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EUR/USD: IntraDay Scalping and Short Term Swing Trading Only

  • #1,361
  • Oct 28, 2015 3:29am Oct 28, 2015 3:29am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote}I made a critical mistake on that stop placement....forgot to add the spread...was using the bid prices on the chart and they touched with the spread. I would still be in the trade and my stop would be lower now. Amateur error, that one I haven't done for at least 3 to 4 weeks. {image}
short again from 42.9 either they're coming back for R1 or going to S1...the reward is more at S1 and they haven't tested S2 so that's my bias...last trade for today maybe. this time stop is placed OUTSIDE my tracking line by at least 2 spreads.

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  • #1,362
  • Oct 28, 2015 3:32am Oct 28, 2015 3:32am
Quoting sakisf
{quote} Line chart is better if you want to avoid candle crap on 1m. Circles are in hindsight, but you can filter some out with the rsi while still live. {image}
Yup, 95% of m1 candles are irrelevant however I use m1 for perfect entries mostly. I look only at indies and intra pivots on m1.
  • #1,363
  • Oct 28, 2015 3:37am Oct 28, 2015 3:37am
lookin for buy opp if it get close to 1.1000 (before fomc news) --- 23 fibo level looks legit
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  • #1,364
  • Oct 28, 2015 3:38am Oct 28, 2015 3:38am
OR
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  • #1,365
  • Oct 28, 2015 3:43am Oct 28, 2015 3:43am
Quoting sakisf
{quote} Line chart is better if you want to avoid candle crap on 1m. Circles are in hindsight, but you can filter some out with the rsi while still live. {image}
Actually my circles move on active bar, just like a line chart does. White is active price now and close price. Orange is active bar calculating 2 bar mids average including active bar, which also moves. Once the bar is over it's printed and doesn't repaint. A plain line chart doesn't show last close well, and although I added the close to a line chart before, it's still too noisy for me during scalping. With two circles on active bar and average of previous, I can get a sense of short term direction better (at least for me). I had been using candles before most platforms even had them, Steve Nison's book was one of the only things out at the time, and they were a revelation at the time, but for me while scalping and looking at a LIVE moving bar, they're are a disaster because I try to anticipate the formation of the pattern while it's still forming and get so fooled so many times.

I've come to understand and realize that for me, scalping is MUCH MORE INSTINCTUAL and ACTIVE than swing and position trading. Swing and position trading is much more cerebral, but when I try to be cerebral with scalping my timing is not good enough and I lose confidence. So with scalping, I am just trying to get to the CORE of price action without all visual patterns that can mess with my brain and tell me my entry was wrong. I'll try this for a few days, to see how it goes.
  • #1,366
  • Oct 28, 2015 3:47am Oct 28, 2015 3:47am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} short again from 42.9 either they're coming back for R1 or going to S1...the reward is more at S1 and they haven't tested S2 so that's my bias...last trade for today maybe. this time stop is placed OUTSIDE my tracking line by at least 2 spreads. {image}
Finally gettin some love after 3 tries short...

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  • #1,367
  • Oct 28, 2015 3:51am Oct 28, 2015 3:51am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} Finally gettin some love after 3 tries short... {image}
Just be patient, all tight stops before FED will be hunted
  • #1,368
  • Oct 28, 2015 3:58am Oct 28, 2015 3:58am
Quoting KzX
{quote} Just be patient, all tight stops before FED will be hunted
They got me at BE+half a pip.

Went long again at 44.8 a second sooner instead of hesitating would have saved me 1.5p, if it breaks and stays above 45, I'm targeting 54 for now.
  • #1,369
  • Oct 28, 2015 4:03am Oct 28, 2015 4:03am
Please tell they begin meeting FED (Romania) ? Thanks
  • #1,370
  • Oct 28, 2015 4:06am Oct 28, 2015 4:06am
Quoting costyn
Please tell they begin meeting FED (Romania) ? Thanks
Not sure what are you asking for but here you go If you live in GMT+2
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  • #1,371
  • Oct 28, 2015 4:21am Oct 28, 2015 4:21am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} Went long again at 44.8 a second sooner instead of hesitating would have saved me 1.5p, if it breaks and stays above 45, I'm targeting 54 for now.
Moved my stop to minus half a pip and they just missed it by a few ticks...hopefully tp is still reachable.

No such luck there, minus half a pip, I reversed with them now short at 43.6 below the blue dashed line.

It's mentally exhausting but I don't mind taking half a pip hits until I snag another one.

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  • #1,372
  • Oct 28, 2015 6:04am Oct 28, 2015 6:04am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} Actually my circles move on active bar, just like a line chart does. White is active price now and close price. Orange is active bar calculating 2 bar mids average including active bar, which also moves. Once the bar is over it's printed and doesn't repaint. A plain line chart doesn't show last close well, and although I added the close to a line chart before, it's still too noisy for me during scalping. With two circles on active bar and average of previous, I can get a sense of short term direction better (at least for me). I had been...
Agree to all that. My concern is that candle trading is so widespread now and patterns are most of the time failing as MM's know people expect them and just use them to fake them out.

Line chart on sp is fun due to low ticks. Short taken at red circle (minus spread .75). I am betting on a small rate hike to put a pause on equities rally, not gonna hold it through fomc though if it drops another 5-6 points.
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  • #1,373
  • Oct 28, 2015 6:18am Oct 28, 2015 6:18am
Quoting sakisf
{quote} Short taken at red circle (minus spread .75). I am betting on a small rate hike to put a pause on equities rally, not gonna hold it through fomc though if it drops another 5-6 points. {image}
That's a hellava spot for a short. Nice trade.
  • #1,374
  • Oct 28, 2015 6:19am Oct 28, 2015 6:19am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} That's a hellava spot for a short. Nice trade.
Don't think it will hold though... dax & sp are retarded again since last night.
  • #1,375
  • Oct 28, 2015 6:35am Oct 28, 2015 6:35am
Quoting sakisf
{quote}. I am betting on a small rate hike to put a pause on equities rally, not gonna hold it through fomc though if it drops another 5-6 points. {image}


There will be no rate hikes, period. Language issued will be considered dovish, if it isn't reported that way this weekend Yellen will be on the talking head tv news show making sure that the proper dovish message is heard, so will various members of the FOMC. You may ask how does he know that?
I'll explain. I expect someone on the FOMC to have institutional memory. They could be idiots, but I doubt it. This isn't meant to political, just accurate as I can remember. Yes I'm really an old guy, how old you ask? Well; when I went to a reunion some of my dads buds where having, something about a day at the beach they shared in northern France I met a guy named Eisenhower. Think he was a president of something.

 

  1. November and December make of 80% of all retail sales annually. Christmas driven sale are extremely important. It doesn't matter whether you are an internet retailer, a large retail chain, or small business, what I'll refer to as a mom & pop store. You work to survive all year just to get to this point of the year. If your Christmas sales don't go well, you probably will be out of business if you're a small store and chains will close under performing stores.
  2. Since the abrogation of the Bretton Woods Accord a rate hike during this time of year have only happened once, It was an unmitigated disaster. The following January and February saw the largest number of bankruptcy fillings for US retail sales operations in its history to that time.
  3. The Presidential election campaign begins in earnest in February. It doesn't matter which party they belong to; blaming the Fed will become a campaign mantra. They and not the politicians will blamed for poor sales and closure of many small businesses that could occur if a rate hike dampens the retail sales numbers. Again; it happened and it wasn't pretty. Last time numerous proposals from a return to the gold standard, to reordering the make up of the FOMC to be more responsive to the American public
  4. Large retailers may be able to issue commercial paper or get prime lending rates, mom and pop stores, which are the vast majority use 30 or 60 day notes from their banks to finance their Christmas inventory. Increased lending cost and reduced sales will squeeze even well performing retail outlets.


Fake numbers, there are those who say the economic numbers issued by the US government are fake. They are and they aren't. I'll explain. From 1944 until 1996 no democrat president ever won re-election. Two; Truman and Johnson won an election for the first time as sitting Presidents when they assumed office at the death of their predecessor. It became an issue for them, after repeatedly getting beat over the head by the opposition on economic numbers in 1993 changes were made to the way the numbers were calculated. Unemployment, growth, inflation computations were all changed by an act of congress controlled in both houses by the democratic party and signed by the democratic party's president. Currently the best example of how this works is unemployment. It is now reported at the 5% area, using the old calculations it would be at least 16% . In fact it could go to 30% and never be officially over 10 % at the highest. I know there are those who think it doesn't matter you make decision on the data supplied as if it were accurate, but that didn't work out to well for the U.S.S.R. and it's not going to well in China right now either. As I said before Jawboning, making noises months before this time of year is one thing but as November unfolds I don't really think that they are that stupid, I could be wrong, it has happened before. Your mileage may very.

  • #1,376
  • Oct 28, 2015 6:55am Oct 28, 2015 6:55am
Quoting 356-Ghost
{quote} There will be no rate hikes, period. Language issued will be considered dovish, if it isn't reported that way this weekend Yellen will be on the talking head tv news show making sure that the proper dovish message is heard, so will various members of the FOMC. You may ask how does he know that? I'll explain. I expect someone on the FOMC to have institutional memory. They could be idiots, but I doubt it. This isn't meant to political, just accurate as I can remember. Yes I'm really an old guy, how old you ask? Well; when I went to a reunion...
Thank you for the excellent analysis. Haven't really thought it from this side, it's pretty logical for them not to raise. I was actually expecting something like 0.05 or 0.10, not 0.25, due to the comments from Fed persons saying a hike in Oct might be possible. My thinking is that the equities rally needs a bit of pullback and consolidation, before another bubble. No hike and dovish again would skyrocket them till Christmas.

Bought near the top (again!). Looking for 90, sl 55.
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  • #1,377
  • Oct 28, 2015 7:08am Oct 28, 2015 7:08am
Quoting sakisf
{quote} No hike and dovish again would skyrocket them till Christmas. Bought near the top (again!). Looking for 90, sl 55.
Exactly, increasing the optimistic outlook and driving retail sales higher. Even those without large stock portfolios hear about the upward trending market. Therefore; all is well, think we can afford that extra whatever it is the spouse or kids want for Christmas. We are talking about overall economic outlook. A rapidly falling stock market will cause hesitation of spending levels for the Christmas season. If you know any small store owners and they can get by their normal optimistic out look of things are great , business is fine. They will admit to being worried every year about this coming seasons sales.
  • #1,378
  • Oct 28, 2015 7:12am Oct 28, 2015 7:12am
Quoting 356-Ghost
{quote} Exactly, increasing the optimistic outlook and driving retail sales higher. Even those without large stock portfolios hear about the upward trending market. Therefore; all is well, think we can afford that extra whatever it is the spouse or kids want for Christmas. We are talking about overall economic outlook. A rapidly falling stock market will cause hesitation of spending levels for the Christmas season. If you know any small store owners and they can get by their normal optimistic out look of things are great , business is fine. They...
I am living in a disabled economy where Christmas shopping is just non-existant last 5 years - just holiday window browsing, so don't have such concerns And rates are negative (ECB) so can't see any positive impact.
  • #1,379
  • Oct 28, 2015 7:30am Oct 28, 2015 7:30am
Quoting 356-Ghost
{quote}
Thank you.
  • #1,380
  • Edited 7:44am Oct 28, 2015 7:32am | Edited 7:44am
My craziest invention yet. I've never seen anything like it. Just took a scalp with it at 65.5 (at the lime thick mark below) about 10 minutes ago.

UPDATE: Totally lucky timing on that move, but I looked at the 5mn after the move started and it seems it had it pegged from the 40s this morning...

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