to price action data
_____________
SIDEBAR:
Almost 100% of traders apply statical analysis to price action data which is essentially a value diffusing back forth (i.e. oscillating) along the changing average perceived value of a currency cross. That is tough stuff and applying what you extract from your analysis to generate trade ideas is really remarkable work, and probably why its very hard to have reliable market entries on shorter scales (i.e. intraday trading is largely more difficult than daily, weekly, and so on).
Wouldn't it make sense to apply just as rigorous statistical analysis to the outcomes of the decisions you make?
____________

So we can apply some very basic statistics to the equity curve,

1) Take a moving average of equity
2) Find the rate of change in equity
3) Look at the equity curve prior to closing profitable trades. If your equity curve is shooting straight up when you close profitable trades, you can explore using some sort of a trailing stop (my EA is guilty of not using trailing exits or partial closes and definitely will exit profitable trades too early or it won't lock in significant profits)
4) If your EA is not changing its sentiment when the equity curve is going down fast, you should make some sort of adjustment in the way it chooses to trade as this is a risky strategy and can lead to huge drawdown (once again, my EA is guilty of this, but maybe some of this does make it profitable).


However, in the end I want to use machine learning for as much as possible and not use statistical 'indicators' as indicators have robustness, but they lack insight, which is something which the human trader contributes to a trading strategy and is difficult to implement in an EA with any sort of efficacy, esp if the person is inexperienced.
  • #34
  • Nov 6, 2015 12:38pm Nov 6, 2015 12:38pm
Something I noticed with my EA.

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My EA just functions and generates trades on the basis of price action, so it really has no idea what time of day it is directly at least . Hence it has a generally 2 prime times, with percent of winners relatively constant. However, if you look at where it generates the largest amount of losers its definitely at 16:00 as well as 15:00 which is when most of the big money will move, intraday institutional traders are closing all positions creating maximum chaos depending on how they speculated throughout the day. I guess some of the bank employed traders have rigid rules which tell them they must close out before going of duty.
Then they get back in the morning or whichever and they put in some trades and this generates some volatility which the EA tries to exploit. Then there seems to be a universal lunch time/ waiting & holding period and then a different timezone session starts and other session traders go home, where they clash seems to be around 1600. You can essentially derive from this when most big money traders come in to trade, when they exit.

You can further correlate this with volume data and try to figure out which part of volume on a cross is the big money and what percent is retail traders of sorts.

You can also use this data to carve out optimal times to trade and to avoid when using an EA. Also, you can weight your risk profile based on where your entries seem to be most profitable, allowing your strategy to take on more risk.

It's not those who are smartest and strongest who survive but those who adapt the most.
  • #35
  • Nov 8, 2015 1:42am Nov 8, 2015 1:42am
Quoting Forexville
Something I noticed with my EA. {image} My EA just functions and generates trades on the basis of price action, so it really has no idea what time of day it is directly at least . Hence it has a generally 2 prime times, with percent of winners relatively constant. However, if you look at where it generates the largest amount of losers its definitely at 16:00 as well as 15:00 which is when most of the big money will move, intraday institutional traders are closing all positions creating maximum chaos depending on how they speculated throughout the...
Interesting article which exactly explains why my EA as well as most of other traders have most difficulty trading @1600 and the am.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/arb...t-correlations
  • #36
  • Nov 15, 2015 5:59pm Nov 15, 2015 5:59pm
So just a quick update:
We hit the newest Highest high, of $600!
We also hit 100 trades done. Tumultous couple weeks, but that is to be expected when you are trading a super micro account.
To remind the late comers here, the purpose of this challenge is not to showcase how to trade using perfect risk management (something that is well worth going over) but rather to show how it is possible to make real world money using a minimal investment. My goal is to make a 1000% return on the investment within rather short time using a full automatic system using high leverage and relatively high tolerance for risk as we started the project with just a $200. I hope it is entertaining and inspiring some trade ideas in my followers.

What are the odds of hitting a a 1000% mark? I would say around 50% and 50% chance blowing up the account. If you are good at math, you can see that our expected value is roughly $1000 if it is indeed 50:50 chance. It's a different way of looking at risk. We are risking 200 to make 1000 in the long run, if our strategy works 50% of the time. even if it only works 20% of time we are still making money. So that is the rationale for not using stop loss as well as using high leverage and all other high risk aspects of this particular system. Stay tuned and lets see if we can cross that magical 4 digit returns mark which nobody really can do consistently or even bothers trying. Have fun
  • #38
  • Edited 11:10pm Nov 23, 2015 10:45pm | Edited 11:10pm
Quoting Shiv999
Hidden
I'm not scamming anyone. meanwhile can you not post nonsense like this?
You're pretty much useless.

Show us your performance then we'll talk.

My gut feeling tells me you got nothing to show. so just shut your mouth until you do.

Quoting Forexville
So just a quick update: We hit the newest Highest high, of $600! We also hit 100 trades done. Tumultous couple weeks, but that is to be expected when you are trading a super micro account. To remind the late comers here, the purpose of this challenge is not to showcase how to trade using perfect risk management (something that is well worth going over) but rather to show how it is possible to make real world money using a minimal investment. My goal is to make a 1000% return on the investment within rather short time using a full automatic system...
meanwhile what happened to your performance, you dropped a lot of your balance dude....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #40
  • Nov 24, 2015 3:31am Nov 24, 2015 3:31am
Quoting Shiv999
Hidden
Think you need to take a chill pill and heed your own advise sometimes.

Otherwise, show me how i am scamming people. im not even charging anyone for following me.... scam involves me putting up a service which i charge people for it. with me putting up my trade explorer for every one to see... im not really doing a good job now if i was gona charge people for my "services" when its free for all to follow.

better put a sock in that dirty mouth of yours.

So first people complain im only trading in demo and not in live, so i posted up on a link to myfxbook with all the accounts i trade, including 2 live accounts.
then people call me a scam. jeesh, well i aint losing any money and im not even charging anyone. so maybe you should grow up instead.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
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