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EUR/USD: IntraDay Scalping and Short Term Swing Trading Only

  • #341
  • Edited Oct 12, 2015 12:26am Oct 11, 2015 11:20pm | Edited Oct 12, 2015 12:26am
Quoting ch0c0laeva
Bonus - 1.1413 , 1.1438 , 1.1445 The highest price (12Oct) - 1.1405 1.1393 1.1383 1.1379 midlle 1.1355 1.1348 1.1334 1.1321 1.1311 The lowest price (12Oct) - 1.1304 Bonus - 1.1294 , 1.1278
I'm liking the bonus pips.

I just moved my swing TP to 1.1490 I figure if it rocks and I don't trail too close, and the long ball hitters are all in the game today (the daily range could expand to there). It's not unheard of. But before that we'll need to crack this morning's actual ORH and Friday's just a small run up away.

There's a preFrankfurt skirmish going on at 1.13735 which was my projected ORH 5mn TL ever so slightly getting steeper up.....but still needs to really crack that upper suppression line this morning.

Was so tempted to add more at that doji/hammer at 8:05 on 1min. Was half a second and half a pip from clicking. I have enough, but wasn't convinced yet and wanted some more on the little dip. Market may surprise me as it always does and slam me for a loss here, but order window is open ready to lock in hedge if necessary.

Have a feeling (hope?) that the sellers are going to get out of the way next run up on this one, unless massive sell algos kick in at once I would not want to be on the short side (if you are and you turn out to be right, I want YOUR crystal ball).

Algos are still trying to sell at 735? When the buys push it up to 80 watch what happens .... they start buying....the last week's high gets hit and then more buying and then some quick profit taking. Before more buyers come in.

I could be TOTALLY mis-reading this one. But, so hoping I'm not.
  • #342
  • Oct 12, 2015 12:33am Oct 12, 2015 12:33am
OR 350-380, so Friday's extension.
Second option is 60-90, it needs to start moving to confirm.
  • #343
  • Oct 12, 2015 12:34am Oct 12, 2015 12:34am
Bought 1.1373. If it goes to 1.1388 I expect buy stops (higher than prev day top) to be triggered and put my half tp target at 1.1403. [email protected], so 2:1. (moving against me now, will close at red arrow if there is no fight).

2nd tp at 1.1460 with sl moved to 1.1386 after 1st tp.
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  • #344
  • Oct 12, 2015 12:41am Oct 12, 2015 12:41am
have been buying various smaller portions on dips here make the ***** pay when they decide to take it up again. would have to see massive selling to force me out of this or to call a hedge in.
  • #345
  • Edited 1:24am Oct 12, 2015 12:45am | Edited 1:24am
Quoting sakisf
Bought 1.1373. If it goes to 1.1388 I expect buy stops (higher than prev day top) to be triggered and put my half tp target at 1.1403. [email protected], so 2:1. (moving against me now, will close at red arrow if there is no fight). 2nd tp at 1.1460 with sl moved to 1.1386 after 1st tp. {image}
basically what I was doing too, but decided to leave the TPs alone till I was green and needed to leave the monitor. right now looking at a place to buy more or unload some if necessary.

Anyone ever see the video on Paul Tudor Jones on YouTube? The portion I remember the most...The guy likes to mask his moves by running in large orders in the opposite direction and he likes to do it early pre morning Europe. Some mornings I just feel, a guy like him is behind movements like this morning.

The scalpers are not easily giving it up this morning. Although they've tried to push it down a bit, it has not budged more than net 5 for them, scalpers and swing traders holding see the ripe fruit at 88 and are holding for the harvest. We still have about 10 to 15 min to go before the 9am rush hour kicks in.

All this means is that it's gonna be like a can or bottle popping open with a little extra shake before it's opened.

Whoever is suppressing it is really trying to buy more at a lower price. This thing is going to pop hard.

It might be setting up for a V spike down and then up. Watch out.

It's starting to get oversold. They have some TL breaking to do if they intend to keep selling, but eventually they will step in and start covering their own sells.
  • #346
  • Oct 12, 2015 1:26am Oct 12, 2015 1:26am
man, your posts are scaring me..
i have shorts from last week which i expect to close today or this week.. it was small lot size, so i didnt put SL(i shorted GU at the same time, it hit my SL and then came back down 20p more than my TP, so i let EU run).. i have a sell from friday's top too.. when it came down between the 2 orders, i was at break even, but i wanted to lock them in profit..
but today, seeing how you all are screaming popping, i will close all shorts once it reaches that break even point.. and i woke up late.. haha
Have a good day y'all..
Dont trade like me..
  • #347
  • Oct 12, 2015 1:31am Oct 12, 2015 1:31am
Quoting sanvulture
man, your posts are scaring me.. i have shorts from last week which i expect to close today or this week.. it was small lot size, so i didnt put SL(i shorted GU at the same time, it hit my SL and then came back down 20p more than my TP, so i let EU run).. i have a sell from friday's top too.. when it came down between the 2 orders, i was at break even, but i wanted to lock them in profit.. but today, seeing how you all are screaming popping, i will close all shorts once it reaches that break even point.. and i woke up late.. haha Have a good day...
You gotta trade what YOU see and KNOW. So far, your trades are right, and on the open trades I have right now I am about 8 pips wrong.

Traditional TA right now, would tell me to be short, but I've seen TA fail so badly near interim tops and bottoms, and the followers of such, get burned badly, so I'm in as long as I can hold the line.

The second I posted, some of the popping I was expecting has/had begun, let's see how it continues...

There are numerous interesting upper wicks being formed on the 1 and 5min candles. A cluster of them in a short time, which indicates, buying and then quick selling pressure. It's a sign of one of two things....1) Large holders trying to unload at the best price 2) large buyers trying to buy more at the lowest prices they can get. We have both going on right now. Since it all seems very controlled and deliberate, I would guess *dream* it's a hedge fund, or one party doing it, getting as much in before they decide to let it run.
  • #348
  • Oct 12, 2015 1:39am Oct 12, 2015 1:39am
[quote=Pipologist;8534969]{quote} You gotta trade what YOU see and KNOW.
  • #349
  • Oct 12, 2015 1:55am Oct 12, 2015 1:55am
[quote=alf909;8534976]
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} You gotta trade what YOU see and KNOW.
Wild guess here. I don't know this for sure...

Whoever was behind selling this morning will turn around and start covering and then buying, unless news comes out for selling.

They could try again to sell, but if they did it on their own without a mass of other participants, they'd be a lone wolf in an open market now. There has been buying and supporting against their sells this morning, no hard fighting back yet, but even the few scalpers here, who let their levels be known, have not caved in yet because the sellers couldn't reach those levels and I would guess that most scalpers are trading with similar SR levels. So eventually there will be an imbalance of price. The sellers realizing their selling is not making them any more pips, so what else to do....(1) wait for other sellers to join them in new/more selling (2) wait for news so that selling is biased for them (3) start buying, realizing as we get closer to 88ish and hit it, the possibility and likelihood of the market following through with buy stops at 85 / 90 become more achievable.

It's a wait and see what happens game now.
  • #350
  • Oct 12, 2015 2:01am Oct 12, 2015 2:01am
Just got to work and reopened platform. So far sl is intact. I don't trust the first 2 minutes of London so will let it go and then close if 3rd is bear too.
  • #351
  • Oct 12, 2015 2:04am Oct 12, 2015 2:04am
[quote=alf909;8534976]
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} You gotta trade what YOU see and KNOW.
Just to add to the conversation of trading what you see. This is what I am seeing on the EU, looking at a bullish gartley. However I am short on an aggressive "C".
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Damn The Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead!
  • #352
  • Oct 12, 2015 2:08am Oct 12, 2015 2:08am
Quoting Pipologist
Quoting alf909
{quote} Wild guess here. I don't know this for sure... Whoever was behind selling this morning will turn around and start covering and then buying, unless news comes out for selling. They could try again to sell, but if they did it on their own without a mass of other participants, they'd be a lone wolf in an open market now. There has been buying and supporting against their sells this morning, no hard fighting back yet, but even the few scalpers here, who let their levels be known, have not caved in yet because the sellers
...
You're right at the expense of his statements, to trade what is on the schedule at the moment, rather than something that invents fragile brain))
  • #353
  • Oct 12, 2015 2:09am Oct 12, 2015 2:09am
Quoting sakisf
Just got to work and reopened platform. So far sl is intact. I don't trust the first 2 minutes of London so will let it go and then close if 3rd is bear too.
From what I saw, yours was just under what I had projected for ORmid which they would have to breach, in order for most to cave in for now. There was a key trade last week when I caved here and regretted it, KzX even replied, I'd be careful here. So, I'm letting it play out as well. As it stands a slight run up here on the 5min would validate a potential V spike in progress.

Anyway, I'm going to sign off for awhile. My mind is telling me, "stop talking and start trading". I bypassed 2 minor sells that I could have bagged 5p each on while holding this long out of not trusting the signals and staying *too* long biased.

Good luck all with the current trades....long or short!
  • #354
  • Oct 12, 2015 2:45am Oct 12, 2015 2:45am
On 1.1388, sl to be (1.1373) & 50% off at 1.1403 with sl for the rest moved to 1.1387. Gonna leave it run to 1.1460 or stop.

Initial s/l still intact below daily open, at least London is doing ok, keeping up their Friday trend. Only worrying thing is that EG needs a retrace of Friday (too steep) - small or big - and keeps EU muted at the highs. Hope GU breaks out soon above 1.5380 to make the retrace leaving EU intact. Missed that GU buying at DO
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  • #355
  • Edited 3:02am Oct 12, 2015 2:51am | Edited 3:02am
Quoting sakisf
On 1.1388, sl to be (1.1373) & 50% off at 1.1403 with sl for the rest moved to 1.1387. Gonna leave it run to 1.1460 or stop. Initial s/l still intact below daily open, at least London is doing ok, keeping up their Friday trend. {image} {image}
1.1460 gives it about 100 p range from today's low assuming it holds. Nice round number and pretty common lately. I'm sure they'll be takers at 60 and 90p before then, but hope it gets there for you. Was thinking about leaving some there for that too.

I love it how they're toying with 1.1380 right now. They really don't think they can hold that line and invoke selling there do they? Bring it on if so...

LOL. Now that 80 is breached...See what happens around 88, maybe a little pb and all kinds of buy / sell stops flying...my guess the bigger sell stops will try to hold 1.14 but even then they'd have to push it back down today to make it work for them today.

Just moved all to min BE+1 on 8 different buys at different prices. They just took two.
  • #356
  • Oct 12, 2015 3:09am Oct 12, 2015 3:09am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} 1.1460 gives it about 100 p range from today's low assuming it holds. Nice round number and pretty common lately. I'm sure they'll be takers at 60 and 90p before then, but hope it gets there for you. Was thinking about leaving some there for that too. I love it how they're toying with 1.1380 right now. They really don't think they can hold that line and invoke selling there do they? Bring it on if so...
If bulls can't take 1.1387 (vacuum price) then it will turn down eventually, pointing 1.1325 or so. If 1.1387 is gone, there could be some consolidation around 1.1400-05 and then breakout to next vacuum 1.145x before next decision. Not much to do for me unless price goes to any of these levels for going to opposite side since I already made an impulse buy at wrong timing. I don't take opposite positions / hedges of my daily bias unless DO is breached 2-3 hours after LO because I then do the crappy things (move sl, add more, eventually blow 50% of account ).

I don't follow chart patterns anymore, but there is a H&S on 1m.
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  • #357
  • Edited 3:24am Oct 12, 2015 3:12am | Edited 3:24am
I just took all off TPd and reversed at 771 with a little order, should have packed more...15m was getting top heavy

They could be looking to reload at/under the projected ORH but I'll wait until the 15m recoils to start buying again, which it could do in just few minutes if I didn't call this right.

Could this be a mid day london morning fog, I mean fake out? everyone's looking for 88, we only got a half way up there. They're either loading up again or taking it down, 73, 66, 58 key levels I'm staring out now.

I have some very tight SL placed on these sells, if they come back for them, it could be reloading longs, otherwise, they've lost interest and we're heading back down, but we still have a long way to go before proj ORMid of 58

guess what, they came back for them so I bailed on the shorts and look another long at a lower price than some of my previous other longs.
  • #358
  • Oct 12, 2015 3:23am Oct 12, 2015 3:23am
I'm thinking.. maybe they will invoke selling after the price reach the nearest 1.1393 or 1.1405.. after the price hit, maybe it will take some time for the current price playing in cool area 1.1393 till 1.1379..

As for now,
My experiment buy at 1.1386.. hoping it will hit 1.1393 in 3 more hours..

or

the price play between 1.1393 and 1.1379 in this 3 more hours and maybe they'll start invoke sell in or after this time.. (The nearest hot sell price is after 1.1365)
  • #359
  • Oct 12, 2015 3:30am Oct 12, 2015 3:30am
So far have only taken one small hit on a minor hedge that I released on the previous swing up...current order is above BE, hopefully can ride this one closer to targets. Feeling pretty on it right now. Hopefully won't get cocky or desperate for more later. I'll keep swinging for the fences but be grateful and take a bunt if I need to.

SanVulture, you still short? Because if they take out that upper wick of the 5mn candle less than an hour ago...
  • #360
  • Oct 12, 2015 3:33am Oct 12, 2015 3:33am
S NZD/USD@ 6733
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