Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 321 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #6,401
  • Oct 31, 2015 3:12pm Oct 31, 2015 3:12pm
hello mr alfonso I have some question plz can you help me ? :

1/ if my enter time frame is H4 and there is an uptrend in a HTF let's say the D1 and that trend is broken so I'm allowed to set and forget on D1 demand area that are not CP and those levels must be fresh and original else of that I have to wait for confirmation on my H4 TF !! confirmation is brand new Demand areas on H4 : my question is did those brand new area must remove H4 supply areas to be able to trade on those levels or the form is enough ?

2/ if I found a D1 Demand , fresh and original area do I have only to set and forget on that level or I could set and forget on H4 Demand level within that D1 area ? if yes the level on H4 must be fresh and original also or fresh is enough ?

3/ For me I want to trade swing so my TF is H4 : so what other TF should I analyse ? D1 and WK ? D1 WK and MN ? D1 MN ?

thank you sir
  • #6,402
  • Nov 1, 2015 3:21am Nov 1, 2015 3:21am
hi,

First time poster to the thread thanks for all the hard work its a lot of detail.

I am after a little help or chat about usdcad

the way i see it
monthly demand is up
weekly is up

daily I am not sure about because i am not sure and questioning where the recent demand areas are on the move up, supply was removed on the recent move up, so my question is has daily demand been removed on the daily again and i should expect a move back to the lows?

Perhaps i am wrong and weekly is still down and out of alignment until 1.3458 is removed
  • #6,403
  • Nov 1, 2015 6:06am Nov 1, 2015 6:06am
Quoting mohamedbaha
hello mr alfonso I have some question plz can you help me ? : 1/ if my enter time frame is H4 and there is an uptrend in a HTF let's say the D1 and that trend is broken so I'm allowed to set and forget on D1 demand area that are not CP and those levels must be fresh and original else of that I have to wait for confirmation on my H4 TF !! confirmation is brand new Demand areas on H4 : my question is did those brand new area must remove H4 supply areas to be able to trade on those levels or the form is enough ? 2/ if I found a D1 Demand , fresh and...
Hi,

If the trend is broken on the daily you should wait for price to reach weekly demand,

I ask myself what broke the daily trend and if it is weekly supply it will take weekly demand to stop the price falling further, because the supply that broke the daily will most likely remove the h4 areas of supply too.

this is assuming that monthly is up and weekly areas of demand are being respected.
  • #6,404
  • Nov 2, 2015 2:24am Nov 2, 2015 2:24am
Quoting mohamedbaha
hello mr alfonso I have some question plz can you help me ? : 1/ if my enter time frame is H4 and there is an uptrend in a HTF let's say the D1 and that trend is broken so I'm allowed to set and forget on D1 demand area that are not CP and those levels must be fresh and original else of that I have to wait for confirmation on my H4 TF !! confirmation is brand new Demand areas on H4 : my question is did those brand new area must remove H4 supply areas to be able to trade on those levels or the form is enough ? 2/ if I found a D1 Demand , fresh and...
Hello Mohammed,

Please upload charts and explain all that on them, it's very confusing to read just text without the scenario. If you wrote that is because you have seen that scenario. Place upload all those charts.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,405
  • Nov 2, 2015 2:26am Nov 2, 2015 2:26am
Quoting n_aftab
hi, First time poster to the thread thanks for all the hard work its a lot of detail. I am after a little help or chat about usdcad the way i see it monthly demand is up weekly is up daily I am not sure about because i am not sure and questioning where the recent demand areas are on the move up, supply was removed on the recent move up, so my question is has daily demand been removed on the daily again and i should expect a move back to the lows? Perhaps i am wrong and weekly is still down and out of alignment until 1.3458 is removed
Please upload charts based on what you say. An image is worth a thousand words!

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,406
  • Nov 2, 2015 2:27am Nov 2, 2015 2:27am
Quoting CitiFRX
Hi Alfonso, i have traded your Snd strategy for months and i tell myself that this is the best strategy i have ever seen. I love it. I have found out questions that can't be solved through reading your threads or watching your videos, one of the things im confused is in defining CP and curve. For me, certain CP or curves are very difficult to be defined such as the 3 circles i hv highlighted in the pic below. Kindly advise on the circles whether they r CPs or curves. Thanks Alfonso. {image}
There are rules to define CPs, but it takes experience to locate them appropiately. The curve is defined by peaks and valleys on any timeframe. CPs are used for the curve only when price is trending on that timeframe, else they can't be part of the curve since a CP is a continuation of the trend.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,407
  • Nov 3, 2015 1:38pm Nov 3, 2015 1:38pm
Hi Alfonso, my great mentor and friend. Hello to all the others.

Few day's ago one of my trades hits TP. It was very good trade with S&D realignment rules and I want to share it here.

AUDUSD short on 0,7373

Situation:
D1 is up TL broken
W1 is down TL broken (this is my exception from the rules)
MN is down TL not broken

good looking, fresh supply zone on W1 but on pin bar -> you never get the ideal situation
zone make 1:2 in two bars, max 1:5.5
SL 70 pip TP on 1:3 ; price move more then 1:4

My question for Alonso is: how about the TL? I see some situations when TL is broken(like in this case) but trade go very well. I know that you too don't always stick to the TL rule, what can u say about this?I think is about presentiment or maybe another market circumstances? It always hard to judge for me..

Cheers,
Rafał
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: D1.jpg Size: 396 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: W1.jpg Size: 377 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: MN.jpg Size: 310 KB
  • #6,408
  • Nov 3, 2015 1:40pm Nov 3, 2015 1:40pm
Quoting darko40
Alfonso Witam, mam pytanie dotyczące filmy życia lub można dodać tekst, bo wszystko to, co nie mwią po angielsku, możemy przetłumaczyć tekst. ? Pozdrawiam
Nie rób siary gościu i się poducz angielskiego.. nauczyciel ma się dla ciebie języka uczyć? no zastanów się..
i tak większość wartościowej wiedzy jest po angielsku wiec jak chcesz się coś dowiedzieć to cie to nie ominie..
  • #6,409
  • Nov 4, 2015 4:38am Nov 4, 2015 4:38am
i think a simpler way of me asking is

what is causing the move lower is it monthly or weekly?

and are longs still the way to go , shorts not allowed
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,410
  • Nov 4, 2015 1:17pm Nov 4, 2015 1:17pm
Hi mr alfonso and all friends !!

I have tried to make analyses on EUR/USD pair for swing and I have drawn all S/D levels and TL that I could see them on the weekly , Daily and H4 so can you please correct me and give me some advices if u have any

Thank you very much .

here is my weekly chart :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd wk.png Size: 21 KB

here is my daily chart :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd D1.png Size: 46 KB

here is my H4 chart :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd H4.png Size: 47 KB
  • #6,411
  • Nov 4, 2015 2:19pm Nov 4, 2015 2:19pm
Hello Alfonso,
i have a question to the validation of a level. Its about the consolidation which isnt clear to me. Looking at the Picture P1 would this be a level tested directly after breakout (there is a level above it)? Looking at P2 the only valid level would be the last one supposed it did take out demand (or the first one or non because of compression)? Is it necessary to make 2:1 imbalance before retest? could we just ignore levels that did not consolidate away before 2:1 (P1)? So there could be a RBR without a DRB?

appreciate your input
Joe
Attached Images
  • #6,412
  • Nov 4, 2015 5:49pm Nov 4, 2015 5:49pm
Quoting n_aftab
i think a simpler way of me asking is what is causing the move lower is it monthly or weekly? and are longs still the way to go , shorts not allowed {image}
Hello there,

A couple of things on your USDCAD chart. You are using indicators not allowed in the strategy, when we look at the chart it's a sort of "mess". Longs? You need to make your top down analysis and that will tell you the bias, only one timeframe is not enough. Last ascending trendline is invalid as well.

Please, don't upload charts with indicators not allowed in the thread. You are using several EMAs, only 20 EMA is allowed.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,413
  • Nov 4, 2015 5:52pm Nov 4, 2015 5:52pm
Quoting Nes
Hi Alfonso, my great mentor and friend. Hello to all the others. Few day's ago one of my trades hits TP. It was very good trade with S&D realignment rules and I want to share it here. AUDUSD short on 0,7373 Situation: D1 is up TL broken W1 is down TL broken (this is my exception from the rules) MN is down TL not broken good looking, fresh supply zone on W1 but on pin bar -> you never get the ideal situation zone make 1:2 in two bars, max 1:5.5 SL 70 pip TP on 1:3 ; price move more then 1:4 My question for Alonso is: how about the TL? I see some...
Thanks for sharing your trade on AUDUSD. Regardinig the trendline rule, it's just a rule. You follow it or not, I do follow it, it tells you where you can buy/sell according to the set of rules. Why does the trade go well with trendline broken? Markets work like that, reasons? Only god knows, I just apply the rules, follow them and take decisions. The TL rule is just another rule I have to follow.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,414
  • Nov 4, 2015 5:53pm Nov 4, 2015 5:53pm
Quoting mohamedbaha
Hi mr alfonso and all friends !! I have tried to make analyses on EUR/USD pair for swing and I have drawn all S/D levels and TL that I could see them on the weekly , Daily and H4 so can you please correct me and give me some advices if u have any Thank you very much . here is my weekly chart : {image} here is my daily chart : {image} here is my H4 chart : {image}
On Weekly there is a supply missing, on H4 as well. Weekly doesn't have any trendline.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,415
  • Nov 4, 2015 5:56pm Nov 4, 2015 5:56pm
Quoting JoeMcCool
Hello Alfonso, i have a question to the validation of a level. Its about the consolidation which isnt clear to me. Looking at the Picture P1 would this be a level tested directly after breakout (there is a level above it)? Looking at P2 the only valid level would be the last one supposed it did take out demand (or the first one or non because of compression)? Is it necessary to make 2:1 imbalance before retest? could we just ignore levels that did not consolidate away before 2:1 (P1)? So there could be a RBR without a DRB? appreciate your input...
A level is considered retested when there is a full OHCL candle consolidated away after price has returned to the imbalance, it does not need to make 2:1, just a full OHCL candle.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,416
  • Nov 4, 2015 7:59pm Nov 4, 2015 7:59pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} A level is considered retested when there is a full OHCL candle consolidated away after price has returned to the imbalance, it does not need to make 2:1, just a full OHCL candle. Cheers, Alfonso
i did not ask for the retest. maybe i was not clear enough. you say a level has to make at least a 2:1 imbalance and consolidate away to be a valid level. So in P1 we have a level, a rally and an immediate retest before the candle consolidated away. So this is a valid level but already retested on depature or is this too much balance because of the immediate retest = no level? And P2... is there a good level or does all of those belong to compression?

thanks
joe
Attached Images
  • #6,417
  • Nov 4, 2015 11:58pm Nov 4, 2015 11:58pm
Quoting JoeMcCool
{quote} i did not ask for the retest. maybe i was not clear enough. you say a level has to make at least a 2:1 imbalance and consolidate away to be a valid level. So in P1 we have a level, a rally and an immediate retest before the candle consolidated away. So this is a valid level but already retested on depature or is this too much balance because of the immediate retest = no level? And P2... is there a good level or does all of those belong to compression? thanks joe {image} {image}
Hi Joe,

If level ha been retested upon validation as a level it's no longer valid to be taken, bigger penetration and/or removal is expected, depending on the top down analysis and trend.

Hope that's clear now.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,418
  • Nov 5, 2015 5:03am Nov 5, 2015 5:03am
Hello Alfonso! I read first post, try understand all of it. I have a question,sorry for it, may be it is stupid. It is about entry point.
Thanks for your help and efforts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ask.png Size: 49 KB
  • #6,419
  • Nov 5, 2015 5:42am Nov 5, 2015 5:42am
My analysis on the NZDJPY:


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPYMonthly Kopie.png Size: 47 KB



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPYWeekly Kopie.png Size: 51 KB



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPYDaily Kopie.png Size: 61 KB
  • #6,420
  • Nov 5, 2015 3:36pm Nov 5, 2015 3:36pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} On Weekly there is a supply missing, on H4 as well. Weekly doesn't have any trendline. Cheers, Alfonso
Hi Alfonso,

Can you please draw in my charts where is exactly the missing levels ? because I can't find them :/

Thank you very much
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