The Club!

5 days to go.

Wierd, 10 years after Iraq was taken ower, its being already re-reclaimed, usually that doesnt happen so fast. Needs more Blackwater Academi men?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-1...lliance-jordan


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-1...ned-about-week
What their clients should be most worried about is being backstabed like they were in 2007. RR with GS is 100:1. You risk everything to trust their word. If not you are 07 subprime mortgage.

What is the endgame of QE? Central bank balance sheets larger than GDP, potential losses or even negative equity capital. Large balance sheets can expose central banks to heavy losses. The SNB, for example, lost CHF52bn or 60% of equity in the first six months of the year, given unfavourable FX movements and price drops in its bond/equity holdings. As we discuss below, there are also other central banks that have accumulated losses and gone into negative equity in the past, including Chile, Czech Republic, Costa Rica and Jamaica. In theory, central banks can take losses and live with negative equity, as suggested by the SNB’s Vice Chairman Thomas Jordan in 2011. The example of the Czech Republic below also shows that central banks can sometimes grow out from negative equity through investment returns, over long periods of time. However, as suggested by the ECB, negative capital can limit central banks’ independence. A BIS paper also argues that significant losses could undermine their credibility, which has already been declining.

1. Hyperinflation.
2.Derivate/Cbs are gona be saved.
3.Ye limit independance and extend Ecb power. 1:0 Rots-bs.
4.End result. History-----hyper-federalization.

And a secret meaning if you get it
http://www.google.si/imgres?imgurl=h...IVCdYsCh1kPQqA

Game of Thrones?

Incest? (because in GOT she thought to marry her brother, because that was tradition in her family to keep the blood pure)

or:

her new film is titled "Me before you"

Excellent. Gona watch that just for her.

she is sexy, isn't she?

http://clubdecapitales.com/elliottwa...jetivo-1-0450/

Thanks to Luis Carlos

cool music

https://www.mercedes-benz.com/de/mer.../mixed-tape-2/

https://soundcloud.com/mbmixedtape

In Spike Island she is drop dead stunning. Makes you regret watching movie, couse it sets your standards too high.

Tony Blair Admits Iraq War Led To Rise Of ISIS, Apologizes For "Mistakes"

All i wait for is : Killings of Tony Blair book by GG. Probably he is steping out of shadows to reduce impact of boocks publicity coming out soon. Lets see if George kicks his ass. Let the Scots at least once make the bastards scream. However to get fair on point, to see in the age of indoctrination we live in, its enough to say "i am sorry" for killingg 1 milion people, and get away of it. He will(has) said so and so will be. Which proves my point that Slavoj Zizek, philospopher from our country is full of shit. History...........is not objective. Roman empire was sub-"prime". German empire was "evil". Objectivity my ass.

Markus, with all my respects to Ellioticians, I read Luis Carlos each time he writes a new article or develop a new path to follow, as he writes in spanish and is very easy to me. Before this big movement downwards,he was shouting for it two times before and failed, and the movement downwards was not so easy to follow and in one ocasion the movement was against his prediction . IF, Draghi's speech hadn't been the same, We wouldn't be at this price now, and the wave would be different. I mean, the ``waves´´ are the mirror of the social behaviour, and Dragui's speeches, FOMC and some news can change sharply the ``waves'', they are the drivers. So on, the waves look very clear ``after'' the fact, nor before.
Best Regards

Hi Lavanda,

the work of an Elliottican is not to have the crystal ball, but is to assign probabilities for different outcomes.

In the calculation for the probabilities you put different things into the mix:

Examples:

a) wave structure
b) adherence to fib-relationships
c) inter-wave fib-relationships
d) traded volume (volume profiles)
e) COT Data
f) sentiment data, especially retail trader sentiment and positioning data

g) likely actions of central banks


As you see, point g) is, at least for me, in the mix. We trade Forex, and the CB's with their ability to

a) print money seemingly endlessly
b) set interest rates
c) influence social mood (at least for a while) (remember Draghi's "whatever it takes")

are capable to alter the structure of the waves at least for a while.


When you look back in my postings, I also made the case for eventually more upside. Look here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1444870352


But there were some hints, that the movement up was finished around 1.15, see here:


Also I noted the shift in sentiment and positioning of the retail crowd.


You can also read what EWI wrote about the drop:

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdat...in-EURUSD.aspx

(they were spot on with their analysis this time)


So the work of an Elliottican is to assign probabilities to the movements, but more importantly to know, where the count will be invalidated. With this knowledge you will be able to get a very clear risk/money-management.


Regarding the roll of the CB's in Elliott-wave:

As Elliotticans, we firmly belief into the notion that Central Banks are simply trend followers. And to make it worse, they are late trend-followers.


There are ample examples for this behaviour, like in the Gold markets. Read here:

http://www.elliottwave.com/affiliate...-Think-aa.aspx

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdat...xt-Bottom.aspx




This behaviour of "late to the party" can also be seen in the rates decisions.


http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdat...#axzz3peVjYfJh

http://www.elliottwave.com/subscribe...#axzz3peVjYfJh


So we might also look at the T-Bills or Bund etc. to draw a conclusion.


Also interesting, but other context (just came around):

http://www.elliottwave.com/subscribe...#axzz3peVjYfJh





EWI once wrote:

http://www.elliottwave.com/FAQ/Answer-Headlines.aspx

Question: Do news headlines change your Elliott wave counts?
This response is from Jim Martens, Currency Pro Service editor:
A short answer is, no: We don't change wave counts based on the news, and especially the expected news (like a Fed meeting). We track the markets using the Wave Principle. Based on the rules and guidelines we have certain expectations regarding the dominant trend, and we give you potential support, resistance, and target price levels.
If the market acts in a manner that alters those expectations, we will listen to the market (but not the news). In fact, often markets act opposite of what the news "implies" for the trend. Why? Because the news doesn't set the trend -- the market's collective psychology does.
The wave patterns in market charts reflect the collective bias (bullish or bearish) of the forex traders, often warning us that a turn is due well before the news. If the turn "fits" the news, the mainstream analysts attribute the move to the news. If the turn does not "fit," the mainstream start using words like "despite," or dig deeper to find some other "reason" why the market did what it did. But the reality is that the wave patterns (i.e., the collective psychology of the market) had been warning of the turn all along.

Gold may be set to short (or maybe soon)

see COT data

"How Would One Position For One Final Melt-Up On Wall Street"? - Here Is BofA's Answer