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Why it is possible to predict price movement?

  • #381
  • Oct 24, 2015 11:18pm Oct 24, 2015 11:18pm
Just wanted to say thanks to all everybody, both public an private who've sent well wishes, prayers, kind words and thoughts our way. It's been a long, hard journey that started in 2004. She had little hope of surviving her surgery, which she did but was given no hope for surviving the cancer. God saw it otherwise and 5 years after her operations, chemo and radiation, she was pronounced cancer free. What a miracle! All of this left her severely handicapped and with a multitude of problems, resulting from all the side effects. Her health has been in steady decline but she is comfortable and in no pain, thank God. He has provided what we need along the way and He will be there to usher her home when that time arrives.

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #382
  • Oct 24, 2015 11:23pm Oct 24, 2015 11:23pm
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} Sheep's clothing not required if you're counter party to my trade... -CJ-
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LoheCz4t2xc
  • #383
  • Oct 24, 2015 11:26pm Oct 24, 2015 11:26pm
Quoting Captain Jack
Just wanted to say thanks to all everybody, both public an private who've sent well wishes, prayers, kind words and thoughts our way. It's been a long, hard journey that started in 2004. She had little hope of surviving her surgery, which she did but was given no hope for surviving the cancer. God saw it otherwise and 5 years after her operations, chemo and radiation, she was pronounced cancer free. What a miracle! All of this left her severely handicapped and with a multitude of problems, resulting from all the side effects. Her health has been...
I am assuming you live in the US given that your wife is under hospice service.

I do wish you fortitude and acceptance, no one really knows how long she will be here with you; however long that is enjoy her, make her and yourself as happy as possible while still together. When the time comes make sure there are no regrets. Rely on the Nurses, Doctors, and Social workers in you hospice team they are professionals specialized in symptom management. Any misconceptions, apprehensions make sure you relay that to your RN case manager they will provide you and your family teaching and guidance.

if you need a friend don't hesitate to reach out.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #384
  • Oct 24, 2015 11:29pm Oct 24, 2015 11:29pm
Quoting simond2002
{quote} The wicks, the "intent" of wicks and Pincchio thing I totally get. The problem I have with where this discussion is going (and to be honest "problem" is perhaps too strong a word - let's say "reservation") is that unless a retail trader on leverage is absolutely resolute in his understanding of how the cycle of these markets plays out, buying as tails are forming is potentially a very dangerous business. I wouldn't say it's lethal - I've traded in the company of those who bought tails, however, they always used a hard stop. In my view, the...
I don't think that anyone has said to go out and randomly select a wick to marry your trade to... it has always been with context. However, it is my opinion, based on my actions, that RRT patterns can be traded profitably, on the higher time periods, without context. It is not my intent nor my inclination to "teach" anybody candlestick patterns and their trade possibilities. There is plenty of material out there that can easily be found to guide you in this area. Many such as this one:

http://www.forexindicator.org/forex-...way-track.html

Many things that I do in my trading would not even be considered by others in their trading mindset. While it may seem improper, non-profitable or not tradable to them, that does not make it so for me.

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #385
  • Oct 24, 2015 11:30pm Oct 24, 2015 11:30pm
Quoting the redlion
{quote} I am assuming you live in the US given that your wife is under hospice service. I do wish you fortitude and acceptance, no one really knows how long she will be here with you; however long that is enjoy her, make her and yourself as happy as possible while still together. When the time comes make sure there are no regrets. Rely on the Nurses, Doctors, and Social workers in you hospice team they are professionals specialized in symptom management. Any misconceptions, apprehensions make sure you relay that to your RN case manager they will...
Thank you very much and it is greatly appreciated.

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #386
  • Oct 24, 2015 11:47pm Oct 24, 2015 11:47pm
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} I don't think that anyone has said to go out and randomly select a wick to marry your trade to... it has always been with context. However, it is my opinion, based on my actions, that RRT patterns can be traded profitably, on the higher time periods, without context. It is not my intent nor my inclination to "teach" anybody candlestick patterns and their trade possibilities. There is plenty of material out there that can easily be found to guide you in this area. Many such as this one: http://www.forexindicator.org/forex-...way-track.html...
You and I have differing opinion on the market... the claim you are making is that the market is predictable, especially candle stick patterns.

I went down this rabbit hole before, and let me tell you ... to all the trader's here that claim that there is "more than one way to skin a cat" is like people claiming that beauty is entirely subjective. There are many different methods to do x, however there is usually underlying reasons why those methods are used. There are optimum strategies.

Let's begin with predictability vs Randomness as this is the question of the post.

are there ways to measure randomness? in statistics there are, auto correlation is one of them. please feel free to list more.

as far as your price patterns, you gave a great description of how candle sticks are formed... per se that is it's weakness as the different times around the world make different candles to different traders.... Am I wrong in this claim? hence you cannot rely on the candles alone nor as a group.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #387
  • Oct 25, 2015 1:35am Oct 25, 2015 1:35am
Quoting the redlion
{quote} You and I have differing opinion on the market... the claim you are making is that the market is predictable, especially candle stick patterns. I went down this rabbit hole before, and let me tell you ... to all the trader's here that claim that there is "more than one way to skin a cat" is like people claiming that beauty is entirely subjective. There are many different methods to do x, however there is usually underlying reasons why those methods are used. There are optimum strategies. Let's begin with predictability vs Randomness as this...
Well, I was working on quite the long reply here when the blue screen of death struck... now that is random. So I'm just going to make this a quick one an address a few things....

Yes, we differ on many things yet we have common ground on others. That is our individuality as humans based on the illusions we create of our reality...more on this later.... While many people visit their illusion of a rabbit hole, I live in the illusion of mine and no two rabbit holes are alike. If they were, we would have the same shared illusions.

The perceived weakness of candle stick patterns due to different broker time frames. This we are in total disagreement. Back to building the candles....it starts with price ticks. The worlds currency market do not have different start times as brokers do. The world markets run 24 hours a day, generating the price ticks which build the candle. It makes no difference when your broker begins to print the candles, the underlying price ticks it uses are identical to the ones every other broker uses unless the broker is interjecting additional ticks. The images you see are different in appearance only because the broker has decided that you needed to see the data at a later or earlier time than another broker. The ticks are the same. As long as broker A and broker B use clean tick data, provided by the worlds markets, the candle patterns will be the same and repeat across each brokers charts...as I've stated. BUT, the appearance of one image will differ from the appearance of the other due to delay or early printing. Within each broker, the patterns will still repeat because the construction process is the same. Based on your assumption, you are saying I could not find repetitive candle patterns within each brokers platform. I would find repetitive patterns on both, just the same, because it is still pattern recognition. The fact that the image on the glass is different between brokers, while true, makes no difference in recognizing the patterns of each.

Now I pose this question to you.... Will the pattern that you see on the tick chart, match across ALL broker platforms, irregardless of the brokers opening time, if they receive the same tick feed data?

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #388
  • Oct 25, 2015 1:48am Oct 25, 2015 1:48am
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} More importantly, Can anyone ask a better question???....for example...Is it even necessary to PREDICT price???...could the NEED to predict price be hiding a deeper need to be RIGHT? To feel SMART? To boost the EGO? And ultimately, is it possible to make money trading by simply FOLLOWING price..without bothering to PREDICT??? Can we simply REACT to price and succeed? There is more than one way of trading successfully and profitably. It can be a bit irritating when people keep insinuating THEIR way is the...
That's what I been doing averaging 30% + a month..Reacting to price!Great post!
Interestingly I don't use hard stops nor I let loser get out of control.I generally build positions and noticed CJ does as well from his charts.
Yes there are multiple ways to profit.
Below my last 3 months.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 6 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #389
  • Oct 25, 2015 1:50am Oct 25, 2015 1:50am
Quoting Davit
{quote} That's what I been doing averaging 30% + a month..Reacting to price!Great post! Interestingly I don't use hard stops nor I let loser get out of control.I generally build positions and noticed CJ does as well from his charts. Yes there are multiple ways to profit. Below my last 3 months. {image}
Excellent! And congratulations! I wish you continued success.

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #390
  • Edited 2:04am Oct 25, 2015 1:54am | Edited 2:04am
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} Excellent! And congratulations! I wish you continued success. -CJ-
Thanks CJ likewise to you!
I had a kind of revelation moment 3 months ego when something deep in me just flipped and light bulb went on.
Mainly from waiting for price to hit certain level to follow the price.
Formally I would wait for right time to strike but now I strike whenever its moving...difference has been rewarding.Not spending lots of wasted time waiting for "set Ups". Not that its not the right thing waiting for set ups but my account profits tells me importance of this differences.
In essence price is always in motion even when its ranging.I deliberately trade ranging pairs like UC AC EG a lot.To me range is $$
What others think whipsaw as something horrible I think its best position building situation.Go up take profit then come down.Repeat and repeat again. Oil has been trading between 50 and 40 last 3 months and I sold UC just about every swing.That's range.To me trend is overemphasized in forums and trading books but most young retail traders don't understand that trends require bigger DD or be prepared to get stopped out repeatedly until you bleed.I'll say find what works for you.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #391
  • Oct 25, 2015 1:56am Oct 25, 2015 1:56am
So this is where the "high impact" heroes come to jack each other off...

Live examples or gtfo
  • #392
  • Oct 25, 2015 2:17am Oct 25, 2015 2:17am
Quoting Kong
So this is where the "high impact" heroes come to jack each other off... Live examples or gtfo
live only and based on your post you still need time to mature or perhaps never...
Its after all open forum and plenty of simpletons around like yourself.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #393
  • Oct 25, 2015 2:24am Oct 25, 2015 2:24am
Quoting Kong
So this is where the "high impact" heroes come to jack each other off... Live examples or gtfo
Just another bloke looking for a free trade to get him out of the hole, eh?

Sorry, I no signal service offered here.... check EBAY!

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #394
  • Oct 25, 2015 2:25am Oct 25, 2015 2:25am
Quoting Davit
{quote} live only and based on your post you still need time to mature or perhaps never... Its after all open forum and plenty of simpletons around like yourself.
Yes, it's true.. but that proves nothing
Man no one cares about your $30 demo profit..

One thing is constant... And that is now

See
  • #395
  • Oct 25, 2015 2:26am Oct 25, 2015 2:26am
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} Just another bloke looking for a free trade to get him out of the hole, eh? Sorry, I no signal service offered here.... check EBAY! -CJ-
Cool... I laughed when you were said that your results were "incredible"



Sorry.. They're not.. Even if they were real
  • #396
  • Oct 25, 2015 2:36am Oct 25, 2015 2:36am
just putting it out there, no need to get defensive..

Just stop jacking each other off and post something real. I wouln't trade it. But you want the lime light.. Here it is...

Its a challenge bitches..

But you wont... Cause you cant, really.. or im wrong, and i lose nothing.

Its a challenge .. Sirs
  • #397
  • Oct 25, 2015 3:03am Oct 25, 2015 3:03am
Why is it possible to predict price movements?

It's not possible. Anyone who taken even a freshman survey econ class knows that. If price movement were predictable, then price would immediately move to the "correct" value and no trading would be possible ( if everyone knew price was going up, you couldn't buy because no one would be willing to sell to you).
This is why traditional technical analysis doesn't work - it attempts to predict the unpredictable. So forget about predicting price , you can't. Don't waste your time with it and instead pursue more useful activities.
  • #398
  • Oct 25, 2015 3:08am Oct 25, 2015 3:08am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Thanks CJ likewise to you! I had a kind of revelation moment 3 months ego when something deep in me just flipped and light bulb went on. Mainly from waiting for price to hit certain level to follow the price. Formally I would wait for right time to strike but now I strike whenever its moving...difference has been rewarding.Not spending lots of wasted time waiting for "set Ups". Not that its not the right thing waiting for set ups but my account profits tells me importance of this differences. In essence price is always in motion even when...
Been there in much the same way. I started as everybody. Bought stuff out the ass, books, ea's, systems. Countless hours in the forums, soaking up info like sponge. When it was all said and done, like others, numerous busted accounts, short periods of success the throw more funds in and no progress being made.
It was only after I tossed all the crap and started making my observations, spending hour upon hour looking at charts and patterns, that it started to dawn on me. I would see something and think, no this can't be right... not supposed to be that way. But as the time in the charts increased, these "things" were being confirmed. It was during this time, while a member of a private forum, who's owner was developing a new type, neural net, that things really came around. I started using tools that worked with equities and adapting them to the faster market that forex is. This is when I really concentrated on using only the BARF exhaustion pattern as my only trade setup and my bankroll was growing... As conviction and confidence grew, I started the stacking of orders on these super high R:R trades... and they bankroll grew much faster. The trades ran for days. Using noting but a simple price/volume exhaustion pattern, I had become what I would call successful. One repetitive pattern, with a set of defined rules... "One ring to rule them all..." lol

Anyway, we were testing this neural net signal service that was being created, There was one version that was fantastic at spotting trade setups. It would toss out an entry zone, SL area and 3 TP areas. It was really decent and should have been marketed then, but you had to use a member created utility to print these "zones" on your chart. It's still in development but the last time I saw it, it was untradable. Otherwise it was just a lot of numbers which most people had no clue in how to use it. As I was monitoring the charts for BARF setups, I began to notice that this signal was hitting a lot of the the charts I was looking at, and it was actually targeting the BARF or should say the same conditions. The net took a lot of things into consideration, but it's best signals basically turned out to be BARF patterns. I always left the signals on my charts there to help other users who were struggling with the signals that were being sent. In time, I could actually tell the programmer what it's next signal was going to be and on what chart it would print. His net was "seeing" the price/volume exhaustion pattern, not with eyes but by the formula that had been programmed into it. I was offered a position with them for development but declined. It was from that forum that I left and basically started on the public forums. The private forum had nothing there to keep my interest any longer.

I take tons of screen shots and save them all... and review them from time to time. You see a lot of those here. About this same time, my wife, who could still do all the things she did before her sickness, started to have falling spells. Her bones were weak and twice she fell and broke ribs. It was a hard time for us, and decisions had to be made about her care. I was not going to shelf her in a nursing home. I had also continued working on a lot of the stuff that I've posed here. And it was becoming much clearer. The "light" was and had been a steady flicker for some time now, but then. It came on brighter than it had ever been and I knew... it's never went back off. This is when I really began to "see" and take my trading to a new level via different means. It was also this exact moment that I new I would be retiring and staying home with my wife as her caregiver. I cried like a baby that night. Once again, God provided for us what we needed and was never even asked to do it. Praise the Lord!

It was a life changing event for us. That is why I try to share info in hopes somebody else will "see' the light and change their lives as well. From the emails I receive, many have and that makes it very worth the effort. You know when I say, that once you "see", you will never be able to "un-see" after that moment. The switch is on and it doesn't go off.

As you can tell from some of those charts, I don't always look for a setup... I trade where there is profit to be made. This would be the "reacting" to price as you put it. Shorts after longs, after shorts.... either way, doesn't matter.

Those ranging periods come about at times, by the MM holding a major while they work the minor or exotic crosses in the pair. Or minor and exotic crosses are held while the majors are worked. Price is always moving, just at different lengths and velocities.

And there is a "rhythm" to the trades... you can almost see it at times.

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #399
  • Oct 25, 2015 3:17am Oct 25, 2015 3:17am
Quoting Kong
{quote} Cool... I laughed when you were said that your results were "incredible" Sorry.. They're not.. Even if they were real
See, even a person like you received something from the thread! You're welcome, mate!

You want to know what made me laugh? I was told a long time ago that the FF had become the cesspool of forex, and now I've had the opportunity to actually see a turd float to the surface! Hahahahaha!

I guess I owe you a thank you too for your contribution, well done!

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #400
  • Oct 25, 2015 3:33am Oct 25, 2015 3:33am
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} See, even a person like you received something from the thread! You're welcome, mate! You want to know what made me laugh? I was told a long time ago that the FF had become the cesspool of forex, and now I've had the opportunity to actually see a turd float to the surface! Hahahahaha! I guess I owe you a thank you too for your contribution, well done! -CJ-
bit old for name calling arent you? Just do the challeng and shut the ape up.. Whats with the politics.. Anyone would think you're greacing... Christmas time n all

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZimhL9YvzI
Time hides Nothing
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