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EUR/USD: IntraDay Scalping and Short Term Swing Trading Only

  • #441
  • Edited 1:12pm Oct 12, 2015 1:00pm | Edited 1:12pm
Shrted AU (again) at 75. Nice divergence on RSI m30.
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  • #442
  • Oct 12, 2015 1:18pm Oct 12, 2015 1:18pm
PA stopped. Closed at 1.1363 and changed sides now, buy 1.1362, sl 1.1355 and tp 1.1396. Will move to be after 1.1369.
  • #443
  • Oct 12, 2015 4:29pm Oct 12, 2015 4:29pm
EU levels for October 13

1.13630
1.13390
1.13220
1.12820
  • #444
  • Edited 9:52pm Oct 12, 2015 5:15pm | Edited 9:52pm
I have a very small 'tester' short to 442 1.12422 right above, if I have it calculated correctly is above today's proj ORL, will double check the projected OR later, first guess, trading down, going back to sleep, burnt from yesterday, woke up to have all my last nights shorts closed at my proj ORmid yesterday, good thing, it could have been ugly. KzX shorting a dollar pair tells me there could be more selling here on EUR too for now.
  • #445
  • Oct 12, 2015 7:06pm Oct 12, 2015 7:06pm
Trading outlook today is basically an extension of yesterday. The levels I used yesterday are less than 2pips lower. If we go up, same story and expectation, if we go down, will trade the signals and levels.

Will try again to:

1) "Try not get locked into an opinion (my own or anyone else's) so much that I'm locked into a trade that I shouldn't be carrying".

2) Will not fall in love with my position simply because I need it to work. This ain't a long term romance or a marriage.

3) Trade the action, not the expectation. Be willing to discard any opinion and expectation at any time based on what the market is saying to me right NOW.

Whatever happened yesterday, whether trading positive or negative yesterday, today is a new start from zero.

Scalper's Credo - Pipologist FF 10/2015


PS going back to sleep now, my head is still foggy from staying up way too late yesterday.
  • #446
  • Oct 12, 2015 7:12pm Oct 12, 2015 7:12pm
Quoting Pipologist
Trading outlook today is basically an extension of yesterday. The levels I used yesterday are less than 2pips lower. If we go up, same story and expectation, if we go down, will trade the signals and levels. Will try again to: 1) "Try not get locked into an opinion (my own or anyone else's) so much that I'm locked into a trade that I shouldn't be carrying". 2) Will not fall in love with my position simply because I need it to work. This ain't a long term romance or a marriage. 3) Trade the action, not the expectation. Be willing to discard any opinion...
  • #447
  • Oct 12, 2015 7:44pm Oct 12, 2015 7:44pm
Quoting Pipologist
Trading outlook today is basically an extension of yesterday. The levels I used yesterday are less than 2pips lower. If we go up, same story and expectation, if we go down, will trade the signals and levels. Will try again to: 1) "Try not get locked into an opinion (my own or anyone else's) so much that I'm locked into a trade that I shouldn't be carrying". 2) Will not fall in love with my position simply because I need it to work. This ain't a long term romance or a marriage. 3) Trade the action, not the expectation. Be willing to discard any opinion...
Totally missed a minor buy sig this morning. Had hedged early morning short, was staring at screen, signal said...probably a good time to buy or release short side...looked at it...said...ehhh...whatever. 5 minutes later, signal was good, virtually no draw down on the entry...still hedged with a locked in loss to dig out of later. The trade volume is super minimal on this one, so it's not the money gained/lost, but the concept of not following my plan always gets me and I sometimes wonder why I do what I do, or don't. What I've learned by not doing what I planned. Nothing.

Need more sleep. Will check in later. As always good luck today everyone.
  • #448
  • Edited 9:49pm Oct 12, 2015 9:15pm | Edited 9:49pm
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} Totally missed a minor buy sig this morning. Had hedged early morning short, was staring at screen, signal said...probably a good time to buy or release short side...looked at it...said...ehhh...whatever. 5 minutes later, signal was good, virtually no draw down on the entry...still hedged with a locked in loss to dig out of later. The trade volume is super minimal on this one, so it's not the money gained/lost, but the concept of not following my plan always gets me and I sometimes wonder why I do what I do, or don't. What I've learned by...
Bias is towards short today compared to yesterday. They're trying to hold 50 now but really tried to hold proj ORL of 435 1.1242.2 earlier. The late evening yesterday to this morning now appears to basically be a mirror upside down image of yesterday. Yesterday at this time long trades were gaining more ground than shorts, this morning the opposite holds true. Looks like a continuation of late yesterday's selling the bounces. 5min chart looks unstable right now, near the bottom of a run down and a wedge/pennant, not good, unless of course, you're holding shorts above it. It's trying to break above it, but the slope of the DT is steeper and has weight from yesterday. We've all seen these before, a breakout to the upside is possible, but *usually* short lived and sees more selling on the bounce. This confirms the 4 hour chart KzX showed yesterday that was turning down. Unless there's some news anticipated, look for TL breaks below 45 and a confirmation run for the mid to low 1.12s after it breaks down under 38, unless some massive buying shows up all of a sudden, the intraday play for me, at this minute is DOWN, this could change at any minute, but it's the wave I see coming.

Update: if you extend the 5min or 15min out and draw a lower TL from the bottoms going back to Thurs and Fri last week, some swing/longer term traders might say we are still in a rising wedge and it's very bullish, however, if you look at that TL, it looks like it was violated at 03:15 this morning. If was a pure TL follower, I could say that we may not see the light of day for longs for the rest of the session, unless some remarkable buying here occurs.
  • #449
  • Oct 12, 2015 10:02pm Oct 12, 2015 10:02pm
Critical scalping error!! Do not do this while trading. I seem to do this at least once every couple of weeks, especially when I'm tired and not fully alert...

last time: meant to buy/sell 8.0 and instead order filled with .8, and then when I went to hedge it, did the reverse!

this morning: meant to add on with .10 to several other orders, instead clicked 1.0...filled and now got to find a way to trade out of it. it's not like a store where you can return it with the receipt and say, I bought the wrong size
  • #450
  • Oct 13, 2015 12:04am Oct 13, 2015 12:04am
Quoting Pipologist
Critical scalping error!! Do not do this while trading. I seem to do this at least once every couple of weeks, especially when I'm tired and not fully alert... last time: meant to buy/sell 8.0 and instead order filled with .8, and then when I went to hedge it, did the reverse! this morning: meant to add on with .10 to several other orders, instead clicked 1.0...filled and now got to find a way to trade out of it. it's not like a store where you can return it with the receipt and say, I bought the wrong size
You trade 8 lots, nice! I also make stupid mistakes when I'm extremely tired. Trying to avoid that mistake.

A/U short from yesterday hit TP@ 7307 some time ago.
  • #451
  • Oct 13, 2015 12:12am Oct 13, 2015 12:12am
Quoting KzX
{quote} You trade 8 lots, nice! I also make stupid mistakes when I'm extremely tired. Trying to avoid that mistake. A/U short from yesterday hit TP@ 7307 some time ago.
Waaaayyy overleveraged for me. Most I traded manually was 12 at once in USDJPY and SPX futures. On one of my previous EA's I had .20 x 150 going but that was a mistake too in coding. It should've had only 18 open positions at once. A healthy norm for me is 1.0 lot, last night had 1.3 going, right now, I'm sitting on wrong side entry with a bit more, overlev'd and it doesn't feel good. TP is in now but just trying to find a place to get out safely.

Just a heads up, going to start slowing down number and freq of postings here for me. It's massively difficult to go back and forth with multiple live positions on and give commentary too. The commentary is mostly to keep me awake and lucid in my thinking, but it also causes me to miss signals while I'm babbling on typing. I also as I've mentioned before, really need to resume coding for MT4 as well, which has been neglected.

I'll check in regularly but not multiple times an hour.
  • #452
  • Edited 12:44am Oct 13, 2015 12:34am | Edited 12:44am
Bit late, but I managed to do this during sleep. It was too close to 1.1341 which was a peak in the profile to miss it. Previously had a buy at previous daily close had s/l to 1.1350.

Closed at 74. PA stopped. Will wait for LO to get better prices if it goes back to daily open.
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  • #453
  • Oct 13, 2015 12:47am Oct 13, 2015 12:47am
Quoting sakisf
Bit late, but I managed to do this during sleep. It was too close to 1.1341 which was a peak in the profile to miss it. Previously had a buy at previous daily close had s/l to 1.1350. Closed at 74. PA stopped. Will wait for LO to get better prices if it goes back to daily open. {image} {image}
Nice chart and nice trading yesterday. Thank you. Was going to ask you at what point do you concede the trade or TP, but you answered it already. PA.
  • #454
  • Edited 1:11am Oct 13, 2015 12:56am | Edited 1:11am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} Nice chart and nice trading yesterday. Thank you. Was going to ask you at what point do you concede the trade or TP, but you answered it already. PA.
Either pa when it is reluctant to proceeed or valleys in the price profile as they turn price violently. Waiting 1362 now to reenter if I am close to the PC. And one gamble before leaving for work (it's short). Got stopped, reentered a bit higher. sl for both is 30% of winnings of earlier long.
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  • #455
  • Edited 2:41am Oct 13, 2015 1:52am | Edited 2:41am
Quoting sanvulture
{quote} well, the lot size was smaller and i can hold these for now.. and its just 25pips below where i can close them all in break even.. and my 2nd and 3rd shorts were opened to average out my 1st short.. but when the price reached that level, i got greedy and wanted to lock them in profit.. anyway, i'll close them if price goes above 1.14 and stays there.. i hope tmrw's asia session get EU lower, so i can close them..
Did you finally close? PA on the 30m seems like it wants to break yesterday high. Missed that 1362... flat for now until 1394 or 135x. Buying here 1.1390, sl @1.1385, be @1.1403, tp @1.1460. Revised sl to 1.1380 due to a small gap @1.1383. Seems to have potential to take out the res at 1.1391x.

30 mins later and still denying to pop. Might move to be just now. Giving it 5 min (to 10:45) to hit 1.14.
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  • #456
  • Oct 13, 2015 2:43am Oct 13, 2015 2:43am
Quoting sakisf
{quote} Did you finally close? PA on the 30m seems like it wants to break yesterday high. Missed that 1362... flat for now until 1394 or 135x. Buying here 1.1390, sl @1.1385, be @1.1403, tp @1.1460. Revised sl to 1.1380 due to a small gap @1.1383. Seems to have potential to take out the res at 1.1391x. {image}
Yesterday's theory was a day too early/late for me. Right oulook, wrong timing. I overleveraged shorts today and paid dearly for not hedging them this time. Did not expect another run to 88, I was expecting a fake, but instead I allowed myself to get plowed there, didn't hedge it like last night and misread critical and obvious PA up/down around the 50 mark, should have conceded at 60 but sold more there. I'm long now but not at half the price or volume I should be. They are not pullingback hard like yesterday...will ride until the sell stops start hitting. As I type this we are 3 ticks from 1.14 and will pierce it soon, pierced myself today. How ironic.

Lesson to ingrain: don't hold trades beyond your pain level. Find a level or an out that you are happy with your trades good or bad...acknowledge your pain threshold on the trade and honor it, or else the market will find it for you.
  • #457
  • Oct 13, 2015 2:48am Oct 13, 2015 2:48am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} Yesterday's theory was a day too early/late for me. Right oulook, wrong timing. I overleveraged shorts today and paid dearly for not hedging them this time. Did not expect another run to 88, I was expecting a fake, but instead I allowed myself to get plowed there, didn't hedge it like last night and misread critical and obvious PA up/down around the 50 mark, should have conceded at 60 but sold more there. I'm long now but not at half the price or volume I should be. They are not pullingback hard like yesterday...will ride until the sell...
True, I am always thinking the same until the point I get that trade which I think is excellent then refusing to let go and adding more and more until the blow up At least 1m gives a better way out and actually makes me more patient than 30m/4h before adding positions.

Moved sl to be now for that 1.1391 buy. Will not stop it till tp or sl.
  • #458
  • Oct 13, 2015 2:49am Oct 13, 2015 2:49am
Quoting sakisf
{quote} Did you finally close? PA on the 30m seems like it wants to break yesterday high. Missed that 1362... flat for now until 1394 or 135x. Buying here 1.1390, sl @1.1385, be @1.1403, tp @1.1460. Revised sl to 1.1380 due to a small gap @1.1383. Seems to have potential to take out the res at 1.1391x. 30 mins later and still denying to pop. Might move to be just now. Giving it 5 min (to 10:45) to hit 1.14. {image}
thanks for asking.. but nope.. i'm a bad trader.. and luck kicked me in the a$$ today.. when price got down to my BE at asia session, i was asleep and it was up again when i woke up.. and i also expected a dollar sell off at london open where i planned to place a bigger lot size(0.1) to hedge my shorts, but my net connection F-ed up 2 minutes before that and just now started working..
also i shorted(0.01) just above monthly R1, bcoz it resisted yesterday.. which the price already blew through and climbing..
Dont trade like me..
  • #459
  • Oct 13, 2015 2:52am Oct 13, 2015 2:52am
open at 1.1410
close at 1.1391


Setup of scalpers
Nothing is Perfect... Every Body is Right...
  • #460
  • Oct 13, 2015 2:55am Oct 13, 2015 2:55am
Quoting sanvulture
{quote} thanks for asking.. but nope.. i'm a bad trader.. and luck kicked me in the a$$ today.. when price got down to my BE at asia session, i was asleep and it was up again when i woke up.. and i also expected a dollar sell off at london open where i planned to place a bigger lot size(0.1) to hedge my shorts, but my net connection F-ed up 2 minutes before that and just now started working.. also i shorted(0.01) just above monthly R1, bcoz it resisted yesterday.. which the price already blew through and climbing..
If you can hold dd until 1.1460 then don't add more sells - nor hedge, sl a bit above that because if it leaves from there then 1.1520 would be next.

Not much between here and January POC.
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