PVSRA (Price, Volume, S&R Analysis)
{quote} We have to look also to 15 min charts and 1 min charts , Dragon and be we have to look also to 15 min chart and 1 min chart , Dragon and be prepered for MMs tricks. They trying to get liquidity by all means.They don't have rules. they have power of money...!!!! {image}
Thank you, for taking the time to annotate my chart and give me some pointers.
I hear that we have to corroborate on multiple tf, i.e. M15 if we're entering on M1 and that indeed its not any one aspect but the whole orchestra (ensemble) that creates the symphony or gives the clear picture, as to what price is doing and where price is going and the 'intent' of the market.
Of course, before we can put the puzzle together, we or I should say 'I' need to isolate and learn various aspects on their own. I am particularly keen to learn how volume is used to see whether I can add to my edge by confirming (strengthening) it or filtering it. I've never got on with ema's which is essentially what the 'Dragon' is - love the name
One way I see you using it on your charts is to spot divergence, which is interesting in itself.
Otherwise, what I picked up most from your annotation is that the:
Green = Climax bar = "building short position" (by buying and creating up trend) when at the beginning of the accumulation phase (when trend is beginning to go up) and at top of the trend = "close longs" meaning they've built their 'sell positions by enticing people to go long sufficiently that enough volume is available (trapped) that they can now drive the Price down again, get their money (invested in up move) back and some.
Red = opposite to Green (climax bar) When at the top = "get ready to Sell" and when at the mid to lower range of trend = building sell positions to get people enticed into going long but really they the top of the trend and if at the
Blue = close position
I don't know whether I've understood you correctly, or at least more a less, in so far as this example is concerned. There are also purple bars.
Would it be possible to give each of the colored bars their names. You mentioned that the green one is 'climax bar' already, but it would be useful to have the names for the other colored bars also and perhaps a little summary what they mean, or then I could search elsewhere for vsa material that explains these concepts more fully.
- #2,967
- Oct 26, 2015 9:38am Oct 26, 2015 9:38am
"Serious or not, all traders are in the Shark's waters. This is their domain. The Robber Banks have created it to draw in their "food". That is the raw truth of it. They make billions yearly off of this self-regulated, rigged enterprise where they are free to gap prices past pending orders and to move prices up or down regardless of "supply and demand", and all for the sole purpose of padding their commissions and legally stealing money from participants."
".....Got it? Market prices are not determined by the buyers and sellers. They are determined by the Robber Bank Market Makers (MMs)."
"MMs are Market Manipulators of Price, and Thieves! The "market" is the sole creation of the Robber Banks that "make the market. "
"They have total control of pricing, and by these actions they effectively "steal" from others"
An ex-bank trader here. Haha, reading the above quotes from the OP I just can't resist to respond. Hope the OP doesn't mind.
I seldom browse/read posts on forums now but during the last 3 weeks out of bordom I've browsed a few threads in the forum and randomly bumped into this thread. Reading the posts in the thread I would say OP really have some strong opinions against bank traders OP's ideas of how the big banks work (on the trading side) are not bad for a retail trader though some of the concepts have a few flaws. I speak from the point of view that I did work for a big bank for quite some time between the 80s and 2000s, first on the currency side then later on the equity side. I am now retired and seldom trade other then holding some long-term positions in stocks. Now I enjoy my retirement rather than sitting in front of the screens all the time, but still pay close attention to the trading world and economic news for entertainment values. It's fun looking at all the government interventions/QEs, and the new trading techonlogy, HFT, etc are intriguing too. It's just like a professional footballer/basketball player who retired but still pays close attention to the latest sport news and wants to know the "who and what" in the current football/basketballworld
The above quotes from the OP are interesting and although they do not depict everything about the bank industry on the trading side, it does has quite some truth in it. Big banks invest lots of money /resources in R&D and they employ some of the smartest people in the world, and it's definitetly a dogs-eat-dogs, sharks-eat-sharks industry. I've read a number of OP's posts in this thread and what attracted me to read on is that he repeatedly depicted bank traders (MMs) as robbers/sharks/evils who always steal other people's money, and as an ex-institutional trader I am a little curious as to what he would continue to say about my old-self haha
He did has some valid points and let me just throw in and share some of my viewpoints below and I hope they can be of some values to the readers.
1) Myth#1 ==> OP (Traderathome) mentioned that MMs always try to manipulate price in their favor. ==>Mostly Yes. It's not 100% the case but does have truth in it.
As bank traders in the currency markets, we have to run books for each currency and most of us do have positions where they are directional bets and we gain when prices are in favour to our directions. And so if we know we are capable of running prices to one direction (legally, not front running clients' orders) along with favorable fundamental bias (this is very important), we will. For directional bets we did have group strategies but most of the time we were on our own and each trader has personal strategy developed by his own and that's where the smartest people shine in. But note that banks do have a lot of business on the sell-side (e.g. market making), and make quite some money from bid-ask spreads too that involve no directional bias. Suppose that a commercial client has a really large position to acquire or unload, we then look at the order flow and see how to accumulate or unload the positions to our client's favour based on current order flow/market condition, and if we do a good job in this part and execute clients' order at the best possible prices frequently, the big commercial clients would stick with our services long term.
2) Myth#2 ==> OP mentioned that MMs are robbers/evils/sharks, and the retails tend to think that complex strategies developed by bank traders are to get them==> Generally No (or, not just targeted at the retails).
In the 80s/early 90s, mony bank/institutional traders including myself did use relatively simple strategies to generate profits, and they included just some simple breakout or trend following (trendline support, etc) methods which were quite effective at that time (yes, we liked to place orders around major trendline supports). Markets were much less efficient at that time and trends lasted longer and ATRs were much greater. As well we didn't have so much free flow of information back then and so when edges remain within a smaller circle they were more effective and last much longer. However, in the mid 90s, with the advancement of computers and better/faster internet technologies, and together with the fact that much more widespread trading programs/software/knowlege were available for the numerous trading firms and general public, markets became much more efficient and strategies got exposed. Simple trade ideas/strategies that cannot be guarded easily disappeared real quick as even retail traders can spot and learn easily the profitable chart patterns and where the institutional orders are by just sitting in front of their computers using simple charting softwares. In addition, back then the number of funds trading for clients were not as many as nowadays. Go look at any hedge fund/mutual fund/CTA(Commodity Trading Advisors)/ETF quote pages and see how many funds with millions to manage nowadays. Thousands! As market became more efficient and more people employed similar strategies, unavoidably many edges disappeared and it's not easy anymore to generate alpha (for directional bets). What would big banks/large equity funds do in this kind of enviornment? Would they close down their trading departments because simple strategies didn't work anymore, and therefore just focus on retail and sell-side services? Just the opposite, banks put more resources into R & D and employed even smarter people to develop better and more complex strategies in order to generate profits. Strategies, especially those that involve directional bets became more complex and sophisticated (HFT, darkpools, manipulations, etc), and as a result the directions where price intended to go are harder to see, and simple breakouts no longer provide the same useful information as before. Going this route is unavoidable if bank traders want to survive but don't mistaken the more complex strategies/tactics as tools to mainly target at the newbies/retails.
Think of it this way ==> when competition gets tougher and edges are fewer and short-lived, institutions have to resort to more sophisticated strategies to generate profits, and this is why HFT, darkpools, algos, manipulative trading, etc become much more common, but during the process they do not necessarily target at newbies/retail traders. The aim is to shake off whatever competitions that are in their way, be it another big bank, a sizable fund, a retail trader with $5000, but not just necessarily the newbies/retail traders as many have claimed in this thread.
Understanding your edge ==> In trading, when you develop an edge you have to understand why it works, and why and when it doesn't anymore. Browsing through some of OP's posts and charts, I could see that the methods/edges are to join in the directions of those big players (OP termed it "Robber MM"). Let me play along and use such Robber MMs analogies here. If you think about the underlying logic as to why your edges as mentioned in the thread work, the intention is to join these "Robber MMs'" instead of against them. The methods are to identify their intentions as to when to whack prices and stop hunts, and to join them when they make the move. By being smarter, it means that you now are not being "robbed" by these Robber MMs anymore or as often. In addition, you identify "when" they are going to "rob", and you join them when they do so. When you join them in the same price move, these Robbers MMs' share of profits decrease, because the Robber MMs now have A) less people to rob from who also join them in the same price moves, and B) in addition they have to share profits from their robberies to you since you are in the same moves with them. However, note that the basic principles of trading hasn't changed, i.e. the relatively unskilled traders will lose more in the long term as they tend to be on the other side of those MMs' trades. In trading somebody has to lose (as otherwise where are the profits coming from?), and these losers happened to be the relatively unskilled over the long term. If your trading skills improved then you are no longer the losers you used to be, and if your strategy is to join the MMs' price moves, inevitably, over the long term, you are actually doing the same thing as those MMs who profit from the relatively unskilled traders (i.e. many referred them as newbies/retails here). When you make such trades you don't necessarily think about targeting at and profiting from the relatively unskilled/uniformed traders, just like when I explained my points above, bank traders did not try to steal or profit from a specific group (newbies/retails) when they make trades. They don't mind if the other side of the trades are some other big bank traders, hedgers, retail traders, etc. It's just that in trading unavoidably the relatively unskilled would lose in the long term.
If you think deep about the above analogy, you will find such logics do make much sense. If you are truly against these "Robber MMs", the only way to do it is to identify the intended directions of their manipulated price moves, and instead of joining them on the same "robbery" moves, take the other side of their trades and then move price to the opposite directions and make them lose. This way you are truly "against" them. But in reality it's unfeasible. As explained above what you can do is try not be "robbed" and if possible join those "Robbers MMs" price moves and thus share/reduce their profit. If the above makes sense to you, you will come to realize that it means that the edges of the methodologies in OP's thread depend on these Robber MMs' edges, and if their edges are gone or become ineffective, then your edges will be gone/ineffective too because then those Robber MMs will stop using such methodologies (like many of those in the 80s/90s) if they are no longer profitable, and you will have no profitable price moves to follow as the bank MMs move onto developing other methodologies. This echos the opening above ==> "when you (as a retail trader) develop an edge you have to understand why it works, and why and when it doesn't anymore". Aspired traders need to understand this if you want to be consistently profitable in the long term.
Hope the OP does not mind my posts above. Haha, just got boring and some time to spend and find that I am interested to reply to OP's depiction of bank traders as evil/sharks/robbers in many of his posts And I do think that the OP has some good trading concepts here but my little advice to all aspired traders is that having strong beliefs about trading is a good thing, but at the same time try to avoid falling into the trap of confirmation bias. That's one of the most valuable advice I learnt from a senior regarding how to trade when I initially started out as a bank trader.
Good Trading to all !
".....Got it? Market prices are not determined by the buyers and sellers. They are determined by the Robber Bank Market Makers (MMs)."
"MMs are Market Manipulators of Price, and Thieves! The "market" is the sole creation of the Robber Banks that "make the market. "
"They have total control of pricing, and by these actions they effectively "steal" from others"
An ex-bank trader here. Haha, reading the above quotes from the OP I just can't resist to respond. Hope the OP doesn't mind.
I seldom browse/read posts on forums now but during the last 3 weeks out of bordom I've browsed a few threads in the forum and randomly bumped into this thread. Reading the posts in the thread I would say OP really have some strong opinions against bank traders
OP's ideas of how the big banks work (on the trading side) are not bad for a retail trader though some of the concepts have a few flaws. I speak from the point of view that I did work for a big bank for quite some time between the 80s and 2000s, first on the currency side then later on the equity side. I am now retired and seldom trade other then holding some long-term positions in stocks. Now I enjoy my retirement rather than sitting in front of the screens all the time, but still pay close attention to the trading world and economic news for entertainment values. It's fun looking at all the government interventions/QEs, and the new trading techonlogy, HFT, etc are intriguing too. It's just like a professional footballer/basketball player who retired but still pays close attention to the latest sport news and wants to know the "who and what" in the current football/basketballworld The above quotes from the OP are interesting and although they do not depict everything about the bank industry on the trading side, it does has quite some truth in it. Big banks invest lots of money /resources in R&D and they employ some of the smartest people in the world, and it's definitetly a dogs-eat-dogs, sharks-eat-sharks industry. I've read a number of OP's posts in this thread and what attracted me to read on is that he repeatedly depicted bank traders (MMs) as robbers/sharks/evils who always steal other people's money, and as an ex-institutional trader I am a little curious as to what he would continue to say about my old-self haha
He did has some valid points and let me just throw in and share some of my viewpoints below and I hope they can be of some values to the readers.1) Myth#1 ==> OP (Traderathome) mentioned that MMs always try to manipulate price in their favor. ==>Mostly Yes. It's not 100% the case but does have truth in it.
As bank traders in the currency markets, we have to run books for each currency and most of us do have positions where they are directional bets and we gain when prices are in favour to our directions. And so if we know we are capable of running prices to one direction (legally, not front running clients' orders) along with favorable fundamental bias (this is very important), we will. For directional bets we did have group strategies but most of the time we were on our own and each trader has personal strategy developed by his own and that's where the smartest people shine in. But note that banks do have a lot of business on the sell-side (e.g. market making), and make quite some money from bid-ask spreads too that involve no directional bias. Suppose that a commercial client has a really large position to acquire or unload, we then look at the order flow and see how to accumulate or unload the positions to our client's favour based on current order flow/market condition, and if we do a good job in this part and execute clients' order at the best possible prices frequently, the big commercial clients would stick with our services long term.
2) Myth#2 ==> OP mentioned that MMs are robbers/evils/sharks, and the retails tend to think that complex strategies developed by bank traders are to get them==> Generally No (or, not just targeted at the retails).
In the 80s/early 90s, mony bank/institutional traders including myself did use relatively simple strategies to generate profits, and they included just some simple breakout or trend following (trendline support, etc) methods which were quite effective at that time (yes, we liked to place orders around major trendline supports). Markets were much less efficient at that time and trends lasted longer and ATRs were much greater. As well we didn't have so much free flow of information back then and so when edges remain within a smaller circle they were more effective and last much longer. However, in the mid 90s, with the advancement of computers and better/faster internet technologies, and together with the fact that much more widespread trading programs/software/knowlege were available for the numerous trading firms and general public, markets became much more efficient and strategies got exposed. Simple trade ideas/strategies that cannot be guarded easily disappeared real quick as even retail traders can spot and learn easily the profitable chart patterns and where the institutional orders are by just sitting in front of their computers using simple charting softwares. In addition, back then the number of funds trading for clients were not as many as nowadays. Go look at any hedge fund/mutual fund/CTA(Commodity Trading Advisors)/ETF quote pages and see how many funds with millions to manage nowadays. Thousands! As market became more efficient and more people employed similar strategies, unavoidably many edges disappeared and it's not easy anymore to generate alpha (for directional bets). What would big banks/large equity funds do in this kind of enviornment? Would they close down their trading departments because simple strategies didn't work anymore, and therefore just focus on retail and sell-side services? Just the opposite, banks put more resources into R & D and employed even smarter people to develop better and more complex strategies in order to generate profits. Strategies, especially those that involve directional bets became more complex and sophisticated (HFT, darkpools, manipulations, etc), and as a result the directions where price intended to go are harder to see, and simple breakouts no longer provide the same useful information as before. Going this route is unavoidable if bank traders want to survive but don't mistaken the more complex strategies/tactics as tools to mainly target at the newbies/retails.
Think of it this way ==> when competition gets tougher and edges are fewer and short-lived, institutions have to resort to more sophisticated strategies to generate profits, and this is why HFT, darkpools, algos, manipulative trading, etc become much more common, but during the process they do not necessarily target at newbies/retail traders. The aim is to shake off whatever competitions that are in their way, be it another big bank, a sizable fund, a retail trader with $5000, but not just necessarily the newbies/retail traders as many have claimed in this thread.
Understanding your edge ==> In trading, when you develop an edge you have to understand why it works, and why and when it doesn't anymore. Browsing through some of OP's posts and charts, I could see that the methods/edges are to join in the directions of those big players (OP termed it "Robber MM"). Let me play along and use such Robber MMs analogies here. If you think about the underlying logic as to why your edges as mentioned in the thread work, the intention is to join these "Robber MMs'" instead of against them. The methods are to identify their intentions as to when to whack prices and stop hunts, and to join them when they make the move. By being smarter, it means that you now are not being "robbed" by these Robber MMs anymore or as often. In addition, you identify "when" they are going to "rob", and you join them when they do so. When you join them in the same price move, these Robbers MMs' share of profits decrease, because the Robber MMs now have A) less people to rob from who also join them in the same price moves, and B) in addition they have to share profits from their robberies to you since you are in the same moves with them. However, note that the basic principles of trading hasn't changed, i.e. the relatively unskilled traders will lose more in the long term as they tend to be on the other side of those MMs' trades. In trading somebody has to lose (as otherwise where are the profits coming from?), and these losers happened to be the relatively unskilled over the long term. If your trading skills improved then you are no longer the losers you used to be, and if your strategy is to join the MMs' price moves, inevitably, over the long term, you are actually doing the same thing as those MMs who profit from the relatively unskilled traders (i.e. many referred them as newbies/retails here). When you make such trades you don't necessarily think about targeting at and profiting from the relatively unskilled/uniformed traders, just like when I explained my points above, bank traders did not try to steal or profit from a specific group (newbies/retails) when they make trades. They don't mind if the other side of the trades are some other big bank traders, hedgers, retail traders, etc. It's just that in trading unavoidably the relatively unskilled would lose in the long term.
If you think deep about the above analogy, you will find such logics do make much sense. If you are truly against these "Robber MMs", the only way to do it is to identify the intended directions of their manipulated price moves, and instead of joining them on the same "robbery" moves, take the other side of their trades and then move price to the opposite directions and make them lose. This way you are truly "against" them. But in reality it's unfeasible. As explained above what you can do is try not be "robbed" and if possible join those "Robbers MMs" price moves and thus share/reduce their profit. If the above makes sense to you, you will come to realize that it means that the edges of the methodologies in OP's thread depend on these Robber MMs' edges, and if their edges are gone or become ineffective, then your edges will be gone/ineffective too because then those Robber MMs will stop using such methodologies (like many of those in the 80s/90s) if they are no longer profitable, and you will have no profitable price moves to follow as the bank MMs move onto developing other methodologies. This echos the opening above ==> "when you (as a retail trader) develop an edge you have to understand why it works, and why and when it doesn't anymore". Aspired traders need to understand this if you want to be consistently profitable in the long term.
Hope the OP does not mind my posts above. Haha, just got boring and some time to spend and find that I am interested to reply to OP's depiction of bank traders as evil/sharks/robbers in many of his posts
And I do think that the OP has some good trading concepts here but my little advice to all aspired traders is that having strong beliefs about trading is a good thing, but at the same time try to avoid falling into the trap of confirmation bias. That's one of the most valuable advice I learnt from a senior regarding how to trade when I initially started out as a bank trader.Good Trading to all !
More EJ from today.
Looking to see whether I've got the idea but aside from all the other volume bars during the day and focusing just on the one marked I find hard to reconcile the information on M15 and M5
Looking to see whether I've got the idea but aside from all the other volume bars during the day and focusing just on the one marked I find hard to reconcile the information on M15 and M5
- #2,971
- Oct 26, 2015 4:10pm Oct 26, 2015 4:10pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,521 Posts
"Serious or not, all traders are in the Shark's waters. This is their domain. The Robber Banks have created it to draw in their "food". That is the raw truth of it. They make billions yearly off of this self-regulated, rigged enterprise where they are free to gap prices past pending orders and to move prices up or down regardless of "supply and demand", and all for the sole purpose of padding their commissions and legally stealing money from participants." ".....Got it? Market prices are not determined by the buyers and sellers. They are determined...
Thank you for your post !
- #2,972
- Oct 26, 2015 4:46pm Oct 26, 2015 4:46pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,521 Posts
More EJ from today. Looking to see whether I've got the idea but aside from all the other volume bars during the day and focusing just on the one marked I find hard to reconcile the information on M15 and M5 {image} {image}
- #2,979
- Oct 26, 2015 7:50pm Oct 26, 2015 7:50pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,521 Posts
Ex-Banker from Hong Kong, 55 years old...Guys this is a setup.It's like as he wants us to think that he is legendary William Wong.
Let us at this forum will discuss a system PVSRA and trades....!!!!????
- #2,980
- Oct 27, 2015 12:13am Oct 27, 2015 12:13am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Down to Earth! | 2,358 Posts
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return:
8.9%