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Do Elliott waves work?

  • #21
  • May 24, 2013 3:50am May 24, 2013 3:50am
Elliott Wave doesn't work... except in retrospect and therefore isn't of much use.

Try looking at www.harmonic-ewave.com and http://harmonicelliottwave.blogspot.jp. Lots of videos to watch!
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #22
  • May 24, 2013 4:04am May 24, 2013 4:04am
Quoting Eagleprice
{quote}Dear AceThanks for your replyThe discussion and thread is not about my own opinion or whether elliot wave suits me or not,It is about overall view of the traders who believe and who don't believe in EW,Some people say EW is bible of technical analysis,This thread is to find out the truth and myths in EW whether EW exist or don't RegardsEAGLEPRICE
In my opinion, no, Elliot waves don't exist. If you show 5 different Elliot wave exponents a chart, almost certainly you will get 5 different wave counts....some, none or all of them may 'work'. The point being that Elliot wave counting is completely subjective. Not only that, it is complex, time consuming and way open to interpretation. There are many easier, less complex and more accurate ways to make TA of any given chart.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #23
  • May 24, 2013 4:08am May 24, 2013 4:08am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} EW. Yes it works... and also it does not work.The effect is nil, with EW or not the anlysis makes no difference.The main issue, I think is too many rules that give it a "scientific" flavor when actually it has none. And you can always find a rule - on hind sight - to eplain this zig or that zag.Also, why a sequence of 5 waves? you can find as many valid sequences in a market move with 3, 5, 17 waves.. or as many or as few as you want.
Incorrect about the rules. EW only has 3 rules and that's what makes it so easy to make up counts. However, it is pretty useless in identifying where waves will end, has no common fractal relationships between wave degrees, has no means of controlling when a wave will extend, which will extend and a limited number of rough and ready projection ratios.

However, there are wave relationships, not between the 5-wave moves that R.N. stated but actually between 3-wave moves, and these projection clusters are common from the 1 minute chart through monthly charts. There are no extended waves. There are no failed fifths. Wave targets from the lower degrees must match with the higher degree targets.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #24
  • May 24, 2013 4:11am May 24, 2013 4:11am
Quoting Gumrai
My honest answer is that I don't know.I tried to learn EW theory some years backI found it relatively simple to identify waves in hindsight, but in real time, I had to keep re-evaluating the waves and so found it useless as a prediction tool. Because it is so complicated, I don't know if I failed or EW theory failed.I couldn't get to grips with it, but I know of others that find it extremely useful, so probably my failure
Correct - easy to identify in hindsight.
Anything that's good WILL be complicated.
However, traditional EW has too many holes and is illogical.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #25
  • May 24, 2013 4:14am May 24, 2013 4:14am
Whatever the method that you use, there is a probability of capturing the market correctly, importantly that you must discipline yourself and trade all the game. And there is no such system that can product 100% winning.
  • #26
  • May 24, 2013 4:16am May 24, 2013 4:16am
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} Correct - easy to identify in hindsight.Anything that's good WILL be complicated.However, traditional EW has too many holes and is illogical.
Ian Thanks for your opinion ,So what's your conclusion whether elliot waves are useful in TA or not? Does it exist or don't? Also you mean to say that modern EWT concept is false,There are no failed fifths,Extended waves etc ,Can you give some explanation
  • #27
  • May 24, 2013 4:43am May 24, 2013 4:43am
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} Incorrect about the rules. EW only has 3 rules and that's what makes it so easy to make up counts. However, it is pretty useless in identifying where waves will end, has no common fractal relationships between wave degrees, has no means of controlling when a wave will extend, which will extend and a limited number of rough and ready projection ratios. However, there are wave relationships, not between the 5-wave moves that R.N. stated but actually between 3-wave moves, and these projection clusters are common from the 1 minute chart through...
Elliotician in a nutshell!
Daytrader
  • #28
  • May 24, 2013 5:00am May 24, 2013 5:00am
Quoting mahimahi
{quote} Elliotician in a nutshell!

Inserted Video
Daytrader
  • #29
  • May 24, 2013 6:15am May 24, 2013 6:15am
It works for me and I like the idea it has an alternative count sequence compared to other systems of analysis which tells you its only going in 1 direction. Also, the definations of the wave characteristics is what makes EW princple very effective imo. Many people will tell you it doesn't work or is BS for some it is for others its great find out if it works for you. Market corrections are really difficult to understand like complex zigzag patterns substitute it with something else like harmonic gartleys.
Find your Favourite Pattern
  • #30
  • May 24, 2013 9:29am May 24, 2013 9:29am
Quoting Eagleprice
{quote}Ian Thanks for your opinion ,So what's your conclusion whether elliot waves are useful in TA or not? Does it exist or don't? Also you mean to say that modern EWT concept is false,There are no failed fifths,Extended waves etc ,Can you give some explanation
Traditional EW cannot be pinned down as you never know when a wave will extend, which wave will extend, whether an expanded flat is 23.6% or 180% or whether there will be a failed fifth etc.

As far as I have discovered there is a standard structure but in which it is groups of 3 waves where the common relationships lie, where there are relationships between the wave degrees and at best you can forecast to the very point. As we all know markets can be very difficult and noise can make things tough to decipher, but overall there is most definitely a structure, a template in which there are common wave relationships and a far more logical (but still difficult) method with which forecasting is possible.

Here are a few videos that will highlight the basic characteristics:

The first is long but highlights where I feel traditional EW is wrong and what I have found: http://www.screencast.com/t/XaJBmoTmasa4

Here are a few that described certain elements of an adjusted version of EW provides:

ALTERNATION

CONSISTENCY OF WAVE PROJECTIONS

RUNNING CORRECTIONS

DEEP WAVE B OF WAVE 3

USING THE HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE SPREADSHEET FOR EFFECTIVE FORECASTING
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #31
  • May 26, 2013 3:43am May 26, 2013 3:43am
Never rely on a technical analysis alone. use it as a feel good entry signal.
  • #32
  • May 26, 2013 4:09am May 26, 2013 4:09am
Quoting MrJoon
Never rely on a technical analysis alone. use it as a feel good entry signal.
Tongue in cheek... two quotes from John Kenneth Galbraith:

- The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.

- Economics is extremely useful as a form of employment for economists.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #33
  • Oct 26, 2015 1:22pm Oct 26, 2015 1:22pm
Elliott waves exist. That is for sure - the specific structure discovered by Ralph Nelson Elliot has been verified to appear in markets for decades.

But what does that really mean? Will it help you become a profitable trader?

If you learn Elliott wave as a way to predict the market, you will lose. That's how most people use them, and probably why Elliot waves is not so highly regarded these days.

If you track elliott wave as a way to recognize forks in the road that the market gives every once in a while, you have a powerful tool.
Gregor Horvat, a well known Elliot wave expert, says he follows dozens of charts a week, but maybe takes one or two trades.

My real personal opinion is that everyone who uses Elliott wave should be an expert in another trading method, because Elliott really truly shines as a partner and advisor or price action trading, or candlestick charting, divergence trading, etc.
  • #34
  • Oct 26, 2015 7:21pm Oct 26, 2015 7:21pm
Do Elliott waves work? No, they don't. Did R.N. Elliott himself make any money with them? No, he didn't. In fact, he died penniless in a New Jersey
insane asylum. Should you use Elliott waves in your trading? Re-read the above sentences until it sinks in.
  • #35
  • Oct 27, 2015 12:43am Oct 27, 2015 12:43am
does Elliott wave principle work by itself ? Of course not
Does harmonic work by itself ? No
Chart patterns ?
Support resistance ?
Pivots ?
Supply/demand ?
Candle patterns ?

The list goes on, but what does work ? Finding different tools that confirm each other. The more ideas you are able to use in identifying a breakout, reversal, fakeout breakout, fakeout breakout reversal, the higher your probability will be.
That's the name of the game,

Increasing your probabilities!!!
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #36
  • Oct 27, 2015 1:31am Oct 27, 2015 1:31am
Quoting gravitist
Do Elliott waves work? No, they don't. Did R.N. Elliott himself make any money with them? No, he didn't. In fact, he died penniless in a New Jersey insane asylum. Should you use Elliott waves in your trading? Re-read the above sentences until it sinks in.

Yep.. and same with Gann and ALL the others.

The Elliot Wave is very useful to those selling it to the Elliot Wave enthusiasts.
  • #37
  • Oct 27, 2015 1:57am Oct 27, 2015 1:57am
I like a bit of voodoo as much as the next guy but I prefer to have something other than the loony bin at the end of my rainbow.
Elliot wave proposed that the mkts unfold in specific patterns.
In his final major work, The secrets of the universe he tried so hard to make charts like this Eur/Dkk fit into HIS shapes that he retired incarcerated in the cookoo nest. You want to put your money on it ?
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  • #38
  • Oct 27, 2015 3:17am Oct 27, 2015 3:17am
Quoting Squiggles
I like a bit of voodoo as much as the next guy but I prefer to have something other than the loony bin at the end of my rainbow. Elliot wave proposed that the mkts unfold in specific patterns. In his final major work, The secrets of the universe he tried so hard to make charts like this Eur/Dkk fit into HIS shapes that he retired incarcerated in the cookoo nest. You want to put your money on it ? {image}
EURDKK is either not that much a free market or is not heavily traded by masses like EURUSD, Crude Oil or ... .
Any attempt to use elliot wave principals in these sort of markets is false and was warned beforehand in the elliot wave textbooks.
Trade Safe, Live Like a King.
  • #39
  • Oct 27, 2015 4:31am Oct 27, 2015 4:31am
Quoting TP Hunter
{quote} EURDKK is either not that much a free market or is not heavily traded by masses like EURUSD, Crude Oil or ... . Any attempt to use elliot wave principals in these sort of markets is false and was warned beforehand in the elliot wave textbooks.
Yes its true, we were warned that the secret magic only works if there are a ''certain'' number of players and that certain number of players, rounded off as the masses, remains top secret
  • #40
  • Oct 27, 2015 5:19am Oct 27, 2015 5:19am
Quoting Squiggles
{quote} Yes its true, we were warned that the secret magic only works if there are a ''certain'' number of players and that certain number of players, rounded off as the masses, remains top secret
I don't use elliot waves, I don't like elliot waves but I'm pretty well educated on this stuff so I just wanted to say what you are trying to achieve is discredited beforehand by elliot textbooks so don't go down that road. That will lead to misjudges on the subject.
Trade Safe, Live Like a King.
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