Elliottwave-Forecast.com - Official Thread w/ Analysis Blogs

$IWM Russell 2000 tracking ETF

We have seen a sharp sell off in the Russell 200 Index since the 23rd of June, 2015 however think it is a corrective double three decline from the 129.13 high down to the 108.26 lows of August 24th . We think this is most likely a wxy structure and part of a larger degree decline. Since the 24th of August the instrument appears to have completed a flat wave ((W)) at 115.98 on the 31st, then a double three wave ((X)) at 111.60 on the 1st of September.

While price remains above there we would expect a couple more swings higher in ((Y)) of x toward the 50%-.618 fib zone at 118.69-121.15 with the equal legs 1.236 extension of ((W))-((X)) coming in at 119.37-121.21. Afterwards of completion of the wave ((Y)) of x and a resumption of the larger correction lower we will be able to get an equal legs-1.236 extension area for a potential new swing buy zone opportunity.



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GBPAUD Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – September 16, 2015

Revised short term Elliottwave suggests the decline from wave ((X)) at 2.21 is unfolding in a triple three structure WXYZ where wave W ended at 2.167, wave X ended at 2.193, wave Y ended at 2.151, second wave X ended at 2.17, and wave Z lower is in progress and can reach as low as 2.116 – 2.127 to finish wave (W) before a larger bounce in wave (X). Near term, the pair can bounce in wave ((x)) towards 2.158 – 2.161 before turning lower again. As far as 2.21 pivot stays intact during the bounce, expect the pair to resume the lower to complete wave (W).



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GBPAUD Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – September 18, 2015

Short term Elliottwave view suggests the decline from wave ((X)) at 2.21 unfolded in a triple three structure WXYZ where wave W ended at 2.167, wave X ended at 2.193, wave Y ended at 2.151, second wave X ended at 2.17, and wave Z of (W) ended at 2.135. Wave (X) bounce is currently in progress as a double corrective structure WXY where wave W ended at 2.175, wave X ended at 2.146, and wave Y is in progress towards 2.186 – 2.195 to complete wave (X) before the decline resumes. As far as 2.21 pivot stays intact during the wave (X) bounce, expect the pair to fail below the level and resume the decline lower. We don’t like selling the proposed push lower.



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EURUSD: wave X connector - Double Three Pattern

Wave X connector might take form of any corrective structure: Zig-Zag, Flat, Double Three, Triple Three, Triangle, etc.

As EWF clients already know, Double three is one of the most common patterns in the Market nowadays. Its labeled as WXY and wave subdivision is 3, 3, 3, which means all of these 3 waves are corrective sequences.

In this blog were going to take quick look at EURUSD Elliott Wave analysis from 9.16.2015 to see what WXY - Double three pattern looks like.

$EURUSD London Update 9.16.2015 As Elliott Wave analysis suggests, Wave X connector is taking the form of double three pattern. Inner structure is marked as ((w)), ((x)), ((y)) black and each of these 3 waves is subdivided into (w), (x), (y) blue structure. The pair needs another marginal push lower toward equal legs-1.236 fib extension area (1.1234-1.1211) to complete wave X connector there. Once wave X is done, further rally is expected toward new highs- Wave Y.



$EURUSD New York Update 9.18.2015 A few days after, we can see 230 pips rally. The pair completed X connector at equal legs-1.236 fib ext area: 1.1234-1.1211 and it produce nice rally in wave Y as expected. Note: some labels have been removed to protect clients privileges.



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USDCAD Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – September 24, 2015

Current best reading of the Elliottwave cycle suggests wave ((W)) ended at 1.3353. Decline from this level ended at 1.3 as wave ((X)). The rally higher from 1.3 is unfolding as a double three structure ((w))-((x))-((y)) where wave ((w)) ended at 1.33, wave ((x)) ended at 1.317, and wave ((y)) is in progress towards 1.338 – 1.34 to complete wave W. Once wave W is confirmed complete, the pair is expected to pullback in wave X in 3, 7, or 11 swing ideally towards 50 – 61.8% retracement from 1.3 before the rally resumes. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback in wave X. As far as pivot at 1.3 stays intact during wave X pullback, we expect buyers to come and the pair to rally to new high.



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RUT Russell 2000 Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – September 30, 2015

Best reading of the cycle suggests that the decline to 1105.9 ended wave ((W)). From this level, the index bounced and ended wave ((X)) at 1193.85. The index has since resumed the decline lower, unfolding in a double corrective structure WXY where wave W ended at 1124.75, wave X ended at 1146.72, and wave Y is in progress towards 1060.71 – 1077.14 to complete wave (W). Once wave (W) is complete, the index can see a larger bounce in wave (X) to correct the decline from 1193.85. As far as wave (X) bounce fails below 1193.85, expect the index to continue lower again afterwards. We don’t like buying any proposed bounce in the chart and expect the index to continue the decline lower as far as 1193.86 pivot stays intact.



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RUT Russell 2000 Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – October 02, 2015

Best reading of the cycle suggests the decline to 1105.9 ended wave ((W)), then the index bounced in wave ((X)) to 1193.85. From this level, the index has resumed the decline lower with the first leg of the decline wave (W) completed at 1078.63. Wave (X) bounce is currently in progress in 3, 7, or 11 swing. Most aggressive view suggests wave (X) bounce is unfolding as a double corrective structure WXY where wave W ended at 1103.7, wave X ended at 1083.9, and wave Y is in progress towards 1108.28 – 1114.17 to complete wave (X). From this area, the decline can resume either to new low or at least 3 waves reaction lower. Although wave (X) bounce can further extend in 7 or 11 swing, as far as 1193.85 pivot stays intact, expect the index to continue the decline lower once wave (X) is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing. We don’t like buying the proposed wave (X) bounce.



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GBPCAD Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – October 07, 2015

Best reading of the cycle suggests that rally to 2.057 ended wave X. From this level, the pair resumed the decline in wave ((w)) as a double three structure wxy where wave w ended at 2.0168, wave x ended at 2.04, and wave y of ((w)) completed at 1.98. Wave ((x)) bounce is currently in progress to correct the decline from 2.04. Internal of this bounce suggests a double three structure (w)-(x)-(y) where wave (w) ended at 1.992, wave (x) ended at 1.983, and wave (y) of ((x)) is in progress towards 1.995 – 1.998 equal leg area before the decline resumes either to new low or at least in 3 waves pullback. We don’t like buying the proposed bounce in wave ((x)). As far as 2.04 pivot stays intact during the bounce, expect the pair to resume the decline again to new low.



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EURCAD Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – October 14, 2015

Best reading of the cycle in the short term suggests decline to 1.454 ended wave ((w)). Wave ((x)) bounce is unfolding as a double three structure where wave (w) ended at 1.476, wave (x) ended at 1.461, and wave (y) of ((x)) is proposed complete at 1.49. While below 1.49, or more importantly as far as pivot at 1.516 stays intact, the pair is expected to resume the decline lower. A break above 1.49 from current level suggests a triple three structure from 1.454 and opens extension higher towards 1.495 – 1.5 area before the pair turns lower either in 3 waves pullback or new low.



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EURCAD Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – October 16, 2015

Best reading of the cycle in the short term suggests decline to 1.454 ended wave ((w)). Wave ((x)) bounce is unfolding as a double three structure where wave (w) ended at 1.476, wave (x) ended at 1.461, and wave (y) of ((x)) is proposed complete at 1.49. Near term, wave (w) low is proposed complete at 1.46 as a FLAT, and wave (x) bounce is in progress towards 1.475 – 1.478 area before turning lower. While wave (x) bounce fails below 1.49, or more importantly as far as pivot at 1.516 stays intact, the pair is expected to resume the decline lower. We don’t like buying the proposed wave (x) bounce.



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GBPAUD Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – October 20, 2015

Short term Elliott wave view suggests decline to 2.078 ended wave W. From this level, pair is rallying higher in wave ((W)) in double three structure where wave (W) ended at 2.13, wave (X) ended at 2.102, and wave (Y) of ((W)) is in progress towards 2.155 – 2.167 equal leg area before turning lower. Near term, while above wave (X) low at 2.102, but more importantly as far as 2.078 pivot stays intact, expect the pair to continue higher towards 2.155 – 2.167 area before turning lower.



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The market, golden ratio, and the sequence

Nature is the biggest enigma, that we as Human always try to decode. For Centuries, we have been trying to understand everything and find out many secrets around the Universe. We have come very far from living in caves to being able to travel to the moon. The reality is that Nature is a divine creation and consequently there are many secrets which we have not been able to see or maybe will never be able to decode. The Golden ratio is a special number found by dividing a line into two parts so that the longer part divided by the smaller part is also equal to the whole length divided by the longer part. It is often symbolized using phi, after the 21st letter of the Greek alphabet. In an equation form, it looks like this:
a/b = (a+b)/a = 1.6180339887498948420

This divine Math relationship is seen every day in the Markets and many traders need to understand the way the Nature is working in the Market. We have seen many times that retracements end at the 61.8% and start a new cycle. Also, we have seen many times how a wave 3 ends at the 1.618 extension of wave 1-2 relationship. We always preach to understand that the Market moves based on Math and the relationship between the 61.8-1.618 and how subdivisions of the Gold ration move the Market and dictate the cycles in Price and Time. Subs of the Golden Ratio are 23.6-38.2-50.0-76.4 in the Retracements and 0.618-1.00-1.236 and 1.618 also rule the extensions .This dynamic have been trading for years and the same way it rules the Nature, also rules the Market. Many traders try to trade using the Indicators provided by third party entities like Brokers and Trading Platforms which have nothing to do with the divine nature of the Universe and end up losing money. On the other hand, using the divine sequence and consequently the Golden ratio, traders will have a more divine and logical way to make money. Our Human body is a perfect example of the Golden ratio and even when not everyone is the same height, the ratios are in general the same as shown in the figure below.

The Enigma will stay forever and we will never find out why mother Nature is so divine, but we can’t fight it and try to change it, so to succeed in trading, we need to follow the divine rules and follow the Math behind it. The Elliott wave Principal was discovery almost 100 years ago but, the divine nature cannot be denied behind the relationship of the waves. Like always a human being is able to see the relationship of the Golden ratio and the natural patterns the Market follows.

In Elliottwave –Forecast, we have always been looking for ways to improve the Principal and we study for years the relationship between the Math and waves. The market respects time after time the retracements and extensions in every cycle not only in price but also in times. The golden ratio rule the market and dictates the market moves knowing how to mix the cycles and the time periods will make a trader successful something that we have developed in Elliottwave-Forecast.



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Time, Price and Distribution

Traders, usually, have been told that Price is the most important aspect of the trading dynamic. We have been told to look at the charts all day and follow every swing the Market does, sometimes even dropping down to the 1 minute chart and using a range of indicators to try and decode the price action. The reality is that Price is the less important part of trading. Most wavers use the Elliott wave Principal to only look at price and consequently the Theory, which is a great discovery, finds itself subjective and always presenting more than 1 paths. The reality is that, we at Elliottwave-Forecast, are always trying to find ways to determine the path that makes more sense and the path which is supported not only through Elliottwave Theory, but also with some new aspect of trading. We have developed what we called the Distribution of the Market. The PRICE is always moving in the Market, but not always moves the same ways and neither at the same speed or with the same distribution. An instrument can move 100 points at 2 different occasions and even though it moved the same distance in price at both occasions, the effect of the move on the cycles and hence the market could be different on both occasions. We have gathered a series of tools which were not available in 1930’s when the Theory was discovered. We developed a math system in the Market based in the speed against the time and that shows when cycles end in different time frames. Then it come the Time aspect of the Market, In Elliott wave Theory, corrections should be comparable in time. Usually ,we see wave 2 lasting same amount of time as wave 4 or we see a wave X in a WXY lasting the same amount of time as that of a wave X in a lesser degree. We at Elliottwave-Forecast combine and look at every aspect of the trading and we draw the ideas based more in Time and Distributions than price or Elliott wave sequences.

The chart below shows how the EURUSD from the peak in 2008, shows 4 major corrections against the bearish cycle and see how each corrections in time was comparable to the other, lasting more or less the same amount of time. We knew in early April 2015, that the cycle from peak of correction 3 ended and the price will be supported because of the time factor. That meant price would go higher or stay sideways spending more time in the correction if pair were to make another low. Either way, we think correction 4 or new cycle ideally would need around 50 weeks and the price should remain sideways supported until then.



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GBPAUD Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – October 22, 2015

Short term Elliott wave view suggests decline to 2.078 ended wave W. From this level, pair is rallying higher in wave ((W)) in double three structure where wave (W) ended at 2.13, wave (X) ended at 2.102, and wave (Y) of ((W)) is in progress towards 2.155 – 2.167 equal leg area before turning lower. Near term, wave ((x)) pullback is in progress towards 2.13 – 2.1325 area before turning higher towards 2.155 – 2.167 to complete wave ((W)). While wave ((x)) pullback stays above wave (X) low at 2.102, but more importantly as far as 2.078 pivot stays intact, expect the pair to continue higher towards 2.155 – 2.167 area before turning lower. We don’t like selling the proposed wave ((x)) pullback.



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$GBPAUD: Elliott Waves Forecasting the decline

At the beginning of September our Elliott Wave analysis of $GBPAUD suggested that we were still in large correction from the 2.24059 high. The pair was doing correction ((x)) against the mentioned high and our Elliott Wave analysis was calling for futher decline once it’s done.

Let’s take a look at H1 Elliott Wave charts from the 01. September 2015 to see how we were guiding our members through the $GBPAUD price structure.

$GBPAUD 09.01.2015 London Update Elliott wave analysis suggests we’re still in wave (Y) of ((X)) recovery. The pair is calling for more strength toward 50-76.4 fibonacci retracment area to complete ((X)) recovery against the 2.24059 high




$GBPAUD 9.8.2015 NY Update We got rally in wave (Y) of ((X)), as expected. 61.8-76.4 fibonacci area is reached at 2.20207-2.21675 and we got nice reaction lower from there. Our system suggests wave ((X)) is done at 2.2109, and while the price holds below that short term high, further decline should follow.



$GBPAUD 9.9.2015 Asia Update The pair is pushing lower nicely as expected…



$GBPAUD 9.12.2015 Weekend Update The price retested the ((X)) high and dropped again. Next important technical area comes lower at 2.1493-2.12239 from where we might see short term recovery before the decline resumes.



$GBPAUD 9.18.2015 Asia Update The decline from the 2.21124 high took the form of triple three structure and completed at short term tech area @ 2.13833-2.13342. Current view suggests the price is still in wave (X) recovery which could extend toward marked area 2.18995-2.19557 (potential reversal zon) . Once (X) is done further decline should follow toward new lows.



$GBPAUD 9.24.2015 New York Midday Update The pair slightly exceeded 1.236 fib ext and turned lower. Current view suggests (X) is done at 2.2009 and while that high holds more weakness is expected toward new lows…



$GBPAUD 9.29.2015 Asia Update The price is about to complete wave (x) bounce at 2.1829 area. Current Elliott Wave analsysis suggests more downside in wave (y) of W toward 2.14325-2.13425 area .



$GBPAUD 10.1.2015 New Yord Update Short term recovery ended at 2.1863 and we got decline as expected. Mentioned equal legs area is reached and X bounce is currently in progress…





$GBPAUD 10.9.2015 New York Update X recovery ended right at equal legs area : 2.16972-1.17486 and decline resumed as Elliott Wave analysis suggested.

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$EURAUD: Elliott Wave Flat structure

In this technical blog we’re going to explain what Elliott Wave Flat Pattern should look like.

Flat pattern is corrective structure which could be often seen in the market nowadays.There are 3 types of Flats: Regular, Expanded and Running flat. In this technical blog we’re going to run through the Regular flat example.

At the graphic below, we can see what Regular Flat structure looks like. Inner subdivision is always labeled as A,B,C and it has 3,3,5 structure. That means waves A and B are corrective structures, while wave C is 5 wave impulsive or ending diagonal pattern. Wave B of regular Flat is deep retracement and it should complete above the start point of wave A. Wave C should complete above the ending point of wave A .



Now, let’s take a look at some real example in $EURAUD

$EURAUD 10.22.2015 Asia Update: As our Elliott Wave chart suggests, the pair is bearish against the 1.58253 high. Wave (w) blue ended at 1.5492 and wave (x) is still in progress as flat structure. Inner structure of (x) recovery is labeled as a,b,c red, where a wave and b wave are corrective structures and wave c is ending diagonal (5wave structure).

1. Wave a starts from 1.5492 and ends at 1.5707 high.
2. Wave b starts from 1.5707 high and ends at 1.5501 as deep correction.
3. Wave c starts from 1.5501 and it’s still in progress.

The chart is showing we need another marginal push up to complete the structure and decline takes place. While below 1.58253 further decline should be seen toward new lows.

$EURAUD 10.23.2015 Asia Update: 1.58253 high held nicely and wave (x) completed at 1.5792 as flat structure. We got nice decline below the (w) low as expected…



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EURAUD Short Term Elliott Wave Analysis 10.27.2015

Best reading of Elliott wave cycle suggests decline to 1.545 ended wave “A” and bounce to 1.582 ended wave “B”. Wave “C” is in progress as 5 waves where wave ((i)) ended at 1.549, wave ((ii)) ended at 1.579, wave ((iii)) ended at 1.516, and wave ((iv)) is in progress towards 1.53 – 1.539 area before turning lower in wave ((v)). We don’t like buying the proposed bounce in wave ((iv)). As far as 1.5824 pivot stays intact, pair is expected to go lower one more leg to complete wave ((v)) of C.



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EURAUD Short Term Elliott Wave Update 10.28.2015

Revised short term Elliott wave view suggests decline to 1.515 ended wave (X)) and pair has resumed the rally. Wave ((w)) is unfolding in a double three structure where wave (w) ended at 1.5378, wave (x) ended at 1.532, and wave (y) is in progress towards 1.5532 – 1.5582 before a 3 waves pullback. Near term, pair is expected to pullback in wave b ideally towards 1.539 – 1.541 area before higher again. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback. As far as 1.5165 pivot stays intact, pair is expected to continue higher near term towards 1.553 – 1.558 to complete wave ((w)).



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EURCAD Short Term Elliott Wave Analysis 10.29.2015

Short term Elliott Wave view suggests decline to 1.4439 ended wave (w) and bounce to 1.4668 ended wave (x) as a FLAT. Pair has since resumed in wave (y) lower with the internals unfolding as a zigzag. The first leg of the decline wave (a) is in progress as 5 waves. From 1.4668 high, the decline so far looks to be in 3 waves and thus after wave iv bounce is complete around 1.445 – 1.447 area, pair has a chance to do another swing lower in wave v towards 1.43 area to complete wave (a). Once wave (a) is complete, pair is expected to bounce in wave (b) to correct the decline from 1.4668 before the next leg lower in wave (c). We don’t like buying the proposed bounce in wave (b). As far as 1.4668 pivot stays intact during wave (b) bounce, expect the pair to resume the decline to new low in wave (c) of (y).



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$DAX: Elliott Wave Zig Zag Pattern

Zig-Zag is the most famous corrective pattern in Elliott Wave Theory, but in reality we don’t see it very often. These days we could see very nice zig zag pattern that forming in DAX h1 chart. Before we take a look at real example we will explain the Elliott Wave pattern first.

Zig zag iz 3 wave corrective Elliott Wave pattern that contains 5-3-5 inner structure. It’s labeled as A,B,C where A =5 waves, B=3 waves and C=5 waves. That means A and C are impulsive or diagonal patterns and they must meet all conditions of being 5 wave structures such as: having RSI divergency between wave subdivisions, ideal Fibonacci extensions, retracements and so on…

On the picture below we see what bearish Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern looks like: clear 3 wave ABC form, with 5,3,5 inner structure…



Now let’s take a look at real market example of $DAX:

$DAX 10.282.2015 NY Update: Zig Zag Pattern is in forming, currently we’re in wave 5 red of (C) blue which is expected to give us more strength to complete the pattern. We could see wave (A) ended at 10114.7 as leading diagonal structure. Wave (B) pull back completed right at 38.2 fib retracement level at 9886.9 and from there the price is forming clear impulsive 5 wave structure, where each of 5 waves contains 5 waves subdivision. Wave 4 red is done at 10695.2 and while the price holds above that level, we should ideally see another 5 wave rally toward 9886.9+ area to complete zig zag pattern.



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