Disliked{quote} I would say that the accounts being popped by large orders is because of traders bias of not cutting the lose. Many of the trader explorers you will see that the person has entered either in a accumulation which they were slowly losing pips and then came the big 50 to 100 pip spike against them. Use large orders is ok as long as you have a strick sl rule to go along with it. You will see many traders aim for 100 pips, but when they have floating losses they end up being 500 even 1000 pips. I have even seen a trader talk about how he has...Ignored
{quote} Yup. Not cutting losers is definitely a leading indicator of impending disaster. Though I would also say that people tend to overestimate their heat tolerance and trade too large a position only to go on tilt when things don't turn out their way.
- #43
- Sep 24, 2015 10:47pm Sep 24, 2015 10:47pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts
{quote} I agree with you. I actually lover to look at a trade explorer because the stat not only reveals much about the system, but about the trader. Look at the overall stats, but look at the drawdown this trader has. {image}
- #48
- Sep 25, 2015 12:19am Sep 25, 2015 12:19am
- Joined May 2007 | Status: MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder | 6,542 Posts
{quote}People make it seem as though because the broker take opposite trades, that is the reason why we lose... The reality is that we lose because of our lack of knowledge on how to read price action.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
- #51
- Sep 25, 2015 2:19am Sep 25, 2015 2:19am
{quote} Damn FXEZ. Don't leave me hangin'. :-( I want to hear more of your thoughts about how we 'as retail traders' could possibly bias a strategy that would otherwise be regarded as possessing no edge. I am still struggling to work out ways to ensure that the losses associated with unfilled orders are more than compensated by fill-range widening tactics.
The bar ranges (noise) fluctuate, and there is some degree of regularity that tracks to the time of day. If you think of this picture as what the future high/low range may look like, and you think of the price midpoint (H+L)/2 as an estimated future price, then a good guess is that price may oscillate up to (H+L)/2 + ATR/2 and down to (H+L)/2 - ATR/2 just based on the normal noise. So maybe if you placed your orders there you would get two fills, one below (buy) the midpoint and one above (sell) the midpoint that would offset.
Now if you take into account trends, and if you are already short, meaning price is going higher, maybe it would be wise to do something like making selling harder by only selling at a higher price like (H+L)/2 + 1 * ATR instead of (H+L)/2 + 1/2* ATR. Or you could make buying easier so buy at (H+L)/2 - ATR/4 or something like that. That's basically all I'm saying. And this isn't sharing the secrets of the universe either, just an idea that I'm starting to test and that may/may not have merit.
- #52
- Edited 3:17am Sep 25, 2015 2:44am | Edited 3:17am
- | Commercial User | Joined Apr 2013 | 4,366 Posts
{quote} Ok I'll try to make this simple, brief and explicit.
You are managing expectancy on the fly based on a current snapshot of performance and adjusting the position of future trades at the extremes of random 'noise' (namely ATR) to progressively bias your positions towards positive performance. Yes, yes and double yes. With HFT such rapid adjustments should be able to alter expectancy of an underlying zero edge system. Nice thought processes with lot's of possible opportunities. Please keep me informed of your progress.....perhaps not the secrets of the universe but I like your style.
One of the reasons that I was slow to catch on is that I tend to never interfere with a trade once executed as I am very suspect that future tampering reduces trade efficiency The approach you are discussing (capturing bias within the noise itself) is something I have never considered and has great appeal as it possibly provides a solid basis upon which subsequent trade actions can actually complement trade performance with 'on the fly' trade management via HFT.
