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  • #941
  • Oct 2, 2015 12:45pm Oct 2, 2015 12:45pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} Aftermath of NFP. Wonder how they still can keep their job... {image} Their historic performance is also pathetic... {image} {image} {image} {image} Source: efxnews.com
that is normal. they are not gods.
As Above, So Below
  • #942
  • Oct 2, 2015 12:47pm Oct 2, 2015 12:47pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Where on the efx site did you get that trading graph? I cannot seem to find it. Very interesting stuff!
If you get the subscription you can see all the positions and whatnot, not sure if you can view these pictures without them
"Mrrraggglhlhghghlgh"
  • #943
  • Oct 2, 2015 3:04pm Oct 2, 2015 3:04pm
Quoting skenobi
{quote} If you had read my posts extensively (and you're excused if you haven't, because really, who do I think I am anyway LOL), you would've surmised that I don't really like to find "explanations" as to "why" stuff happens. {quote} Some people can make money from "expecting" stuff. Personally, I can't. {quote} I don't know. You could be right. Let's put it this way: Just because a snapshot led you to believe that demand is drying up at THAT point in time, does it mean the situation WILLl remain the same when the next bar/candle forms? If your...
Such an excellent post Skenobi. Real experience speaking for itself.

USDIDR and USDMYR almost impossible to trade these days, it's a pure disaster. Anything north of 30 bucks and it's all over the place.
  • #944
  • Oct 2, 2015 4:00pm Oct 2, 2015 4:00pm
Friday was another one of those disasters in the making. The Swissie was setting itself up for a swifty in the Asian session as was Yen and Euro.

Personally I see nothing untoward in the data to suggest the onset of extreme this or the other. A bit more nuanced perhaps when you get some of these dumps but still sound enough overall.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #945
  • Edited 9:12pm Oct 2, 2015 7:58pm | Edited 9:12pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Where on the efx site did you get that trading graph? I cannot seem to find it. Very interesting stuff!
This is their paying service. One month trial is free. Bank order information is not very much useful and i decided to cancel the subscription.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #946
  • Oct 4, 2015 7:50am Oct 4, 2015 7:50am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Aftermath of NFP. Wonder how they still can keep their job... {image} Their historic performance is also pathetic... {image} {image} {image} {image} Source: efxnews.com
LOL there's value in this (probably fake?!) order book. Fading CS and Danske straight up is a no-brainer looking at their performance. Reminds me of Brandon Lang. There might be hedging going on so one can't just judge that at face value.

I'd rather fade some born loser moves than follow a "trade of the year" dumpster.

Try fading those moves if you get them in real time and see where that gets you. Might be interesting.
Best regards, Zef
  • #947
  • Oct 4, 2015 11:00pm Oct 4, 2015 11:00pm
Quoting katrooo
{quote} Such an excellent post Skenobi. Real experience speaking for itself. USDIDR and USDMYR almost impossible to trade these days, it's a pure disaster. Anything north of 30 bucks and it's all over the place.

Spread on MYR is 500 pips (5000 points) minimum nowadays (if not more) for any amount but it's stable with the central bank very likely directing all banks under its jurisdiction (including locally incorporated foreign banks) to enforce a USD selling bias i.e. they're likely only allowed to buy USD if backed by legitimate commercial/corporate client requirements.

If that direction was not in place, USDMYR would've gone over 5 bucks a month ago.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
  • #948
  • Oct 7, 2015 7:36pm Oct 7, 2015 7:36pm
hi skenobi, thank you for all your inputs, great insight and information.
i can't find an answer to a few questions floating in my mind, maybe you can help. forex market is decentralized but how come almost all brokers quote almost the same price with very tiny difference (due to their spread policy) in an instant? i understand that the rate is an outcome of interbank deals but what procedures the rate goes through before we see it in our screens?
As Above, So Below
  • #949
  • Oct 7, 2015 8:03pm Oct 7, 2015 8:03pm
Quoting tashkent
hi skenobi, thank you for all your inputs, great insight and information. i can't find an answer to a few questions floating in my mind, maybe you can help. forex market is decentralized but how come almost all brokers quote almost the same price with very tiny difference (due to their spread policy) in an instant? i understand that the rate is an outcome of interbank deals but what procedures the rate goes through before we see it in our screens?
If you have different prices at different places, there will be arbitrage opportunities. And the market is too efficient to allow opportunities like that to exist for anything longer than a few seconds or less.

Don't worry too much about "procedures".

Just worry about making money.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
  • #950
  • Oct 7, 2015 11:22pm Oct 7, 2015 11:22pm
Quoting skenobi
{quote} If you have different prices at different places, there will be arbitrage opportunities. And the market is too efficient to allow opportunities like that to exist for anything longer than a few seconds or less. Don't worry too much about "procedures". Just worry about making money.
Hi skenobi

Quick one from me. There are levels (you called them clusters I believe), from which price rallies and they hold for very long, sometimes years. Is this due to the fact that there are still unfilled orders remaining (who is waiting that long), or did the big guys abandon their orders, once price got too far away (and stayed there), and then the consequent re-bounce from that level is "just the masses" believing in this cluster and the second rally becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy?
Is this some sort of inefficiency? These imbalances?
Could you offer your point of view on that?
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Demo only
  • #951
  • Edited 10:56pm Oct 8, 2015 12:02am | Edited 10:56pm
Quoting bg_sunny
{quote} Hi skenobi Quick one from me. There are levels (you called them clusters I believe), from which price rallies and they hold for very long, sometimes years. Is this due to the fact that there are still unfilled orders remaining (who is waiting that long),
Anything's possible.

Quoting bg_sunny
or did the big guys abandon their orders, once price got too far away (and stayed there),
So is this.

Quoting bg_sunny
and then the consequent re-bounce from that level is "just the masses" believing in this cluster and the second rally becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy?
This one's possible too. It sounds ridiculous to some people, but the market has "memory".

Quoting bg_sunny
Is this some sort of inefficiency? These imbalances?
Personally, I find labelling this thing or that thing as "inefficient" (or as anything at all, really) is not very useful to me. But if I HAVE to label or classify this, I'd call it "opportunity".


Quoting bg_sunny
Could you offer your point of view on that? {image}
Done.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
  • #952
  • Oct 8, 2015 11:12pm Oct 8, 2015 11:12pm
Quoting skenobi
{quote} Anything's possible. {quote} So is this. {quote} This one's possible too. It sounds ridiculous to some people, but the market has "memory". {quote} Personally, I find labelling this thing or that thing as "inefficient" (or as anything at all, really) is not very useful to me. But if I HAVE to label or classify this, I'd call it "opportunity". {quote} Done.
Thank you Sir.
Demo only
  • #953
  • Oct 9, 2015 7:29pm Oct 9, 2015 7:29pm
Trading half a million in volume on average I am nowhere near a big trader. And even once I am trading 50 million, I won't be moving markets or even influencing other players in the slightest..... so I am not sure if I will ever have first hand experience with this (nor do I know if any of you do, but I am still going to ask)

Am I right to assume that the only big money traders selling at the bottom in AUDUSD recently (selling positions for 70cents), are

A) longs from 2009 who bought at 60-69 cents and
B) speculative shorts targeting lower than 69 cents (the recent bottom)?

and of course those buying at 70cents are

a) fresh speculative longs (probably targeting 75-80cents or higher)
b) shorts covering from 75cents or higher


it must be tough to be the world's largest traders... constantly having to be patient through draw downs until desired target is reached

for example, there were TONS of buyers in AUDUSD around 70 cents, meaning this is the best place for big money to initiate shorts (liquidity is available), however now they have to sit through this drawdown while AUDUSD corrects to 75-80cents, before they try to take it down below 69cents and make their profits (this is all in theory, i can't predict that far ahead.. I'm just riding the long wave up to 77cents as my target)

it's as if the largest traders in the world go through cycles of handing off their positions to the other biggest traders... and these cycles go for 3-5 years at a time before the next set of large traders takes over their positions. IE the 2009 bulls in AUD are now handing their positions to the 2016 bulls... and the 2016 bulls will be handing their positions back to the 2009 bulls in 3-5 years from now...
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #954
  • Oct 12, 2015 2:07am Oct 12, 2015 2:07am
to skenobi, am i correct in assuming you believe that the method of entry (why you bought something) is worth more then actually considering risk vs reward? i have long thought about this myself. maybe you can shed some light on this, or at least give your take. the hypothesis to me at least is that "if the method is good enough the trader almost does not need to consider the risk:reward aspect of the trade".

secondly i will say that i trade several accounts. all of which are not traded in the same manner. some for example are traded via hedging and there one of the criteria for entering a trade is how the margin has reacted thus far = how much is there to trade with, in short. the other version are the accounts where i trade using a more orderflow/pa entry, there the trade considers much more how the market looks where levels are etc. both methods make about the same amount in profit but they act differently during similar market conditions, where one performs good one week the other does not and vice versa. i am still conflicted though in my mind as to which one i like trading more, therefore the question to you (above).

thank you
  • #955
  • Oct 12, 2015 5:26am Oct 12, 2015 5:26am
evilmeatball

method of entry = structure.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #956
  • Oct 12, 2015 6:17am Oct 12, 2015 6:17am
i understand that. but i would like, if possible, some ideas about why it is so.
  • #957
  • Oct 12, 2015 10:22pm Oct 12, 2015 10:22pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Trading half a million in volume on average I am nowhere near a big trader. And even once I am trading 50 million, I won't be moving markets or even influencing other players in the slightest..... so I am not sure if I will ever have first hand experience with this (nor do I know if any of you do, but I am still going to ask) Am I right to assume that the only big money traders selling at the bottom in AUDUSD recently (selling positions for 70cents), are A) longs from 2009 who bought at 60-69 cents and B) speculative shorts targeting lower than...
There are many reasons why people buy or sell, not just the ones you outlined. Being able to point to one past movement and say conclusively and authoritatively why that move happened is a nice skill to have, I'm sure. But it never made anyone any money.

Quoting Rag2RichesFX
it must be tough to be the world's largest traders... constantly having to be patient through draw downs until desired target is reached for example, there were TONS of buyers in AUDUSD around 70 cents,
If you say so. How does one even KNOW this, I wonder... unless someone TOLD you... in which case, how does that someone even know? (I'm just asking out loud. I don't really care if there's an answer.)

Quoting Rag2RichesFX
meaning this is the best place for big money to initiate shorts (liquidity is available),
huh?! Why? Just "because" there's liquidity, you assume that "big money" (whover they may be) would just think it's a best place to short? Again, if you say so. I personally don't care what big money thinks. Even tho big money have their advantages in terms of being able to affect short-term movements, Price trumps Big Money every time in the long term.

Quoting Rag2RichesFX
however now they have to sit through this drawdown while AUDUSD corrects to 75-80cents, before they try to take it down below 69cents and make their profits
Again, if you say so.

Quoting Rag2RichesFX
(this is all in theory, i can't predict that far ahead.. I'm just riding the long wave up to 77cents as my target)
Your earlier prediction or opinion (that "big money" would short at 70 cents) didn't exactly pan out either. Good for you if you've actually been long AUD since then.

Quoting Rag2RichesFX
it's as if the largest traders in the world go through cycles of handing off their positions to the other biggest traders... and these cycles go for 3-5 years at a time before the next set of large traders takes over their positions. IE the 2009 bulls in AUD are now handing their positions to the 2016 bulls... and the 2016 bulls will be handing their positions back to the 2009 bulls in 3-5 years from now...
Nice theory! Forward test it in the meantime, and let us know how it fares.

Quoting evilmeatball
to skenobi, am i correct in assuming you believe that the method of entry (why you bought something) is worth more then actually considering risk vs reward?
The way I read this question is that you think I treat considering R:R as antithetical to considering only entry method. I don't think this at all. R:R is always a consideration in conjunction to my own casual estimations of the likelihood of my Risk being hit. I just don't go out of my way to limit my trading to particular R:R ratios. e.g. I don't care of my Risk is greater than my Reward if the (estimated) likelihood of my Reward being hit first is greater. (there's more to it than this, but I'm not gonna go into details.)

This is just how I personally trade now that I'm a retail trader. I don't recommend this approach to anyone especially not to traders who think they can "trade for a living."

Quoting evilmeatball
i have long thought about this myself. maybe you can shed some light on this, or at least give your take. the hypothesis to me at least is that "if the method is good enough the trader almost does not need to consider the risk:reward aspect of the trade".
As mentioned, I will comment no further. I've explained my methodology to people before (not on this forum), but people always get uppity when their results were not up to their expectations, failing to realize that their attitudes to risk were wholly different from mine.

This thread is about institutional traders, not me. Perhaps we should stay on topic.

Quoting evilmeatball
secondly i will say that i trade several accounts. all of which are not traded in the same manner. .... both methods make about the same amount in profit but they act differently during similar market conditions, where one performs good one week the other does not and vice versa. i am still conflicted though in my mind as to which one i like trading more,
Suggestion: pick the method that fits your values and personal circumstances e.g. your time commitments to other aspects in your life.

Good luck.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
  • #958
  • Oct 13, 2015 3:00am Oct 13, 2015 3:00am
thank you. it is no problem as i make profit either way. it is just always interested to hear how somebody else does it. i like to think about why .. if i can figure it out. sometimes i can other times i cannot. well then i guess it is so
  • #959
  • Oct 13, 2015 3:45am Oct 13, 2015 3:45am
Hi,
I wonder if you can help me , Do you know if when the London market closes and the USA is on Holiday does anyone trade Fx before the Australasia and Japan markets open Ie the time when New York should had been trading ?
Thank you
Martin Phillips
  • #960
  • Edited 3:18am Oct 14, 2015 2:36am | Edited 3:18am
Quoting Martin.p
when the London market closes and the USA is on Holiday does anyone trade Fx before the Australasia and Japan markets open Ie the time when New York should had been trading ? Thank you Martin Phillips
Yes.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
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