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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #19,761
  • Oct 17, 2015 1:56am Oct 17, 2015 1:56am
Quoting SuperMario21
{quote} Thanks for your answer and for the links with your opinion. Now I understand how you think about it, but I also see that we have completely different opinion. Try to explain my opinion is not easy, and I don't want have problem with other users (I saw that here on FF the Elliotticians make wars between themselves, and this is crazy). Thanks also about the harmonic patterns. I'm trying to improve the method and make it work with EW.
Hi,

different opinion are welcome 😀

Most of the war between Elliotticans in FF stem from the fact, that often enough some people talk about the traditional Elliott wave, while others talk about bastardized versions of Elliott wave (where people have done quiet some work research), or other people talking about their own ideas of elliott wave (without delivering the research and groundwork beforehand, basing their ideas only on some limited observations). Some other people think religiously, that Price follows some IDEALIZED wave interrelationships all of the time, performing NORM moves, which in fact work some time and other times not (which makes NORM literally moot).
  • #19,762
  • Oct 17, 2015 2:10am Oct 17, 2015 2:10am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi, different opinion are welcome 😀 Most of the war between Elliotticans in FF stem from the fact, that often enough some people talk about the traditional Elliott wave, while others talk about bastardized versions of Elliott wave (where people have done quiet some work research), or other people talking about their own ideas of elliott wave (without delivering the research and groundwork beforehand, basing their ideas only on some limited observations). Some other people think religiously, that Price follows some IDEALIZED wave...
It is easy to accept other peoples opinion, when the involved parties know what they and each is talking about. If the parties communicate in a way that they are superior, or have knowledge that is hidden etc., than there will not be a straight forward communication at all.

Elliott Wave is not an exact science. It will be all the time prone to interpretation and experience. But it has a very good downwritten framework (EWP) all can work with.

If someone has other opinion or ideas, it would be easy to communicate it in a reasonable way, showing the research and observations in order to let others decide if that is a way one can go. Pity is, most people are not able to do this (or not willing). Question then is: what are we talking about?
  • #19,763
  • Oct 17, 2015 1:43pm Oct 17, 2015 1:43pm
Quoting infinitus
Something interesting for the fib fans? Here we go: EU 2-day TF when we place a fib retracement from the blue 2 to the blue 3, the following retracement from the 1.04 bottom ended at the 38.2% retracement. When we now place a fib-expansion down from the top of the blue 4, down to the 1.1087 low and up to the 1.1495 high, we get a 1.618 extension right at the very bottom around the 1.0454 low (only a few pips difference) {image}
Nice chart Infinitus. Thank you.
Just some questions..
since EW is a probability, If price break the high of the 4th wave mentioned in the chart, it can still be a 4th wave right? unless it goes higher than wave 1 (which is way up). I would like to know your experience on time and price ratio of 4th waves as to the (average to extreme) time it takes to complete 4th wave in relation to wave 3. What i have known is it takes approximately the same time as wave 3 (which is around this time minus a few days... almost 8 months).
I am trying to narrow down the probability, so if price goes higher than the current high, where can be the next resistance? if possible and when you find time, can you give me an alternate count and an invalidation point. thanks a million.
According to fib retracement, it has done exactly .382% of wave 3 (which is a common relationship for 4th wave, so a high probability that your count is spot on).
Again thanks for all the charts and the wealth of information that you share freely.
Regards
STING
  • #19,764
  • Oct 17, 2015 1:46pm Oct 17, 2015 1:46pm
NATO Wants to Expand: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

http://russia-insider.com/en/politic...-wrong/ri10570

Haters gonna hate.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #19,765
  • Oct 17, 2015 4:11pm Oct 17, 2015 4:11pm
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Nice chart Infinitus. Thank you. Just some questions.. since EW is a probability, If price break the high of the 4th wave mentioned in the chart, it can still be a 4th wave right? unless it goes higher than wave 1 (which is way up). I would like to know your experience on time and price ratio of 4th waves as to the (average to extreme) time it takes to complete 4th wave in relation to wave 3. What i have known is it takes approximately the same time as wave 3 (which is around this time minus a few days... almost 8 months). I am trying to...


Hi Stringfx,

best is to look into Swannells work in order to get an idea. When I remember right, most of the 4th waves were between 15-45% of wave 3 time-wise and price-wise. But he found also longer and shorter periods. Nevertheless the bulk of the observations was between 15-45%.

Out of my personal opinion, I feel bad for a 4th wave, when it goes higher than 50% of wave 3, or when it goes beyond the point of recognition of the 3rd wave.The point of recognition in a 3rd wave can be easily seen in the charts most of the time. It is the place, where price keeps on falling for some time without much of retracements. Normally it happens in a short period of time. This creates "no business zones", zones with low traded volume.

Often enough this no-business zones (sometimes even gaps) get later challenged by the 4th wave, but most of the time price gets rejected here.

When we compare wave 2 and wave 4, bad feelings should emerge, when wave 4 takes more than 400% the time of wave 2. That is the main reason why I get sceptical with my main count right now.

Will publish later or tomorrow an alternative count or chart with invalidation points.

Remember: an impulsive count, where wave 1 and 3 are clearly impulses, gets only invalidated, when wave 4 reaches into territory of wave 1.

But probability for the count decreases earlier: namely when wave 4 rejects more than around 50% of wave 3.
  • #19,766
  • Oct 17, 2015 4:16pm Oct 17, 2015 4:16pm
Quoting stringfx
{quote} According to fib retracement, it has done exactly .382% of wave 3 (which is a common relationship for 4th wave, so a high probability that your count is spot on).

That is the amazing thing with this count:

it has so many astonishing very good fib-ing wave inter-relationships
  • #19,767
  • Oct 19, 2015 12:05pm Oct 19, 2015 12:05pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Stringfx, best is to look into Swannells work in order to get an idea. When I remember right, most of the 4th waves were between 15-45% of wave 3 time-wise and price-wise. But he found also longer and shorter periods. Nevertheless the bulk of the observations was between 15-45%. Out of my personal opinion, I feel bad for a 4th wave, when it goes higher than 50% of wave 3, or when it goes beyond the point of recognition of the 3rd wave.The point of recognition in a 3rd wave can be easily seen in the charts most of the time. It is the place,...
Dear Infinitus,
thanks for the information. I will try to look up swannell. What i meant earlier was regarding time/price ratio was in respect to complex corrections only like the one we are facing now.(sorry didn't specify earlier). you are absolutely right about the simple ones.
STING
  • #19,768
  • Oct 19, 2015 12:20pm Oct 19, 2015 12:20pm
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Dear Infinitus, thanks for the information. I will try to look up swannell. What i meant earlier was regarding time/price ratio was in respect to complex corrections only like the one we are facing now.(sorry didn't specify earlier). you are absolutely right about the simple ones.

Hi StringFx,

I think it does not matter if the correction is simple or complex. Longer lasting corrections tend to trace out complex pattern.

But in the context of an impulsive wave, the wave 4 should adhere to the time/price limitations we have talked about, regardless if complex or simple pattern.


Does it get clearer with this?
  • #19,769
  • Oct 19, 2015 3:47pm Oct 19, 2015 3:47pm
http://beta.elliottwave.com/Assets/F...ets-for-1-Week
  • #19,770
  • Edited 6:35pm Oct 19, 2015 6:08pm | Edited 6:35pm
not can understand some people on FF make a party so big because the price was making the PP lost the last week... is what caled NORM? lololol
  • #19,771
  • Oct 19, 2015 8:50pm Oct 19, 2015 8:50pm
Quoting chess king
not can understand some people on FF make a party so big because the price was making the PP lost the last week... is what called NORM? lololol



I put the cry-baby/gobshite once and for all to ignore. The idiot I am I heavily defended the troll years ago when Mercy _Seat abused him permanently. Later on he started licking the boots of his Master (Mercy_Seat) again and turned against me.

I think the abuse of alcohol finally takes the toll on.........


BTW:

1303 is the 21-EMA on daily
1307 was also a Murrey Math target on shorter TF
1300 is the 50% retracement from the 1105 and 1495 wave up
simply look to the left side of chart to see horizontal support at this level

plus

the gobshite does not recognize that I repeatedly said, that his levels sometimes/often work very well, while at other times they fail spectacularly. But he chose to only brag about the functioning ones. NORM is to not to talk about the failed levels.

But to each his/her own.


R.I.P.


Best to you from beautiful Switzerland (Cabane de Valsorey / Grand Combin)
  • #19,772
  • Oct 19, 2015 11:50pm Oct 19, 2015 11:50pm
Quoting andexQ
USD got hard pressure from commodity market & commodity currency. In general, strong resistance in commodity market was broken today... this event will make further weakness on USD in coming days.

At that day strong resistance in commodity market was broken to the Upside,

but yesterday this strong resistance which became support was broken again ... to the Downside.

Look like USD is on steroids now.
  • #19,773
  • Oct 19, 2015 11:56pm Oct 19, 2015 11:56pm
ermm, what happened.. ?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: `5.jpg Size: 27 KB
  • #19,774
  • Oct 20, 2015 12:25am Oct 20, 2015 12:25am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi StringFx, I think it does not matter if the correction is simple or complex. Longer lasting corrections tend to trace out complex pattern. But in the context of an impulsive wave, the wave 4 should adhere to the time/price limitations we have talked about, regardless if complex or simple pattern. Does it get clearer with this?
Yes it is a lot clearer now... thanks buddy.
STING
  • #19,775
  • Oct 20, 2015 2:03am Oct 20, 2015 2:03am
Quoting andexQ
ermm, what happened.. ? {image}
Drama-Queen -that is all

I have not counted how often he promised to not come back and begged Twee to close the thread...........
  • #19,776
  • Oct 20, 2015 8:01am Oct 20, 2015 8:01am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} At that day strong resistance in commodity market was broken to the Upside, but yesterday this strong resistance which became support was broken again ... to the Downside. Look like USD is on steroids now.
Sorry, my mistake..

I was talking about Daily chart so i should say 'in coming days' not 'now' .... the breakout must be tested first.
  • #19,777
  • Oct 20, 2015 10:36am Oct 20, 2015 10:36am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I put the cry-baby/gobshite once and for all to ignore. The idiot I am I heavily defended the troll years ago when Mercy _Seat abused him permanently. Later on he started licking the boots of his Master (Mercy_Seat) again and turned against me. I think the abuse of alcohol finally takes the toll on......... BTW: 1303 is the 21-EMA on daily 1307 was also a Murrey Math target on shorter TF 1300 is the 50% retracement from the 1105 and 1495 wave up simply look to the left side of chart to see horizontal support at this level...
enjoy and have fun....
I have to choose the most difficult puzzles
  • #19,778
  • Oct 20, 2015 11:31am Oct 20, 2015 11:31am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} Sorry, my mistake.. I was talking about Daily chart so i should say 'in coming days' not 'now' .... the breakout must be tested first.
I knew that you meant intermediate term
  • #19,779
  • Oct 20, 2015 11:35am Oct 20, 2015 11:35am
Ooops!!! I GOT sanctioned by one of EU country member
  • #19,780
  • Oct 20, 2015 11:39am Oct 20, 2015 11:39am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Drama-Queen -that is all I have not counted how often he promised to not come back and begged Twee to close the thread...........
What a Drama, my friend !

Have I missed much ???!

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
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