Let's Trade Options

/ES had bounced 4-5 times from 2,000... Now that is resistance, and this now - it is 3rd time that it is rejected from that level... but only a couple of points so far. Scalped there a bit... not exactly sure what will they do next. Volume was OK yesterday on a down day, but seems like there is no will to go decisively north OR south.

Looks like a breakout on /ES so far... they are above first key level (Sep FOMC spike) that was tested a couple of times previously. It is around 2014 on /ES. In case of a real break, next level to watch is around 2040 - the bottom of the previous multi-month consolidation.

If SPY can squeeze another $2-3 day Friday, I will make my October nut + much more....I have the O/O4 $205/$206 call diags and $206 call calendars in good numbers across multiple accounts

otoh, sorry I let VXX put diagonals run - I have O/O4 $20/19 and if SPY is running north tomorrow I will have to buy out the $20 short leg and sell the O4 $18.5 puts to make a O4 $19/18.5p vertical, and that will cost me at least a dime maybe twice that........got in the diag for a 2c debit originally, now prolly will eat a gamma shit sandwich - but there's only a 8-lot that got left on.....

NFLX O/O4 kitty I was in for 5c and out for 35c b4 the ER, ....NFLX dropped about $10 after the ER, and the front week iv's dropped from >60% over the back week's to about 30% over.....soooo, I am sitting at the exact dead low point on the P/L and the DD is still about 25c net, if NFLX would make some move either way Friday I might have come out way ahead to wait.....but always, better safe than sorry

Watched FXE break 112.5, passed on doing anything about it ... . I've got one last Dec 112/115 short call vert put on it seems like eons ago, which is about all I want to devote to the thing ... . Now if we get some volatility back in FXE, I may rethink that, but with the repetitive rate hike can kicking, my excitement level on FXE has ebbed dramatically in the short-term ... .

heard that, I have never been much into FXE. You can make a good case for fiber dropping hard when the can kick game is finally done, maybe look at cheap 1-month calendars out in January or later.....I really don't think the Fed will deliver a Xmas rate hike, ....but if they did, right in the middle of a liquidity slump, boy howdy we could see some big moves.......but, nah......not gonna do it....

did for 20c, with $20 puts itm had to in front of a day where I might not be able to get back online ----- now of course the market will tank vix bounce....

Market is doing pretty much nothing at the moment.... which is not unusual after yesterday PA, which was a forcing up, lots of short covering... After such a day, usually we have consolidation, like today. Things can change into to close, since today is opex and all... and 3.5 hours to the close. Scalped a bit for a very modest gains, but probably the best idea right now is to sit tight and read a book.

No volatility in the market means hand-sitting for me. I've been in this state since the day before Columbus Day weekend. I hope some cork will pop some time next week. In the mean time, watching my theta decay ... .

sometimes the best trade no trade. when iv is tanking I look for cheap time spreads that will benefit from an iv rise. My biased view is that we won't see another flush of vol until the pre-FOMC jitters come back, b4 the Dec meeting....if not even later

who shoots off $100 sometimes $150+ moves on ER day? Cap'n Kirk's PCLN, that's who - look for mispricing for vert spreads within $100 of $1350 +/-....ER's premarket 11/9...

>50c more than cheapass TF usually pays for anything

That's what I'm thinking ... . But you never know; I've been surprised on repeated occasions with market jitters in response to some media blast on this or that global economic concern (mostly China, of late), so keeping a bit of powder dry ... . In the mean time, I'll piddle with nickel and dime earnings plays that can't burn me too hard if they go awry ... .

Tomorrow, it's IBM. Going a small contract iron condor, Oct 23rd expiry, for a .66 credit. Thing doesn't move much, which will be fine with me for a potential "happy meal" profit.

Later in the week, its AMZN and GOOG, which are hard to pass up. The problem with these two is that they're within 5% of their respective 52-week highs, so they could tank awesomely hard if earnings disappoint, which means ... burn.

Some of the others just plain suck: CMG options are routinely illiquid and you're looking at nickels and dimes on some of the other, lower-priced underlyings like YHOO, EBAY etc. (which means I should probably man up and play them, since if my setup is breached in those cases, I'm less likely to fill my diaper). Just don't like handing over 50% of profits and commissions and fees on some of those smaller profit plays. Then again, those $25-$50 profit plays do add up (if there are enough of them).

60c for a $5 vert is a deal, same as 12c for a $1 vert (if it would fill).....my gut is TSLA will get slapped down at the 11/4 ER, but I would likely put on something both ways

a 10% move to b/e by the end of ER week? maybe 2much 2ask, so I might look at the Nov2 week verts, too

better probs

rad price breaks in the chains are always worth trying to exploit, usually don't fill....

I heart cheap spreads

trying to fill variety pak of cheap vert spreads for the fatass big movers, no luck yet. I think these are easier to fill right at the open but I am just guessing about that....