Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 318 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #6,341
  • Oct 9, 2015 6:14am Oct 9, 2015 6:14am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} I don't understand... a peak is peak when it's a peak, there are very strict rules for that, very mechanical and methodical! Cheers, Alfonso
There are? I thought you said they just have to look "obvious?" Are these rules a part of the private community? Thus far everything I have read about the trend lines
simply states that you connect the last two peaks or valleys and that they have to look "obvious." Thats very subjective as to what is obvious. Sorry for the confusion.

Thanks,
Stockguy
  • #6,342
  • Oct 9, 2015 6:34am Oct 9, 2015 6:34am
hi alfonso
by the attached image, the red supply zone number 1 is valid after the broke of ascending trendline.
is the supply zone number 2 is valid too? or its just a "potential CP pattern zone"?

Sants
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 28 KB
  • #6,343
  • Oct 9, 2015 3:41pm Oct 9, 2015 3:41pm
Quoting Stockguy
{quote} There are? I thought you said they just have to look "obvious?" Are these rules a part of the private community? Thus far everything I have read about the trend lines simply states that you connect the last two peaks or valleys and that they have to look "obvious." Thats very subjective as to what is obvious. Sorry for the confusion. Thanks, Stockguy
There are videos that talk about how to draw trendlines, rules are strict... obvious means obvious else consider it a CP or nothing. It's not subjective at all, there are a couple of traders I know that have created an indicator that draws them automatically, so you can imagine rules are very mechanical. See the latest post on GBP/USD, that's how trendlines are drawn, no secret hidden to anyboby or only shared with a few.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,344
  • Oct 9, 2015 3:42pm Oct 9, 2015 3:42pm
Quoting Sants
hi alfonso by the attached image, the red supply zone number 1 is valid after the broke of ascending trendline. is the supply zone number 2 is valid too? or its just a "potential CP pattern zone"? Sants {image}
Monthly supply 2 took out a demand area... which one? Can you tell me? You are not applying the rules
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,345
  • Oct 9, 2015 10:37pm Oct 9, 2015 10:37pm
Quoting Sants
{quote} Hi Alfonso yeah its different but actually im looking for insight of essence i mean, can we draw the second or even third trendine connecting valleys to valleys eventhough the previous valleys is terminated (aside from HTF levels) thats one of my big problem here and...
I don't think I understand you well. Once the second valley is valid, we connect Trendline with previous valley. If second valley is terminated then Trendline is no longer valid on that timeframe and you would need to switch to a a bigger timeframe and draw a Trendline there.That's the essence of realignment. Maybe you are referring to something elseCheers,Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,346
  • Oct 9, 2015 10:39pm Oct 9, 2015 10:39pm
Quoting Solomon1a
Hello Alfonso, Sorry for not much active on forum because busy in family business i do not get much time, but trading your rules always giving me profits, its been 3 years now i am in profit. Mostly i only trade Dow US30 long term only, i do not trade Forex currencies. i would want you to share your overview on US30 please. it would be grateful. THANKS
I won't be available for a few days so I can't upload a chart of us30, I guess you are referring to NASDAQ aren't you?Cheers,Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,347
  • Oct 12, 2015 6:16pm Oct 12, 2015 6:16pm
Want to share this video I just watched. Advice is to always use stop loss.

Inserted Video
  • #6,348
  • Oct 12, 2015 10:42pm Oct 12, 2015 10:42pm
Alfonso ,Hello, tell me where I'm wrong on the display indicated that I do not have 50% of the candle?
Regards
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-10-13 07_38_15-Custom Indicator - RectangleReader.png Size: 78 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-10-13 07_38_46-Custom Indicator - RectangleReader.png Size: 80 KB
my dream Australia.....
  • #6,349
  • Oct 14, 2015 10:33pm Oct 14, 2015 10:33pm
Hi Alfonso
Im there's an indicator for showing the how high/low in the curve at right top like you did. am i doing it right within those zone? My consideration is your rules for curves is supply and demand zone in control. The supply zone which is in control marked as green zone and the supply which is not in control marked by as red zones and the demand zone which is in control marked as grey zone.

The curve levels shows within demand zone in control with supply zone not in control within the current price is 87% in daily
The curve levels shows within demand zone in control with supply zone in control within the current price is 47% in daily

which is correct and if it is the other one also acceptable?

Sants
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 68 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 63 KB
  • #6,350
  • Oct 15, 2015 4:25am Oct 15, 2015 4:25am
What is a supply or demand in control? It's the previous fresh or unfresh SD area which has not yet been broken (taken out).
Used up levels. Price has pulled back to level several times.


Alfonso/ Can you explain to me? What's the difference between supply or demand in control and HTF Used up levels(retested several times).?
  • #6,351
  • Oct 15, 2015 5:09am Oct 15, 2015 5:09am
Hi Alfonso;
First thank you for starting this great thread, I have been trading Demand and Supply in the past with very mixed results and have been taken a break from trading. Done a lot of the mistakes you mention in your videos and in the intro.

I like the clear rules and want to learn more as it makes sense to me. Whilst I am learning this material and start practising I have some questions regarding levels, which I have written on the chart. I hope you you don't mind answering the very basic questions.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $EURJPY (Weekly) Week 34_2008 - Week 39_2015 - Question.jpg Size: 220 KB

Thanks
  • #6,352
  • Oct 15, 2015 5:59am Oct 15, 2015 5:59am
Quoting Sants
Hi Alfonso Im there's an indicator for showing the how high/low in the curve at right top like you did. am i doing it right within those zone? My consideration is your rules for curves is supply and demand zone in control. The supply zone which is in control marked as green zone and the supply which is not in control marked by as red zones and the demand zone which is in control marked as grey zone. The curve levels shows within demand zone in control with supply zone not in control within the current price is 87% in daily The curve levels shows...

Hi Sants,

i just want to share my GBPUSD chart.
first, supply level is valid because taken out opposing level and the supply level taken out make demand level and price hits level go long. and now the price hits FRESH supply zone and i think price will be go down and maybe can taken out D1 and WK demand level because all the level not fresh.

my trend in GBPUSD :
MN : Down
WK : Down
D1 : Down

time to go short.

thanks
Rio
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 123 KB
from loser to be hero
  • #6,353
  • Oct 15, 2015 6:47am Oct 15, 2015 6:47am
Quoting rio cyrano
{quote} Hi Sants, i just want to share my GBPUSD chart. first, supply level is valid because taken out opposing level and the supply level taken out make demand level and price hits level go long. and now the price hits FRESH supply zone and i think price will be go down and maybe can taken out D1 and WK demand level because all the level not fresh. my trend in GBPUSD : MN : Down WK : Down D1 : Down time to go short. thanks Rio {image}
Hi Rio
Looking for short too, but theres a distraction that not allow to go short. Look at my previous chart and see that in the grey zone, there's a weekly demand zone that has been hit. The rules said, trendline will be no longer valid if HTF SnD zone is hit and opposing zone is invalid (at least 1 zone i think). thats why i cant go short at 1.5521. Perhaps the higher one at 1.5684 or 1.5833

Sants
  • #6,354
  • Oct 15, 2015 7:23am Oct 15, 2015 7:23am
Quoting Sants
{quote} Hi Rio Looking for short too, but theres a distraction that not allow to go short. Look at my previous chart and see that in the grey zone, there's a weekly demand zone that has been hit. The rules said, trendline will be no longer valid if HTF SnD zone is hit and opposing zone is invalid (at least 1 zone i think). thats why i cant go short at 1.5521. Perhaps the higher one at 1.5684 or 1.5833 Sants
Hi Sants,

yes, maybe I am wrong. However, I like the robot if there are fresh and valid area as well as the direction of the trend I will take it.
and WK levels are NOT FRESH, 3 time price hits levels. and there no Demand levels fresh at D1. and Big Picture trend is Down. and i just follow the trend.


thanks
Rio
from loser to be hero
  • #6,355
  • Edited 3:44pm Oct 15, 2015 3:31pm | Edited 3:44pm
Quoting panoramia
I am triggered long on AUDUSD, it's the first impulse to the buy side for weeks I believe, it's now making higher highs and higher lows. {image} The only thing that worries me is that price has almost made it to the D1 supply area and now bouncing off it, my long is then a bit agressive now and could be a loss, but I've been triggered so I have to let it go and see what happens and learn from it. {image}
Alfonso, I started reading the thread from the beginning. Sorry, that was long ago, but I'm curious to know something. Why did you buy here?

There are rules:
1. When the trendline is broken or one opposing zone is taken out. When this happens we are not allowed to trade in the direction of the previous trendline.
2. A Buy setup with an ascending trendline will be invalidated when we have at least 1 full candle (Open, Close, High and Low) below the trendline

Why did you sell?
Quoting panoramia
Took AUDJPY short on a H1 speedbump (continuation pattern). I drilled it down to the M30 area which was a cleaner/clearer area. That speedbump was the retest of last week low (red beads on the chart) solidly broken at 91.12, so I took the risk and so far I'm at breakeven and took some profits out of it, so whatever happens happens. {image}
  • #6,356
  • Oct 16, 2015 12:25am Oct 16, 2015 12:25am
Quoting Soundz
Great job on S&D and letting us in on how to get better at seeing and trading this style. Im trying to learn as much as I can from you, this thread and everyone getting involved. Panoramia and everyone, please keep it up!
I agree with him
  • #6,357
  • Oct 17, 2015 7:51am Oct 17, 2015 7:51am
Hello Alfonso,

I have read your thread many times and still am still confused on how to distinguish CP and peak/valley although many times you mentioned it should be obvious V or inverted V shape pattern. Are there any specific rules on how to recognize them accordingly?

Thanks
Enter Signature
  • #6,358
  • Oct 17, 2015 2:25pm Oct 17, 2015 2:25pm
Quoting empresswa29
Hello Alfonso, I have read your thread many times and still am still confused on how to distinguish CP and peak/valley although many times you mentioned it should be obvious V or inverted V shape pattern. Are there any specific rules on how to recognize them accordingly? Thanks
Same question here and also regarding the rule conom589 mentioned also:
2. A Buy setup with an ascending trendline will be invalidated when we have at least 1 full candle (Open, Close, High and Low) below the trendline

Which TF candle?Does it apply to 1M also?Obviously not but is there certain rule there also?

Many thanks.
  • #6,359
  • Oct 19, 2015 12:12am Oct 19, 2015 12:12am
I am back from 10 days of holidays, sorry if I couldn't reply to your posts before, I was a bit busy

A new live webinar will be held this week, if you have not joined any in the past you should have already received the notification to join it, else use the link below to get the link to join the webinar.

  1. SUBJECT: Live trading analysis using the sequence
  2. DATE: Wednesday 21st October 2015
  3. TIME: 9:00 AM - 11:00 AM GMT+2, CEST, right at London Open as usual
  4. LINK TO JOIN: http://www.set-and-forget.com/free_webinars

I'll try to cover all these topics:

  1. Longer term position trading
  2. We'll use the Sequence and The Realignment to locate setups
  3. How to trade with the D1 supply and demand imbalances
  4. Under which conditions we should hold a trade and how
  5. The analysis for longer term trading can be used for intraday trading, that is, you can use smaller timeframe setups to go in the direction of the bigger picture's trend, it will be higher odds than going against the current trend

You can join now, you will be notified by email 1 day and 1 hour before it starts. The webinar will be recorded as always

Have a wonderful week!
Cheers,
Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,360
  • Oct 19, 2015 12:15am Oct 19, 2015 12:15am
Quoting Pierhh
{quote} Same question here and also regarding the rule conom589 mentioned also: 2. A Buy setup with an ascending trendline will be invalidated when we have at least 1 full candle (Open, Close, High and Low) below the trendline Which TF candle?Does it apply to 1M also?Obviously not but is there certain rule there also? Many thanks.
The rule applies to ALL timeframes, price is fractal. A full OCHL candle below/above a trendline invalidates the previous imbalance UNLESS it's nested within a bigger timeframe that it's still trending in the direction of the broken trendline. Those are the rules, have always been like that.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
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