Fibonacci and 50 bucks

In this thread I will only use Fibonacci and diagonal trend lines, nothing else....well, maybe those little emoticon dudes.

Big picture will have high/low points of the previous 2 weeks...this will be the first set of fibs....in slate gray.

Intermediate picture will contain the high/low points of the previous week...this will be the second set of fibs...in white.

Trading day will contain the high/low points from the previous trading day taken from 10 pm MST to 10 am MST...in black.

Daily chart gives me the big visual, 4 hour chart is stable but I usually trade off the 1 hour chart and sometimes will monitor the 15 minute for either pullbacks during a run or when watching for a specific candle when I anticipate a reversal.

Two things to remember here...the importance of the 50% level and what type of candles are forming...

Bottom line? No indicators boys, nothing but price action.

BTW, a Trade Explorer has been attached starting with $50 and everything is visible to the public. No games.

Also, I promise not to go crazy and change everything in 2 weeks and add a bunch of garbage indicators.

I'm gonna give a few examples of what you guys can expect in the coming weeks using a few charts from this weeks trading.

The first one is for the 2 weeks high/low points and the second chart is how the price reacted to the Fib levels.

So the chart with 2 weeks worth of data, not so impressive but still need it. But this one with the previous weeks high/low points? Very good.

Looks like a messed that first chart up...gray lines = 2 weeks...white lines = 1 week

What are you looking at/for in this chart? Look at the 50% level (in white) and see how price reacts to it. Once it closes over that, the trend is up and we go long in our day trades.

Sorry about that picture, you couldn't see the retracement levels...

That's enough for now. BTW, the credit of the fibs goes to Mr Fibonacci, bobokus and simoneg.

I'll post again Sunday night. Have a good weekend.

good idea.

please explain clearer.

thanks

ocd, if there you are using anything beyond a line chart, you are using indicators. Candles, Fib lines, and trend lines are all indicators.

That said, you are on to something very old and still very powerful. WD Gann talked about 50% retracements between significant highs and lows. A confluence of these will very often stop price in it's tracks because there are enough traders with capital to notice this.

If you stay disciplined, you will do quite well.

Congrats and waiting to see more useful posts.
I am a fan of fibs and i trade without any other lines.. High to low with entry on 61.8, tp 23. or 88 reversed and sl 78.6. Win ratio is about 50% but considering RR it is making pips.

Good luck with the tread and subscribed.

Mods,

I screwed up. This thread should've been put under the "Trading Journals" section not "Trading Discussion.

I apologize. Would you please move it there?


Thank you

Well, it's a new week so let's get the chart set up. First fib will be the high and low points for the last 2 weeks (in slate gray, choose your own color preference).

Now I will add the high/low points from last week (in white). Now why is this one special? Because the fib levels of 134% and 155% will be the targets of the big boys this week. Since the candles have opened ABOVE the 50% level for the week, expect it to test the 50% level and try to hit the 134% level...both could happen this week.

Here we go. BTW, now there are two sets of fibs on the chart, slate gray and white.

I'm sitting here looking at the chart with 2 weeks worth of data on it (slate gray Fibs) and I'm calling it now. The 50% level will probably be tested...1.52442 ish and then a strong rebound.

I could be wrong because the GBPUSD is like trying to lasso a tornado but whatever.

I just got home so let's take a look at what just happened. Using the 1 hr chart with Fibs in slate gray (2 weeks) and white (last weeks high and low) AND the third set of Fibs in black (our intraday) which we trade off.

We use the high and low points of 12:00 am to 11:00 pm EST (in my case its 10 pm to 9 am MST) closed candles to get that intraday Fib.

So what happened?

The 50% was tested on our intraday (in black) chart. It was breached and then became resistance. Dream entry would've been at the 38.2% but good entry to short would be at the 20% down to the -34%...but it spiked hard and fast down to the -55% which was pretty cool.

IMO, this is what's coming...testing of the 50% Weekly support.

So what? It's a Monday and perhaps the volatility is limited to the 20% level as resistance and it bounces between that and the -34% or it really tries to test the 50% but it should fail.

I'm thinking tonight the play is short at 20% and set target at -34% even though its already been done.

Edit: I just looked at it again and diagonal trendline has been broken. This thing may try to test the Weekly Support tonight and get it out of the way early in the week. Anyone notice the inverted head and shoulders pattern on the 4 hr chart? Not a perfect one but it's there.

Okay...so I passed out before the party last night and woke up to see what I thought would take place did in fact take place. Weekly support was tested but it took it further and hit the 2 week fib level of 38.2%. Notice the 2 candles for the reversals...Now we are closing above the 50% level so its off to the races.

Long positions will be my focus.

So here's the deal. I don't know why but my Trade Explorer is not synched to this thread. The account numbers don't match...wth? Anyway, I set a buy stop at 1.52877 with an exit set at 1.53275.

My reasoning? The weekly 50% level was tested and held so now it is support. My buy stop was set just past the weekly 61.8 level and will exit just at the weekly 80% level.

Why those points? My 1 hr chart will show a diagonal resistance level just above the intraday 80% level. It will hit the lower prices if does go to that resistance line so I might as well be in the trade thru that range. Here's a picture...

Speaking of price action...let's check out the candles on a 4 hr chart of GBPUSD.

Bullish enough for you?

I'm kind of bummed out because this Trade Explorer isn't right and I won't have time to get it fixed for the next week or so. So, we'll do the old fashioned "paper trading" method for now.

LAST NIGHT's action...I entered a long position at 1.52877 and had the Take Profit set at 1.53275 (it exited at 1.53278)...positive gain of 40 pips.

So what happened? Weekly fibs and fibs from 2 weeks ago 50% support lines were breached yesterday. They became resistance. Then last night those 50% levels were broken through again and became SUPPORT. Anything above the 50% level is now bullish, specifically if the 50% level is holding. In this case last night, the 61.8% level from the fibs of 2 weeks ago (in slate gray) was acting as SUPPORT...that's very bullish to me.

I drew that diagonal trend line using conservative points for "Tonight's resistance" and it was broken through...pretty cool boys.