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Fibonacci Indicator? Is it a big Joke?

  • #41
  • Jun 22, 2011 3:28pm Jun 22, 2011 3:28pm
Quoting supremeChaos

wow.




u ridicule Fib & indicators... but your chart above has indicators?
hahaha supreme chaos ... you are not the only one with chaos ... i m the extreme chaos as a raging brain storm 24/7/365 i did test all indicators in the market also endup professional in programming robots and indicators ... yet nothing is 100% in the forex ... a secret for you ... when you smile in trading you see market better ... keep on joking and smiling during trading ... yet be 100% discipline cos when you profit is the wonderful feeling of all ... have fun and trade and hunt pips
Forex
  • #42
  • Jun 22, 2011 6:57pm Jun 22, 2011 6:57pm
Quoting Prochartist
Let me be so clear, history never repeat it self ...
If history doesn't repeat itself, it sure does rhyme...
  • #43
  • Jun 24, 2011 6:22am Jun 24, 2011 6:22am
Oh so if I get this straight you are utterly disqualifying centuries if not millennia of man made progress! My friend let me tell you had it not been for this guy we would all still be behind the bush…
Had you had your facts straight, you would have known that your dear “Fractal Indicator” is based on Fibonacci. Had it not been for the work of Fibonacci, Mandelbrot wouldn’t have ever come close to make his breakthrough in Fractal Geometry.
Had it not been for Fibonacci, you wouldn’t even be trading! Not to mention not having a computer, internet, mobile, car, electricity and so on and so forth…
How creative was this “INDIAN” family to call their son LEONARDO in the 12th century, quite a funky name for an old lazy INDIAN mathematician don’t you think?!!!
I wonder if we just got rid of the Golden Ratio in everything from mathematics, physics, chemistry, probability, engineering, cartography all the way to astrophysics and nuclear science, where would we stand. Even better yet let’s replace that with a Tony Sequence/Ratio in Roman Numerals? I assure you that if you manage to unprove his work your name will be as big as his if not bigger in just a couple of centuries…
I myself not only make use of the Fibonacci TOOL, I also have time targets based on Fib ratios that are added and subtracted from the mean, but that would be way too complicated for you to grasp, since this lazy old IDIAN decided to skip numbers…
Maybe you can start by getting in touch with these individuals who might be interested to start working with you on the project
http://wolafen.wordpress.com/2009/03/01/fibonacci-sequence-spirals-fractals-growth-and-expansion/
Good Luck!
  • #44
  • Jun 24, 2011 6:26am Jun 24, 2011 6:26am
Quoting Chantalb
Oh so if I get this straight you are utterly disqualifying centuries if not millennia of man made progress! My friend let me tell you had it not been for this guy we would all still be behind the bush…
Had you had your facts straight, you would have known that your dear “Fractal Indicator” is based on Fibonacci. Had it not been for the work of Fibonacci, Mandelbrot wouldn’t have ever come close to make his breakthrough in Fractal Geometry.
[size=3][font=Calibri]Had it not been...
tl;dr
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #45
  • Jun 24, 2011 7:53am Jun 24, 2011 7:53am
Quoting Chantalb
Had it not been for Fibonacci, you wouldn’t even be trading! Not to mention not having a computer, internet, mobile, car, electricity and so on and so forth…
http://images.mmorpg.com/images/avatars/orly.jpeg




The sequence of Fibonacci numbers has some properties in the realm of theoretical mathematics. You can find them also in nature. But there's no discovery behind the progress of the mankind which couldn't have taken place if one didn't know the properties of the Fib progression. Be my guest to show that the electricity has something to do with the Fib numbers.
  • #46
  • Jun 24, 2011 1:18pm Jun 24, 2011 1:18pm
Quoting Chantalb
Oh so if I get this straight you are utterly disqualifying centuries if not millennia of man made progress! My friend let me tell you had it not been for this guy we would all still be behind the bush…
Had you had your facts straight, you would have known that your dear “Fractal Indicator” is based on Fibonacci. Had it not been for the work of Fibonacci, Mandelbrot wouldn’t have ever come close to make his breakthrough in Fractal Geometry.
[size=3][font=Calibri]Had it not been...
None of this has to do with trading or markets whatsoever. He was a great mathematician, no doubt, but markets are purely made up of human behavior and psychology. Neither of which as far as I know have any overlap with Fibonacci numbers.

To be clear, I'm not saying you shouldn't use them, because anything that helps you trade should be taken advantage of, now matter how trivial or irrelevant it may seem to some. Heck, I have an EMA on my chart that I know the market doesn't give a sheep's wool about, but it helps me visualize how fast the market is moving and where we are at relative to recent prices.

I just happen to think that the majority of confluence that traders see with Fibonacci indicators is often down to pure coincidence. People will claim that X retracement got hit when really price hit through it and went past, but reversed; does that really count? If the 38.2% retrace was at 100, and price went to 103 (say, 41% in this case), how can you give credit to the Fibo number? You could just as easily put a chart up with 33% (1/3), 50% (1/2), and 66% (2/3), all of which are relatively close to Fibo numbers, and they will get hit often-- I'm not willing to say as often, more often, or less often, because I have no statistical evidence in front of me, but my wager would be on 'as often'.
  • #47
  • Jun 24, 2011 1:34pm Jun 24, 2011 1:34pm
You do know that some big money is put on fibs don't you?

try 76.4 and 78.6... i wouldn't be watching this on much on intraday charts, more like dailies...

I also watch the key sma's on the daily and hourly, just as possible inflection points.
  • #48
  • Jun 25, 2011 12:59am Jun 25, 2011 12:59am
I see "Fibonacci Retracements" as popular levels where orders have accumulated via discount shoppers and/or trailed stops based on recent market participation taking effect.

Example; The '38.2' is the average of 25% and 50% which equal 37.5, with the number weighted a little (~1%) by the 50% level. Same goes for 61.8.. (50%+75%)/2 = 62.5, weighed by the popular 50 level.

I laugh when people use the term "50% Fibonacci retracement". Its called "half"!
  • #49
  • Jun 27, 2011 1:24pm Jun 27, 2011 1:24pm
Quoting Monroe
You do know that some big money is put on fibs don't you?

try 76.4 and 78.6... i wouldn't be watching this on much on intraday charts, more like dailies...

I also watch the key sma's on the daily and hourly, just as possible inflection points.
Yes, I do buy into the self-fulfilling prophesy, sort of, and only on the longer time frames, but there is still far too much subjectivity when it comes to fib numbers, and far too much leniency given when one says they work. Look at the downtrend on the EURUSD from November 2009 to June 2010-- a pretty solid and easy to define trend if I've ever seen one. Fibs? Not one got respected on the way back. Unless of course you are going just by the fib 'area', in which case I definitely agree fibs 'work'. Any retrace tool that puts it's numbers near common psychological numbers (25%, 33%, 50%, 66%, 75%, etc.) is going to 'work'.

I've seen fibs be right on the dot, down to the pip on retracements before, but I've also seen this happen with other technical indicators that I don't believe have any impact on the market, whatsoever. Murrey math lines, for instance-- splits the trend into octaves, and I've seen some of those lines appear to be hit on the dot, too. Same with fib arcs, and a bunch of other stuff that just screams coincidence.

I mean why even care about 76.4%, and not 75%, which is a way more psychologically powerful figure? Why 23.6% and not 25%? Unless of course you believe that there is some magical essence to fibs.
  • #50
  • Apr 17, 2014 3:59am Apr 17, 2014 3:59am
Quoting Chantalb
Oh so if I get this straight you are utterly disqualifying centuries if not millennia of man made progress! My friend let me tell you had it not been for this guy we would all still be behind the bush… Had you had your facts straight, you would have known that your dear “Fractal Indicator” is based on Fibonacci. Had it not been for the work of Fibonacci, Mandelbrot wouldn’t have ever come close to make his breakthrough in Fractal Geometry. Had it not been for Fibonacci, you wouldn’t even be trading! Not to mention not having a computer, internet,...
The fib sequence was discovered by Indian mathematicians from 400 AD to 1200 AD. Fib read about it in his trip(s) with his father and applied the numbers to the rabbit problem. He did not discover it.
  • #51
  • May 25, 2014 3:14pm May 25, 2014 3:14pm
The fact is that the FX Market is a complete chaos but human nature cannot afford the sentiment of chaos and uncertainty so that's why they need to believe in these dogmas just like the fib number. I mean, Fibonacci was a great mathematician but it's a fallacy to use it in the markets. I don't believe, however, that it's "a joke" and completely useless. Everything that provides security to the feeble and insecure humans is good in the long run.
  • #52
  • May 25, 2014 3:18pm May 25, 2014 3:18pm
886 113 127 are OK, as quite obviously is 50.
  • #53
  • May 30, 2014 1:55pm May 30, 2014 1:55pm
The Fibonacci ratio is active in 90% of all market activity. To ignore this ratio is to ignore the heartbeat of the market.

HINT: You may have to invent a new indicator that adapts to the market continuously so you don't have to reset the anchor points. That is what I did.

2nd HINT: You may have to scrap your preconceived notions of what an indicator is supposed to do.
  • #54
  • May 30, 2014 3:40pm May 30, 2014 3:40pm
I personally don't like or use fibs. To me, it's the most hindsight indicator out there. Looks great when it hits, but at the time, I'll bet you didn't know when or which level was getting hit, or which swing high/low combo to use, so you would probably lose more money trying to figure it out than you would once it did make a bounce.

I've also noticed that during sustained periods of low volume like we've had recently, most of your price action tools like trend lines and fibs barely work at all.

Just my thoughts, I'm not as good at using fibs as some are, so that goes into my opinion as well. Ignoring them completely has served me well however.
  • #55
  • May 30, 2014 4:28pm May 30, 2014 4:28pm
Quoting Prochartist
{quote} hahaha nice reply, and now you know all about indicators as they simply calculate the past and big players hunt traders all the time using what indicators preach always remember to trick the tricky you need to be wiser then the tricky ... always keep in mind and ask your self what big players will do now ... if you watch charts closely you will see always the market surprise traders ... yes so true the market reward those ones who think out of the box during setting up there trades. also trading is all about prediction, this is why astrology...
Lets hear it for those wearing the foil hats in the crowd. I wonder if there is a thread any where that doesn't mention "the big players" or "the institutional traders" and stop hunting, and "big boy trades and traps". This is a trillion dollar market. When the BOJ tried to stop the Yen sell off years ago it took over 6 Billion Yen to move price around 40 pips and they had to dump it all at once. Go back and read what it took the swiss bank in cash to intervene. DO you really think some bank can move the market!!!!! Really ????

Lets discuss some foil hat wearing, chanting trader myths.

Show me one actual " institutional order board" that has orders on it that can move the market, show me just one

Show me the balance sheet were a major bank defended "an exotic option" or set up an "option barrier". While your at it why don't you try and dam the Amazon with popsicle sticks because it would be about as effective.

Show me how legit brokers hunt stops. They all use the meta trader platform and every tick is recorded so if you have had your stop hunted show me the spike independent of all the other brokers. Brokers shade the moves so they have the currency on hand when the contract is settled they make their money off the spread not your measly $25.00 that you set as a stop.

Keep reading Forex Live for their "sources". Ever notice not one of them ever calls a shot before it happened. With all their order board info and option barrier info and crystal balls they get up everyday and write articles. They make money off affiliate marketing.

Terms such as institutional traders big guys etc are marketing terms to make people think they are up against it and will therefore buy the product. They put doubt in your head. There are no big guys in forex everyone is a piece of sand on the beach. Are their commercial traders YEP and they are just like us only they may get a better deal on the spread or a nice dinner out but in the end those guys have the same tools we do and YES they look at them and use them because they know something you don't.........
YOU are afraid of them for no real good reason just rumor really but that's their advantage. They know you will sell after 30 pips and they are right their to buy it to keep the trend going. When they have had their fill and feel the move has come to far they stop buying and reverse the trend. They are just like you but you wont believe that so they succeed and you fail. So keep wearing the hat it helps it really does.
  • #56
  • Oct 16, 2015 10:32pm Oct 16, 2015 10:32pm
Hi there,

I down loaded a Fibo indicator but for some reason, it wont show up. It seems to be working for other traders. Can anyone who is tech savvy provide assistance?

2015.10.16 20:27:38.253 cannot open file 'C:\Program Files (x86)\FXCM MetaTrader 4\MQL4\indicators\Fibo_Independence.ex4' [2]
  • #57
  • Oct 16, 2015 11:48pm Oct 16, 2015 11:48pm
Quoting awcharts
Hi there, I down loaded a Fibo indicator but for some reason, it wont show up. It seems to be working for other traders. Can anyone who is tech savvy provide assistance? 2015.10.16 20:27:38.253 cannot open file 'C:\Program Files (x86)\FXCM MetaTrader 4\MQL4\indicators\Fibo_Independence.ex4' [2]
In reply to your message on my profile page --- some ideas:

 Make sure you have the indy loaded in the correct folder. Use MT4 menu: File.... Open Data Folder.... then step down to MQL4 and Indicators. The indy should be installed in this folder. And preferably the .ex4 file only, i.e. delete any .mq4 file. Load the .ex4 file into this folder, then exit and restart MT4.

 It could be that the indy (.mq4) was written pre build 509, and needs to either be recompiled using build 509 compiler, or recoded to run on build 600 upward. NOTE: no programmer can look at the code unless you post the .mq4 file.

 Try re-installing MT4 somewhere else other than under the Program Files (x86) folder. Then install the indicator there, in the correct folder (as explained above). This will help you to determine if the (original) MT4 installation has somehow become damaged.

 Try installing another br0ker's MT4 platform. This will tell you whether any problem is with the indy or with FXCM's platform.

 Try installing the indy on another computer's MT4. This will tell you whether any problem is computer-related.

 Contact FXCM's helpdesk. You're paying them transaction costs, so make them earn their money!
  • #58
  • Oct 16, 2015 11:51pm Oct 16, 2015 11:51pm
Does Someone here has MTF Fibonnaci Levels and Demark's Sequential Indicators for MT4.
  • #59
  • Oct 17, 2015 12:07am Oct 17, 2015 12:07am
"Fibonacci Indicator? Is it a big Joke?"


Indeed it is ...

http://www.lhup.edu/~dsimanek/pseudo/fibonacc.htm
  • #60
  • Edited 1:51am Oct 17, 2015 1:23am | Edited 1:51am
"Fibonacci Indicator? Is it a big Joke?"

LOL, this discussion keeps cropping up over and over again.

To whatever extent price movement does respect fibo levels, there are two possible reasons: subconscious, and conscious, decision making.

Until I see hard scientific evidence that our subconscious minds are somehow wired 'fibonastically', I'll continue to dismiss this idea. To suggest that, just because other forms of nature exhibit golden ratio type patterns, that the trader's subconscious decision making processes necessarily does likewise, requires a significant leap of faith.

What about conscious decision making? Well, markets move according to order volumes. Hence if large enough volumes of limit orders get placed at fibo levels (which also assumes that enough traders all plot their fibos using the same high/low points), then the latter must necessarily have some effect on price movement. And if traders place them there because they're anticipating that effect, we have 'self-fulfilling prophecy'. Does this exist? I would say that it exists to whatever extent prices reverse at fibo levels beyond what one can reasonably attribute to 'randomness' (and the nearby presence of any other technical levels). Exactly the same logic applies for any other technical levels (candle based S/R, trendlines, round numbers, pivots, whatever). There are so many factors that drive price movement, that for any self-fulfilling prophecy to have significant impact, the collective belief amongst traders in its predictive power would need to be overwhelmingly great.

I suspect that, to keep the coding simple, a lot of algorithmic trading would anticipate bounces at widely known levels. To whatever extent the algos use fibo levels, this would add to the 'self-fulfilling prophecy' effect.

I have one question that nobody, who believes that price respects fibo levels to the exact pip, has yet been able to answer. At the end of an uptrend, the extreme high price occurs where the last buy order gets extinguished by a sufficient volume of sellers. That leads me to the conclusion that only the buyer and the sellers at that exact level applied the fibonacci ratio. What about all of the billions of lots traded in the scatter diagram that could be plotted below that high, that helped to retard the upthrust? Apparently the traders who placed those orders used slightly different fibo ratios, LOL

____________________

Quoting Robinfxtrade
Does Someone here has MTF Fibonnaci Levels and Demark's Sequential Indicators for MT4.
Demark sequential: attached.

MTF Fibo: I don't understand. Fibo levels are not TF dependent, they are simply plotted between candle highs/lows. On any TF, you can see highs/lows on higher TFs -- and thus use them for plotting fibo retracements -- if you zoom out far enough. Also, if you want to automate fibo plots, you would need to specify how far back the lookback must be, to get the highest high and lowest low to use as the 0 and 100 levels within the lookback period.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 MAB_TD_Sequential.ex4   14 KB | 477 downloads
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