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EUR/USD: IntraDay Scalping and Short Term Swing Trading Only

  • #261
  • Oct 9, 2015 3:12am Oct 9, 2015 3:12am
Closed at -3. Probably more upside on the retrace but on a first pullback trade the PA should bounce at the EMA, any pierce through the line and coiling underneath is a possible recipe for disaster, I live to take another trade.
  • #262
  • Oct 9, 2015 3:12am Oct 9, 2015 3:12am
I find this thread very interesting.Have been exploring trading the 1 min chart for a couple weeks.The reason why is that entries seem better when one gets it right and in a volatile market one can get some very nice trades in theory.The basis for my strategy is to create a "playground" between Supply and Demand on the 1 hr chart drop this down to the 30 min chart and fine tune the levels. Then copy the chart to the 1 min chart and wait for the correct point of entry.
My only indicators are the 8 ema, this is the essential cross over for entry from low to high with an engulfing candle in an uptrend and vica versa in a down trend, 50 sma giving the trend bias and the area from supply to demand on the 1hr I divide into 3 equal parts so giving me a general feel of the market profile of the middle ground and high low extremes .I find this keeps me out of a lot of trouble quite often.
Below the chart I have the Stochastic set at 12,3,3 I only trade long when Stoch confirms with the engulfing bar from oversold (now going long) and vic vera when going short.This seems to help one to keep out of trouble as well.
My money management is very strict and never more than a 10 pip stop including spread.My targets are 2:1 or 3:1 .
I find the 30 min a very steady influence on the bigger picture.I have both the 30 min and the 1 min side by side on the screen.I have been working /$ and /Y pairs and /Y and/$ though I will only comment on /$ here as requested.
I stay away from news generally,meditate before coming the the charts and spend a lot of time waiting for the set ups to show, which they tend to do mostly between 0700 and 1000 GMT (I am residing in UK) though around 1130 often there is a nice move, I miss quite a few as well at present.My next move is to put this whole thing into a simple rule based protocol and start trading it for real, firstly on demo, then move to real once I establish consistency. Sorry for rambling a bit and happy to receive any constructive observations from all you scalping specialists.I will share a couple of trades soon as that stage is reached. Happy trading
  • #263
  • Oct 9, 2015 3:22am Oct 9, 2015 3:22am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote}Anyway glad it worked for you, seems like last couple of days it's working out for you. Awesome.
thanks to you guys, man.. after blowing half my account months ago, i only refunded it on monday and started trading from tuesday, which was the day you started this thread.. i dont scalp well and i dont have clear idea on swing trading, but i trade intraday.. just 10p or 20p tp.. so i lurked around.. seems that was a good decision..
anyway i'll ask seahorse then.. see if he will let me on.. (got the pun?)
Dont trade like me..
  • #264
  • Oct 9, 2015 3:27am Oct 9, 2015 3:27am
I use mainly limit orders, what I don't do is 'break' trade, that's enter on a break through a level or enter a stop order to go long / short on any PA break through a level.
  • #265
  • Oct 9, 2015 3:29am Oct 9, 2015 3:29am
Quoting sanvulture
{quote} thanks to you guys, man.. after blowing half my account months ago, i only refunded it on monday and started trading from tuesday, which was the day you started this thread.. i dont scalp well and i dont have clear idea on swing trading, but i trade intraday.. just 10p or 20p tp.. so i lurked around.. seems that was a good decision.. anyway i'll ask seahorse then.. see if he will let me on.. (got the pun?)
Just don't play around with your risk management, stops are there for a reason, have an exit plan on the up and downside before you enter any trade and generally you should avoid breaking your account.
  • #266
  • Oct 9, 2015 3:31am Oct 9, 2015 3:31am
Quoting KzX
Opening range 260-290 Scalping levels:
Below: 230 Above: 320-350-365
I escaped at 345, it was near 350 enough, highlighted in the morning.

Additionally, the scenario that was 'almost' filled yesterday was 'fully' completed today (charts posted).
  • #267
  • Oct 9, 2015 3:37am Oct 9, 2015 3:37am
Quoting sanvulture
{quote} thanks for the warning.. thats why i said "if only".. BTW, if you dont mind, can u teach me how u plot those levels? but if you mind, then its no problem too.. Thank you..
I think it's been posted, but I use a modified Pivot point formula, most scalpers use some sort of SR level formula, pivot points are the most popular and used for every market. Just got to find one you like. What works well for me may not work well for you. Case in point, I had to take the levels KzX posted publicly every day (from the other thread) like he does here, and then work with those numbers to make it work for me, the levels he posts are accurate and work extremely well for him, but even with him posting those every day for all of us to see, I couldn't get a solid feel for them. Sometimes there is a several pip difference in those numbers between his numbers, seahorses numbers and mine, and that could mean the difference of not taking the trade or getting stopped when you didn't want to.

There are many variations that can be used, so many that if you include the fib, gann and other variations, it could add up to dozens of types, if you google for the different types, that will get you started. But you have to find something that you understand and know why you understand it, so that you can become to trust your numbers, even when they seem to be wrong, because as you noticed, they are never exact. For example, I love seahorse's numbers, but I have no idea how he comes up with them, I know they've been working recently, but I wouldn't be able to use them personally every day, because the output doesn't make sense to me, even if I knew the formula or source, it leaves too many unanswered questions for me, even though his numbers are spot ON too. His numbers were near perfect again yesterday, but they still left a lot of the actual market movement out, maybe he has those extensions personally on his charts, I'm sure he does, but that is not the point. They work for him well, because they are his numbers. KzX's work for him, because they're his numbers and mine for me. You get the picture. Anyway there are more ways to slice the pie than you or we can imagine.

Anyway sorry to give you the run around on this answer, but I think in the end it will benefit you and anyone else that *could* blindly follow more if they tried to find something that works for them personally rather than generally for everyone.

What I think is extremely beneficial here is that we can see and compare different numbers and find a consensus, which usually means: a significant number that we all can use to trade off of right away today, funny thing is, if others see that number too and use it too, it can become even more significant for the day.
  • #268
  • Oct 9, 2015 3:38am Oct 9, 2015 3:38am
Quoting mahluus
Closed at -3. Probably more upside on the retrace but on a first pullback trade the PA should bounce at the EMA, any pierce through the line and coiling underneath is a possible recipe for disaster, I live to take another trade.
Good thing you got out at -3 quickly and efficiently.
  • #269
  • Oct 9, 2015 3:39am Oct 9, 2015 3:39am
Quoting mahluus
{quote} Just don't play around with your risk management, stops are there for a reason, have an exit plan on the up and downside before you enter any trade and generally you should avoid breaking your account.
Thanks man.. i think i learned my lesson on that.. its bcoz of that that i'm afraid to open mini lots.. i trade just 0.02,0.03 and 0.05 when i'm sure..
and ya, i cant break this account.. probably my last if i break.. Thanks..
Dont trade like me..
  • #270
  • Oct 9, 2015 3:46am Oct 9, 2015 3:46am
Welcome.
  • #271
  • Oct 9, 2015 3:46am Oct 9, 2015 3:46am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} I think it's been posted, but I use a modified Pivot point formula, most scalpers use some sort of SR level formula, pivot points are the most popular and used for every market. Just got to find one you like. What works well for me may not work well for you. Case in point, I had to take the levels KzX posted publicly every day (from the other thread) like he does here, and then work with those numbers to make it work for me, the levels he posts are accurate and work extremely well for him, but even with him posting those every day for all...
Thanks for the elobarate reply and the time u put into it.. i understand.. i'll start working on finding what works for me.. i'm sure it involves lots of reading, thats what scares me.. hahaha.. Thanks man..
Dont trade like me..
  • #272
  • Oct 9, 2015 3:49am Oct 9, 2015 3:49am
This is when you say, I'm out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #273
  • Oct 9, 2015 3:50am Oct 9, 2015 3:50am
Quoting sanvulture
{quote} Thanks man.. i think i learned my lesson on that.. its bcoz of that that i'm afraid to open mini lots.. i trade just 0.02,0.03 and 0.05 when i'm sure.. and ya, i cant break this account.. probably my last if i break.. Thanks..
It is almost impossible to trade effectively if fear (or greed) is present in your emotional state, you need to be calm both before and during your trades. This mental state will only come with experience. If you have been burned and you are always scared of losing money you will exit early before TP and tend to hold onto losers in the hope they retrace to B/E or profit. If necessary, take a break from live trading and trade a sim account to keep your skills sharp and increase your screen time, as you develop confidence in your skills and system your emotional state will follow.

Remember you are trading probability and an edge, if your risk/reward and money management is correct you will make money over the long term.

Edit: just google pivot points Sanvulture, there are a few variations on the basic calculations (fibonnacci pivots, Demark etc), use the one you like and then chart it every day and watch how price reacts at those levels. You will develop a personal feel for them before long.
  • #274
  • Oct 9, 2015 3:55am Oct 9, 2015 3:55am
Quoting KzX
This is when you say, I'm out. {image}
Or, from what I've noticed in your case "I'm in for the short now too!".

Hella difficult, putting slamming on the brakes, turning it around instantly and then driving it in the other direction. But that's what we all strive to do, or at least me. Thanks for that chart.
  • #275
  • Oct 9, 2015 3:58am Oct 9, 2015 3:58am
Quoting mahluus
{quote} It is almost impossible to trade effectively if fear (or greed) is present in your emotional state, you need to be calm both before and during your trades. This mental state will only come with experience. If you have been burned and you are always scared of losing money you will exit early before TP and tend to hold onto losers in the hope they retrace to B/E or profit. If necessary, take a break from live trading and trade a sim account to keep your skills sharp and increase your screen time, as you develop confidence in your skills and...
i had my lessons with greed.. its deadly costly.. but like u said, i exit early if the price struggles.. i need to work on that.. and i dont hold losers anymore, i use tight stops.. Thank you..
i use traditional S/R and pivot points on daily TF.. i'm using bollinger bands and EMAs though i only know the basics for them.. i planned to learn about fib this weekend.. Thanks for the reply..
Dont trade like me..
  • #276
  • Oct 9, 2015 4:03am Oct 9, 2015 4:03am
Quoting mahluus
{quote} It is almost impossible to trade effectively if fear (or greed) is present in your emotional state, you need to be calm both before and during your trades. This mental state will only come with experience. If you have been burned and you are always scared of losing money you will exit early before TP and tend to hold onto losers in the hope they retrace to B/E or profit. If necessary, take a break from live trading and trade a sim account to keep your skills sharp and increase your screen time, as you develop confidence in your skills and...
That post is worth a million dollars, have read stuff saying the same thing for years by others too, and have told others the same thing as well, but not as succinctly. To have it come across here directed personally by someone (just guessing here, that could be an ex CME or former institutional currency trader) to someone on this thread just getting his feet wet and blowing accounts, we've all done that, and many of us still do...is priceless.

And I didn't even know Demark about PPs, I've tried to use his count (like on the last trade) but the indicator for MT4 is so inconsistent I scrapped it. Better to count manually. Will look into his PP formula though, although again, it's his, not mine. (I know a lot of the Chicago traders love Demark.)
  • #277
  • Oct 9, 2015 4:05am Oct 9, 2015 4:05am
Quoting sanvulture
{quote} i had my lessons with greed.. its deadly costly.. but like u said, i exit early if the price struggles.. i need to work on that.. and i dont hold losers anymore, i use tight stops.. Thank you.. i use traditional S/R and pivot points on daily TF.. i'm using bollinger bands and EMAs though i only know the basics for them.. i planned to learn about fib this weekend.. Thanks for the reply..
Ahhhh, I understand....scalpers use those same numbers from the daily and put them over the 1min, 5min, 15min, etc...all the way up, that way you can see them being approached and how they're approached in real time.
  • #278
  • Oct 9, 2015 4:05am Oct 9, 2015 4:05am
If fib interests you, the book Fibonnacci Trading by Carolyn Boroden I found to be very good. Basically she uses a system to draw multiple retracements and extensions from various SL / SH and where there are fib level overlaps (within 1-2 pips) she will draw levels and consider trades. I have admittedly not managed to work it into my Forex system on the very short time frames I use, but i had moderate success with it when I used to trade the S&P emini - before the advent of HFTs made trading that on short time-frames next to impossible (for me anyway).
  • #279
  • Oct 9, 2015 4:12am Oct 9, 2015 4:12am
12:10 I know I said I'm out for today, but I just took a long at 275, I hesitated a minute and paid extra for it, stop at the bottom of the same 5 min candle I entered on, it's obvious which candle, I entered near the top of it, oh well. Too tempting to ignore it. As usual will trail close to BE and more.

This is my last trade today. Really.
  • #280
  • Oct 9, 2015 4:14am Oct 9, 2015 4:14am
Pipologist you are too kind

I am a South African (never been to Chicago - although I am soon to be an Australian )

My background is Index derivatives, I only crossed over to currencies after years of trading the S&P e-mini successfully and finding that gradually all my systems and PA skills didn't work as well as they used to and I was getting shaken out of positions and whipsawed more as a rule than the exception. I am not saying you cannot make money trading the e-mini, but it wasn't working for me any more.

Just my 2 cents worth: I think too many beginning traders focus on the 'magic system' that will make money. In fact it is far less about the system - after all a simple MA crossover' will work - than it is about the psychology coupled with risk and money management. Most accounts that get blown are probably on that one trade that just didn't look back, and if you had a good risk management system in place you would have saved the account.
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