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EUR/USD: IntraDay Scalping and Short Term Swing Trading Only

  • #521
  • Edited 8:29am Oct 13, 2015 8:18am | Edited 8:29am
Out on EG, 5 pips is enough with G having a cold. Keeping dax till sl or tp though and will think about EU when it reaches the 70s again - don't know wtf it is doing here, sentiment (the only one I watch is in Oanda for extremes 65%-67% retail is usually a turning point to their favor) is still short so it can't be trapping longs.

Think Euro failed now, on it's way to get Sanvulture's tp.

Quoting mahluus
Hmm bear trap forming on the AUD maybe?? {image}
Was watching this just in case. Seems to be making a retrace after 9 days of up. Would make some attempt to long this at arrows lower aiming for .77, unless they say they would cut the rate again.
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  • #522
  • Oct 13, 2015 8:50am Oct 13, 2015 8:50am
Quoting KzX
{quote} One reason for that is a retrace on Dollar to 94.65-70 > EU to the price he mentioned.
This is what I meant
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  • #523
  • Oct 13, 2015 9:12am Oct 13, 2015 9:12am
Quoting KzX
{quote} This is what I meant {image}
this is confusing.. haha i thought u meant 94.65 to 70.00, so thats a drop on dollar and that will make EU go to 1.1414(this is the price he mentioned, right?)..
i didnt know its 94.65 to 94.70.. thats a rise and that will make EU drop..
he said the second one, but also said EU will pump.. lol so confused i was then..

anyway, my TPs just above 1.134.. which is just below DS1 1.1343..
Dont trade like me..
  • #524
  • Oct 13, 2015 9:13am Oct 13, 2015 9:13am
Yeah was strange PA on the AUD, formed a trap, then didnt, then formed a trap, then didnt. Main reason I skipped the trade was each break below support the bears managed to push 2-3 pips lower each time. AUD has now retraced all the way back to the original support so I think the eventual collapse was stops being fired in the other direction. I managed to get in Long close to the lows but closed at B/E unfortunately. I run a hard stop at -12 pips and i move my TP to B/E if price moves through my entry to -6 or lower. Price actually moved -9 past my entry so I adjusted my TP to B/E and was hit on the move back up (-9 was as low as she went).

Funny, seeing a similar setup on EU currently.
  • #525
  • Oct 13, 2015 9:20am Oct 13, 2015 9:20am
self explanatory.
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There is no royal road to anything.
  • #526
  • Oct 13, 2015 9:21am Oct 13, 2015 9:21am
Quoting sanvulture
{quote} this is confusing.. haha i thought u meant 94.65 to 70.00, so thats a drop on dollar and that will make EU go to 1.1414(this is the price he mentioned, right?).. i didnt know its 94.65 to 94.70.. thats a rise and that will make EU drop.. he said the second one, but also said EU will pump.. lol so confused i was then.. anyway, my TPs just above 1.134.. which is just below DS1 1.1343..
No it was 94.70 and EU around 400, that's why I reversed it there.
  • #527
  • Oct 13, 2015 10:10am Oct 13, 2015 10:10am
Sold some dax at 10048, sl 10067, tp 9988. Previous one went well, now need Euro to go up and break 1391.
  • #528
  • Oct 13, 2015 10:34am Oct 13, 2015 10:34am
Quoting KzX
{quote} No it was 94.70 and EU around 400, that's why I reversed it there.
Thats a good trade. Using confluence of other market indicators increases probability of trade.
  • #529
  • Oct 13, 2015 10:44am Oct 13, 2015 10:44am
Quoting sakisf
Sold some dax at 10048, sl 10067, tp 9988. Previous one went well, now need Euro to go up and break 1391.
Hi, i am still trying to learn the connections between equities and forex, due i understand correctly that generally speaking DAX up EUR Down? or have i got it backwards
  • #530
  • Edited 3:30pm Oct 13, 2015 10:58am | Edited 3:30pm
Quoting Amg63
{quote} Hi, i am still trying to learn the connections between equities and forex, due i understand correctly that generally speaking DAX up EUR Down? or have i got it backwards
Not all the time. Esp. not on m1, there they can go together for quite some time. But if one overextends (trends) usually the other will go the other way or stay muted.

That's DAX/EU (daily closes) since the beginning of the year, don't know if it's any useful.
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  • #531
  • Edited 9:24pm Oct 13, 2015 7:50pm | Edited 9:24pm
There was a breakout on multiple regression channels that I saw on 5mn that caused me to reverse to long for the rest of the morning at least until Europe opens or until the trade goes south. Not sure if it's going to toy with 1.14 and drop today, but we'll see how the action goes.

The upper range of 1.135+ has been established for the last couple of sessions here so it could be big volume positioned to take it up a notch. Next large volume sellers will be at 1.1450, unless dollar positive news hits, in which case all these 1.135 and + buyers would be selling at 1.135 at even or a loss, which sits nicely for Sakisf's TPs at 1.1460

As always, good luck with today's session.

PS: This thread has stared to grow with some GREAT postings from serious active traders. Newbies learning from experts, and experts sharing their own viewpoints with other experts. I'm loving the generosity of heart here given toward those who are humble enough to ask and learn without being a nuisance to the pros.

I'll be in the background for most of the part now, if you don't see a single comment from me for more than a week, it means I'm traveling, haven't decided where to yet. In the meantime, will be touching base and if I see any postings that are seriously not belonging here, that poster will be ignored with no questions asked, (already ignored some clueless guy asking about how to install terminal.exe???)

Update: reversed long at BE+2, the PB at 1.14 again says at least some more ranging. Short scalp from 95 now. Moved to BE+1 now.

Last update of day for me, unless there are some postings or comments directed at me,

Back to a long scalp at even now, stop at 2 brokerspreads below previous swing low.
  • #532
  • Edited Oct 14, 2015 12:26am Oct 13, 2015 11:37pm | Edited Oct 14, 2015 12:26am
07:35 Trying a new scalping algo that's been on my mind for months. Buy here at this time 895 offer. I'm actually already long here at a lower price, but just put the algo on chart up a few minutes ago.

Stop at 787, 2 brokerspreads below the recent swing. My actual stop is a bit tighter though.

Or, currently still testing it, but, 3 consecutive closes, at the current calculation of 86 on the 5mn and 1mn chart would also invalidate the trade even if stop was not hit yet, and trigger a reversal.

The algo is pure price action, no indies, no visuals, just maths calculation and recent data history.

07:48 market moved up to 895 bid, so at trading at BE now, moving stop up to 3 pips below reversal trigger stop now at 83

07:49 stop reversal trigger moved up to 87 so moving stop up to 84

08:00 bid as high a 898 before dipping a bit, but did not pierce reversal trigger zone, may still get stopped with a loss, but loss would be minimal, also had opp to take a BE+ticks profit but still seeing how to work with this. Market back to 895 bid now.

Man, wishing I was using this yesterday to get tighter and cleaner and less risky entries. I'm thinking most likely, as it is with these things, it's just beginners luck, needs a lot of further testing, but, I'm liking the potential risk reward scenario...holy crap market is now 928 bid hard. Will see how the data points hold up.

08:10 reversal trigger moved up to 89 here, moving sl to 3p below at 86. now we'll see how the data points are reacting to the market.

08:21 bid as high as 955 moving sl to 90 even, min BE+a few ticks on this one, with very little MAE (maximum adverse excursion, which is what I need).
  • #533
  • Oct 14, 2015 1:44am Oct 14, 2015 1:44am
Long setup boiling. Was sleeping during Asia so missed everything but anyway was stuck in some DJ longs which I just got rid off, might try a long here 1.1402 with sl 1.1391 to start the day. tp the usual

Anyway, bought the top, risking 10 for 60.
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  • #534
  • Edited 2:01am Oct 14, 2015 1:48am | Edited 2:01am
Quoting sakisf
Long setup boiling. Was sleeping during Asia so missed everything but anyway was stuck in some DJ longs which I just got rid off, might try a long here 1.1402 with sl 1.1391 to start the day. tp the usual Anyway, bought the top, risking 10 for 60. {image}
BE + ticks with first algo signal, had I stuck to the pure rules of it, would have still been in the trade. Reversal level was at 90 for 5mn and I moved my SL to 90, we never closed below 90 on the 5 yet after the buy sig so long is still in play

We would need a close on the 5mn below 96 right now to change to sell. Now bid at 029.

I jumped on long again mid signal which is normally a no no, but really testing the validity of this algo's reverse points now, will reverse to short on close on 5mn below 96( CLOSE BELOW 5mn 98 97 now).

Still in trade long, under normal manual sigs, I would have taken profs or loss and a new short around 98 bid, instead still waiting for 5mn close below 97 to close long and go short.
  • #535
  • Edited 2:07am Oct 14, 2015 1:54am | Edited 2:07am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} BE + ticks with first algo signal, had I stuck to the pure rules of it, would have still been in the trade. Reversal level was at 90 for 5mn and I moved my SL to 90, we never closed below 90 on the 5 yet after the buy sig so long is still in play We would need a close on the 5mn below 96 right now to change to sell. Now bid at 029. I jumped on again mid signal, will reverse to short on close on 5mn below 96, 98 now.
It's difficult to go be here instantly. Bears still trying to keep it from escaping. I put be after sl distance equals profit. 98 is short term support for 1m now.

Expected plan for the day is pump EU until US retail sales come out pos and then drop it hard to reload.

1.1436 first stop if 1410 is broken. be now anyway, don't wanna risk London faking. And almost reached first extension. Would expect it to build a base around 1.1410 yesterday high, then tease the bears with some 1.1404 before breaking high.
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  • #536
  • Oct 14, 2015 2:07am Oct 14, 2015 2:07am
Quoting sakisf
{quote} It's difficult to go be here instantly. Bears still trying to keep it from escaping. I put be after sl distance equals profit. 98 is short term support for 1m now. Expected plan for the day is pump EU until US retail sales come out pos and then drop it hard to reload. 1.1436 first stop if 1410 is broken. be now anyway, don't wanna risk London faking.
close below 98 on 5mn is now reversal point for me too although with that quick swing up to 15 bid, that number may change but nice trade!

You are awesome Sakisf, your calls have been brilliant.

close on 5mn below 05 now is the sell point

They are gunning for 50. Watch for reloads at 15 or swing down to 08 and reload up
  • #537
  • Edited 2:20am Oct 14, 2015 2:10am | Edited 2:20am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} close below 98 on 5mn is now reversal point for me too although with that quick swing up to 15 bid, that number may change but nice trade! You are awesome Sakisf, your calls have been brilliant.
If only my trading was like that too

Expected pullbacks, unless they plan to go to 1.1436 first (some old res there) to kill stops directly. No gaps up bar one at 15 and that's good. Will liquidate half now.

Yeah, highest I can go is 1.1449 too. 300% from early Asian swing. Will put my own ooma (out of my ass) fib that will hit 1.1460 right to the point. Will redraw fibs after this leg is done to calculate pullback.

Missed the DAX short there but glad I managed to get out of DJ longs earlier.
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  • #538
  • Oct 14, 2015 2:21am Oct 14, 2015 2:21am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} close below 98 on 5mn is now reversal point for me too although with that quick swing up to 15 bid, that number may change but nice trade! You are awesome Sakisf, your calls have been brilliant. close on 5mn below 05 now is the sell point They are gunning for 50. Watch for reloads at 15 or swing down to 08 and reload up
I probably would have been shaken out on the bar at 10:15 but signal says close below 06 on the 5min to sell, so I'm holding after adding on again mid trade. In hindsight I gotta be more careful and watch the greed and overlev since a close below 06 is at least 10 pips minus from here.

19 bid, I'm really enjoying this beginner's luck on this trade.

reversal zone is now at 08

I got lucky and just happened to catch the morning move of the week....what timing.
  • #539
  • Oct 14, 2015 2:23am Oct 14, 2015 2:23am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} I probably would have been shaken out on the bar at 10:15 but signal says close below 06 on the 5min to sell, so I'm holding after adding on again mid trade. In hindsight I gotta be more careful and watch the greed and overlev since a close below 06 is at least 10 pips minus from here.
Yeah, I am not adding until 1.1436 is hit to have some space for be (1.1418). EG could hold it for a while.
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  • #540
  • Oct 14, 2015 2:32am Oct 14, 2015 2:32am
Had a buy stop at 385. Just looked at it and it has a good price. To close! I'm out. Can't see shit on my mobile. Will pop in later maybe.
Don't get cought off guard, nice calendar.
Edit. Swing started at 395 so 425 Is a good termination point for a scalp.
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