Attachments: Trading Crude Oil with price action + indicator

Trading Crude Oil with price action + indicator

#681
Oct 31, 2015 11:45am Oct 31, 2015 11:45am

LamerTrader
Joined Jul 2012 | Status: Ninja | 537 Posts

Quoting rocky

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May I ask your opinion on one thing:
I often saw that institutions run stops (Heavy vol on FP + heavy delta etc.) however I noted that only this in itself can be a fake reversal sign. I noted that when I see (in your case) buyers getting in with great activity (eating themselves through the offers even if the sellers are putting there a lot of them.)

So what I mainly ask: Do you wait as well to see some sign of the other side getting in, or you simply trade the zone (S/D) + the failure at the stops (as confirmation)?

It's all psychology...

#682
Oct 31, 2015 4:29pm Oct 31, 2015 4:29pm

rocky
Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,728 Posts

I have a special technique that I trade solely on Fridays right before the market closes but only with the proper market structure.

It's nothing special but it produces good profits.

On Fridays there is a tendency for most traders and some Institutional traders to "Short Cover" (buy back your short trade for a profit) and vice versa for a "Long trade".

This is usually accomplished in the last hour before market close.

What I do is start scanning the markets (30 min on up) looking for one that has had a good run for the week or even has had a good run on that day (Friday).
Once I've found one I start drawing my Picasso. In this instance I found the 30 Min S&P E-mini.

I then want to see confluence in the last few candle of the day, depending of course on which time frame your observing.

In the case of the ES we see PA approaching a Demand Zone, 50% FIB (which somehow was moved on my chart) and a Pitchfork.

Now knowing that the 'SHORTS" were in control of this market since 2:30 am I was looking for "Short Covering" in that last hour, possible at the demand zone.
So now I start observing my OFA chart.

A few years ago I would have blindly bought at the demand zone only relying on a "no supply" volume bar to give me a "Long" confirmation. This is a very solid technique however my S/L was usually 20 to 30 pips.

Now with the OFA charts I can pin point my entry and have a 5 to 12 Pip risk, even on Daily and 4 hour Charts.

OK, back to my OFA charts. At this point when PA is approaching the zone and the clocks ticking for the close of the day I have no idea which way PA will move. I just know that there is a very high likely hood that there will be "short covering.

When PA hit the zone I first observed the 3942 short contracts compared to the 547 long contracts. I still do not know what will happen. In the next rotation PA broke the demand zone and support with very big consecutive Short Contracts (Red) compared to very small offers (blue), red being 1107, 2374, 4479, 1022, 929, 989, 773 98. So, how do I analyze these short contracts? Even though these shorts are big contracts, we had 4479 contracts at 2072.50 (PA). Then PA move down 8 ticks with only 98 short contracts.

Interest in shorts were diminishing however this is not a trigger to buy just yet. I needed to see confirmation of some more weakness in the Bid and strength in the offer. I observe this 2 rotations later when there was 30 contracts at the bid and 270 contracts at the offer.

Now on a normal day I would have never got in this soon. But again It's Friday and there was a high probability that there would be short covering and the market was about to close. So I took the "Long" and placed my stop 3 ticks below this area.

I also observed strength in the Bid when PA moved back up into now resistance but again leaving the trade to play out due to possible short covering. Also I took into account the S/Losses that were created by Breakout traders. This alone could cause PA to rocket upward as buyers hunted these stops.

All this information was brewing at the same time right at the close. it's a perfect recipe for short covering and for PA to shoot straight up at the close. When this didn't happen I moved my S/L UP TO 2071.75 right below the 3 volume clusters to protect my capital.

In a perfect world I would have waited for strong offers at or slightly above the Demand Zone for a long trade. Better yet I would have loved to see trapped Sellers at the demand zone. I give examples of what Trapped traders look like on my other OFA postings. I'll post more trades this coming week, Rocky!

#683
Nov 2, 2015 5:09am Nov 2, 2015 5:09am

Keptene
| Joined Jul 2014 | Status: Trader | 17 Posts

WTI Crude OIL confirmed a positive closing on Friday remaining therefore above the 55 days line, still good support at 45,91. While above this line on a daily closing we favour further strength. The weekly closing was also positive forming even a positive week reversal!!
The indicators of the daily chart are still in positive territory as well as those of the weekly one supporting further strength. The indicators of the s/t charts are instead showing a mixed picture suggesting some consolidation/ correction. Bearish divergences started confirm a positive tone suggesting further upside potential.
Wait therefore for a possible return toward the 200 hours line at 45,07 to buy this contract for a move toward 49!!

#684
Nov 9, 2015 5:31pm Nov 9, 2015 5:31pm

mnmnmmnnmnmn
| Joined Jul 2012 | Status: Edmonton Alberta Canada | 530 Posts

Looks like this thread has been abandoned? Nobody is on Crude now any more?

Whatever is happening right now has happened before and will happen again.

#685
Nov 14, 2015 5:07am Nov 14, 2015 5:07am

LamerTrader
Joined Jul 2012 | Status: Ninja | 537 Posts

Quoting rocky

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I have a special technique that I trade solely on Fridays right before the market closes but only with the proper market structure. It's nothing special but it produces good profits. On Fridays there is a tendency for most traders and some Institutional traders to "Short Cover" (buy back your short trade for a profit) and vice versa for a "Long trade". This is usually accomplished in the last hour before market close. What I do is start scanning the markets (30 min on up) looking for one that has had a good run for the week or even has had a good...

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Thanks for the long explanation and for the interesting insight.
So basically (since it was Friday and you were in aggressive mode) you longed based on the weakness of sellers. - As they popped a new low and could only sell 30 contracts at the new price before price bouncing back to the range.

Sometimes I see the same pattern on CL as they retest the RoundNumber but find no activity there and then price just collapses.
Maybe seeing no activity at a critical level (in your case at the ES at a new low, in my case above the RN as it is popped) is a stronger confirmation than seeing huge activity (e.g. huge sell prints in your case) and then see low ask volume pushing price up. What do you think? :-)

It's all psychology...

#686
Nov 14, 2015 5:08am Nov 14, 2015 5:08am

LamerTrader
Joined Jul 2012 | Status: Ninja | 537 Posts

Quoting mnmnmmnnmnmn

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Looks like this thread has been abandoned? Nobody is on Crude now any more?

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I trade oil every day :-)
But I dont visit FF often. After 4 ours of trading and 1 hour of post-chart analysis somehow I dont feel the need to write posts for another extra 15-30 mins... :-D

It's all psychology...

#687
Nov 14, 2015 5:12am Nov 14, 2015 5:12am

LamerTrader
Joined Jul 2012 | Status: Ninja | 537 Posts

Quoting rocky

Disliked

I have a special technique that I trade solely on Fridays right before the market closes but only with the proper market structure. It's nothing special but it produces good profits. On Fridays there is a tendency for most traders and some Institutional traders to "Short Cover" (buy back your short trade for a profit) and vice versa for a "Long trade". This is usually accomplished in the last hour before market close. What I do is start scanning the markets (30 min on up) looking for one that has had a good run for the week or even has had a good...

Ignored

One more thing: May I ask your reason behind the 14/3 or 12/3 rotation bars?
Does it really matter what I use? (I think the HighVolumeNodes of the candles can be seen on almost any candle - 14/3 12/3 or even 16/3 etc.) And the fresh volume can be also seen on any of them or even on the DOM...

Do you know based on what does OFA color the boxes? (I mean these orange boxes - are they simply the HVNs of the candles?
I also posess OFA but I dont use it as it uses algorythms that I don't know... I use the plain gomi indicator...

Have a nice weekend!

It's all psychology...

#688
Nov 16, 2015 7:48pm Nov 16, 2015 7:48pm

trademark
| Joined Sep 2015 | Status: Trader | 438 Posts

WTI crude oil below the 44.00 level could keep falling to the 40.00 level, which could act as a support.

#689
Nov 16, 2015 10:10pm Nov 16, 2015 10:10pm

yanuarPNB
| Joined Mar 2015 | Status: Trader | 9 Posts

Quoting trademark

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WTI crude oil below the 44.00 level could keep falling to the 40.00 level, which could act as a support.

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is it impossible that oil will break new low 37.xx?

#690
Nov 17, 2015 6:22am Nov 17, 2015 6:22am

LamerTrader
Joined Jul 2012 | Status: Ninja | 537 Posts

Nothing is impossible :-)

CL was fairly bearish for me until yesterday. Yesterday we had a very strong buy move so im shifting towards neutral. (=I was strongly bearish before and now im bearish with caution...) :-)

I think the first resistance is 40 ahead. If it breaks then we can talk about 38.50s which were the lows in August. And only after that can we look for 37s.
(Futures prices not spot!)

It's all psychology...

#691
Nov 17, 2015 7:19am Nov 17, 2015 7:19am

neeshamjames
| Additional Username | Joined Aug 2015 | 26 Posts

I feel that the oil prices cannot fall below the strong support level of $40 a barrel. According the global trend, I feel we can see some technical buying coming in near future. The recent unfortunate Paris attack will also effect the oil prices as chances are that the supply will reduce to a certain level.

#692
Nov 17, 2015 11:29am Nov 17, 2015 11:29am

mohsinali
Joined Nov 2015 | Status: Be consistent | 754 Posts

Crude is my trading specialty b.c its well humble the supp & resistance..
In my openion it can be traded on breakout very well.

Trade fearless not careless...

Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -647

#693
Nov 22, 2015 8:18pm Nov 22, 2015 8:18pm

trademark
| Joined Sep 2015 | Status: Trader | 438 Posts

Oil has found a good support at the 41.24 level and it has formed what it appears to be a descending triangle or pennant on the daily chart. To the upside, the 44.00 could act as resistance, but if oil breaks to the downside, the 40.00 level could act as support.

#694
Dec 8, 2015 1:26am Dec 8, 2015 1:26am