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EUR/USD: IntraDay Scalping and Short Term Swing Trading Only

  • #1,661
  • Nov 4, 2015 1:08am Nov 4, 2015 1:08am
my late call on euro yesterday was off but jpy was on so far... which means risk is on as usual for euro, it was a premature call, and tough to scalp on fundamentals

this morning got a super late start and managed to join the party late but put on a short euro a little while ago at 49, in profit now but will keep close eye on it.

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  • #1,662
  • Nov 4, 2015 1:35am Nov 4, 2015 1:35am
I think it was Seahorse that posted a pic here a few days ago with 1.0890 as near term support, and it seems we may be headed toward there...my entry at 49 this morning is already +20 in just a few minutes, and there is massive overhead resistance forming...those are opens and mids of several intraday time intervals on the chart (I know its funky and unconventional, don't want to hear it)..

it has a lot to get though quickly to blast back to 49 as always the dynamics can change within a hour but it shows the drop is clearly not over, which explains why it suddenly became difficult to scalp long late yesterday

anyway...there is overhead resistance at 49 forming, it could change within a hour but my short is holding well, was reluctant to go short, but this move to the downside may not be over quite yet.

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  • #1,663
  • Nov 4, 2015 1:45am Nov 4, 2015 1:45am
Quoting Pipologist
I think it was Seahorse that posted a pic here a few days ago with 1.0890 as near term support, and it seems we may be headed toward there...my entry at 49 this morning is already +20 in just a few minutes, and there is massive overhead resistance forming...those are opens and mids of several intraday time intervals on the chart (I know its funky and unconventional, don't want to hear it).. it has a lot to get though quickly to blast back to 49 as always the dynamics can change within a hour but it shows the drop is clearly not over, which explains...
Watch out for Draghi speech in 15m. Protect your profit!

EG is helping you atm but they may move it both sides for sl's clearing.

I am long GU (24) & short J (03) btw from last night. One of the two could run while the other will have a stop (GU more likely)
  • #1,664
  • Nov 4, 2015 2:01am Nov 4, 2015 2:01am
Quoting sakisf
{quote} Watch out for Draghi speech in 15m. Protect your profit! EG is helping you atm but they may move it both sides for sl's clearing. I am long GU (24) & short J (03) btw from last night. One of the two could run while the other will have a stop (GU more likely)
Thank you for that.

I closed the short, since there was quick move up past one of the short term mids as I posted

I actually went long at 36.6 and have a close stop I'm monitoring...

IF the draghi speech is EU negative positive ...they just gave away their hand here...else it was just shorts going neutral....

this same kind of action was going on about 4 to 6 weeks ago...drop because of draghi and then move up because of draghi...last time it was a spike down for a few minutes right after and then a LONNNG move up.

Maybe it's just me but, I'm sure Draghi gives away some hints to his inner circle as to what is going to be said, that is if he himself even writes these things.

Last time I was unprepared and holding shorts at the time, this time, ready for anything.
  • #1,665
  • Edited 2:20am Nov 4, 2015 2:06am | Edited 2:20am
Emmm, Dragster speech is in an hour I believe. You were right it was at 8 GMT, my bad.
One swing noted so far - 58>28.
Partial from yesterday long closed at BE unfortunately (I was expecting 985;/).
  • #1,666
  • Nov 4, 2015 2:14am Nov 4, 2015 2:14am
Bought 25, sl 21. That's an entry from my market profile chart, not from my usual system. tp anywhere between 35-41 if no sl.
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  • #1,667
  • Nov 4, 2015 2:15am Nov 4, 2015 2:15am
Some divergences on 15 and 30.
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  • #1,668
  • Nov 4, 2015 2:15am Nov 4, 2015 2:15am
Quoting KzX
Emmm, Dragster speech is in an hour I believe. One swing noted so far - 58>28. Partial from yesterday long closed at BE unfortunately (I was expecting 985;/).

Duh. A double bounce off the 25 / 28 zone?
  • #1,669
  • Nov 4, 2015 2:20am Nov 4, 2015 2:20am
Watching the dax. This fall could lead to super move up by EU in the short term (~1.0970). Keeping tp open atm. sl to 18 to have some space just in case.
  • #1,670
  • Nov 4, 2015 2:21am Nov 4, 2015 2:21am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} Duh. A double bounce off the 25 / 28 zone?
Means nothing so far. I still need some confirmation.
  • #1,671
  • Nov 4, 2015 2:25am Nov 4, 2015 2:25am
So my new "zone" chart clearly told me to get out of the long with a 2p loss and even go short....my mind says "ehh it's ok, your stop is less than 10p so you're safe"

Score:

mind -10p
chart +10p

brains 0

I need some tea.
  • #1,672
  • Nov 4, 2015 2:27am Nov 4, 2015 2:27am
Quoting sakisf
Watching the dax. This fall could lead to super move up by EU in the short term (~1.0970). Keeping tp open atm. sl to 18 to have some space just in case.
A move is coming. Dollar is lower then yesterday's high, and EU is lower than yesterday's low. One of them is lying
  • #1,673
  • Nov 4, 2015 2:30am Nov 4, 2015 2:30am
I got a buy stop in at low to mid 30
  • #1,674
  • Nov 4, 2015 2:31am Nov 4, 2015 2:31am
Quoting KzX
{quote} A move is coming. Dollar is lower then yesterday's high, and EU is lower than yesterday's low. One of them is lying
I am counting on EU lying Not wanting to wait for 1.0910-1.0870 to open longs again. And f GU is giving me a headache. Big 1m bars all around and below my open but not above it
  • #1,675
  • Nov 4, 2015 2:32am Nov 4, 2015 2:32am
the news was actually possitive about the euro:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/...151104.en.html
but it doesnt seem that the market responds to it....
never go for max profit, but for minimum lose !
  • #1,676
  • Nov 4, 2015 2:33am Nov 4, 2015 2:33am
Quoting KzX
{quote} A move is coming. Dollar is lower then yesterday's high, and EU is lower than yesterday's low. One of them is lying
That is a beautiful, simple and pure way to asses a real divergence and a chart is not necessary. Pure tape reading.
  • #1,677
  • Nov 4, 2015 2:34am Nov 4, 2015 2:34am
Quoting IcoHristov
the news was actually possitive about the euro: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/...151104.en.html but it doesnt seem that the market responds to it....
either dollar so strong or realization of news a few minutes behind
  • #1,678
  • Nov 4, 2015 2:34am Nov 4, 2015 2:34am
Quoting IcoHristov
the news was actually possitive about the euro: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/...151104.en.html but it doesnt seem that the market responds to it....
Could be in accumulation phase. Dax at least is hinting towards an up move. UJ & dxy are not losing strength yet but could be any minute.
  • #1,679
  • Nov 4, 2015 2:35am Nov 4, 2015 2:35am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} either dollar so strong or realization of news a few minutes behind
Soros so strong you mean
never go for max profit, but for minimum lose !
  • #1,680
  • Nov 4, 2015 2:35am Nov 4, 2015 2:35am
I loaded GU on Friday (short) around 5400 along with EU 1070, they were both on pivots. EU reversed, GU rallied almost 100p up.
I didn't have hard stop as usual. EU ended up really well, GU closed yesterday.
GU will be choppy until tomorrow.
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