The Goose

Looking forward to guppy and WWGD availability to use on my live account.

Definitely a sad day for the Guppy's on the JPY crosses...

In live...this is one of those days where you may realize that there is no profitable outcome available. A time to play the wolf trade exit...better to chew off a limb than to have the entire body take a beating...

I am leaving these trades open, a part of working with any automated system, grid or not, cost averaged or not, is to understand the risks involved. As good as the Guppy's have been making out, there will definitely be days like this and I would be remiss in my responsibilities if I was to try and hide any possible downsides.

Just one of those days...

Hey Magix, ^popped back to see how you guys were doing? You stopped trading all those MA's and moved on to EA's? How you doing? cracked the magic code yet ;-)

This is part and parcel of trading. to have a real drawdown of 8% and virtual draw of 6% with a potential upside return of greater than 20% a month. This is a winner.
So far the EA has demonstrated a good return with minimum lot size of 0.01 on a balance of 1.5K. Managing the risk with lower lot size is the key here.
of course there will be trader who will potentially run this EA on a $500 account and may suffer account blowout. which can't be controlled.

Good work so far. When are you releasing the gold license ?

Cheers

Hey Pawpaw,

It's been a real long time since we chatted, hope you are doing good, brother!

The EAs I picked up as a hobby a couple years back as a way to supplement the income and work for me round the clock...some days, obviously better than others, but all good.

As for the MA's...the MA's are part of the EAs. The name Guppy for my latest traders is because it works along the lines of the GMMAs, for signaling and exit points.

Working with EAs really expands the mind in market understanding and lends itself to the optics of various indicators and their specific merits and applications. Learning the language, well, all honesty, I'm still not that fluent, but if you can work inside of a very basic set of thoughts, molding a pre-made shell into the vehicle of choice turns possibilities into probabilities.

You should stick around, brother. Pull up a comfy chair, grab a cold soda and some popcorn and see where you can lend yourself to logic and where it can show you the ideas of working inside of the market dynamics.

Very Kewl Shit!

I'm not sure I could have said it better myself, garfield.

Just looking at the action on the Dragon, it being the biggest hold on draw as of current, has still managed to capture a few bucks on the week to help with the soaking it is taking. The balance of the pairs playing very nicely and continuing to build where standard logic might dictate mitigating risk by sitting out...

For those who have worked with some of my previous versions understand, running a floater of a $100(ish) in the shitter, is really nothing. Though others have had a greater potential for success at a more rapid pace, they've also carried the weight of an overnight, imminent account annihilation.

24 hours ago, these trades could have been manually trimmed...a better idea of possible stop loss can now be applied...or even just allowing them to run as were designed knowing that sometimes you are the windshield and sometimes you are the bug, are all very valid in applied market metrics.

A $500 account would have easily weathered the storms of the last month, even prior to my correction of code. But yeah, under funded accounts will definitely see it's share of victims with either of the 2 EAs in thread as will any strategy manually or auto traded in these markets.

I do apologize for the delay in launch. I have wanted to ensure that the logic is proper and that no other major corrections are required and after the last couple of weeks, can only find 1 place where I can limit a starting position based on the Retail Market Gap. A simple little addition to stop a trigger on either a quick drop where broker doesn't print price or where market opens in a vastly lowered triggered position...it hasn't made that much difference in the profitability this week, but all the same, shaking a couple more pennies per trade at the rate of trades, will add up over the course of time.

Example:
This first trade could easily be eliminated - Retail Market Gap open for EURUSD.

In addition, I have been bedridden over the last couple days and somewhat limited in my energy over the last couple of weeks...

Some that know me, know that I've struggled with some health issues over the last few years. In these times, it has always proven to be more prudent to both apply myself to markets and my projects in a limited capacity...working when I am not in great amounts of pain, typically produces a better end run product.

Most of what I have is complete, and will hopefully be able to get these bitches licensed up for the new trading week, next.

Fingers crossed!

Guppy Closed down the Dragons and is still above water for the week.

FOMC statement a few minutes from now, Guppy with an empty basket, WWGD holding on to a few...

All in all, not a great week so far, but not terrible either.

WWGD played like a champ for the FOMC.

Running Half of the time of Guppy, it has managed to close the gap within a few bucks.

Not bad, at all!

Well, the market and Guppy Logic didn't dance that well this week.

If you were trading manually, or if you check out the charts, you can probably appreciate why...it was one fuck of a choppy week.

That being said, it was also the first time in 4 weeks that the Guppy seen its first Stop Loss hit at a buck and a half.

Now, I don't know how you view markets or losses at market, but I personally view them as, not so much of a necessary evil, but more so as an inevitability.

The losses this week, don't actually make me sad...but it does make me ponder.

Randomly assigning Stop Loss and Take Profit values to me are more arbitrary than any actual strategy...because these actually traded in the live markets, it is a lot easier to go back and view the historical trades, all pairs in action and see what can be done to minimize losses.

Some of this can actually be done by the Clock.
Some by pair specificity.
Some by number of trades.
And
Some by an actual Stop Loss value.

But not just random and when using the exact same settings, broad sweeping across the board, a lot of optimization can be done when applying all of the above criteria.

or...

A general idea of what can minimize loss can be applied.

An applicable setting, that seems to be the broad sweeping...

Now, easy to see that there are better than 170 folk who downloaded the "Try before you Buy" package, a lot of these are the "Backtest" kiddies who only want to see what a backtest report will show...some may be running this live, some may just be watching...but given the amount of feedback, I can only speculate that most are only concerned with the Equity Curve.

I'm not disappointed nor surprised by this...been at this long enough to see and know that most people are just looking to catch a ride because this market shit is a lot tougher than most will let on.

But if you were to go back through the historical trades, and only looked at the number of trades to profitable positions, you'd probably see some of the same things I have in just a review of the same.

Se7en!

The lucky number?
or the Wolf Number?

It seems that after 7 trades in the guppy, if profit is not reached it is time to chew off a limb.

The current set files on Guppy and WWGD are set to 60...

As the idea has evolved from it's original place, 60 was a number never hit, and was a number that never seen the stop loss value hit and even on WWGD whose stop loss is set a lot higher, has still never been crossed.

I digress...

Lesson on the table is, if we want to minimize losses, we only really need to do 1 thing...drop the quantity of trades to a place where if profit is no longer available, loss is minimized...

But really, is that good enough?

Is that going to see a more consistent profit?

Or is that just going to reduce the size of the over all losses?

Well, yes and no...

The idea of Market and Trigger based dynamics is to allow the market to dictate a minimum retrace, a minimum profitable value and allow enough movement to still afford some ebb and flow, but to reduce the amount of neck exposure to not see the entire head chopped cleanly off.

What have you seen in the evolution of guppy?

I think I have an idea and that idea looks a lot like a big empty field of white...as in nothing...

Oh, I know...

You never thought you'd be tested on this, but seriously, if you are going to apply a strategy to market or if you are going to put your live funds on the line, are you really going to leave it in the hands of somebody you've never met?

tsk tsk..

I could be some crazy fucking lunatic.
Maybe I am your broker?

You don't know me...

Well...I'm a little left of center to be sure, but not in this to profit from your losses...so allow me to show you what you could have seen, had you taken the time.

Here....

A good sample and you don't have to download nothing, nor really exert any effort, just a simple look.

There are 2 sets of trades in this mix, separated by the Red Line....

One of these trades is different, can you spot it?

It's the one in the blue circle...

I have left a hint as to why this is different, but I do believe that most won't actually see what makes it different...and have circled it, because if I didn't most wouldn't even know that it is different...

But inside of this blue circle is a little bit of the genius applied to Guppy.

As we have seen, not a perfect fail safe, but definitely a little more added to the mix to help with minimizing the risks and losses applied.

This little circle, from what you may not get and probably will still not get after my explanation is, it moves the triggering off of an M1 chart and drops it into an M5.



Wait, whut?

Yup...I said it...

We are triggering on an M1 chart but after we see a change in trend, in trend...(yes I know I said "in trend" twice), we move to a larger time frame for application...

Why the "in trend" twice?

Because Guppy actually uses 2 forms of trend recognition, one for primary trading and the other if the trend goes wildly against price. So we are working, in trend, in trend...in trend out of trend as well as out of trend, out of trend.

The out of trend, out of trend is when shit really starts hitting the fan and is what actually happens after that Magic number, where no profitable position is available...

What's that number again?

7!

Let me stop you before you respond on this 7 thing...

Because I do actually realize, based on the last chart posted, the the profitable trades on the Left Side of the line are in a number greater than 7.

You see...even if we limited that set to 7 trades, and a lot easier to see in hindsight, we would still actually have found profit.

Chop the trades off after your seven count and see that a minimum profit value would still be available.

And on the right side of the Red line, 7 was never hit but we cut trades off at an even more minimal position...

and

We have seen that by historical sheet shitting action on GBPAUD as well as GBPJPY, that there is additional logic in place to cut off without this minimal profit forced value, it's actually a bit of a fail safe that has ensured that in 4 weeks of some pretty fucking crazy market action, that we've only seen a Stop Loss hit, Once!

As you walk the Halls of FF, and make your way through the live trading discussion or the trade systems, you will see a lot of the same thing...

In that, most trading systems can effectively be lumped into 2 real strategies but typically fail long term based on one single idea.

Where the fuck do you get out of these trades?

Price Action
Supply and Demand.

Price action in that we want to continue to buy as price moves up, sell as price goes down and figure out some reasonable position to exit either in profit or loss.
Supply and Demand in that we want to Guess where the market will stop and reverse, buy the bottoms, sell the tops and cut off a limb if we are wrong.

Both of these strategies lend themselves to the idea of Market Dynamics, but are typically failed in Static Numbers as applied to automated and manual trading.

Where do you take profit?
Where do you chop off the limb?

That's why I'm Math Trader Se7en!

The real reason that Market is so difficult is that there really are No Absolutes.

That ebb and flow as applied to both Price Action and Supply and Demand work and are effective, until they aren't...

So, how do you decide?

Well, again...as I can appreciate, if you've made it this far in my Rant but never actually studied the historical trades of the Guppy systems presented, you may not exactly care.

YET!

But you will...

A bit coincidental in that this Automated Strategy named Guppy, but also that Guppy is the name of a Fish...

Where am I headed with this seemingly Random Thought?

Let's lend the idea to the Proverb:

Give a Man a fish and you feed him for a day; show him how to catch fish, and you feed him for a lifetime.

To the untrained eye...if you looked at the previous posting of the Cable Chart where stop loss was hit, you'd prolly only have an expression that looks like:

Or Maybe

Most probably


But did you see the profitable trades inside of the losses?

Let me show you...

Check it.