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Do Elliott waves work?

  • #41
  • Oct 27, 2015 7:49am Oct 27, 2015 7:49am
Quoting Eagleprice
Nothing new about this subject, We all know about elliot waves, The theory is very simple but in reality elliot waves are more complex and takes years to master ,I am not a elliottician , I see lot of people swear by it meanwhile in the same time most of the traders give negative opinions about elliot waves, Some say that elliot waves don't even exist ,So is there anyone who uses elliot waves in their analysis, Is elliot waves working for you? Please share your opinions and ideas Eagleprice
I believe that EWT exist.
It's based on many years of learning the structure of market charts. Yes, somewhat subjective, but it's another question.
The question is, how well each individual broker can determine each wave in terms of predicting the future movement.
Personally, I'm quite successfully trading using EWT in combination with oscillators.
  • #42
  • Oct 27, 2015 7:55am Oct 27, 2015 7:55am
Quoting BalenC
{quote} I believe that EWT exist. It's based on many years of learning the structure of market charts. Yes, somewhat subjective, but it's another question. The question is, how well each individual broker can determine each wave in terms of predicting the future movement. Personally, I'm quite successfully trading using EWT in combination with oscillators.
I agree with you.
Especially important is that quite often different theories in the analysis of almost contradictory
  • #43
  • Oct 27, 2015 9:12am Oct 27, 2015 9:12am
Waves grant insights into the nature of markets. If you want to know everything about the market, go to the beach. Push and pull your hands with the waves. Some are bigger waves, some are smaller. But if you try to push the wave out when it's coming in, it'll never happen.
  • #44
  • Oct 27, 2015 11:19am Oct 27, 2015 11:19am
Quoting TP Hunter
{quote} I don't use elliot waves, I don't like elliot waves but I'm pretty well educated on this stuff so I just wanted to say what you are trying to achieve is discredited beforehand by elliot textbooks so don't go down that road. That will lead to misjudges on the subject.
My post is my opinion it has nothing to do with you personally. If you would like to discredit my opinion it is your prerogative. My point is many charts don’t produce anything resembling Elliot wave patterns.
Filtering out instruments that are not traded by the masses may be acceptable to you but IMO it just begs the question what qualifies as the masses and how can one possibly know if these necessary masses are actively participating. It is just the beginning of the curve fit which is how I view EW. each to their own..
  • #45
  • Oct 27, 2015 12:25pm Oct 27, 2015 12:25pm
By the time you allow for "extensions", "alterations", "truncations" and all the other super-interpretative, completely artificial constructs which the Elliott wave enthusiasts have been forced to come up with (in an attempt to explain away all the glaring and regular contradictions between market reality and their own theories), it seems that there isn't a single chart in the world that they can't fit in with their existing preconceptions. But are they really making any money from it (apart from perhaps by trying to teach it to other people, and writing books about it )?
  • #46
  • Oct 27, 2015 12:55pm Oct 27, 2015 12:55pm
Here is the difference between trading with Elliot waves and trading, say, pin bars.
If you trade pinbars at resistance or support, you will have some kind of odds to rely on. They are objectively verifiable
events in the market that you can back test and corroborate with other traders.

An elliott wave count is highly subjective and somewhat open to interpretation of the trader/analyst. This puts you as a trader
in a very tricky spot. - because there is no way to backtest today's assessment of the market as interpreted by yourself. You theoretically could lose 10 out of 10 trades.

That is the real reason Elliott waves are not so popular. However, it doesn't mean they are not real, or not useful.

If a trader uses another system and uses his elliott count as context, this could be quite valuable.
  • #47
  • May 17, 2016 9:50am May 17, 2016 9:50am
Quoting Eagleprice
Nothing new about this subject, We all know about elliot waves, The theory is very simple but in reality elliot waves are more complex and takes years to master ,I am not a elliottician , I see lot of people swear by it meanwhile in the same time most of the traders give negative opinions about elliot waves, Some say that elliot waves don't even exist ,So is there anyone who uses elliot waves in their analysis, Is elliot waves working for you? Please share your opinions and ideas Eagleprice
From my point of view, even if you don't want to get deeper into Elliot-waves or you can't and so forth, the basics of Elliot waves could help you even recognise when a nasty unhealthy market condition is about to unfold. The impulses are very clear, can be observed very easy. The same with the obvious three waves moves like triangles, especially when a contracting triangle is about to finish.
  • #48
  • May 17, 2016 10:25pm May 17, 2016 10:25pm
Quoting ~bull.bear~
{quote} I used to trade based on EW to determine the direction of the price. However, I have stop trading for a few month, because of my main job is not allowed, i always miss the good opportunity trade. So i prefer EA to trade for me. But, it is impossible to code EW into EA as this is a complex system. But i have another method myself. If you want to know LIVE EW forecast of S&P500, EUR, YEN, Gold and etc. You may refer to this thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=402968 If you want to learn something about EW, this is...
Thanks for your info, i still learn about EW.
  • #49
  • Edited 7:08am May 18, 2016 6:43am | Edited 7:08am
Elliot Wave, like most other analytic tools, is for prediction of price and market directions. Predictions, whether scientific or non-scientific remain predictions. It takes careful tracking of the degree of prediction accuracy of any tool compared to other tools for it to become trusted by individual traders. Auto trade programs combine the best tried and tested analytic tools to create an alogarithms for a strategies. Yet there is no guarantee against catastrophic results..

Traders who have ordered opposite trades at the peak or trough of Elliot wave, know that it kicks in a little too early or a little too late, with dangerous financial consequences. It is worse with a major market drift that never activates the ordered trade or stop loss tool. When CHF crashed recently, it swept through both trades with stop loss in place and those without stop loss in place.

Relying only on tools specific for price movement can be dangerous. Combining price movement and volatility tools is safer. It is very risky to trade against market volatility direction. The market forecast tool combines both volatility and price action tools in the upper segment. This helps traders to see at a glance whether momentum, volatility and price are trending in the same direction, before placing a trade. It also suggests an exit point when divergence sets in. Any one who has toyed with intraday options knows that what determines a winning or losing trade is mostly the market volatility, over which we have no control. So, any tool that can ascertain a synch between price movement and market movement is what you want. See how momentum and stochastic are synched in the chart below. ATR or price Oscillator can also be thrown into the mix, just to be sure.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY M1 MOMENTUM-STOCHASTIC.png Size: 45 KB
Mecrandie
  • #50
  • Jun 9, 2023 8:15pm Jun 9, 2023 8:15pm
Quoting Xela
{quote} So you're starting off the discussion about it by calling anyone who has an opinion different from yours an innumerate idiot, before they even post? That's going to make for an enjoyable and productive exchange of views, isn't it? On second thoughts, I think I'll just leave you to it ...
They are idiots!!!!
  • #51
  • Jun 10, 2023 5:45am Jun 10, 2023 5:45am
Quoting ninner
{quote} They are idiots!!!!
NyNy dont go to others rooms before taking your pills and wait for some time, really! I starting to worry about you!
People don't plan to lose. They lose because they don't plan.
  • #52
  • Last Post: Jun 12, 2023 9:12am Jun 12, 2023 9:12am
I guess some traders are simply good at finding tops and bottoms (i.e. the edge is correct timing in macro or medium term trends) if they wrap it into Elliot Waves then it may seem we get a proof that they work. However the theory in my view behind the Elliot Waves is obsolete.
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