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Fibonacci Indicator? Is it a big Joke?

  • #161
  • Oct 19, 2015 4:27am Oct 19, 2015 4:27am
Quoting albchr
{quote} LOL .. ok Yes, they were just a "few" of the latest examples. My thread is quite a few years old and contains many more. But having been here long enough I know that nobody would actually dig back to see them. But if you (or anyone) were to, you'd see I don't "cherry pick" anything. All trades posted in real time, live, from start to finish win, lose or draw. What I find interesting though is that many have come here to show "results" that fibs add value in trading. Those who claim they don't have provided no "proof" of their...
Hmm I read few pages of your thread and seems you posted mainly trades already in profit and protected by breakeven stop (maybe its just those pages). I dont have a valid reason to think that you can not make money in the market, but maybe is not because of fibonacci lines but there are other skills and techniques that you use for making the right decision and win. When I tried fibonacci retracement some time ago it seemed to me that those lines were respected randomly, sometimes one of them did, sometimes not.
  • #162
  • Oct 19, 2015 4:39am Oct 19, 2015 4:39am
Quoting verv
{quote} I just don't believe fibs by itself adds any value whatsoever.
When you use fibs, (if drawn properly in the first place), and adds evidence to support/ resistance or supply/demand zones
then you have more reasons to enter the market.

The problem lies in the fact that drawing fibs, support /resistance and supply & demand can be very subjective. I can understand that.
I have been there, to me if there is no logic behind it, I would also have trouble with it.

What you need to do however, is learn how to use these tools. Learn from people who have great success from these tools
and try to replicate what they are doing. Always have an open mind.

There is a lot of good & bad info out there, you have to be prepared to do the work I am afraid - can you do that ?
What you need are clear defined rules of how & when to use these tools. This takes time & trial.

If you can see a "trading map" ahead of time on your chart would that not help you ?
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #163
  • Oct 19, 2015 4:48am Oct 19, 2015 4:48am
excuse me! which fib isn't working?
I could do that on "any" place on any chart,
fibs are not a joke! the market always reverse on a fib number,
just check it for your self
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Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
  • #164
  • Oct 19, 2015 4:55am Oct 19, 2015 4:55am
Quoting Mag357
{quote} Hmm I read few pages of your thread and seems you posted mainly trades already in profit and protected by breakeven stop (maybe its just those pages). I dont have a valid reason to think that you can not make money in the market, but maybe is not because of fibonacci lines but there are other skills that you have that make you take the right decision and win. When I tried fibonacci retracement some time ago it seemed to me that those lines were respected randomly, sometimes one of them did, sometimes not.
Exactly (:

It's not the magic levels that are important but how one manages the trade...
I could decide to follow the cockroaches going up and down my wall as signals to trade the euro and the result (good or bad) would be the same as using Fibonacci (or any TA methodology)
  • #165
  • Oct 19, 2015 5:02am Oct 19, 2015 5:02am
Quoting roughtrader
excuse me! which fib isn't working? I could do that on "any" place on any chart, fibs are not a joke! the market always reverse on a fib number, just check it for your self {image}
Chart is a bit messy I can't understand what lines are what. Are those lines the classic fibonacci retracement lines? Probably I'm wrong, but didn't you highlighted only the levels where it actually bounced? in some the 61.8, in some the 78.6, in some the 50.0, in some the 161.8. I can't find all the levels for each line but maybe its just because all the mess on the chart in that case sorry.
  • #166
  • Oct 19, 2015 5:18am Oct 19, 2015 5:18am
Quoting Mag357
{quote} Hmm I read few pages of your thread and seems you posted mainly trades already in profit and protected by breakeven stop (maybe its just those pages). I dont have a valid reason to think that you can not make money in the market, but maybe is not because of fibonacci lines but there are other skills and techniques that you use for making the right decision and win. When I tried fibonacci retracement some time ago it seemed to me that those lines were respected randomly, sometimes one of them did, sometimes not.
Hi mag

You make a couple very good points here. First, yes I put my trading above my posting so once I enter a trade I "babysit" it until covered and safe. #1 rule in trading? Protect your account. Usually (not always), that happens too quickly these days to post before moving SL to cost+. <<--- (that's the reason for fibs to me. Tight entries with little DD and getting covered quickly). Once that's done my work is over. It either pays nicely or only cost+. But I lose nothing in the attempt.

But if you look, you'll see the targets for entry were posted before taking the trade and I wait until/if it gets there and then enter if price structure supports doing so. As shabs said above, having a "trading map" (commonly known as a trade plan) ahead of time is key. "If you fail to plan, you plan to fail" (not sure who said that first but it's 100% true)

Next, you are also 100% correct about "other skills and techniques". No single tool by itself will EVER be all you need to trade the market successfully. But the topic of this thread is fibs so that's what I'm taking about here. I use a variety of things learned over the years to make the decision to expose my money to risk. Fibs simply help me determine three things. Levels to pay attention to, A tight as possible entry and potential targets for the trade. After all, getting in and covered is only half the battle. After that having a good idea of what can be reasonably expected TP's is the other half.

The simple fact is my thread is my trading journal started back when I first heard of Forex. A newbie like so many others and I didn't have a clue. I have used that journal for my own education and to that end, I can't see how posting just winners or cherry picking trades to post would be any help to my learning. It's a record that I routinely went back over on the weekends (not so much anymore but still do) to see what I did, why I did it and how it turned out. As you can see it's taken many years for me to learn how to trade. My thread is an accurate record of that journey. The good, the bad and the ugly! ... lol

Truth is, I'm still learning and anyone who isn't "probably" won't be successful in the long run. I will always remain open to refining my approach.

Best wishes to all those on their own personal journeys.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #167
  • Oct 19, 2015 6:03am Oct 19, 2015 6:03am
You missed the sarcasm in the post. It was brilliant by the way.

Quoting Mag357
{quote} Chart is a bit messy I can't understand what lines are what. Are those lines the classic fibonacci retracement lines? Probably I'm wrong, but didn't you highlighted only the levels where it actually bounced? in some the 61.8, in some the 78.6, in some the 50.0, in some the 161.8. I can't find all the levels for each line but maybe its just because all the mess on the chart in that case sorry.
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  • #168
  • Oct 19, 2015 6:10am Oct 19, 2015 6:10am
Quoting roughtrader
excuse me! which fib isn't working? I could do that on "any" place on any chart, fibs are not a joke! the market always reverse on a fib number, just check it for your self {image}
My ques is: On which Chart (M1 to H4) Fib will work best? I mean more reliable?
It is the dust where you came from & it is the dust where you shall return
  • #169
  • Oct 19, 2015 6:23am Oct 19, 2015 6:23am
Quoting JoeNY
You missed the sarcasm in the post. It was brilliant by the way. {quote}
Oh was that sarcasm? LOL I missed it. :nerd:
In that case I agree with him. Trow some lines on a chart and many of them will fit the price.
  • #170
  • Oct 19, 2015 6:24am Oct 19, 2015 6:24am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} When you use fibs, (if drawn properly in the first place), and adds evidence to support/ resistance or supply/demand zones then you have more reasons to enter the market. The problem lies in the fact that drawing fibs, support /resistance and supply & demand can be very subjective. I can understand that. I have been there, to me if there is no logic behind it, I would also have trouble with it. What you need to do however, is learn how to use these tools. Learn from people who have great success from these tools and try to replicate what...
Hello,

Yes the problem is indeed ''The problem lies in the fact that drawing fibs, support /resistance and supply & demand can be very subjective.'' and you can add more subjectivity to that because there is the 23, the 38, the 50, the 68 and 100 levels which you can fade from.

What makes the fibs seem to work is that the levels are so tight that price will always get close to one of the lower levels and turn.

If someone said to me, I trade the 61% level using the previously daily highs and lows as a guide then you have something which can be replicated and tested. For the record I tested something like this, you can make money with any reasonably method provided it follows the trend. The trend is why it would work, not the fibs levels. Entry really doesn't matter.

Anyway, just my opinion, informed by manual testing and application of statistics. Contributing here is like competing in the special Olympics, but this forum is like crack cocaine, once you start posting you get sucked in. I know that 99% of the traders here don't make money. I'm sure this forum, and the gurus on here inhibit trading progress.

I don't believe anyone system works for all time, in all market conditions. What does seem to work is trading with the prevailing trend, and it helps if you have a fundamental conviction about the direction that can be backed up by a reasonable argument.
  • #171
  • Oct 19, 2015 6:35am Oct 19, 2015 6:35am
I do not think of fibonacci or any other TA tool as "magical", this implies that you do not understand what it is or how to use it.

Markets are motivated by Fear & Greed.

Get away from this "magical, mystical " nonsense. Forex is a market, and like all markets there are human traders present, who will
make decisions on their own or others emotions when to enter/exit the market.

Fibonacci is just a tool for me, to map out entry, stoploss & profit target ahead of time, that has a greater probability of success,
because it has been tested over time to work more times than not. It provides for me an edge and that's enough.

I don't think of these lines as an exact price to the pip point, as I have said before, not everyones chart has the exact same prices, this is
why the levels need to be a little "fuzzy", similar to how S&R lines will not be the same also.

If it doesn't make sense to you that's fine, But not researching or doing the work then that's sad.

@verv. Last 2 paragraphs

Quoting infernal199
{quote} My ques is: On which Chart (M1 to H4) Fib will work best? I mean more reliable?
Markets are fractal by nature, so should work on any timeframe.

The choice of TF depends on your own personal trading timeframe, Higher TF's always have precedence over the smaller TF's.

Choose a TF that suits your personality, then look at fibs from a higher TF, look at past history, find a "personality" in that pair.
Look at major swings in the direction of the HTF prevailing trend.

Make a trading plan, Buy /Sell on the 50-61% retracement and exit at 100, 127,161% this depends on your view of your chart.
Stoploss choice will depend again on your stats for that pair.
So you missed the entry because it retraced only to 23.6 and left you behind ?
Do you ditch the strategy because it didn't work this time ?
Move on to the next Opportunity.

What also helps is if you have further evidence / confluence of signals, at a major support/resistance, time of day, major movement due to news. etc.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #172
  • Oct 19, 2015 7:20am Oct 19, 2015 7:20am
As a newbie to Forex how do you professional traders use fibo?
  • #173
  • Oct 19, 2015 7:56am Oct 19, 2015 7:56am
Professional traders?????

Quoting Yazd
As a newbie to Forex how do you professional traders use fibo?
SPC * Swollen PocketZ Crew!
  • #174
  • Oct 19, 2015 1:45pm Oct 19, 2015 1:45pm
ok assuming we can break the 23.6
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Click to Enlarge Name: USD (DFB).png Size: 29 KB
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  • #175
  • Oct 19, 2015 1:55pm Oct 19, 2015 1:55pm
LOL Bones.... It was so quiet here. You just had to do it...

Inserted Video


Quoting Bones
ok assuming we can break the 23.6 {image}
SPC * Swollen PocketZ Crew!
  • #176
  • Oct 19, 2015 2:06pm Oct 19, 2015 2:06pm
i believe that Fibo levels work as a potential price target so they are good for setting your take profit when used for extension determination and possible retracement zones as your stop out levels, of course it isn't accurate all the time but it's a powerful tool in the right hands in combination with price action strategy perhaps.
  • #177
  • Oct 19, 2015 2:09pm Oct 19, 2015 2:09pm
Stott without talking patterns (you know I can't see) to help me understand ,can you say id be right in saying the deeper the retrace of a wave the less its assumed it can go ?


Quoting Mr. Scott
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  • #178
  • Oct 19, 2015 2:11pm Oct 19, 2015 2:11pm

Quoting JoeNY
LOL Bones.... It was so quiet here. You just had to do it... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CsbYx6hevoQ {quote}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #179
  • Oct 19, 2015 9:59pm Oct 19, 2015 9:59pm
Quoting Bones
Stott without talking patterns (you know I can't see) to help me understand ,can you say id be right in saying the deeper the retrace of a wave the less its assumed it can go ? {quote}
Unfortunately no. We look for fib relationships and where they occur, so your tl, demand/supply. PA(candles). Does it make sense?

But a 382, can get me 886/113/1618.

A 50, can get me 886/1618.

A 618 can get me a 786/127/1618.

A 786 can get me 127/1618.

An 886 can get me a 1618. There are others, but I think we can see a shallow or deep retrace is allowed.

Even for an equal move a 786 is allowed, deeper is generally a no go.

We also look for symmetry.

I suppose your statement is generally true in trend as bullish is 382, extreme is 236.

I hope I have answered your question.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #180
  • Oct 20, 2015 12:59am Oct 20, 2015 12:59am
It's clear for me, that fib lines are useless just by themselves. It can be double edged sword to rely on them solely, due to the fact, that market movement is more like a human nature, that can not be predicted completely by statistics. But you can use it as a support for MA, and indicators of the same type. The result usually would be 80/20 in your favour, which is pretty good. So I would recomend to use fib lines, but do it with casious, implementing analysis and other types of indicators.
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