GBPJPY is proceeding with downtrend and as long as the H5 holds (189.00) 177.40 is the target. Looking at the chart we can see that the move is already happening and the target is L5. Meanwhile H4 chart is showing a zig zag downtrend and the first support is 181.60 with next support zone at 180.35-00. Have in mind that we are looking at mid term setup, so for all who are holding shorts from 187.xx zone, it is a good sign as the price is behaving technically valid. POC for next pullback comes at 184.10-30 (DPP, previous 5-touch bottom,38.2) and X-cross and H3 are giving the price a strong resistance at 184.90. So mid-term shorts are in profit while short-term traders could find now moment sellers at POC with 180.35-00 initial target. Any H4 close or momentum break below 188.00 will target 177.40, so the valid breakout trading should include either Breakout-Retest setup or valid BPC pattern ( Breakout-Pullback-Continuation ) on H1 timeframe.
NZDUSD pair is correlated to Chinese markets and China A50 index and any turmoil is reflected on the pair. Weak data reflects at the price and as I analyzed it earlier NZDUSD is sold on rallies. Next fade could come soon as we can spot a strong POC which could reject the price.
POC comes at 0.6410-30 as we see a confluence of historical sellers ( blue rectangles ), H3, 88.6 deep fib retracement and X cross. Initially NZDUSD is targeting 0.6295 zone and if H4 candle closes below 0.6295 (L4 camarilla) then Breakout-Pullback-Continuation pattern should target 0.6250 and 0.6220. Have in mind that H4 camarilla pivot needs to hold ( 0.6480 ) for the price to remain bearish.
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Thanks Lukis! Welcome back!
As for AUD/USD...7050 was broken it might be only due to China and copper correlation but we need to know tomorrow reaction. If it stays above 7050 we might see 7200 again. NZD should be rejected but it moves in correlation to AUD ( hard/soft commodities )
As you could read in my previous GBPUSD analysis, the pair has dropped straight to target even proceeding to next level of support - 1.5105 zone. The latest estimate of British 2nd quarter growth showed that economy grew at a pace of 2.6 % and that could still give some validity to a possible hike. Traders are also eyeing NFP data tomorrow and a lower then estimated number ( 202K ) may delay US rate hike.
Technically GBPUSD dipped to 1.5105 zone and we can see that it has made a double bottom and bullish divergence. That shows a POC in 1.5090-1.5100 zone and if the price rejects , while holding above 1.5090 we might see 1.5330 which is the confluence target of WPP, H3 and X cross. X cross shows an intersection of historical buyers ( now sellers ) and inner trend line. Have in mind that this is a counter trend analysis/setup that shows a possible exhaustion of sellers at the confluence zone