TRD

its scalpers paradise for GU today

my buy almost hit SL by .1 pip

hit just now

So at the end of the day there something for me too

patience pays eh

from atjeh with love bros.. banzayyyy

It was hard not to watch but it always helps

Attachment Attachment

the power of anticipation

there are several reasons behind the price movements. you have mentioned 2 of them. another theory is that price flows in a space of full of orders with different size and density. this can be illustrated as a snake game. price is in constant search for the these orders which pushes the price up and down.

when there is no buy order in an uptrend first sign of exhaustion is a stall or consolidation. in such cases even small sell volume can tumble the price down if there are enough sell orders/cluster of sell orders below and cause a snowball effect.

the other example is if the price, backed up with decent buying volume, touches heavy sell orders during the up move, we can expect volatility and everything is really depends on the density and pressure of the orders. this is the scenario when the selling pressure overcomes the buys

Today's ideas

indeed

TRD...is this an indicator or you draw it?

aah, missed that; thanks!

<p>I can't show u all charts as I have no computer just my phone. Most of u seem to be short time traders. I try for long term like in trade the major long term trend till it shows it has changed. Benn shorting the EUR for a while now. Been trying to short it today but keep getting knocked out as it has continued up. Went short again at 1.0976. It shot up and then down quickly so missed getting short more toward the top at 1.0986. Now have a BE in place. I am looking for a change of trend to the upside in EUR by years end. It needs to go below the last major low of 1.0460 area before it can change trend. That is based on my studies. These large ranges of movent up and down does make it hard to keep a trade on as the stops get hit many times which tries ones nerve and patience. I have to do a better job though at placing my stops.at BE so loss of capital is minimum. I have had trouble doing that over the years. I do have a trade explorer viewable of my trades. I tried going long on the GBP several times but kept getting knocked out. I left it alone and missed the trade of it going up today. The main trend I believe is up on GBP since it bottomed several months ago. Its waiting on the Eur and others to change trend now I believe.

Hi tashkent!

It doesn't really matter how much theories are invented to describe the market movement. You for sure see it in your own unique way. Focus on that. You may say markets are random. I may say they are not and we both can make money. Every moment in life and markets is unique. But there are similar behaviours, which repeat themselfs all the time, because markets are run by humans and humans have habbits.
If you say "There are no similar behaviours!" you obviously haven't observed it long enough. Most of the people give up, because they are not patient enough. People think in days,months. But they progress in years.
We cannot forseen every movement, because there are too many variables in play and our brain is too small to complete the equation.

Some behaviours have very high probability:
1. Markets tend to fill liquidity gaps all the time
2. As parabolic the move as fast the gap is filled
3. Swing points have similar structure. If you learn only few it is enough.
4. HTFs give direction to LTFs, but price turns on LTFs first

If this 4 points are not enough for anybody to become successful, then you should quit trading and never look at charts again.

TRD

good trades Madmoney. I miss very much these crosses (EN, EA, GA, GJ) They pay so well.

no sorry i draw it

You have very though job. Nobody knows where the market will be in 3,6,9 or 12 months. Are you doing milipede?
Since 7 years EU is ranging within 2500 pips. Is that enough for you. You may want to move to other pairs ?

"I try for long term like in trade the major long term trend till it shows it has changed."
Usually when it shows it changed you are late already. You lost already 20-30% of the move. you have to anticipate the turn before it happens.

If you are long term trader, you should get familiar with seasonal tendencies like:

Seasonal Tendencies:

1. EU and GU major sell off btw Apr and May
2. Currencies tend to turn in the first week of July (4 of July)
3. Every quarter there is a shift in institutional flows
4. GBP:

1. major highs: Feb-Mar, Jun, Sep-Oct, Dec
2. major lows: Apr-May

5. Weekly ranges and seasonal tendencies
6. In spring time we see weakness in GBP making seasonal high (Apr-May) and trending down during summer months.
7. fiber and cable - sell off btw April and May. First week of July - turning point
8. Apr-May a high should form.
9. Bottom should form around okt in eu/gu

All the mentioned above doesnt work all the time. But it can give you clue, when to look what.

You have to get familiar with the dollar index as leading indicator for all currencies.

Other markets which can influence the USDX:

1. 30y treasuries give pressure on the dollar to move its direction
2. Interest rates market leads currency markets
3. COT- commitment of traders (net short or net long extremes?, are the commerrcial traders net long or short?
5. Monthly check bonds for your favorite currencies
and mark if they diverge. But normally you should see a shift every 3 months
7. Given that interest rates were rising and HTF charts indicated no clear reversal lower had been established, this will indicate that hunting long entries would have been the optimal trade strategy.
8. Fundamentally for EU to go up, are the yields moving Higher
9.

1. rate rising
2. bonds no demand
3. USDX declining
4. stocks declining
5. CRB rising
6. major currencies rising

10.

1. rates declining
2. bonds in demand
3. USDX rising
4. stock rising
5. CRB declining
6. major currencies declining

11. Stock indicies: nasdaq, dow, s&p
12. If interest rates are increasing in a large range (main chart), and commercial make a transitions from net long to net short, we expect the market to turn
13. Open interest (indi on barchart weekly) declining in consolidation means commercials lessening their short positions. If they do that, they expect higher prices.
14. 30 year treasures market (T-Bond) as leading indicator for the dollar. (Weekly, Daily,H4)
16. COT: if commercials rapidly reduce their net short positions (red line chart goes up steep or lessening interest on the short side and widening the interest on the long side) This means that they believe the reversal is soon happening. We see a big rapid drop by the large speculators too. As low as H4 to check for market structure, div or directional bias
17. Market reverses , goes to premium and If you have bullish scenario, open interest drops off, commercials are net long, sentiment is lower, accumulation/distribution owing bullish divergence

Please dont ask me details. Just take the stuff and do your own research.


TRD

I actually managed to predict the turn this year. I wrote that begining of May.
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[11.05.2015 21:28:17] TheRealDeal: basically there is a market shift every 3 months. But if you want to be more precise (we are talking only about HTF analysis) you have to go to another markets. Basically currency markets doesnt move currency markets There are other markets and reports which are suppose to move the dollar. Because at the end its the almoghty dollar we are trading all the time.
[11.05.2015 21:29:49] TheRealDeal: One point is the COT report Look at this picure. There is the dollar chart and the commitment of traders based on weekly
[11.05.2015 21:30:07] TheRealDeal: http://puu.sh/hJN22/981c250004.png
[11.05.2015 21:32:39] TheRealDeal: The commercials are the huge money pockets which are forced ( thankfully) to report their positions in future markets on a weekly basis. So basically these guys always sell while price is rising and buy while the price is falling.
[11.05.2015 21:36:49 | Bearbeitet 22:18:21] TheRealDeal: Thier line is red. So as you see when the dollar is rising they are selling, selling. Until price reverses. Then they do the opposite. Basically they hedge zillions of dollars. The green line are the large specilators like hedge funds and big traders which are trend followers. They are wrong only at price swings. Why is COT so important for us? Because it signifies market shifts based on commertial traders possitions. Now compare last screenshot with this : http://puu.sh/hJQxI/c9209ce506.jpg This is how to read it
[11.05.2015 21:40:58 | Bearbeitet 21:41:29] TheRealDeal: If you look closer commercials are in a 4 year extreme net short, which is strong indication that dollar is turning to the downside. And if you are position trader and you are deep in longs in USDXXX or shorts in XXXUSD, you should start closing them and start looking for buys in XXXUSD
[11.05.2015 22:14:19] TheRealDeal: Second aspect which is leading indicator for the dollar is the Interest rate (30year Tresuries) http://puu.sh/hJPoj/211cf7530a.jpg The red/green bar charts shows the 30y tresuries (ZB T-Bond) weekly. There is a overlayed chart in grey. Thats the dollar index. Look how every time the 30y tresuries makes a low or high, the dollar follows it immediately after few weeks.
[11.05.2015 22:15:33] TheRealDeal: And this happens all the time!
[11.05.2015 22:48:59] TheRealDeal: i also look at one more parameter. You can use the governmet bonds to spot market shift. If you compare US and AUS gorvernment bond in your case there is a clear divergence btw both: http://puu.sh/hJSB3/b50b6f764a.png
[11.05.2015 22:49:56] TheRealDeal: Look how they were running together nicely in a down trend and suddenly they started divergate as you see market shift happened from the middle of April
[11.05.2015 22:51:11] TheRealDeal: US vs UK bonds are much nicer: http://puu.sh/hJSPZ/63e5d1f365.png
[11.05.2015 22:57:32] TheRealDeal: If you want to use only stats and not mess with other markets, go back in time and check when currencies turns. You will find stats that currencies tend to turn around first week of July. My observation shows that they turn around the second quarter of the year May - June

Thank you for your input and feedback. Will look into what you mention.