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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #19,621
  • Edited 7:37pm Sep 29, 2015 6:28pm | Edited 7:37pm
Quoting chess king
D.. CHART we can see a BIG level of resistance at 1.146x... if broken can be a support for 1.18xx target ... ( On the other hand 1.033x was appointed as a target for someone ) {image}
Quoting chess king
1.032x target ... is the mirror of (1.1712 - 1.1016 )= 696 pips then 1.1016 - 696 = 1.032x

Indeed,

in my observation that thick resistance area begin from 1.1330 till 1.1550 and if price can go through 1.1550/1.1600 once again probably we might see 1.18xx

However because there is more resistance to the upside than to the downside then "the path of least resistance" should be to the downside... 1.032x seem reasonable target.
  • #19,622
  • Sep 30, 2015 3:22am Sep 30, 2015 3:22am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} {quote} Indeed, in my observation that thick resistance area begin from 1.1330 till 1.1550 and if price can go through 1.1550/1.1600 once again probably we might see 1.18xx However because there is more resistance to the upside than to the downside then "the path of least resistance" should be to the downside... 1.032x seem reasonable target.

HI andexQ

I agree with your ideas. the underside is more vulnerable and only defended by a TL ... the upside have a lot of R begin 1.1330 and..and ..and .
  • #19,623
  • Oct 2, 2015 12:37am Oct 2, 2015 12:37am
Elliottwaveforex on EU

http://www.elliottwaveforex.com/2015...medium=twitter


The count fibs not so well, but possible, indeed
  • #19,624
  • Oct 2, 2015 1:37am Oct 2, 2015 1:37am
Quoting infinitus
Elliottwaveforex on EU http://www.elliottwaveforex.com/2015...medium=twitter The count fibs not so well, but possible, indeed

but:

when we assume the following count, where the whole move down is a completed impulse, where this impulse shows an extended wave 5, then this wave 5 shows a perfect wave relationship of 1.61x the length of wave 1-3

http://www.elliottwave.net/education...ts/basics5.htm

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Weekly_snapshot.png Size: 66 KB


The following count is the best-fib-ing count when it comes to detailed inter-wave-relationships. Therefore it is my main count so far. What worries me here, is the fact, that wave blue 4 now has already consumed round about the 5th fold time of the wave blue 2. It is losing more and more the right look.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_snapshot.png Size: 61 KB



The question is: are too many people expecting the Euro to drop to parity or below?

When Lara from Elliottwaveforex or my first count above is right, we may have a very high chance to see further prolonged sideways/upwards action in the times ahead.

If my main count is right, EU should drop hard soon.

From a sentiment point of view we now have around 60% EU bulls.
  • #19,625
  • Oct 2, 2015 2:06am Oct 2, 2015 2:06am
One general word about EW, fib-relationships, norm-moves


Keep in mind:

nearly all of the fib-stuff, norm-moves, etc. is empirical stuff, based only on SOME observations. You will have a hard time to find honest studies in this field, that would stand a peer-review.

When you read books about EW, it gets clear, that the authors cherry pick the best fitting examples to support their case. This is also true for all the bastardized versions of Elliott-wave.

I had conversations in the past with many traders who believed in norm-moves. When I showed them their failed "norm" moves their answer was usually like "ups, I did not tell, that is functions every time". So keep that in mind, when some confused minds tell you about things like "norm is norm" etc.

Like it or not, but the only honest source / study relating to fib-relationships is the study from Swannell (at least I was not able to find other). Even that may be prone to faults and bias, because the study was performed by using a software which was designed to identify Elliott-waves. Since we have not the source code, we can not validate the results.

All we can say, is, that the study was carried out with methodology, and sample number was fairly high.

If one of you dear readers is able to provide me more material of studies relating to fib-relationships and norm-moves, feel free to share your material here for a review.
  • #19,626
  • Edited 11:44am Oct 2, 2015 3:14am | Edited 11:44am
[quote=infinitus;8520333]{quote} but: when we assume the following count, where the whole move down is a completed impulse,

The bias is in a mess right now, but as usuall when a big event is coming and there is a contradiction between FOMC and following speeches from their Members ( the FOMC's credibility is in the dustBIN and FOMC looks more like a highway PUB). If we realize, we are at the same place that we were at last NFP.

I sent you a PM
  • #19,627
  • Oct 2, 2015 5:58am Oct 2, 2015 5:58am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} but: when we assume the following count, where the whole move down is a completed impulse, where this impulse shows an extended wave 5, then this wave 5 shows a perfect wave relationship of 1.61x the length of wave 1-3 http://www.elliottwave.net/education...ts/basics5.htm {image} The following count is the best-fib-ing count when it comes to detailed inter-wave-relationships. Therefore it is my main count so far. What worries me here, is the fact, that wave blue 4 now has already consumed round about the 5th fold time...
Totally agree in your analysis, price failed to turn this sideways neutral action in bullish trend, every temptive coulnt start the busllish trend, we will have soon the resume os bearish trend, with hard fall!
thanks for your technical analysis!you are great! cheers bro
  • #19,628
  • Oct 2, 2015 7:33am Oct 2, 2015 7:33am
Hi, fellows.

COOOLLL on NFP.
Definetly I like Forex.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #19,629
  • Oct 2, 2015 9:54am Oct 2, 2015 9:54am
maybe this from Mete: EW on EU

https://twitter.com/mtylcnr/status/6...445760/photo/1
  • #19,630
  • Oct 2, 2015 11:53am Oct 2, 2015 11:53am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
Hi, fellows. COOOLLL on NFP. Definetly I like Forex. Best D.P.
  • #19,631
  • Oct 2, 2015 1:18pm Oct 2, 2015 1:18pm
found another Elliottican

https://traderwilkinson.wordpress.co...x-elliottwave/

put him on my blogroll
  • #19,632
  • Oct 2, 2015 1:20pm Oct 2, 2015 1:20pm
BTW:

Hi friends,

hope you had a pretty good time and made some rupees


For all leaving for the weekend: wish you a nice one
  • #19,633
  • Oct 2, 2015 1:20pm Oct 2, 2015 1:20pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote}
  • #19,634
  • Oct 2, 2015 1:23pm Oct 2, 2015 1:23pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote}
Hi, bud. Glad to see you are well. How are you doing?
As to the NFP move on EU, it might be a fake one.
It is possible that the downtrend is still valid as prices moved down back, below 35 DMA.
The prices are not being held at their new highs.
Of course the trading day is still ON. We shall see.

Best,
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #19,635
  • Oct 2, 2015 1:37pm Oct 2, 2015 1:37pm
Quoting infinitus
BTW: Hi friends, hope you had a pretty good time and made some rupees For all leaving for the weekend: wish you a nice one
Thank you very much, my friend.
I hope you and your family are well.
I am very glad to hear you.

Best,
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #19,636
  • Oct 2, 2015 2:05pm Oct 2, 2015 2:05pm
The Fed Isn't Even Trying To Make Sense Any More
Submitted by http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...1002_mass1.jpg
Compare this - BULLARD SAYS HE EXPECTS STRONGER JOBS REPORTS TO COME.
To this - BULLARD SAYS SUB-200K PAYROLL GAINS MAY BECOME THE NORM?
But do not fear, these guys are on top of it!!


  • #19,637
  • Oct 2, 2015 2:08pm Oct 2, 2015 2:08pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Thank you very much, my friend. I hope you and your family are well. I am very glad to hear you. Best, D.P.

Hi Friend,

all is well and running

With Putin kicking asses I feel very well

He is a brilliant mind
  • #19,638
  • Oct 2, 2015 2:17pm Oct 2, 2015 2:17pm
Volkswagen: A Decade Of Deception - Full Chronology

what a shame
  • #19,639
  • Oct 2, 2015 2:27pm Oct 2, 2015 2:27pm
Quoting infinitus
. If one of you dear readers is able to provide me more material of studies relating to fib-relationships and norm-moves, feel free to share your material here for a review.
No one?
  • #19,640
  • Oct 2, 2015 2:34pm Oct 2, 2015 2:34pm
Quoting xandi
{quote} Totally agree in your analysis, price failed to turn this sideways neutral action in bullish trend, every temptive coulnt start the busllish trend, we will have soon the resume os bearish trend, with hard fall! thanks for your technical analysis!you are great! cheers bro

Hi Xandi,

good to see you around

Indeed, price is not able to hold above the roughly 1220 level for a long time. Even this devastating NFP can only make the price jump for a short time.

When I saw the numbers I thought, that price would make it at least towards the 1370 level or to the 1400 round number - but you see what happened......

For the weekend I think they may park the EU around 1210-1220 to tease us a bit.

From an EW point of view, the whole upwards action since the 1.04 low is corrective in nature
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