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Oil and Natural Gas

  • #1,901
  • Sep 27, 2015 5:19am Sep 27, 2015 5:19am
Quoting yeniful
The WTI price narrowing is going to result in a push much lower. Turn around season will not demand as much as the last 12 months. Supplies will grow as forecasts call for reduction - going to be immensely bearish. Retest of 38 low soon and in my opinion a push below 38. Playing the $35 Nov WTI Puts on nymex. Accumulating a bunch of them on days when WTI is up the last 2 weeks. The options go from 5 to 20 cents when WTI is volatile.......if WTI falls much lower those options will rise by 10 fold
Not seeing your WTI listed. All I got is this..
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/wti
  • #1,902
  • Sep 27, 2015 9:14am Sep 27, 2015 9:14am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Not seeing your WTI listed. All I got is this.. http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/wti
C M E for futures and options, not Nasdaq for equities and their options.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/ener...s_options.html
  • #1,903
  • Sep 30, 2015 12:53pm Sep 30, 2015 12:53pm
I will be a buyer if NG drop to 2.12, it should, patience patience...
  • #1,904
  • Sep 30, 2015 1:28pm Sep 30, 2015 1:28pm
And if it does why would you buy?
  • #1,905
  • Edited 3:58pm Sep 30, 2015 3:46pm | Edited 3:58pm
NG looks heavy on the offer... The April low is approaching... an interesting Weekly close coming up..

Fading Demand Sends Natural Gas Futures Lower for Third Day

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Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #1,906
  • Oct 1, 2015 2:36am Oct 1, 2015 2:36am
With weather like this could we be seeing a possible spike in energies?

http://www.13newsnow.com/story/weath...oast/73019316/
  • #1,907
  • Oct 1, 2015 8:34am Oct 1, 2015 8:34am
Maybe slightly.
  • #1,908
  • Oct 4, 2015 11:38am Oct 4, 2015 11:38am
Oil Bulls Lose Faith in Recovery as Russia Adds to Global Glut


Hedge funds trimmed bullish oil bets for the first time in six weeks, losing faith in a swift recovery as Russia boosted output to the highest since the Soviet Union collapsed. Speculators reduced their net-long position in West Texas Intermediate crude by 9.1 percent in the week ended Sept. 29, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Longs dropped from a 12-week high while shorts increased. U.S. crude output is down 514,000 barrels a day from a four-decade high reached in June, Energy Information Administration data show. The number of rigs targeting oil in the U.S. dropped to a five year low, Baker Hughes Inc. said Oct. 2. WTI traded in the tightest range since June last month as China’s slowing economy and the highest Russian output in two decades signaled the global glut will linger.

"The U.S. producers are the only ones doing their part to reduce the global glut," John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund, said by phone. "Other countries, such as Russia, are pumping at full tilt. The cutbacks by shale producers here aren’t going to have much impact, especially given the slowing global economy."

WTI decreased 1.3 percent in the report week to $45.23 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It settled at $45.54 Friday.


Technicals..( imho )~ Looking at the last 5 Weekly bars its anyones guess .. Though If I had to make a decision short Oil would be where I would lean due to the Weekly 10ma still seems to have offers and its with trend.. a close above the 10wma might make me change my mind though and we still have that Monthly hammer.. I'm not trading this atm for obvious reasons, waiting for some definitive movement..


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Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #1,909
  • Oct 4, 2015 11:45am Oct 4, 2015 11:45am
Quoting j4d
an interesting Weekly close coming up..

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  • #1,910
  • Oct 4, 2015 3:53pm Oct 4, 2015 3:53pm
Thanks Ja
Quoting j4d
... Hedge funds trimmed bullish oil bets for the first time in six weeks, losing faith in a swift recovery as Russia boosted output to the highest since the Soviet Union collapsed.
I lost faith in a swift recovery last June when OPEC refused to cut output.

Quoting j4d
... "The U.S. producers are the only ones doing their part to reduce the global glut," John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC ...
What makes him think that they have a choice?
The point is that US producers can't justify capital expense to keep production up because they can't recover their Capex at current prices.

There is a creeping belief in parts of Europe that oil based energy is a dirty scene. If that spreads much into the major consumers then, IMHO, oil prices will never recover.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #1,911
  • Oct 4, 2015 5:37pm Oct 4, 2015 5:37pm
Quoting Exodus
Thanks Ja {quote} I lost faith in a swift recovery last June when OPEC refused to cut output. {quote} What makes him think that they have a choice? The point is that US producers can't justify capital expense to keep production up because they can't recover their Capex at current prices. There is a creeping belief in parts of Europe that oil based energy is a dirty scene. If that spreads much into the major consumers then, IMHO, oil prices will never recover.
U.S. are private industry unlike Middle Eastern nations and Venezuela etc which other than having way less revenue to keep the masses happy don't have to deal with bankers and shareholders.

Also it is a lot easier for a company to shut down a well and then restart it in the future in North Dakota than Nigeria.
  • #1,912
  • Oct 5, 2015 1:00pm Oct 5, 2015 1:00pm
Hey Guys..

Russia is allegedly ready to enter talks with OPEC and non-OPEC producers..


http://myndoscapital.com/russia-read...pec-producers/
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #1,913
  • Oct 16, 2015 8:03am Oct 16, 2015 8:03am
I think it's time to short the crude oil......
  • #1,914
  • Oct 16, 2015 8:09am Oct 16, 2015 8:09am
Quoting SuperMario21
I think it's time to short the crude oil......
imo, not yet, Saudis trying hard to get Russia out of Europe and secure deals before Iran sanctions off in two month. so, oil will go higher just to drop hard end of December...http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/1...0S90DF20151015
  • #1,915
  • Oct 16, 2015 8:19am Oct 16, 2015 8:19am
Quoting medvic
{quote} imo, not yet, Saudis trying hard to get Russia out of Europe and secure deals before Iran sanctions off in two month. so, oil will go higher just to drop hard end of December...http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/1...0S90DF20151015
Good...
Around 47.40 seems good...
  • #1,916
  • Oct 16, 2015 12:25pm Oct 16, 2015 12:25pm
Quoting SuperMario21
{quote} Good... Around 47.40 seems good...
I think i will give it a tr too from this point, Thanks anyway.
  • #1,917
  • Oct 16, 2015 2:47pm Oct 16, 2015 2:47pm
Quoting IbrahIm2009
{quote} I think i will give it a tr too from this point, Thanks anyway.
  • #1,918
  • Oct 16, 2015 2:50pm Oct 16, 2015 2:50pm
Quoting SuperMario21
{quote} Good... Around 47.40 seems good...
One more position opened.
I will close them on Monday, now I don't know exactly where, but under 46.
Next week trend up again....
  • #1,919
  • Edited 3:10pm Oct 16, 2015 2:54pm | Edited 3:10pm
Quoting medvic
{quote} imo, not yet, Saudis trying hard to get Russia out of Europe and secure deals before Iran sanctions off in two month. so, oil will go higher just to drop hard end of December...http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/1...0S90DF20151015
Sorry, nothing against you, but when I trade for 100/200 ticks I don't really care about this kind of news.
  • #1,920
  • Oct 18, 2015 7:44am Oct 18, 2015 7:44am
America's Biggest Shale Gas Field Is Choking on Its Own Supply

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...its-own-supply
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
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