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Why it is possible to predict price movement?

  • #281
  • Oct 24, 2015 1:52am Oct 24, 2015 1:52am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} Flattering. The fact remains, one cannot predict future prices with certainty as that is tantamount to predicting the future. Its quite disturbing that this kind of thinking is so prevalent.
I truly hope they do not ban you. Dissent is needed. I can very safely say that you are skeptical because of a lack of information. In fact, you do not need all the prediction mumbo jumbo. Just learn how to follow the Fox!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #282
  • Oct 24, 2015 1:54am Oct 24, 2015 1:54am
This is what you should be studying, not price prediction....

-CJ-
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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #283
  • Oct 24, 2015 1:58am Oct 24, 2015 1:58am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} Flattering. The fact remains, one cannot predict future prices with certainty as that is tantamount to predicting the future. Its quite disturbing that this kind of thinking is so prevalent.
Check this post. Accurate to the extent that I would personally feel uncomfortable to explain it away with saying that it is a random plot from a random guy on the internet, and that one in a million is bound to get it right, without further study. So I studied, and blended in my own ideas.

The point of price prediction is that the mechanics of price movement, the fear and the greed occur on all timescales. Dumb money and smart money are not the same players across the timescales (or even necessarily before and at present moment), but they behave in the same way. The result is that the price signal is roughly self-similar. Big greed starts with small greed. Big fear starts with small fear.

k
  • #284
  • Edited 2:17am Oct 24, 2015 2:07am | Edited 2:17am
Why should a pinbar, a railroad, a M or W pattern (I guess they are like double tops and double bottoms), be more reliable than any other chart pattern or indicator? If it is true that price is manipulated, and probably it is, why should a pinbar be a safe place to enter a trade since a lot of people is in love with pinbar and love to place their stop behind them? It doesn't make much sense to me. Please clarify.
A pinbar to me is nothing, if you zoom into a pinbar you can see an impulse and a retracement, a slow opening and fast close, a fast entry and fast exit, a slow entry and slow exit, it can be very different things a pinbar.
  • #285
  • Oct 24, 2015 2:07am Oct 24, 2015 2:07am
Quoting jmn5611
I truly hope they do not ban you. Dissent is needed. I can very safely say that you are skeptical because of a lack of information. In fact, you do not need all the prediction mumbo jumbo. Just learn how to follow the Fox!
What on earth are you talking about?
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Check this post. Accurate to the extent that I would personally feel uncomfortable to explain it away with saying that it is a random plot from a random guy on the internet, and that one in a million is bound to get it right, without further study.
That is, in fact, what I am trying to debunk.
  • #286
  • Oct 24, 2015 2:20am Oct 24, 2015 2:20am
Quoting Atokys
That is, in fact, what I am trying to debunk.
Well, contradiction is not an argument, and with your approach ("it is not possible") you can't really debunk anything. The fact is, you are biased and that influences your rationality. The rational way to approach this is to study it.

k
  • #287
  • Oct 24, 2015 2:25am Oct 24, 2015 2:25am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Well, contradiction is not an argument, and with your approach ("it is not possible") you can't really debunk anything. The fact is, you are biased and that influences your rationality. The rational way to approach this is to study it. k
There isn't really an argument here. I reject the presuppositions that underlie the discussion because they are absurd and equate to predicting the future.
  • #288
  • Oct 24, 2015 2:26am Oct 24, 2015 2:26am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} What on earth are you talking about? {quote} That is, in fact, what I am trying to debunk.
If you do not know what I am talking about, then that means we do not yet have a common language. This is because of lack of information. Ask questions! It is always good to ask specific questions!

Quoting Atokys
{quote} There isn't really an argument here. I reject the presuppositions that underlie the discussion because they are absurd and equate to predicting the future.
The future is merely an extrapolation of the past.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #289
  • Oct 24, 2015 2:35am Oct 24, 2015 2:35am
Quoting simond2002
{quote} Hey CJ, I'm interested to learn more about the "intent" element. Direction I totally get. But intent? If I'm not mistaken I think you refer to the levels/pa that the market movers make as "tracks"? I refer to them as "footprints" but I think we're talking about the same thing more or less. I understand that unless I trade in harmony with those footprints it's "curtains". Take today's EURAUD H4 for example. It's "after the fact" I'm afraid but illustrates the point. The original H4 supply zone/track/footprint tells us that selling interest...
Basically yes, but it's really all about the levels and where you are in the cycle. That is the key. Once location within the cycle is known, all "intent" is known as well. You use a H4 chart so I take you are trading on that period. What is important is to check the time frames above and below your trading period... there could be an underlying cycle that you are missing or you can get a better overall picture of that cycle. Take a look at these charts.... One is a line graph that filters the distortion and will help you see it clearly. That pair has completed a WK 3 level rise and release. In line with the coming drop in the EUR pairs, we can look for a 3 level drop and release on the WK time period.... many weeks of trade progressions lower as well as CT's.... yada, yada, yada.... lol

Its hard to see this on the H4 for the added distortion. Remember I said they can try all they want to hide this but they can't when you know what to look for, and yes, this is the trail right into the Fox's den.... this is what we want. This is where those "pins" are gold at spotting the stopping the reversals on the way down... as well as re-entry.

It's really pretty clear when you get the hang of it.... when level 3 has been attained, longs are enticed and trapped... the "M" usually forms.... it's there. Once this happens, if there order book is full, you could have a straight release down to level 1 drop.... or you can have a stop hunt below the highs, to add more orders and trap additional longs up top... sometimes they double dip...it can be a 2nd, smaller "M" that prints higher than the 1st...always higher cause its the bait to trap the longs.... or in this case, hit the stop hunt area twice... then they drop price away and leave all the pain at the top....

You can make some trading plans on this pair for the future "if" the EUR drops, but since nobody can predict the future with certainty, I guess we will just have to wait and see if the if we rip some chickens from the jaws of that ole Fox now.

-CJ-
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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #290
  • Oct 24, 2015 2:37am Oct 24, 2015 2:37am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} There isn't really an argument here. I reject the presuppositions that underlie the discussion because they are absurd and equate to predicting the future.
Yet here you still are.....

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #291
  • Edited 3:00am Oct 24, 2015 2:40am | Edited 3:00am
Quoting Mag357
Why should a pinbar, a railroad, a M or W pattern (I guess they are like double tops and double bottoms), be more reliable than any other chart pattern or indicator? If it is true that price is manipulated, and probably it is, why should a pinbar be a safe place to enter a trade since a lot of people is in love with pinbar and love to place their stop behind them? It doesn't make much sense to me. Please clarify. A pinbar to me is nothing, if you zoom into a pinbar you can see an impulse and a retracement, a slow opening and fast close, a fast entry...
It's not just any pin, its a pin in the right spot.... RRT's are indicative of an "M" or "W"... pins low is a "W", pins high is the "M".

It is the "M" and "W" at the peak high or peak low of the cycle, which indicates major reversal.... it's the ground floor.... or the penthouse....

Longs get trapped in the topping pin bars high and shorts get trapped in the low ones... price never returns to those pins because it would allow the trapped traders to close their orders... check up on trapping volume if you will....

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #292
  • Oct 24, 2015 2:46am Oct 24, 2015 2:46am
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} Yet here you still are..... -CJ-
My commitment to posting in such threads is inspired by the influential FF poster Mingary.
  • #293
  • Oct 24, 2015 2:48am Oct 24, 2015 2:48am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} There isn't really an argument here. I reject the presuppositions that underlie the discussion because they are absurd
I agree that there is not an argument here. But, it is your attitude that is absurd.

Quoting Atokys
{quote}...predicting the future.
If a person is overweight, goes to the toilet often and has problems with vision, any medical doctor can suspect the condition and good ones can give accurate predictions about what happens in the future if the person's diabetes is left untreated. There is not really much conceptual difference here. In order for a person to become blind from diabetes, they are likely to experience problems with vision first. In order for price to go a 1000 pips up, it first must travel a 100 pips.

For what is worth, the trend trading is imho not different. One just relies on the thick-tailed distributions, and basically works on the assumption that the trend is going to proceed. You might think you don't predict anything, but if that were really true, you would never place a trade in the first place .

k
  • #294
  • Oct 24, 2015 2:50am Oct 24, 2015 2:50am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Check this post. Accurate to the extent that I would personally feel uncomfortable to explain it away with saying that it is a random plot from a random guy on the internet, and that one in a million is bound to get it right, without further study. So I studied, and blended in my own ideas. The point of price prediction is that the mechanics of price movement, the fear and the greed occur on all timescales. Dumb money and smart money are not the same players across...
The most important part of that post you linked, is the last line.... it goes much lower... so what do they come up with to cause that???

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #295
  • Oct 24, 2015 2:53am Oct 24, 2015 2:53am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} My commitment to posting in such threads is inspired by the influential FF poster Mingary.
Well then, welcome aboard for the ride... wherever in takes you on your journey to becoming an influential poster such as your mentor.

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #296
  • Oct 24, 2015 3:06am Oct 24, 2015 3:06am
Quoting kprsa
I agree that there is not an argument here. But, it is your attitude that is absurd.
I agree the tone was quite strong. Don't take it personally, im always addressing my posts to the average poster whose conception of trading is to grab as many pips off the 1 minute chart before lunch. If I manage to shake up their settled beliefs then I think the tone is warranted.

Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} Well then, welcome aboard for the ride... wherever in takes you on your journey to becoming an influential poster such as your mentor. -CJ-
Thank you.
  • #297
  • Oct 24, 2015 3:20am Oct 24, 2015 3:20am
This just became my new favorite thread as it discusses and supports a basic, life long belief I hold. "There is nothing new under the sun"

Thanks for your time and effort here CJ.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #298
  • Oct 24, 2015 4:01am Oct 24, 2015 4:01am
Quoting albchr
This just became my new favorite thread as it discusses and supports a basic, life long belief I hold. "There is nothing new under the sun" Thanks for your time and effort here CJ.
Thanks and I see you ride too.... here's my baby!

-CJ-
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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #299
  • Oct 24, 2015 4:06am Oct 24, 2015 4:06am
Quoting Mag357
Why should a pinbar, a railroad, a M or W pattern (I guess they are like double tops and double bottoms), be more reliable than any other chart pattern or indicator? If it is true that price is manipulated, and probably it is, why should a pinbar be a safe place to enter a trade since a lot of people is in love with pinbar and love to place their stop behind them? It doesn't make much sense to me. Please clarify. A pinbar to me is nothing, if you zoom into a pinbar you can see an impulse and a retracement, a slow opening and fast close, a fast entry...
Are you sure we are looking for the same things here? Cause a pin bar sure means something to me

-CJ-
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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #300
  • Oct 24, 2015 4:20am Oct 24, 2015 4:20am
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} Thanks and I see you ride too.... here's my baby! -CJ- {image}
Since I was 4. (60cc Yamaha mini endure) .... That's just .... Sexy!

Don't want to clutter things here so back to lurking/learning mode for me.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
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