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Finding true Supply/Demand on your chart

  • #21
  • Oct 30, 2015 6:38am Oct 30, 2015 6:38am
I also want to track how today goes intraday sentiment-wise, once we get to Wall St. open in a couple of hours.

So far, price is slightly above yesterdays Value Area indicating a slight imbalance to the upside. Ideal setup would be, from my now short-biased point of view, would be if we accept the Value Area early in the trading day, like the first hour or two. Here's an M30 chart with H4 S/D zones displayed. Purple lines represent Market Profile Value Area and that's where I want to price to start traversing.

www.angelocapital.co.uk
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  • #22
  • Oct 30, 2015 9:19am Oct 30, 2015 9:19am
Quoting doggette
I also want to track how today goes intraday sentiment-wise, once we get to Wall St. open in a couple of hours. So far, price is slightly above yesterdays Value Area indicating a slight imbalance to the upside. Ideal setup would be, from my now short-biased point of view, would be if we accept the Value Area early in the trading day, like the first hour or two. Here's an M30 chart with H4 S/D zones displayed. Purple lines represent Market Profile Value Area and that's where I want to price to start traversing. www.angelocapital.co.uk...
And this is exactly what has happened, beauty of visualisation:
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  • #23
  • Nov 3, 2015 5:33am Nov 3, 2015 5:33am
GBPJPY is having trouble breaking through a previously strong H4 supply.

Topdown analysis:

Monthly: Price made a reversal and a bullish month end.

Weekly: nothing interesting there.

Daily: Just below 200 DMA, hanging around underneath. Price now in a top Quartile point.

H4: Previously strong supply, now tested 2x, so score went down. However price seems to be having trouble advancing from here and is attempting to create a base.

Conclusion:
Because of the existence of a previously strong H4, price placement inside a top Q point (previous confirmed swing high) and an H4 consolidation, price is too high up for longs. Correction needed, so attempting shorts from this area. Ideally I will keep the stops up to 22 pips, in order to maximise the chances of the trade reaching 4:1 risk/reward in the next 2 days.

www.angelocapital.co.uk
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  • #24
  • Nov 3, 2015 5:37am Nov 3, 2015 5:37am
Once we get to the NY session, I will reassess the intraday sentiment in relation to previous days Market Profile Value Area. For now we are inside it. Yesterday we had a very clear Normal Variation day type (price extended to the downside in relation to Initial Balance and proceeded to go the full distance of IB). However the day was ultimately neutral. MP New York session profile:

www.angelocapital.co.uk
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  • #25
  • Nov 3, 2015 9:14am Nov 3, 2015 9:14am
Quoting doggette
Once we get to the NY session, I will reassess the intraday sentiment in relation to previous days Market Profile Value Area. For now we are inside it. Yesterday we had a very clear Normal Variation day type (price extended to the downside in relation to Initial Balance and proceeded to go the full distance of IB). However the day was ultimately neutral. MP New York session profile: www.angelocapital.co.uk {image}
GBPJPY opened inside Value Area. Which means a balanced market. Might be a very boring day for g/j. I will be watching to see if price closes outside VA, one direction or the other in the next hour. Otherwise, there's no trade here on G/J today.
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  • #26
  • Nov 4, 2015 11:55am Nov 4, 2015 11:55am
If anyone's interesting in asking me a few questions, I'm running a little chat session right now, click here:
http://www.rumbletalk.com/client/chat.php?clhZ5:gk
  • #27
  • Nov 5, 2015 6:24am Nov 5, 2015 6:24am
EURUSD:

Price reached the bottom of the previous swing. We're deep inside a Q point and there is also a strong Daily demand here.
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  • #28
  • Nov 5, 2015 6:27am Nov 5, 2015 6:27am
From market profile stand point, price is now above yesterdays Value Area. As long as price stays above it and price opens above VA at Wall Street today, longs are in play from both Daily chart and M30 chart. M30 chart with only Daily S/Ds displayed:

www.angelocapital.co.uk
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  • #29
  • Nov 6, 2015 8:25am Nov 6, 2015 8:25am
Aftermath of NFP beat on expectations with 271k jobs added, GBPJPY looks interesting after the correction. Might long it on a pullback to the monthly pivot. We're in a previous swing low Q point and we already have a reaction from the area.

Trend is largely up, with 4 timeframes agreeing on that: m30 up, H4 up, Daily -DOWN! but Weekly up and Monthly up.

Daily chart:
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  • #30
  • Nov 6, 2015 8:26am Nov 6, 2015 8:26am
GBPJPY zoomed into m30 for better accuracy and with possible target areas and market profile displayed:

www.angelocapital.co.uk
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  • #31
  • Nov 8, 2015 3:02am Nov 8, 2015 3:02am
Great.. I starred at the supply level before it dropped.. I dont know why i didnt take the trade..
4H chart:

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What is your view on EU? still up? Considering longing it..

Daily chart:
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  • #32
  • Nov 8, 2015 4:02pm Nov 8, 2015 4:02pm
Quoting fxdk
Great.. I starred at the supply level before it dropped.. I dont know why i didnt take the trade.. 4H chart: {image} What is your view on EU? still up? Considering longing it.. Daily chart: {image}
E/U now definitely down, there's a new LL on Weekly chart now:
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  • #33
  • Nov 8, 2015 4:05pm Nov 8, 2015 4:05pm
Quoting fxdk
Great.. I starred at the supply level before it dropped.. I dont know why i didnt take the trade.. 4H chart: {image} What is your view on EU? still up? Considering longing it.. Daily chart: {image}
So what I'm looking at now is a strong H4 supply, below is a 30min chart with only H4 S/D zones displayed. We might have to wait a couple of days for a pullback before Value Area agrees with going short and below Value.
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  • #34
  • Nov 11, 2015 3:27am Nov 11, 2015 3:27am
Sluggish Chinese numbers, that should mean e/u up, at least for the London session.
There is a weak-ish daily demand around these levels, so I will use it to attempt a long here. Low probability for this one, as I'm going off fundamentals, supported by weak technicals. However price is in a low H4 Q point, so could act as a bounce point. But this is a countertrend trade, so bear that in mind.

Price is still inside a London VA, but it's above US Value. If the trade survives, it's looking better for the NY session at the moment. On the chart is London VA displayed in reddish colour

www. angelocapital.co.uk
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  • #35
  • Nov 13, 2015 4:56am Nov 13, 2015 4:56am
More downside expected on e/u today. Looking to sell any moves up. Large option expiry at 1.07 today for NY cut (10am New York, 3pm London time).

I would prefer if it touched the strong supply at 1.0870 which is where my limit order is sitting however if price doesn't reach it I will still try to short it post NY cut.

Since it's Friday, this will be an intraday trade. I won't be keeping it over the weekend. Remember to add your own spreads onto levels I post, since I have no way of knowing what kind of spreads you have.

www.angelocapital.co.uk
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  • #36
  • Nov 26, 2015 4:58am Nov 26, 2015 4:58am
Couple of setups today.

One S&P short and another EURUSD short.

S&P might trigger today.

Reason for S&P short is more fundamental than anything, I was simply trying to locate a strong supply to support my fundamental view. So I found it on H1 chart, nested inside a larger Daily supply. Stop not ideal, but this is meant to be an intraday trade. For swings, your stop should be up at 2120.
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  • #37
  • Nov 30, 2015 10:02am Nov 30, 2015 10:02am
Quoting doggette
GBPJPY zoomed into m30 for better accuracy and with possible target areas and market profile displayed: www.angelocapital.co.uk {image}
If you guys remember this setup, I'm playing the same level again, nearly a month later as a larger swing. This was a confirmation trade. Notice the green circle - price arrived at (now weakened) level, consolidated then proceeded to move up again, WITH the prevailing trend (look at the little box at the bottom left of the screen, that is our trend indicator).
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  • #38
  • Dec 9, 2015 5:37am Dec 9, 2015 5:37am
GBPJPY now above NY value area and good for longs until 185.40.
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  • #39
  • Dec 9, 2015 5:43am Dec 9, 2015 5:43am
EURUSD possible intraday setup:

On higher timeframes, trend is still down (Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly). However on medium timeframes, trend is up. I always go with the higher TF trend when in doubt, but not until we reach at least H4 Q point or Daily Q point. Since e/u now has an evening star formation on H1, if this holds in the next 20 mins, my intraday setup is a short from conterminous line at the newly formed supply on H1 @ 1.0929.

Target at least 1.0890, depending on whether in the US session price accepts value area or not. Setup only valid if bearish engulfing is still there after the M30 candle is finished.
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  • #40
  • Dec 9, 2015 5:52am Dec 9, 2015 5:52am
S&P currently pushing inside New York value area. Price has reached H4 Q Point Low.
Given the fact that there's a 200DMA line at 2060 (spot market), this could be a bullish intraday setup. Targets at 2086/2088. Careful though, this is a countertrend intraday trade. We could see more positioning and offloading ahead of FOMC rate decision next week.

Learn to trade like me: Market Stalkers ebook is out now.
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