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Let's Trade Options

  • #10,881
  • Oct 1, 2015 2:29pm Oct 1, 2015 2:29pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} did not fill those UVXY bear puts today, too bad, but have a stack VXX bear put verts out to Oct & Oct4, need a dip to VXX $20, not so far-fetched if the SnP will make a run to $200+ over the next week. No fill on HYG trade above....no screen time at all these days, no internet at all during the day, have to put on trades in pre-market & hope for the best....
No screen time/hope for the best is pretty much me every day of the week ... . At least I can't sit around and watch price dance at the mid ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,882
  • Oct 2, 2015 2:25am Oct 2, 2015 2:25am
Rosedale, my hometown....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,883
  • Oct 2, 2015 7:40am Oct 2, 2015 7:40am
What a HUGE miss on NFP... /NQ lost 70 points in 5 minutes...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #10,884
  • Oct 2, 2015 12:01pm Oct 2, 2015 12:01pm
Quoting StrayDog
What a HUGE miss on NFP... /NQ lost 70 points in 5 minutes...
AND BOUNCED BACK! BAD NEWS=GOOD NEWS! The Fed can never hike the ffr now! Bring back irrational exuberance....etc etc....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,885
  • Oct 2, 2015 1:18pm Oct 2, 2015 1:18pm
check out solar stocks today.......US rig count numbers keep sliding....if the superpower dick-measuring contest around Syria gets crazy, oil will be making big moves north ..... solar names will follow
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,886
  • Oct 2, 2015 4:51pm Oct 2, 2015 4:51pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} AND BOUNCED BACK! BAD NEWS=GOOD NEWS! The Fed can never hike the ffr now! Bring back irrational exuberance....etc etc....
F'in insanity, but I'm largely fine with it, weirdly enough ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,887
  • Oct 2, 2015 6:39pm Oct 2, 2015 6:39pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} F'in insanity, but I'm largely fine with it, weirdly enough ... .
prolly just level-jump back to the upper range, SPY $202-$212 - what I had thought would happen after the Sept FOMC can kick & what I am set up for.....at least for October, anyways...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,888
  • Edited 9:37pm Oct 2, 2015 8:56pm | Edited 9:37pm
AAPL ER 10/27
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,889
  • Oct 4, 2015 11:34pm Oct 4, 2015 11:34pm
Saudis cut in Asia, wti futures up a bit...

http://www.ibloomberg.net/saudi-arab...pec-price-war/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,890
  • Oct 4, 2015 11:49pm Oct 4, 2015 11:49pm
YUM announces tomorrow after market close, so gonna try and get an iron condor on: Oct 16th 72.5/74.5/89/91 for a .46 credit.

Assuming that index ETF volatility doesn't get an uptick Monday/Tuesday, will look to play MON, which is on 10/7 before market open.

Looking forward into the week of Oct 12th: NFLX, GOOG.

Not gonna dick around with sub-35 IVR index ETF plays this quarter; best to be patient and wait for a vol spike in SPY/IWM/QQQ/DIA, when I can load up to my heart's content ... . In the meantime, going to get some of my powder wet ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,891
  • Oct 4, 2015 11:53pm Oct 4, 2015 11:53pm
Quoting The Fool
Saudis cut in Asia, wti futures up a bit... http://www.ibloomberg.net/saudi-arab...pec-price-war/
That's a good thing ... . Got tired of attempting to play USO, but keeping a watchful eye on other petro plays (OIH, XLE, XOP, etc.) to see if some high vol premium selling play with a bit of juice in it emerges ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,892
  • Oct 4, 2015 11:59pm Oct 4, 2015 11:59pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} That's a good thing ... . Got tired of attempting to play USO, but keeping a watchful eye on other petro plays (OIH, XLE, XOP, etc.) to see if some high vol premium selling play with a bit of juice in it emerges ... .
The other commodity I'm keeping an eye on is gold. GLD doesn't have the volatility in it I'd like right now, but GDXJ is on the verge of having enough to suit my tastes ... . This run-up post-NFPs in XAUUSD looks like it could quickly wear thin on renewed Greenback strength ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #10,893
  • Oct 5, 2015 12:11am Oct 5, 2015 12:11am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
YUM announces tomorrow after market close, so gonna try and get an iron condor on: Oct 16th 72.5/74.5/89/91 for a .46 credit.... .
I don't like the spreads on YUM for a credit spread, but I could see trying to get into a post-ER run - kind of a repeat of the April action....with Oct2 and Oct3 options iv elevated, I might try a cheap Oct2/3 or Oct3/4 diagonal - the idea would be to get in otm calls super cheap and catch a runup in the following week, the risk would be a big move that puts the short leg itm in the front week....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,894
  • Oct 5, 2015 12:26am Oct 5, 2015 12:26am
NFLX kitty lookin good for a cashout on ER day, just need the iv to stay juicy, in this for 5c + comms & looking for a 10-bag net out
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,895
  • Edited 12:52am Oct 5, 2015 12:33am | Edited 12:52am
always hard to tell but my gut is we are gonna see some coordinated supply manipulation in the coming year....add that to potential epic shitstorm around Syria and it may be time to look at long oil plays.....to be safe I would try again to position for a confluence with 2016 spring/summer demand highs

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-ru...033149156.html

looking for wti $60 in Q2, $1, 3month USO diag safe to $65
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,896
  • Oct 5, 2015 1:22am Oct 5, 2015 1:22am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Not gonna dick around with sub-35 IVR index ETF plays this quarter; best to be patient and wait for a vol spike in SPY/IWM/QQQ/DIA, when I can load up to my heart's content ... . In the meantime, going to get some of my powder wet ... .
Have a good week, ZS --- I just have SPY $178/$175 Nov1 puts, in for $0.60 credit, looking for a dip to 15c debit out this week....looking like SnP safe below $185? -- if we dip I will sell similar put spreads, on the long side call me crazy yes but I still think we could see a run to 2100 or better in Q4....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,897
  • Oct 5, 2015 3:17am Oct 5, 2015 3:17am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} FILLED, also filled a Oct/Oct4 VXX $20/$19.5 puts diag for a nickel...... Ima get me that vix dump if it kills me, & it might.....
well, we all gotta die sometime, red......but I hear that train....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,898
  • Oct 5, 2015 3:41am Oct 5, 2015 3:41am
natgas collapse, longs are tempting....no, not really
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,899
  • Oct 5, 2015 3:48am Oct 5, 2015 3:48am
risk/reward.....hmmm.....big risk there would be no reward....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10,900
  • Oct 5, 2015 8:27am Oct 5, 2015 8:27am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} AND BOUNCED BACK! BAD NEWS=GOOD NEWS! The Fed can never hike the ffr now! Bring back irrational exuberance....etc etc....
Yeah man, the famous "V" reversal, wet dream of any bull... Well, that NFP was a very nice gift for them.
Pity I used just the down move... totally ignoring the up move, right before my eyes.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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