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Fibonacci Indicator? Is it a big Joke?

  • #141
  • Oct 18, 2015 3:02pm Oct 18, 2015 3:02pm
If you think about it ,its all psychology ,in a free market the chart is man made by the best minds ,I honestly believe mostly there too big to be pushed around for extended periods ,that patterns would never work and the market would be completely random as other poster suggested ,
numbers and targets would always be set by humans end of day
most people believe in the science of fib but
regardless end of day its a useful tool in simple measurement ,to judge retrace or reversal ,
thats the only way I can use fib tool because thats all I understand or need ,your find most will at some point use it ,it would work just because of that

keeping it simple I would use fib tool to measure candles against one another ,to define them ,
such as piercing line must close above 50% of RB of previous ,but then 61.80 ,you can start adding weight to probability of whats happening ,
I could do the math but then why when I got this handy tool
If I did that to a D1 single candle guess thats the same as your H4 fib trader he's looking at the same thing ,for confluence
so on and so forth



Quoting Prochartist
{quote} hahaha nice reply, and now you know all about indicators as they simply calculate the past and big players hunt traders all the time using what indicators preach always remember to trick the tricky you need to be wiser then the tricky ... always keep in mind and ask your self what big players will do now ... if you watch charts closely you will see always the market surprise traders ... yes so true the market reward those ones who think out of the box during setting up there trades. also trading is all about prediction, this is why astrology...
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #142
  • Oct 18, 2015 4:16pm Oct 18, 2015 4:16pm
Quoting Mingary
{quote} {quote} Straw man argument: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man I don't believe the Fibonacci indicator can be used to make money consistently. I am just asking that you prove me wrong.. The Fibonacci enthusiasts are making the claim, not me.
Just goes to show (once again) the level of research you do (or not) behind your claims. Just 3 pages back and 12 hours ago I posted my proof in this thread.

But did you look? Of course not. You love to ramble about nothing so long as it's negative. We get that. Anyway, it doesn't have to work or mean anything to you. That's the way you prefer it and that's fine too.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #143
  • Oct 18, 2015 4:21pm Oct 18, 2015 4:21pm
Quoting ruma29
{quote} Do you have an indicator or know how to get HLC bars as DM is using?
Sorry, I don't know who DM is, and I'm unfamiliar with the indicators in this thread.

I assume that you realize that OHLC bars are native to MT4. Then you could just ignore the little peg to the left of the bar, that is the open price.

Beyond that, you could Google "MT4 HLC bars" and it will return a large number of links, e.g. here
  • #144
  • Oct 18, 2015 5:18pm Oct 18, 2015 5:18pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} Just goes to show (once again) the level of research you do (or not) behind your claims. Just 3 pages back and 12 hours ago I posted my proof in this thread. But did you look? Of course not. You love to ramble about nothing so long as it's negative. We get that. Anyway, it doesn't have to work or mean anything to you. That's the way you prefer it and that's fine too.
Where is is the proof?

I seen a few posts about your use of fibs, but no scientific analysis.

To be clear, if a method cannot be applied in a rigorous way and does not stand up to statistical scrutiny then it doesn't add any value.

I have yet to see anyone prove it has any statistical edge by itself, the only statistical edge that I have seen is with the trend.
  • #145
  • Oct 18, 2015 5:31pm Oct 18, 2015 5:31pm
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Anyhow, you are not answering the question.
I have on several posts clearly even names of traders successfully trading fib levels but I guess it flies over your head.Dogmatic because you refuse to see that fib works! Dogmatic because you fail to see that enough traders using same tools effect the market but it effects even without it.
Elliot when he did his studies on stock market nobody was trading fib levels but he found strong evidence market adhering to it.
Yes crowd behavior also has fib levels hence EW's
I am not going to convince someone like you, don't need to.Someone said we take from markets what we deserve.Well that speaks volumes already.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #146
  • Oct 18, 2015 5:33pm Oct 18, 2015 5:33pm
If enough traders, big and small, think the price will turn at a certain level and trade accordingly, guess what....the price turns at that level. Fibs work for one reason, not because of any divine code that Fibonacci uncovered, but because enough people think fibs work. If the OP gets enough people on his side of this (moot) debate, fibs won't work anymore. Then he'll be right.
  • #147
  • Oct 18, 2015 5:36pm Oct 18, 2015 5:36pm
Quoting verv
{quote} Where is is the proof? I seen even a few posts about your use of fibs, but no scientific analysis. To be clear, if a method cannot be applied in a rigorous way and does not stand up to statistical scrutiny then it doesn't add any value.
I guess seeing the trades, from beginning to end, and the results all solely based on using fibs isn't enough. So be it. I know it works time and time again. As do many others who have also been using it successfully for years. I guess it all depends on your personal definition of "applied in a rigorous way" .... doesn't it.

"Statistics" are a farce anyway. The results depend entirely on the model constructed to study/produce the results. You can take the exact same set of facts and produce various models to give different results. Does that change the facts? .. I don't think so.

The only "statistic" I care about in trading is, do I have more money in the account at the end of the day/week/month/year. To that end, I have no doubts the proper use of fibs is a "statistically" proven approach. Call me silly but, to me? That adds plenty of value.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #148
  • Oct 18, 2015 5:37pm Oct 18, 2015 5:37pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I have on several posts clearly even names of traders successfully trading fib levels but I guess it flies over your head.Dogmatic because you refuse to see that fib works! Dogmatic because you fail to see that enough traders using same tools effect the market but it effects even without it. Elliot when he did his studies on stock market nobody was trading fib levels but he found strong evidence market adhering to it. Yes crowd behavior also has fib levels hence EW's I am not going to convince someone like you, don't need to.Someone said...
...
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #149
  • Oct 18, 2015 5:39pm Oct 18, 2015 5:39pm
Quoting goosebone
If enough traders, big and small, think the price will turn at a certain level and trade accordingly, guess what....the price turns at that level. Fibs work for one reason, not because of any divine code that Fibonacci uncovered, but because enough people think fibs work. If the OP gets enough people on his side of this (moot) debate, fibs won't work anymore. Then he'll be right.
It works even if nobody is using Fib tools.
Please read Nelson Elliot studies 1938-39 back then there were no fib tools nor traders trading it.

"
The Elliott Wave Principle posits that collective investor psychology, or crowd psychology, moves between optimism and pessimism in natural sequences. These mood swings create patterns evidenced in the price movements of markets at every degree of trend or time scale.
In Elliott's model, market prices alternate between an impulsive, or motive phase, and a corrective phase on all time scales of trend, as the illustration shows. Impulses are always subdivided into a set of 5 lower-degree waves, alternating again between motive and corrective character, so that waves 1, 3, and 5 are impulses, and waves 2 and 4 are smaller retraces of waves 1 and 3. Corrective waves subdivide into 3 smaller-degree waves starting with a five-wave counter-trend impulse, a retrace, and another impulse. In a bear market the dominant trend is downward, so the pattern is reversedfive waves down and three up. Motive waves always move with the trend, while corrective waves move against it."
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #150
  • Oct 18, 2015 5:45pm Oct 18, 2015 5:45pm
Its not "happy accident" using Bob the artist's phrase that price stalled at 61S
I make consistent money using this simple tool with fundies news momentum TDI crosses
Look how price just stalled there.Now look up at R100!!!
Do me a favor guys throw this indi on your charts and make $$ I am serious
I should charge you!!
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #151
  • Oct 18, 2015 5:47pm Oct 18, 2015 5:47pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} It works even if nobody is using Fib tools. Please read Nelson Elliot studies."
Will do, looks interesting. Thanks for the reference.
  • #152
  • Oct 18, 2015 6:01pm Oct 18, 2015 6:01pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} I guess seeing the trades, from beginning to end, and the results all solely based on using fibs isn't enough. So be it. I know it works time and time again. As do many others who have also been using it successfully for years. I guess it all depends on your personal definition of "applied in a rigorous way" .... doesn't it. "Statistics" are a farce anyway. The results depend entirely on the model constructed to study/produce the results. You can take the exact same set of facts and produce various models to give different results. Does...
Yes those results would be fine, do you have those results to hand? I'm fairly handy with basic statistics.

What kind of statistics are you practising btw? Statistics shouldn't be about fitting you data till you get the outcome you want, easy to spot when someone does that.

For fibs you could use a very simple statistical test would demonstrate if it works better than by chance, nothing needs to be fancy.

Pick a level, define a successful trade, control for it, apply a chi square test, done. Easy.
  • #153
  • Oct 18, 2015 6:16pm Oct 18, 2015 6:16pm
Quoting verv
{quote} Yes those results would be fine, do you have those results to hand?
Did you even bother to see my post (#92 on page 5) and the link at the bottom to those results? (The one I told Mingary of that you replied to?) If not, I can understand why you're subscribed to Mingary. He doesn't bother to check facts either. Have a look.

Given my statement to you on statistics, It's rather funny you should ask what statistics I practice? I'd think you'd already know?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #154
  • Oct 19, 2015 1:56am Oct 19, 2015 1:56am
Quoting hanover
{quote} Sorry, I don't know who DM is, ....
DM (TD)=>Thomas R. DeMark.....you attached his pdf files and indicators for Sequential...so on his pdf file you can see HLC bars ...and my question was related to that..

I am not obsessed with HLC nor my trading depends on it ...it was just wandering....you are a programmer for long time so I thought you might know if there is some indicator or something to make it HLC...
  • #155
  • Oct 19, 2015 2:33am Oct 19, 2015 2:33am
Why every discussion ends in a stupid ego battle like 8 grade childs?
The thing is: if fibonacci really works it should provide an edge by itself. It does not have scientific evidence if you say "Look I use it and I make money so it works" beucase if you use it in x, y , z condition then is likely that x, y, z conditions provide the edge and not fibonacci itself. And if you use fibonacci retrecements, for example, you have so many lines that is more likely than not that price will turn around one of those. Another problem is that drawing fibonacci is very subjective.
If fibonacci work or not there should be a reason for it and not because it's magic. There is some evidence that the "law of nature" thing is more fairy tale than actual fact. If many people use it, it could be a fulfilling prophecy but doesnt seem that so many people really uses it, given that the market is made at 90% by banks/LP/marketmakers , the only reason for it to work should be because banks and their algorithm use those tools for making the market but I have no evidence for this to be true or wrong.
  • #156
  • Oct 19, 2015 3:02am Oct 19, 2015 3:02am
Quoting Mag357
Why every discussion ends in a stupid ego battle like 8 grade childs?
When you start the thread with the title "Is it a big joke ?" what do you expect ?
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #157
  • Oct 19, 2015 3:46am Oct 19, 2015 3:46am
Quoting Mag357
given that the market is made at 90% by banks/LP/marketmakers , the only reason for it to work should be because banks and their algorithm use those tools for making the market but I have no evidence for this to be true or wrong.
You have no idea how right you are on this!

But in the end, traders should understand that the ultimate truth and "holy grail" in trading is to just keep 100% open mind, see the things as they are, find what works more often then not, and just trade it. (No matter how ridiculous "the thing" looks, or how it "doesn't make any sense")! You don't need to know why something works. You only need to know that it works, and you have the correct strategy to exploit "the thing" and to make consistent profits. To look for "proof", or to ask "WHY", is pure waste of time and energy in this business.
  • #158
  • Oct 19, 2015 3:59am Oct 19, 2015 3:59am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Did you even bother to see my post (#92 on page 5) and the link at the bottom to those results? (The one I told Mingary of that you replied to?) If not, I can understand why you're subscribed to Mingary. He doesn't bother to check facts either. Have a look. Given my statement to you on statistics, It's rather funny you should ask what statistics I practice? I'd think you'd already know?
That isn't really results though, as you said a 'few of your fib trades.'

Anyone can cherry picks, that is the whole point of having warts and all results. It is also the point of statistics, it takes the decision out of your hands. So you don't actually have either, which means you don't have any proof.

Note I'm not saying YOU can't make money from using fibs. I just don't believe fibs by itself adds any value whatsoever.
  • #159
  • Oct 19, 2015 4:16am Oct 19, 2015 4:16am
Quoting verv
{quote} That isn't really results though, as you said a 'few of your fib trades.' Anyone can cherry picks, that is the whole point of having warts and all results. It is also the point of statistics, it takes the decision out of your hands. So you don't actually have either, which means you don't have any proof. Note I'm not saying YOU can't make money from using fibs. I just don't believe fibs by itself adds any value whatsoever.
LOL .. ok

Yes, they were just a "few" of the latest examples. My thread is quite a few years old and contains many more. But having been here long enough I know that nobody would actually dig back to see them. But if you (or anyone) were to, you'd see I don't "cherry pick" anything. All trades posted in real time, live, from start to finish win, lose or draw.

What I find interesting though is that many have come here to show "results" that fibs add value in trading. Those who claim they don't have provided no "proof" of their claims. Simply saying "you don't believe it" means nothing.

Anyway it was a fun little debate. I'll continue to make money using fibs as part of my trading and you can continue doing whatever makes you money.

I'm done here. Enjoy the day folks.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #160
  • Oct 19, 2015 4:18am Oct 19, 2015 4:18am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} You have no idea how right you are on this!
Do we have some kind of direct evidence or strong suggestion for this to be true?

Quoting alphaomega
{quote} But in the end, traders should understand that the ultimate truth and "holy grail" in trading is to just keep 100% open mind, see the things as they are, find what works more often then not, and just trade it. (No matter how ridiculous "the thing" looks, or how it "doesn't make any sense")! You don't need to know why something works. You only need to know that it works, and you have the correct strategy to exploit "the thing" and to make consistent profits. To look for "proof", or to ask "WHY", is pure waste of time and energy in this business....
Yes you are right about open mind but I don't like to run my business based of some unknown "magical" things. I'd like to see a reason for something to happen.
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