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Why it is possible to predict price movement?

  • #401
  • Oct 25, 2015 3:44am Oct 25, 2015 3:44am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} bit old for name calling arent you? Just do the challeng and shut the ape up.. Whats with the politics.. Anyone would think you're greacing... Christmas time n all https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZimhL9YvzI
Thanks mom! Young'ens who were not taught to respect their elders will sometimes receive instruction from said elders!

-CJ-

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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #402
  • Oct 25, 2015 3:52am Oct 25, 2015 3:52am
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} Thanks mom! Young'ens who were not taught to respect their elders will sometimes receive instruction from said elders! -CJ- https://youtu.be/o_l4Ab5FRwM
Blah blah... Just do it... Pull up a LIVE chart now and do ya thing boi!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=k7K4jH7NqUw
Time hides Nothing
  • #403
  • Oct 25, 2015 3:53am Oct 25, 2015 3:53am
FxNickSa.... couple examples that you were looking for.

BTW, trades in the pins within context of the trade setup.

-CJ-
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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #404
  • Oct 25, 2015 3:57am Oct 25, 2015 3:57am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} Blah blah... Just do it... Pull up a LIVE chart now and do ya thing boi! https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=k7K4jH7NqUw
Sorry honey, this geeks not biting any heads off any chickens tonight, get a ticket at the circus. Merry Christmas!
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-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #405
  • Edited 4:32am Oct 25, 2015 4:18am | Edited 4:32am
Quoting the redlion
{quote} what do you mean? how can you "Follow" Price? if the eur/usd is down do you sell? if so you are still predicting that price will continue to decrease. Unless you are making money of commission or arbitrage you are always predicting.
predict
prəˈdikt/
verb
gerund or present participle: predicting
say or estimate that (a specified thing) will happen in the future or will be a consequence of something.
"it is too early to predict a result"
synonyms:forecast, foretell, foresee, prophesy, anticipate, tell in advance, envision, envisage;
literaryprevise;
archaicaugur, presage
"no one can predict the outcome"


...based on the dictionary definition, you would be right to say that any buy/sell trade action IS a form of prediction! BUT interpreted in the CONTEXT of the question and/or title posed by the thread starter "Why it is possible to predict price movement?" (sic), it is obvious that he/she is not using the word 'predict' to mean the dictionary definition, but rather to mean "Why it is possible to predict price movement ACCURATELY?"(sic)

Also by "FOLLOW" price, i mean, it does not matter if you can predict price movement ACCURATELY/CORRECTLY or not, you can still trade profitably!

A 'PREDICTOR' could conceivably decide to either buy and/or sell an instrument/pair regardless of whether or not price is perceived to be 'up' or 'down'!!! They invariably tend to simply look to buy at 'support' and sell at 'resistance' ('catch a falling knife' so to speak). In other words a predictor could be buying even when price is perceived to be 'down', and selling when it is perceived to be 'up'!

A 'FOLLOWER', on the other hand, ONLY buys when price is perceived to be up and ONLY sells when price is perceived to be down! 'Followers' invariably tend to come across as 'momentum' or 'breakout' style traders. ONLY trading in the direction of whatever they have defined the 'TREND' to be at any point in time.

That is the key difference. Even though by the dictionary definition, both the 'predictor' and the 'follower' could both be said to be always 'predicting'!
  • #406
  • Oct 25, 2015 4:19am Oct 25, 2015 4:19am
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} Sorry honey, this geeks not biting any heads off any chickens tonight, get a ticket at the circus. Merry Christmas! https://youtu.be/OYjZK_6i37M -CJ-
Not tonight.. I feel that too

Merry xmas ... Jacko.. Love you too x

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NGUP8oc9Bgs
Time hides Nothing
  • #407
  • Oct 25, 2015 4:25am Oct 25, 2015 4:25am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} Not tonight.. I feel that too Merry xmas ... Jacko.. Love you too x https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NGUP8oc9Bgs
You're really after my heart now aren't you??

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-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #408
  • Edited 6:32am Oct 25, 2015 4:32am | Edited 6:32am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} predict prəˈdikt/ verb gerund or present participle: predicting say or estimate that (a specified thing) will happen in the future or will be a consequence of something. "it is too early to predict a result" synonyms:forecast, foretell, foresee,...

In a simple language:

Predicting: Tomorrow will rain.
Reacting: If it rains i use my umbrela.
  • #409
  • Oct 25, 2015 4:35am Oct 25, 2015 4:35am
Quoting Captain Jack
It's hard to explain somethings to other traders because my reality is their fantasy... what exists and has effect in my reality has never existed in theirs.
Hehe, if you say so

It's been a pleasure talking, mate. All the best
  • #410
  • Oct 25, 2015 4:37am Oct 25, 2015 4:37am
Quoting seahorse
{quote} In a simple language: Prediction: Tomorrow will rain. Reacting: If it rains i use my umbrela.
lol
  • #411
  • Oct 25, 2015 4:39am Oct 25, 2015 4:39am
Quoting simond2002
{quote} Hehe, if you say so It's been a pleasure talking, mate. All the best
All discussion is good, don't be a stranger.... but I'll get a little more into that reply soon...

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #412
  • Oct 25, 2015 4:41am Oct 25, 2015 4:41am
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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #413
  • Oct 25, 2015 5:35am Oct 25, 2015 5:35am
Quoting Davit
{quote} nor I let loser get out of control.
Thats the holy grail...if it exists...
  • #414
  • Edited 5:42am Oct 25, 2015 5:35am | Edited 5:42am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} predict prəˈdikt/ verb gerund or present participle: predicting say or estimate that (a specified thing) will happen in the future or will be a consequence of something.
Lite, if the structure of price movement would be antipersistent on the 1 day timeframe, it would be an advantage to go contrarian each day. The implicit prediction being that the price will continue being antipersistent. The price following would be irrational and a disaster. If the price movement would be perfectly persistent, the contrarian one would be a disaster. Price following would be advantageous. The implicit prediction being that the price is going to continue moving in the same direction.
In current circumstances the price following has an advantage. But it still predicts implicitly, since it takes into account the preference of price to persist its movement (that is how it works).

Cheers,
k
  • #415
  • Oct 25, 2015 6:38am Oct 25, 2015 6:38am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} In current circumstances the price following has an advantage. But it still predicts implicitly, since it takes into account the preference of price to persist its movement (that is how it works). Cheers, k
Perfectly right K! Every action taken, implies a prediction of sorts. But then how about finding a way to quantify and/or determine prices predilection to be either 'persistent' or 'anti-persistent'(to borrow your terminology), for any given session, day, week, month, year? And only after this quantification, then and only then, make a 'prediction' with clearly defined boundaries as to when the conditions for 'persistence' and/or 'anti-persistence' renders the prediction(s) invalid, null and void? Without revealing too much, my current trading methodology(s) has been structured around a very similar logic.
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  • #416
  • Oct 25, 2015 7:34am Oct 25, 2015 7:34am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} But then how about finding a way to quantify and/or determine prices predilection to be either 'persistent' or 'anti-persistent'(to borrow your terminology), for any given session, day, week, month, year?
I think there are many ways. I use volume. When the volume is larger for the up leg than for the down leg (Wyckoff, Weiss), this tells me that the trend is most likely going to continue. Usually a trend consists of three pushes (Elliot's 1,3,5 impulses).
But one can see it with one look at the charts as well, if the move up consists of almost all green long candles, and the subsequent pull is weak and consists of mixed green and red candles (still buying going on, red candles are smart money profit takers or dumb money selling, there may be an effort to expell buyers with a pull down to the half of the push (Gann)). This means that the push is persistent and the pull is antipersistent. Hence the trend as a total is persistent and it's bound to continue.
In order for the price to really reverse, some reversal pattern should follow the exhausted-volume (usually the third) push, typically a double top (Gann) with a significantly decreased volume on the second way up (Wyckoff, Ord). Here a variation of this idea is mentioned as a BARF method of entry.
None of this is really new - much of the practical ideas I use in trading are at least a century old together with a handful of ideas of my own. Most of it found sooner on the Internet forums (of which I wholeheartedly recommend CJ's thread at stevehopwoodforex) than reviewing classical trading literature, but in any case it is already around...
Detailed, elaborate predictions, although possible, aren't necessary. Early recognition of a trend is what makes money IMHO.

Cheers,
k
  • #417
  • Oct 25, 2015 7:42am Oct 25, 2015 7:42am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} ... Detailed, elaborate predictions, although possible, aren't necessary. Early recognition of a trend is what makes money IMHO.
My point exactly! This cannot be stressed and/or overemphasised enough!
  • #418
  • Oct 25, 2015 8:01am Oct 25, 2015 8:01am
Hey Cap, quick question.
Not to take anything away from what has been put out here in regards to trading but what's your connection to commercial member SteveHopwood?
Thanks
SPC * Swollen PocketZ Crew!
  • #419
  • Oct 25, 2015 8:10am Oct 25, 2015 8:10am
Quoting JoeNY
Hey Cap, quick question. Not to take anything away from what has been put out here in regards to trading but what's your connection to commercial member SteveHopwood? Thanks
I host my public thread at Steve Hopwood's Forex site, where over 1500+ pages of my information is available. I also participate in other forum discussions there as well. I am also a global moderator of the forum which allows for maintenance of my thread.

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #420
  • Oct 25, 2015 8:46am Oct 25, 2015 8:46am
cleaner not to read,Wasting time on trolls.
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