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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #53,161
  • Oct 26, 2015 8:03am Oct 26, 2015 8:03am
Quoting fti
{quote} God just creates and then watches how creative is that which he created while creating other stuff. in the little marble. eeer, truth is if you have the performance, there is no necessity convince anyone. They no use you is their loss. If you no use you, then also is your loss. In fact i used to have trouble managing myself. Every one wants to ..... me. of course only for their benefits. and i always looking for ways .... me, only for my benefits. Mostly i walk around trying to look retarded ward off unnecessary attention....
Is easy to say that when u have made a name for urself and reached the top of the hill. Others are struggling at the foothill waiting to be discovered or they can proactively climb the hill. The performance metrics is sharpe, risk of ruins are tools that I am using to make that proactive climb and to be visible. These are small steps, sorry to ask but did u see this from my perspective ?
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #53,162
  • Oct 26, 2015 8:16am Oct 26, 2015 8:16am
you forgot your song?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HeUJ4Y-XOeY
  • #53,163
  • Edited 10:00am Oct 26, 2015 8:32am | Edited 10:00am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} Is easy to say that when u have made a name for urself and reached the top of the hill. Others are struggling at the foothill waiting to be discovered or they can proactively climb the hill. The performance metrics is sharpe, risk of ruins are tools that I am using to make that proactive climb and to be visible. These are small steps, sorry to ask but did u see this from my perspective ?
You keep walking.
when you reach the apex, you won't even notice.
but as always there higher mountains to climb.

regards

I like peeps drive slow cars then upgrade as they go along.
But there always some who start already advanced licenced drive suped up cars.
sometimes i read about their crashes.
There many types streams, normally all goes to same pond.
I not really care how it gets there. But if it ever gets there.
Yes sometime they meet unsurmontable obsticles. Then they create their own ponds.

When we get to the ponds, what do we talk about?
Did you see how big the boulder we circum-navigated?
now the fool's an island.
ahhhh days of wine and roses.


yes perspective.
old Dogs, only things left is talk male chicken and sing songs, while the world struggles on. tame another warlord.

the old house on the hill.
ynb71jCUbOM
  • #53,164
  • Oct 27, 2015 4:48pm Oct 27, 2015 4:48pm
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  • #53,165
  • Oct 27, 2015 5:17pm Oct 27, 2015 5:17pm
Hi Jacque,
Like fti says, it's important to take into account the risk of ruin. For leveraged strategies, drawdown is important, so something like the calmar ratio is useful, although perhaps not as relevant an indicator in FX.

Off topic, but I think getting noticed is less about your personal PA, and more about your professional skills/experience (if you want to have a sustainable role).
If your objective is to trade like fti, experience at a bank environment is favorable. Your #1 priority should be networking and rotation programs at a banks (usually for those out of university and MBAs). Without some professional experience, it is very hard to get in, especially as desks are shrinking.

The more one leans towards towards hedge funds and prop shops, the more esoteric or quant heavy your skill set will need to be. For props, get good grades (these guys usually hire from university), bring a good programming/stats background to the table, and have a real passion for problem solving (building projects on your leisure time, kaggle).

For the esoetric side..build relationships, learn some portugese and trade latam where there are no prices at all.


Quoting Jacque
{quote} hi fti, could you assist me with the above quoted pls. tks.
  • #53,166
  • Oct 27, 2015 5:32pm Oct 27, 2015 5:32pm
Unfortunately, the best strategies are actually pretty simple:
1) Build a price aggregator and have people hit your platform, alter prices in your favor.
2) Sit in between as a broker and collect money
3) Have clients and pass your prices + sales margin onto them
4) Borrow from your funding desk and trade in the swap market.

There is a reason why these businesses are still around ha.


Quoting TheQuant
{quote} My argument is not that the strategies won't fade - they certainly will. Fama's piranhnas. I'm saying that statistical analysis is not a strategy and my assumptions moving forward were contingent on an exploitation being present. That is, if there is a statistical anomaly to exploit, then you can exploit it up to the implied range of statistical certainty present. This does not mean the anomaly shall persist nor does it mean a particular anomaly is present. cookiemonsta. Relax, no need for the insults. I'm simply making an argument for,...
  • #53,167
  • Oct 27, 2015 5:50pm Oct 27, 2015 5:50pm
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  • #53,168
  • Oct 27, 2015 5:51pm Oct 27, 2015 5:51pm
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  • #53,169
  • Oct 27, 2015 5:52pm Oct 27, 2015 5:52pm
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  • #53,170
  • Oct 27, 2015 5:53pm Oct 27, 2015 5:53pm
please........humans have gone mad again.

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  • #53,171
  • Edited 6:16pm Oct 27, 2015 5:55pm | Edited 6:16pm
watching that usd close.

http://www.infowars.com/obama-announ...yria-and-iraq/

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/949261.shtml
  • #53,172
  • Oct 27, 2015 8:31pm Oct 27, 2015 8:31pm
Quoting fullperson
Unfortunately, the best strategies are actually pretty simple: 1) Build a price aggregator and have people hit your platform, alter prices in your favor. 2) Sit in between as a broker and collect money 3) Have clients and pass your prices + sales margin onto them 4) Borrow from your funding desk and trade in the swap market. There is a reason why these businesses are still around ha. {quote}
Agreed but remember that these are more or less providing a function opposed to purely speculative play. They spreads they make are essentially the service charge.
  • #53,173
  • Oct 27, 2015 10:39pm Oct 27, 2015 10:39pm
Quoting Jacque
hi friends, i need help. is there an industry accepted way to modify the sharpe ratio formula so that it can measure the performance of a leverage portfolio? alternatively, are they other ratio that can do the same job? tks.
Hi, Jacque, might I suggest to u to use the risk to reward ratio and the win loss ratio as well as the maximum planned acceptable cut loss per trade. I think what most professionals want to see is how does the method recover from draw down, if the book is forced to take a loss. A high r&r method like Richard Dennis's is very robust to draw down, but the win loss ratio is lower, but the thing is, the win loss ratio represents the skill in reading the markets, while the r&r represents the skill in capitalizing each trade. So I believe as discretionary trader, these 2 can be improved independently. Therefore I think metrics to show are r&r, win loss ratio as well as what's the recovery plan. The way I see it, the best recovery is the attack, because assuming u are forced to take a loss, the attacking mo, when compounded is a good way to recover slowly without pushing the book too hard and doing death battle just to get back even. If you study the risk of ruin, and u put it into logarithmic form, u will see that, by employing compounding, the risk of ruin can be linearized, and recovery after a loss, is a function of strategic attacks and doing it over many times. All these are under assumptions that, you only have 1 book and no more added capital, which in essense is thinking of the worst case scenario and figuring how to manage the worst case scenarios, because the average and best cases always take care of themselves. I think most professionals who want to hire experienced traders, want to know what their money management is like not just for 1 trade, but how the method performs in times of draw down and the money management adjustments for the series of trades to recover the book. Because it would show u have been tested by the markets and can survive what the markets throw at u.
  • #53,174
  • Oct 29, 2015 7:25pm Oct 29, 2015 7:25pm
Good luck BOJ, large options plays.
  • #53,175
  • Oct 30, 2015 8:23am Oct 30, 2015 8:23am
hi all, tks for your input and advice
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #53,176
  • Oct 31, 2015 2:13am Oct 31, 2015 2:13am
Quoting Jacque
hi all, tks for your input and advice
Hey Jacque,

just out of curiousity, are you looking to go for the prop trader route? or the bank route? or the hedge fund route? or self directed professional investor route?
  • #53,177
  • Nov 1, 2015 6:09pm Nov 1, 2015 6:09pm
halloween and i gets hacked.


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regards
  • #53,178
  • Nov 1, 2015 10:00pm Nov 1, 2015 10:00pm
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  • #53,179
  • Edited 6:41am Nov 2, 2015 6:18am | Edited 6:41am
Quoting fullperson
Good luck BOJ, large options plays.
shit man.
i have become so perverted. i always read BOJ as blow job.
should stop seeing those japanese groping videos.
  • #53,180
  • Nov 4, 2015 10:47pm Nov 4, 2015 10:47pm
Technical analysis. USD / JPY
Price: Y121.47
Resistance:
1. Y121.72 - a maximum of 28 August
2. Y121.94 - 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of Y125-27 / 116,56
3. Y122.13 - 1% - tion volatility
Support:
1. Y120.55 / 65 - hour support
2. Y120.18 - at least October 27
3. Y119.63 - at least October 22
4. Y119.42 - at least October 20

Note: at the moment the pair stuck in a recent range where resistance remains between Y121.45-Y121.94. Perhaps that will make its way above Y122.13, a zone of Y122.30-Y123.21. Meanwhile, support comes from Y120.55-65, and then - from the strong level at Y120.18. The loss of this level will make adjustments to the picture of a bull market: a deep correction starts with access to at least the last month of Y118.10.
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