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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #19,821
  • Oct 23, 2015 1:26am Oct 23, 2015 1:26am
maybe this..

EU Daily
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  • #19,822
  • Oct 23, 2015 3:41am Oct 23, 2015 3:41am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} Currently EU Long seem dangerous, at least for mid-term .... looking for Short instead.
Yesterday night I made a long at 10,80. Scalp 20 points, that's all. From my point of view the desirable situation is that the market will do a bigger regret, to think in shorts. Maybe 11,55-11-80. Not before. After 245 points, market needs a breathe.
  • #19,823
  • Oct 23, 2015 4:03am Oct 23, 2015 4:03am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Yesterday night I made a long at 10,80. Scalp 20 points, that's all. From my point of view the desirable situation is that the market will do a bigger regret, to think in shorts. Maybe 11,55-11-80. Not before. After 245 points, market needs a breathe.


Indeed .... this is for next week:

Quoting andexQ
maybe this.. EU Daily {image}
  • #19,824
  • Oct 23, 2015 7:27am Oct 23, 2015 7:27am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} Indeed .... this is for next week: {quote}
Quoting andexQ
maybe this.. EU Daily {image}

Mmmm .... maybe that's could happen this week as well.
  • #19,825
  • Oct 23, 2015 2:26pm Oct 23, 2015 2:26pm
2 Turkish Parliament Members: Turkey Provided Chemical Weapons for Syrian Terrorist Attack


It was ever my understanding, that Assad was not so stupid to use chemical weapons when the world would watch closely......
  • #19,826
  • Oct 23, 2015 2:29pm Oct 23, 2015 2:29pm
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Yesterday night I made a long at 10,80. Scalp 20 points, that's all. From my point of view the desirable situation is that the market will do a bigger regret, to think in shorts. Maybe 11,55-11-80. Not before. After 245 points, market needs a breathe.
I thought that in the 1.28-1.3080 region, too. But all I got was drop, drop, drop. And that left me waiting without or with reduced EU short position for months LOL
  • #19,827
  • Oct 23, 2015 2:45pm Oct 23, 2015 2:45pm
Yesterday and today, sitting in my "base camp" on Dent Blanche, I watched with disbelief, how quick the retail crowd got bullish.

It pays most of the time to watch the retail broker outlets for retail positioning (and doing the opposite)

You can watch some here: http://singulorum001.blogspot.fr/p/sentiment.html


In such strong momentum moves, it is a bad idea to counter trade the movement. Even when you are very good with levels, you can not know how far the retracement will go. It is much more better to wait for a retracement (in this case up), and play then the short side again (in direction of trend).

It makes sense to trade both movements (up and down), when market tries to find a range
  • #19,828
  • Oct 23, 2015 2:51pm Oct 23, 2015 2:51pm
Please sign Petition


https://www.change.org/p/tell-presid...spital-bombing


Tell President Obama to Consent to Independent Investigation of Kunduz Hospital Bombing

Doctors Without Borders/Mdecins Sans Frontires (MSF) USA
  • #19,829
  • Oct 23, 2015 2:53pm Oct 23, 2015 2:53pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-1...uld-buy-stocks

We have seen before word "could" in 2014 when possible ECB QE was discussed. Overseeing situation structurally could is will. Just matter of time. Let the mighty economists discuss on TV how couldy the could is.
  • #19,830
  • Oct 23, 2015 2:54pm Oct 23, 2015 2:54pm
Quoting infinitus
Yesterday and today, sitting in my "base camp" on Dent Blanche, I watched with disbelief, how quick the retail crowd got bullish. It pays most of the time to watch the retail broker outlets for retail positioning (and doing the opposite) You can watch some here: http://singulorum001.blogspot.fr/p/sentiment.html In such strong momentum moves, it is a bad idea to counter trade the movement. Even when you are very good with levels, you can not know how far the retracement will go. It is much more better to wait for a retracement (in this...
Check EU thread, some guy made post there about retail positioning.
  • #19,831
  • Oct 23, 2015 3:19pm Oct 23, 2015 3:19pm
Quoting janpec1000
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-1...uld-buy-stocks We have seen before word "could" in 2014 when possible ECB QE was discussed. Overseeing situation structurally could is will. Just matter of time. Let the mighty economists discuss on TV how couldy the could is.

  • #19,832
  • Oct 23, 2015 3:34pm Oct 23, 2015 3:34pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I thought that in the 1.28-1.3080 region, too. But all I got was drop, drop, drop. And that left me waiting without or with reduced EU short position for months LOL
Yes, that's truth. Well, I could make a long scalping because I had this point marked,with some fibo-resistance and gap filled. I was waiting for more retracement, as usual, what it hasn't done it. Yes,indeed, we forget the special situation that means a Draghi's speech or FOMC statement, the market doesn't behave as usual.
  • #19,833
  • Oct 23, 2015 3:36pm Oct 23, 2015 3:36pm
Nice idea:

https://twitter.com/mtylcnr/status/6...058946/photo/1


watch the 1-2's unfold on different degrees


if true, bulls are in for spanking
  • #19,834
  • Oct 23, 2015 3:43pm Oct 23, 2015 3:43pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Check EU thread, some guy made post there about retail positioning.
Forex futures market speculative positions data from the CFTC commitments of traders report as of the close on 20 October 2015

  1. EUR short 63K vs. 81K short prior week
  2. GBP long 7.5 K vs. 8K short prior week
  3. JPY short 4K vs. 14K short prior week
  4. CAD short 27K vs. 34K short prior week
  5. CHF short 1K vs. 2K short prior week
  6. AUD short 38K vs. 34K short prior week
  7. NZD long 4K vs 1K long prior week

EUR shorts are the smallest since the July 8, 2014 week.
GBP net position is long for the first time since the Sept 9, 2014 week.
JPY position is the smallest short position since October 16, 2012
http://az705044.vo.msecnd.net/201510...3_16-09-24.png
What sticks out is how uninvolved the market was as of the close on Tuesday. The EUR position was the lowest short since July 2014. There is no position in GBP, JPY, CHF and NZD. If the market is not invested, it could lead to traders scrambling to get back involved for fear of missing what may be the final boat before year end.
Thursday and Friday, saw increased activity in the EUR and a sharp move lower. That move may be the direct result of not having enough on. If the BOJ should turn their tune around sooner rather than later, that too could lead to a ramping back up of a position.

source : http://news.forexlive.com/!/cftc-com...-2015-20151023

  • #19,835
  • Oct 23, 2015 3:51pm Oct 23, 2015 3:51pm
Quoting edyraper
{quote} Forex futures market speculative positions data from the CFTC commitments of traders report as of the close on 20 October 2015 EUR short 63K vs. 81K short prior week GBP long 7.5 K vs. 8K short prior week JPY short 4K vs. 14K short prior week CAD short 27K vs. 34K short prior week CHF short 1K vs. 2K short prior week AUD short 38K vs. 34K short prior week NZD long 4K vs 1K long prior week EUR shorts are the smallest since the July 8, 2014 week. GBP net position is long for the first time since the Sept 9, 2014 week. JPY position is the smallest...



look at what the Comms (hedgers) have done over the last weeks: they have reduced their long position largely.

That led to a sustained COT Index of around 0, whereas the large speculators hit 100 in COT index. Thast is a good sign for shorting. But keep in mind: the COT data itself is a rather bad tool for timing
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  • #19,836
  • Oct 23, 2015 3:55pm Oct 23, 2015 3:55pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} look at what the Comms (hedgers) have done over the last weeks: they have reduced their long position largely. That led to a sustained COT Index of around 0, whereas the large speculators hit 100 in COT index. Thast is a good sign for shorting. But keep in mind: the COT data itself is a rather bad tool for timing {image}
could you please explain in basic english , I'm good at daily speaking but what is all COT , Comms ? , I can guess what the hedgers . and what is that picture , thanks
  • #19,837
  • Oct 23, 2015 4:07pm Oct 23, 2015 4:07pm
Quoting edyraper
{quote} Forex futures market speculative positions data from the CFTC commitments of traders report as of the close on 20 October 2015 EUR short 63K vs. 81K short prior week GBP long 7.5 K vs. 8K short prior week JPY short 4K vs. 14K short prior week CAD short 27K vs. 34K short prior week CHF short 1K vs. 2K short prior week AUD short 38K vs. 34K short prior week NZD long 4K vs 1K long prior week EUR shorts are the smallest since the July 8, 2014 week. GBP net position is long for the first time since the Sept 9, 2014 week. JPY position is the smallest...
All makes sense what you said. But to make it trade-able all i look for is BOJ as you pointed out. For trading it doesnt matter what happens 2 weeks after you might have been right, but only what you can trade on when you are right, fundie style speaking. BOJ decision will flip the books if they do it, another one is FED, but FED is way more unlikely than BOJ, so not bothered atm. But if either of them delivers ill get on train. I have been planing for BOJ since 2011 and so far got 2 QE-eed profits in, planning on third one. Who needs to print the most: first Greece (cant), second Japan, third England, fourth Mcdonalds (once scientific reasons for their food come out).
  • #19,838
  • Oct 23, 2015 4:18pm Oct 23, 2015 4:18pm
Quoting edyraper
{quote} could you please explain in basic english , I'm good at daily speaking but what is all COT , Comms ? , I can guess what the hedgers . and what is that picture , thanks

Hi,

COT = Commitments of traders ( a report of long and short holdings of the Commercials, the large traders, and the small traders in futures and options markets

COT Index =

C.O.T. Index - The Net Positions are used to create the C.O.T. Index. This index scales the results of the Net Positions to a range from 0 to 100 based on the specified lookback period which is input in the Index Weeks field. The Index Weeks is the number of weeks you want to use to create the scale. If you want to see the last 6 months then use 26 weeks, for 1 year, use 52 weeks, etc.

The C.O.T. Index finds the highest Net Position within the number of Input Weeks you request and assigns that a value of 100. It also finds the lowest value in the Index Weeks and assigns that a value of 0. All other Net Position values are assigned a value that places them in their respective position on the scale of 0 to 100.

C.O.T. Index = (Current Net Position - Minimum Net Position[Index Weeks]) / (Maximum Net Position[Index Weeks] - Minimum Net Position[Index Weeks])


The actual net position of the three groups is not so important. Important is, what they have done/how they are positioned in relation to the weeks before.


http://www.timingcharts.com/

http://timingcharts.com/help/

https://www.ireallytrade.com/cotreport.html

I am sure you will find his book in Internet (Trading with the Insiders by Larry Williams)
  • #19,839
  • Oct 23, 2015 4:18pm Oct 23, 2015 4:18pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} All makes sense what you said. But to make it trade-able all i look for is BOJ as you pointed out. For trading it doesnt matter what happens 2 weeks after you might have been right, but only what you can trade on when you are right, fundie style speaking. BOJ decision will flip the books if they do it, another one is FED, but FED is way more unlikely than BOJ, so not bothered atm. But if either of them delivers ill get on train. I have been planing for BOJ since 2011 and so far got 2 QE-eed profits in, planning on third one. Who needs to...
hi thanks for writing , I didn't write this ,I've mentioned the source ... I just surprised that euro shorts are in lowest levels , and dollar longs in the lowest levels ... and EURUSD falling wanted to share nothing more ...
  • #19,840
  • Oct 23, 2015 4:19pm Oct 23, 2015 4:19pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} All makes sense what you said. But to make it trade-able all i look for is BOJ as you pointed out. For trading it doesnt matter what happens 2 weeks after you might have been right, but only what you can trade on when you are right, fundie style speaking. BOJ decision will flip the books if they do it, another one is FED, but FED is way more unlikely than BOJ, so not bothered atm. But if either of them delivers ill get on train. I have been planing for BOJ since 2011 and so far got 2 QE-eed profits in, planning on third one. Who needs to...



can you elaborate on McDonalds, sounds interesting
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