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  • #261
  • Oct 23, 2015 11:21pm Oct 23, 2015 11:21pm
zacorbul: statistical arbitrage does not seek a market direction. in the options world, selling premium is also a good example. luckily, volatility is certainly mean reverting (statistically and should make sense logically). good current example is the amount of premium priced into spy despite the beta on qqq.

captain jack. i hate the term black swan. it is meaningless. if you have a distribution with excess kurtosis as we have observed, the notion of a 6+ standard deviation event is not impossible to see in our lifetimes (and we have). as for seeing patterns on multiple time frames. much analysis has been done to fit pattern occurences on randomly generated stochastic processes. to your point they occur often on different scales. unfortunately this indicates that there is little predictive power. one point that you stated regarding a sort of building process in which a small events propagates into a larger one - take a look at autoregressive processes. what you describe is well studied and quantified in processes with unit roots. so called "shocks" propagate for infinitely long timeframes. another similar phenomenon is the presence of strange attractors in dynamical systems. but overall i think the key here as you said is a lagging signal. pm me if you want to discuss a model i use - you seem legit.
  • #262
  • Oct 23, 2015 11:27pm Oct 23, 2015 11:27pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
Captain Jack - thanks kindly for the contribution here. I've been a "student" of reversals as you describe for some time...very good info to add to the quiver.. It's not easy to accept the predictability of the market initially. Once you allow yourself to look beyond what everyone says, you'll be surprised by what you find.
If you trade the reversals, those "pins" are the key.... guy nailed his exit on those trades in the previous chart...knew the retrace was coming but chose not to trade it.... not perfect but profitable for sure...

-CJ-
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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #263
  • Oct 23, 2015 11:47pm Oct 23, 2015 11:47pm
Quoting TheQuant
zacorbul: statistical arbitrage does not seek a market direction. in the options world, selling premium is also a good example. luckily, volatility is certainly mean reverting (statistically and should make sense logically). good current example is the amount of premium priced into spy despite the beta on qqq. captain jack. i hate the term black swan. it is meaningless. if you have a distribution with excess kurtosis as we have observed, the notion of a 6+ standard deviation event is not impossible to see in our lifetimes (and we have). as for seeing...
To be honest, I take what you say as believable within the rules of science and math. I have no scientific basis to dispute it nor do I seek to. Thanks for the offer to discuss your model but it would be lost on me.

No matter how much technology and science has evolved, no matter how powerful computers are, they are in the infant stage of facial recognition...facial patterns. They still lack what we can do as humans... pattern recognition. Some pattern recognition systems already work for forex, like harmonics. They work within the laws and rules of science and math and they find patterns over and over again because they are based on certain ratios with accepted deviance. They find the small butterfly on say a 1M or 5M chart because it fits a programmed set of rules. They also find this same exact pattern, on the same pairs higher time period chart, which turns out to be a much larger butterfly. This works because they use ratios and as long as the ratio between plotted points remains within the accepted norm, they will find the matching small, medium and large pattern on the same pair when they are printing. In a way, they can confirm what I'm saying. BUT, like any indicator or ea, they are only programmed to see a finite set of data...

Perhaps you could take a tick chart pattern and measure the ratios between peaks, valleys, length and width of the pattern, and angles then scan the charts as a harmonic indicator does looking for a match.

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #264
  • Oct 23, 2015 11:53pm Oct 23, 2015 11:53pm
Quoting TheQuant
zacorbul: statistical arbitrage does not seek a market direction. in the options world, selling premium is also a good example. luckily, volatility is certainly mean reverting (statistically and should make sense logically). good current example is the amount of premium priced into spy despite the beta on qqq. captain jack. i hate the term black swan. it is meaningless. if you have a distribution with excess kurtosis as we have observed, the notion of a 6+ standard deviation event is not impossible to see in our lifetimes (and we have). as for seeing...
I agree with most of what you have written here on this post, except please define what you mean by lagging signal. Lagging LN(Yt/L^nYt) by taking ACF and PACF shows negligible serial correlation within 95% confidence bands. If you are speaking about lagging positive/negative correlated instrument via EMH it is more likely the case that the arbitrage opportunity would be in milliseconds given our HFT algos.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #265
  • Oct 23, 2015 11:56pm Oct 23, 2015 11:56pm
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} To be honest, I take what you say as believable within the rules of science and math. I have no scientific basis to dispute it nor do I seek to. Thanks for the offer to discuss your model but it would be lost on me. No matter how much technology and science has evolved, no matter how powerful computers are, they are in the infant stage of facial recognition...facial patterns. They still lack what we can do as humans... pattern recognition. Some pattern recognition systems already work for forex, like harmonics. They work within the laws...
humans have a tendency to see patterns where there are none, hence clouds can look like horses.
Superstition and God believes are highly prevalent in our societies.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #266
  • Oct 23, 2015 11:59pm Oct 23, 2015 11:59pm
Quoting TheQuant
zacorbul: statistical arbitrage does not seek a market direction. in the options world, selling premium is also a good example. luckily, volatility is certainly mean reverting (statistically and should make sense logically). good current example is the amount of premium priced into spy despite the beta on qqq. captain jack. i hate the term black swan. it is meaningless. if you have a distribution with excess kurtosis as we have observed, the notion of a 6+ standard deviation event is not impossible to see in our lifetimes (and we have). as for seeing...
Since nobody mentioned the 5M chart from Dec. 2014, with the warning for the SNB intervention, I'll continue with it now.... Pattern recognition at work.

There is no continuation to the event on the H4 chart because when you bring the drop into the pic, everything to the flattens to a line with a chart scale change.

-CJ
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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #267
  • Edited 12:13am Oct 24, 2015 12:02am | Edited 12:13am
Hi Captain Jack,

Q1) Do we need to see tick chart to understand what u are saying? Can any other TFs work like M1 or M15 or H1, any recommendations to hasten the process?

Q2) Are u meaning actually to say the patterns are the same across every TF? The only difference is that the candlestick height itself is different across different TFs? eg. M1 = M5 = M15 = M30 = H1 = H4 = D1 = W1 = MN charts? And if so, what is the illusion of the different TFs, why is it they are the same except in y-axis?

Q3) how do I train my brain to see the printed footprints of the fox to recognize the same patterns occurring from a M1 enlarging them to M5 and to M15, H1, H4, D1, W1 then finally to Month? Its not easy even though I had been like staring charts for hours, days, months. Its still hard to see the patterns u said, is there any simple way to help us see better?

Q4) Do u mind putting it as simple as possible what is the trap or illusion the fox is trying to make? The choppy building up of long or short orders? or the buildup of Trend? or the sudden crash following a Trend?

Q5) Won't the banks trick the traders by creating more levels instead of 3 since all these info is now out in the public? And will the fox change its strategy in the future? If yes, how can we still be the hunter and not the hunted?

Q6) The pins u are mentioning doesn't works some of the time, is there any way to increase its accuracy or identifying those that works most of the time?

Q7) Aren't the various banks fighting against each other, and won't they kill each other over all these? And if so it seems funny how can they win each other?

Thanks and I would greatly appreciate it if u can answer my questions. As I am trying hard to understand what u are saying and seeing.

Thanks & Best Regards,
LearnAlways
I only know I know nothing
  • #268
  • Oct 24, 2015 12:10am Oct 24, 2015 12:10am
Quoting LearnAlways
Hi Captain Jack, Q1) Do we need to see tick chart to understand what u are saying? Can any other TFs work like M1 or M15 or H1, any recommendations to hasten the process? Q2) Are u meaning actually to say the patterns are the same across every TF? The only difference is that the candlestick height itself is different across different TFs? eg. M1 = M5 = M15 = M30 = H1 = H4 = D1 = W1 = MN charts? And if so, what is the illusion of the different TFs, why is it they are the same except in y-axis? Q3) how do I train my brain to see the printed footprints...
I fail to see how Banks care about traders, when "tricking" people... we are talking about a country's currency here right? the Trillions of Dollars that are transacted, in may different ways. I also fail to see spot fx as a purely speculative asset class.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #269
  • Oct 24, 2015 12:31am Oct 24, 2015 12:31am
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} Forgive me if I misunderstand you..... but.... there are no random graphs being generated within the Forex market. Sit back and try to understand how the charts on your screen are created. They consist of 2 axis... one for time and one for price. We have time and we have price of the instrument. Time is constant, it is a given. Without time, we would have one single candle on the screen within which price would travel up or down, confined to the single candle. Time is used to index the chart, one candle at a time, based on the time frame...
your description on how candles are made is spot on but then you go into woo woo territory, what appears more likely to me is the following:

once you convert eurusd logarithmic returns of the one minute chart (pick your time frame here which works exactly as you said by snap shot of transactions , liquidity etc) then you turn that logarithmic data into binary data of +1, -1 each time a candle closes above/below open (regardless of deviation, we are purely formulating a binary / coin toss like data), you will have an underlying drift = trend in a random-like brownian motion type behavior then our brain looks at the pattern and begins to project intent/agency/ predictability in a random-like movement.

[1] -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 1 1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1
[31] -1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 1 1 -1 1 1 1 1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1
[61] -1 1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 1
[91] -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 1 1 1
[121] -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1
[151] -1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 -1 1 1 -1
[181] 1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1
[211] -1 1 -1 1 1 -1 1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1
[241] 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 1 -1 1 1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 1 1 -1 -1
[271] 1 1 -1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 -1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1
[301] -1 1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1
[331] 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1
[361] -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1
[391] 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 1
[421] 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 1 -1 1
[451] -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1
[481] -1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1
[511] 1 1 1 -1 1 1 -1 1 1 -1 1 1 -1 1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 1
[541] 1 1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 1 1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1
[571] -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 1 -1 1 1 -1 1 -1
[601] -1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 -1 1 -1 1 1 1
[631] -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 1 1 -1 1 -1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1
[661] 1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1
[691] -1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
[721] -1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1
[751] 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1
[781] -1 -1 1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1
[811] -1 -1 1 1 1 -1 1 -1 1 1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 1 1
[841] -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 1 -1 1 1 1 -1 -1
[871] 1 -1 1 -1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1
[901] -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 -1
[931] 1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 1 -1 1 1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 1
[961] -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
[991] -1 1 -1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 1
[1021] 1 1 -1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 1 -1 1
[1051] -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1

I am sure you will find a way to see the pattern here that the banks "conspire" to take our money.

here is a chart of the binary data +1/-1 without accounting for magnitude (standard deviation) just whether it closed above or below open.

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here is the same data when accounting for magnitude of the movement (the actual minute candle chart data- closing price)

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here is the volatility (standard deviation of the same data)

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in summary there were more negative candles than positive candles but the difference in the charts is accounted by the difference in magnitude which is the volatility of the logarithmic returns of that particular section of the minute chart. Do not let your brain fool you by applying patterns where they do not belong.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #270
  • Oct 24, 2015 12:31am Oct 24, 2015 12:31am
Quoting the redlion
{quote} humans have a tendency to see patterns where there are none, hence clouds can look like horses. Superstition and God believes are highly prevalent in our societies.
Very true, however I don't see dead people, I see patterns.... and you know what... you see it too and now you can get it out of your head.

Spot on 100% accurate...from tick to maturation on the D1... haven't look for at the WK or MN on this one yet.... haven't needed to.

-CJ-
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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #271
  • Oct 24, 2015 12:35am Oct 24, 2015 12:35am
Quoting the redlion
{quote} I fail to see how Banks care about traders, when "tricking" people... we are talking about a country's currency here right? the Trillions of Dollars that are transacted, in may different ways. I also fail to see spot fx as a purely speculative asset class.
The banks are the T-Rex's of this game and could care less about you and me.... but there's plenty of raptors out and about....looking for a meal....

But they will devour hedge funds and brokers with impunity.... millions and billions there....

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #272
  • Oct 24, 2015 12:38am Oct 24, 2015 12:38am
Quoting TheQuant
zacorbul: statistical arbitrage does not seek a market direction. in the options world, selling premium is also a good example. luckily, volatility is certainly mean reverting (statistically and should make sense logically). good current example is the amount of premium priced into spy despite the beta on qqq. captain jack. i hate the term black swan. it is meaningless. if you have a distribution with excess kurtosis as we have observed, the notion of a 6+ standard deviation event is not impossible to see in our lifetimes (and we have). as for seeing...
Wow. Sounds complicated.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #273
  • Oct 24, 2015 12:41am Oct 24, 2015 12:41am
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} I've already revealed more than was supposed to be, at least more than we were supposed to know, a long time ago and my paranoia level remains the same. After all, these are the banks of the worlds nations we are talking about here....think about it. As for loss or trade management, I can not teach you how to manage your order placement or losses because you have a different view of risk than I do. We are all individuals and we have to each find a way to incorporate these findings into our own trading styles. In time, your view of risk and...
I'm glad I'm not the only one who has reservations when I talk about the market.

Quoting Captain Jack
I just wanted to show you some of the trades that the people in our group make each and every day.... here's one that just went from a trader who's following the Fox! Nicely done might add! All you need is price! How many of you see those numbers of pips in a month or even a year??? Not very many I would wager. -CJ- {image}
Yes, following the Fox. You are so better a presenter than I am CJ, so much better.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #274
  • Oct 24, 2015 12:56am Oct 24, 2015 12:56am
Quoting the redlion
{quote} I fail to see how Banks care about traders, when "tricking" people... we are talking about a country's currency here right? the Trillions of Dollars that are transacted, in may different ways. I also fail to see spot fx as a purely speculative asset class.
Here, look at the yearly price of EURUSD and gold (black line) and the net positions (histogram) of Oanda customers (retail/dumb money/losers). You should notice the inverse correlation between the price and the net retail position. The price in general appears to work its way easily (small or no pullbacks) when the dumb money is on the wrong side and increasing their position (what I call irrational behaviour). When the dumb money on average catches up with the trend, the pullbacks appear - typically to the Gann's half the swing size rule - with the effect that the dumb money on average believes reversal has occurred. This is why I think trend following strategies work/why you have tendencies for a thick-tailed distributions of the returns in freely traded markets. The winners in the markets are the guys with the bigger guns. Dumb money as a whole on average just fills their orders. How else could it work?

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I have studied CJ's thread at stevehopwoodforex in detail and have given it a great deal of thought. I think his work describes the mechanics of the price movement accurately.

Cheers,
k

CJ: all the best and thank you. k
  • #275
  • Oct 24, 2015 12:56am Oct 24, 2015 12:56am
Quoting the redlion
{quote} your description on how candles are made is spot on but then you go into woo woo territory, what appears more likely to me is the following: once you convert eurusd logarithmic returns of the one minute chart (pick your time frame here which works exactly as you said by snap shot of transactions , liquidity etc) then you turn that logarithmic data into binary data of +1, -1 each time a candle closes above/below open (regardless of deviation, we are purely formulating a binary / coin toss like data), you will have an underlying drift = trend...
I see the Mona Lisa in all those -1's

And how do your calculations explain the GBPJPY tick and D1 charts? Do you think that a one off anomaly? It's not....

Let me throw some more crap into the hopper.... these patterns are not a one and done on the lower time frames.... do you think that tick chart tells an endless, ever changing story? It doesn't it runs the same patterns over and over, in a loop building the active candle patterns on the charts.... YES IT DOES... IT IS THE BLUEPRINT FOR THE BUILDER

Why do you think they make it so small and nearly invisible???

It's not me that you are trying to convince here friend, your world of forex has been rocked and your trying to convince yourself this isn't true... yes??

Noting will ever convince me that this is anything other than what I'm showing you folks here. It's not for my benefit, it's for all those people trying to eek out a better life for their families but instead, they are losing money they can ill afford to lose. And you know what, it's working for many as I could fill your inbox with letters from people all over the world who are now seeing this for the 1st time. I could travel the world and never have to pay for a place to stay if I visited everybody who's offered to buy me a drink and a bed at their house. Wealth is not measured by money alone. You can't put a price on something that you do for somebody who can never repay you for what you have given them. That's why I do it. Money can be made anytime, that's a given.

Nothing more and nothing less

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #276
  • Oct 24, 2015 1:20am Oct 24, 2015 1:20am
I want to be very clear here and I want you to know that of the thousands of people who are following this and other forums, NOT ONE SINGLE PERSON HAS BEEN ABLE TO TO THESE PREDICTIONS!

Several have tried and some had some success, but in the end, to my knowledge, I'm still the only one who does it and I no longer do it to aid my trading.

That is why I advise everybody not to attempt to do this.... I know what it took for me to reach this point, and I know there's nobody out there that's going to do the same thing... I know because the requests are for the "quicK, "easy", "fast", way of doing it. I did this while I was working a 70hrs a week in a coal mine, commuting 140 miles a day to that job and taking care of my wife. Do you think that was easy??

If you want fast and easy, it's on EBAY for $97!

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #277
  • Oct 24, 2015 1:31am Oct 24, 2015 1:31am
Quoting zacorbul
{quote} Were you getting "ronery " under that bridge of yours so you decided to visit us? And who are you to decide that "this has gone on long enough" ?! Back to your lair fiend, nobody wants you.
Flattering.

The fact remains, one cannot predict future prices with certainty as that is tantamount to predicting the future. Its quite disturbing that this kind of thinking is so prevalent.
  • #278
  • Oct 24, 2015 1:31am Oct 24, 2015 1:31am
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} Very true, however I don't see dead people, I see patterns.... and you know what... you see it too and now you can get it out of your head. Spot on 100% accurate...from tick to maturation on the D1... haven't look for at the WK or MN on this one yet.... haven't needed to. -CJ- {image} {image}
Like your style....building up a storehouse of patterns.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #279
  • Oct 24, 2015 1:49am Oct 24, 2015 1:49am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} Flattering. The fact remains, one cannot predict future prices with certainty as that is tantamount to predicting the future. Its quite disturbing that this kind of thinking is so prevalent.
I thought that also, until a pissed off Delta guy gave out the code. I was a long time Gann guy, then I let it go because I realized his TA superseded his predictions. But now, I am confident that cycle analysis is important.

CJ, is telling you to study patterns. They to recur. Do they recur in set intervals? Who knows? Who cares? If this is your business, you will know when a pattern is about to complete and you will crush it.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #280
  • Oct 24, 2015 1:51am Oct 24, 2015 1:51am
Who ask for the stack and protect example.... here's a better one from older days.....

-CJ-
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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
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