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What is the Differences between Fibonacci Fan and Fibonacci Arcs 15 replies

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Fibonacci Indicator? Is it a big Joke?

  • #181
  • Oct 20, 2015 3:35am Oct 20, 2015 3:35am
Wasn't the OP's original question about whether or not the fib indicator is a joke?

I don't use the fib indicator in my own trading, nevertheless I'd never dispute the existence of Fibonacci ratios in nature or the market because clearly they do exist, however, in terms of what aspect of Fibonacci can be hunted/traded for a profit, what I would suggest is that the fib indicator levels that have a higher probability of "working" are already written into price-action/structure. And that price itself is the indicator.

Take the current M15 Gold chart for example:

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Reading pure PA and this morning's bullish move we don't need any indicators to see that there's clearly an area of price-action around 1171.70 that warrants some attention if, as and when the market returns. If we place a fib indicator into the chart we can also see the clear confluence at the 50 percent level.

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But if price does bounce here and give a long continuation entry does that mean that it's the indicator causing the bounce or has Fibonacci's data already been written into the market structure during this morning's M15 PA?
  • #182
  • Edited 4:53am Oct 20, 2015 4:29am | Edited 4:53am
The OP started this thread more than 4 years ago and I can understand his frustration ( I have been there), as there are so many flavours of fibonacci.
Retracements, Extensions, Expansions, Projections, Spirals, Fans, Arcs, Channels, Time Zones, Harmonics etc.
Where do you start ?

And then we have so many charts thrown around the forum with no explanations, random looking levels, hindsight explanations,
and so many different interpretations of how to use them. Who do you believe ?

What I found was that as Simond2002 says "confluence of signals", not only just from fibonacci and that helped. As in his example, fibs fell neatly into
his method of analysis and observe it is not a precise 50% level, there is wiggle room allowed.
Tip: use as an aid to your analysis and utilise as an entry, SL & TP tool.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #183
  • Oct 20, 2015 5:12am Oct 20, 2015 5:12am
Which kind of information trader expect to get from Fibonacci so s/he can claim that works or it doesn't work?
  • #184
  • Oct 20, 2015 5:40am Oct 20, 2015 5:40am
Quoting ruma29
Which kind of information trader expect to get from Fibonacci so s/he can claim that works or it doesn't work?
That's work that you have to do my friend and you make your own decision.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #185
  • Edited 5:58am Oct 20, 2015 5:47am | Edited 5:58am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} That's work that you have to do my friend and you make your own decision.
no, I do not use fib...understanding trading is pre-request for use of any indicator....
  • #186
  • Oct 20, 2015 10:23am Oct 20, 2015 10:23am
Quoting infernal199
{quote} My ques is: On which Chart (M1 to H4) Fib will work best? I mean more reliable?
fibs work on all timeframes, it doesn't matter what it is, it even work on none time based charts such as tick charts, range bars, etc, but you need to have a timeframe that at least produce some pips in their swings, so I would not really recommend 1 minute other than as a trigger chart for entry. everything in the universe have these numbers, even the human body, it is really spooky, but they are reliable, no specific timeframe is more reliable than any other. however you need more than fibs to trade, some traders will add Elliot wave with great success and that's all they use. Google Robert miner and fibonacci queen. ​
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
  • #187
  • Oct 20, 2015 11:10am Oct 20, 2015 11:10am
Quoting roughtrader
{quote}everything in the universe have these numbers, even the human body
Yes, I remember... Gods equations!!!
It is the dust where you came from & it is the dust where you shall return
  • #188
  • Edited 11:31am Oct 20, 2015 11:14am | Edited 11:31am
Quoting Mag357
{quote} Chart is a bit messy I can't understand what lines are what. Are those lines the classic fibonacci retracement lines? Probably I'm wrong, but didn't you highlighted only the levels where it actually bounced? in some the 61.8, in some the 78.6, in some the 50.0, in some the 161.8. I can't find all the levels for each line but maybe its just because all the mess on the chart in that case sorry.
Yeah they are a bit messy because I used a lot of fibs, yes it is the classic found in mt4, I only added 2 fib numbers I use, I used retracements both support ( low to high) and resistance ( high to low) and normal extensions found in metatrader from the retracement tool, I did not use the extension tool, if I did it would probably be even more exact, I also added 88.6 and 78.6 I could have added more numbers too that are not avalible in Mt4 but I just wanted to make a point. maybe this picture will make it a bit clearer, as you can see the fibs work as a charm, the red arrows is where you would have sold and the green arrows where you would have been buying. I probably forgot some of them too. Yes price do overshoot sometimes but not by much and most of the times the market reverse on the pip. the market is never that exact always, but I think you can't do better than this, as you can see where there is a line, the market reverse, this should be proof enough to anyone that fibonacci really do work. but however, we can't use only fibs to trade, but they a very good tool, we never know which number the market will reverse on, so that is a bit of a dilemma.​
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Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
  • #189
  • Oct 20, 2015 11:23am Oct 20, 2015 11:23am
Oops, They were serious about that chart. My Bad.

Yeah mine line up all the time too..... Even when I close my eyes and place a horizontal rule without looking. Price reacts to it. I must have a gift. I'm the man. Gonna be rich in no time.. Yeeeaaahhhhh Booooooyyyyyy. Ugggggg... I'm dying a slow death....

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SPC * Swollen PocketZ Crew!
  • #190
  • Oct 20, 2015 11:58am Oct 20, 2015 11:58am
Quoting JoeNY
Oops, They were serious about that chart. My Bad. Yeah mine line up all the time too..... Even when I close my eyes and place a horizontal rule without looking. Price reacts to it. I must have a gift. I'm the man. Gonna be rich in no time.. Yeeeaaahhhhh Booooooyyyyyy. Ugggggg... I'm dying a slow death.... {image}
It is the dust where you came from & it is the dust where you shall return
  • #191
  • Oct 20, 2015 12:44pm Oct 20, 2015 12:44pm
Hi Scott yes thank you as always ,

Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Unfortunately no. We look for fib relationships and where they occur, so your tl, demand/supply. PA(candles). Does it make sense? But a 382, can get me 886/113/1618. A 50, can get me 886/1618. A 618 can get me a 786/127/1618. A 786 can get me 127/1618. An 886 can get me a 1618. There are others, but I think we can see a shallow or deep retrace is allowed. Even for an equal move a 786 is allowed, deeper is generally a no go. We also look for symmetry. I suppose your statement is generally true in trend as bullish is 382, extreme is 236. I...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #192
  • Oct 21, 2015 4:58am Oct 21, 2015 4:58am
Quoting Incrediblle
yup market don't respect Fibonacci and i agree on that...
Let me disagree with you.
Any indicator lines, whether fib or other created for analysis. Analysis everyone has his own.
In retrospect, all indicators are working. It's just a tool. Depending on how you use it and where to apply on chart get a certain result.
If we could about any strategy, and about any indicator or line analysis tells that the market respects them, no one would have suffered losses.
At least, this is my personal opinion.
  • #193
  • Oct 21, 2015 5:37am Oct 21, 2015 5:37am
Every indicator made for the sole purpose of "Reflecting the Past" not the future!

Those who studied accountancy they know it very well that there are 3 types of Market exist

1. Weak form of efficiency
2. Semi-strong
3. Strong

Now, when it come to Weak form efficiency market, Price will randomly react based on past price movement, therefore, there is a very little chance of predicting

2nd - Semi-strong form of efficiency market will reflect "Past price movement as well as current news" therefore, predicting is Impossible, because news & all info already reflected in market price

3rd - Strong form of efficiency, It reflect all info past as well as current & even insider info that not even published yet, therefore, IMPOSSIBLE to predict

EUR/USD & most of major currency are "Strong form of efficiency market"

Therefore, NO prediction can be possible, If any one claim he/she can.... then he/she is nothing more than illiterate & fool
It is the dust where you came from & it is the dust where you shall return
  • #194
  • Oct 21, 2015 6:04am Oct 21, 2015 6:04am
This thread gets more entertaining every day.

BTW, A fib is not an indicator. It's a tool. In the right hands it works very well. Just because you smash your thumb, doesn't mean the hammer won't work perfectly for driving nails.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #195
  • Oct 21, 2015 6:12am Oct 21, 2015 6:12am
If you can get away from all the "mystical / magical " aspect of fibonacci and look at it as future projections of likely support & resistance
but based upon the most recent strong support & resistance data, then you will get areas of possible reaction by market participants.

It is not a stand alone tool to predict future, nothing can predict the future, if you think it can then stop trading.

All traders work on probabilities not certainties, if it does not help you, or you can't make sense of it, then don't use it.
Alternatively, you can make the effort and learn how to use it, it's your call.

A doctor would analyse a medical condition with a patient, based on similar symptoms from his past learnt experiences, he makes a judgement
based on the past to analyse the present condition, he will advise you of the possible future if it goes untreated.

Understand the difference & relevance of the past, present & future.

A bad workman always blames his/her tools.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #196
  • Oct 21, 2015 6:26am Oct 21, 2015 6:26am
Quoting Shabs19
If you can get away from all the "mystical / magical " aspect of fibonacci and look at it as future projections of likely support & resistance but based upon the most recent strong support & resistance data, then you will get areas of possible reaction by market participants. It is not a stand alone tool to predict future, nothing can predict the future, if you think it can then stop trading. All traders work on probabilities not certainties, if it does not help you, or you can't make sense of it, then don't use it. Alternatively, you can make the...
You have a great way of putting the simple truth in a nutshell Shabs.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #197
  • Oct 21, 2015 6:37am Oct 21, 2015 6:37am
Quoting infernal199
Every indicator made for the sole purpose of "Reflecting the Past" not the future! Those who studied accountancy they know it very well that there are 3 types of Market exist 1. Weak form of efficiency 2. Semi-strong 3. Strong Now, when it come to Weak form efficiency market, Price will randomly react based on past price movement, therefore, there is a very little chance of predicting 2nd - Semi-strong form of efficiency market will reflect "Past price movement as well as current news" therefore, predicting is Impossible, because news & all info...
Efficient market hypothesis is pure nonsense! Markets are only efficient in terms of matching buyers and sellers. But when it comes to determining the "fair" value.....there is almost zero efficiency. That's why we have things like market crashes, speculative bubbles, overreaction and underreaction to news.....and constant NOISE. A lot of noise! Everyone have different ideas and expectations in terms of fair value/price. Not to mention that the big players constantly create additional inefficiencies on the micro timeframes just because they trade huge volumes. When you see the EURUSD going up 50 pips then down 70, and up 50 again in a matter of hours, sometimes minutes ...do you really think this is efficient, or has anything to do with fundamentals!? The reality is that there is no real change in fundamental picture. It's all speculations, manipulation, greed, fear, expectations, and big players pushing the market up and down all day long! Absolutely ZERO efficiency in terms of value. And this is forex, which is supposed to be the most efficient market...... What about the stock market? Do you have ANY idea what kind of games are going on there. Starting from the lowest level (penny stock promotions and bubbles) and up to the top where business officials and top CEO's manupulate the corporate data(earninng, growth prospects......) just to pump their stock price higher.......a mean it all bullshit. This is what speculation is.
There are only three positions in the markets.
1. The people who sell the bullshit.(the corporate/ sellside)
2. The people who buy the bullshit (the "investors",and the amateur traders....)
3 The people(the pro traders/speculators) who can see the bullshit and know how to exploit it, by anticipating the actions of the other two groups.
Successful trading is the ability/skill to spot the bullshit and just ride the wave..
The people in the second group are the most important. Without this group there will be no financial markets. These people are the fish. And without fish the sharks cannot survive.
  • #198
  • Oct 21, 2015 6:40am Oct 21, 2015 6:40am
Quoting albchr
{quote} You have a great way of putting the simple truth in a nutshell Shabs.
You have a great sense of Humour
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #199
  • Oct 21, 2015 7:02am Oct 21, 2015 7:02am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} You have a great sense of Humour
Be lost without it. ... Especially in the Funny Farm with a dead market ... lol
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #200
  • Oct 21, 2015 7:10am Oct 21, 2015 7:10am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} This is what speculation is. There are only three positions in the markets. 1. The people who sell the bullshit.(the corporate/ sellside) 2. The people who buy the bullshit (the "investors",and the amateur traders....) 3 The people(the pro traders/speculators) who can see the bullshit and know how to exploit it, by anticipating the actions of the other two groups. Successful trading is the ability/skill to spot the bullshit and just ride the wave.. The people in the second group are the most important. Without this group there will be no...
You are right about the second group, and you can spot them quite easily.
It never gets easier, you just get better
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